CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 15-05-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -14.05 19869.85 -0.07%

TOPIX -0.71 1580.00 -0.04%

Hang Seng +215.25 25371.59 +0.86%

CSI 300 +13.81 3399.19 +0.41%

Euro Stoxx 50 +4.36 3641.88 +0.12%

FTSE 100 +18.98 7454.37 +0.26%

DAX +36.63 12807.04 +0.29%

CAC 40 +11.98 5417.40 +0.22%

DJIA +85.33 20981.94 +0.41%

S&P 500 +11.42 2402.32 +0.48%

NASDAQ +28.44 6149.68 +0.46%

S&P/TSX +91.59 15629.47 +0.59%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,0977 +0,42%

GBP/USD $1,2896 +0,09%

USD/CHF Chf0,996 -0,50%

USD/JPY Y113,59 +0,22%

EUR/JPY Y124,70 +0,64%

GBP/JPY Y146,48 +0,30%

AUD/USD $0,7413 +0,36%

NZD/USD $0,6882 +0,38%

USD/CAD C$1,3631 -0,59%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) April 1.9%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) April -3.0%

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index March 0.2%

06:45 France CPI, y/y (Finally) April 1.1% 1.2%

06:45 France CPI, m/m (Finally) April 0.6% 0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) April 3.6% 3.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) April 17.9% 17%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) April 0.4% 0.0%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) April 0.4% 0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y April 1.8% 2.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y April 3.1% 3.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m April 0.3% 0.5%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y April 2.3% 2.6%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m April 0.4% 0.4%

09:00 Eurozone Trade balance unadjusted March 17.8

09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment May 26.3

09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Revised) Quarter I 1.8% 1.7%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Revised) Quarter I 0.5% 0.5%

09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment May 19.5 22

09:00 U.S. IEA Monthly Report

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts April 1215 1260

12:30 U.S. Building Permits April 1267 1274

13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization April 76.1% 76.3%

13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) April 0.5% 0.3%

13:15 U.S. Industrial Production YoY April 1.5%

15:30 Eurozone ECB's Nowotny Speaks

17:00 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks

22:45 New Zealand PPI Input (QoQ) Quarter I 1%

22:45 New Zealand PPI Output (QoQ) Quarter I 1.5%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders March 1.5% 2.1%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y April 5.6% 0.6%

The main US stock indices grew moderately on Monday, as rising oil prices stimulated shares of commodity companies, and investors ignored the consequences of global cyberattacks.

Oil prices rose significantly, reaching the highest level in more than three weeks, after Saudi Arabia and Russia supported the extension of the agreement to reduce oil production by nine months. In a joint statement by the energy ministers of the two countries, it was noted that Russia and Saudi Arabia, at a meeting in Vienna on May 24-25, will be offered to extend the agreement on reducing oil production by April 1, 2018. The issue of extending the agreement will be discussed at a ministerial meeting of the monitoring committee on May 24, and then at a meeting of OPEC and countries outside the cartel, on May 25

In addition, the confidence of builders in the market of newly built single-family homes increased by two points in May to a level of 70 according to the index from the National Association of Housing Companies / Wells Fargo Market Index (HMI), which was another sign that the housing market Continues to strengthen. This is the second highest indicator of HMI since the recession. The index, reflecting the expected sales in the next six months, jumped four points to 79, and the index, determining current sales conditions, increased by 2 points to 76. Meanwhile, the component measuring the movement of buyers fell by 1 point to 51.

Most components of the DOW index recorded a rise (20 out of 30). More shares fell shares Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ, -1.18%). The leader of growth was the shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, + 2.91%).

All sectors of the S & P index finished trading in positive territory. The growth leader was the conglomerate sector (+ 1.8%).

At closing:

DJIA + 0.41% 20,982.73 +86.12

Nasdaq + 0.46% 6.149.67 +28.44

S & P + 0.48% 2.402.32 +11.42

In a further sign that the housing market continues to strengthen, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose two points in May to a level of 70 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the second highest HMI reading since the downturn.

"This report shows that builders' optimism in the housing market is solidifying, even as they deal with higher building material costs and shortages of lots and labor," said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas.

"The HMI measure of future sales conditions reached its highest level since June 2005, a sign of growing consumer confidence in the new home market," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. "Especially as existing home inventory remains tight, we can expect increased demand for new construction moving forward."

EURUSD:1.0800 (EUR 465m) 1.0850 (385m) 1.0875 (720m) 1.0900 (213m) 1.0930 (586m) 1.0950 (2.03bln) 1.1000 (477m) 1.1050 (720m)

USDJPY: 112.90-113.00 (USD 1.1bln) 113.30-40 (398m) 113.50 (220m) 113.75 (250m) 114.00 (370m) 114.25 (300m)

GBPUSD: 1.2925-35 (GBP 210m)

AUDUSD: 0.7425 (AUD 303m)

NZDUSD: 0.7000 (NZD 195m)

Business activity leveled off in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

The headline general business conditions index fell six points to -1.0. The new orders index dropped to -4.4,

suggesting a small decline in orders, and the shipments index edged down to 10.6, indicating that shipments increased at a slightly slower pace than in April. Labor market indicators pointed to a modest increase in both

employment and hours worked, and input prices and selling prices rose at a more moderate pace. Indexes assessing the six-month outlook were close to last month's levels, and continued to convey a high degree of optimism about future conditions.

U.S. stock-index futures were flat as optimism over a rally in oil prices was offset by concerns over a massive cyber attack that locked up 200,000 computers in more than 150 countries.

Stocks:

Nikkei 19,869.85 -14.05 -0.07%

Hang Seng 25,371.59 +215.25 +0.86%

Shanghai 3,090.23 +6.72 +0.22%

S&P/ASX 5,838.40 +1.50 +0.03%

FTSE 7,446.18 +10.79 +0.15%

CAC 5,399.25 -6.17 -0.11%

DAX 12,743.61 -26.80 -0.21%

Crude $49.43 (+3.32%)

Gold $1,235.80 (+0.66%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Upgrades:

Cisco Systems (CSCO) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan

Starbucks (SBUX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank

Downgrades:

Tesla (TSLA) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley

Other:

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.0950 1.0985 1.1000 1.1030 1.1050 1.1080 1.1100

Bids: 1.0920 1.0900 1.0880 1.0850 1.0830 1.0820 1 .0800

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2935 1.2950 1.2965 1.2980-85 1.3000 1.3020 1.3050

Bids: 1.2900 1.2875-80 1.2850 1.2830 1.2800 1.2785 1.2750

EUR/JPY

Offers: 124.50 124.80 125.00 125.30 125.50

Bids: 124.00 123.80 123.50 123.30 123.00

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8480-85 0.8500 0.8520 0.8550

Bids: 0.8450 0.8425 0.8400 0.8380-85 0.8365 0.8350

USD/JPY

Offers: 113.80-85 114.00 114.20 114.35 114.50 114.70 115.00

Bids: 113.30 113.00 112.80 112.45-50 112.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7425-30 0.7450-55 0.7480 0.7500

Bids: 0.7400 0.7385 0.7370 0.7350 0.7330-35 0.7300

• Cyber attack not limited to windows xp, numbers using xp in national health service have dropped

• Britain has a 4.2 billion pound spend on it, extra 50 million pounds for cyber security over course of the spending review

• Central Bank should be careful about its actions on forex market

• Supports cbank policy on rouble rate

• No significant damage to Russia from ransomware cyber attack

• Malware created by intelligence services can backfire on its creators

• Rise in tax revenues points to pick-up in economic activity

• Rising budget deficit trend will become more moderate as economic activity picks up, temporary measures end

• Budget deficit was wider in first four months of year due to steps to support economic growth

• Says we do not need exchange rate appreciation which would prove unsustainable

• Rise of excess demand is still reasonable compared with 2008

• Reiterates does not see much room for real exchange rate to appreciate

• Effect of excess demand on core-2 inflation is less intense, likely because of imports

• RON currency developments in q1 could barely be called depreciation

• Sees inflation at 3.4 pct at end-q1 2019

• Inflation will re-enter target margin in q4 2017

In April 2017, the Italian consumer price index increased by 0.4% on monthly basis and by 1.9% compared with April 2016 (up from +1.4% in March). The flash estimate was +1.8%.

In April, the speed up of the annual rate of change of All items index was mainly due to prices of Regulated energy products (+5.7%, from -1.2% in the previous month), to which contributed both Electric energy (+5.4%, from -1.0% in March) and Natural gas (+5.9%, from -1.4%), and also to prices of Services related to transport (+5.5%, up from +2.5% in the previous month).

Excluding energy and unprocessed food, core inflation was +1.1%, up from +0.7% in March; excluding energy the inflation was +1.3% (up from +1.2% in the previous month).

EURUSD:1.0800 (EUR 465m) 1.0850 (385m) 1.0875 (720m) 1.0900 (213m) 1.0930 (586m) 1.0950 (2.03bln) 1.1000 (477m) 1.1050 (720m)

USDJPY: 112.90-113.00 (USD 1.1bln) 113.30-40 (398m) 113.50 (220m) 113.75 (250m) 114.00 (370m) 114.25 (300m)

GBPUSD: 1.2925-35 (GBP 210m)

AUDUSD: 0.7425 (AUD 303m)

NZDUSD: 0.7000 (NZD 195m)

The total index of producer and import prices decreased by 0.2 percent in April 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.1 points (December 2015 = 100 basis).

The decline is primarily due to lower prices for petroleum products and machinery. Compared with April 2016, the price level of the total supply of domestic and imported products rose by 0.8 percent. This is evident from the figures of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The lower prices for machines, watches and scrap were responsible for the decline in the producer price index compared to the previous month.

• Decision to change Poland's outlook based on reduced risks of loose fiscal policy, with headline fiscal balance adhering to 3% of gdp limit

• Affirmation of Poland's rating is also supported by country's institutional strength, limited vulnerability to domestic, external shocks

• Primary driver behind outlook change on Poland's govt issuer rating is expectation that downside risks to fiscal stance are abating

• Needs to reduce cost of financing for belt and road

• Needs to set up mechanism for policy coordination for belt and road

• Says belt and road initiative needs to reject protectionism, avoid fragmentation

• Macroeconomics statistics used for inflation targeting one "significant limiting factor" to forecast improvement

• Monthly CPI data would improve bank's forecasting ability

• Most likely scenario is for the OCR to remain stable for some time, though "uncertainty remains high

China's industrial production and retail sales growth decelerated more-than-expected in April reflecting weak foreign demand and domestic spending at the start of second quarter, data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, cited by rttnews.

Industrial production expanded 6.5 percent year-on-year in April, weaker than the 7.6 percent rise in March. Economists had forecast a 7 percent increase.

Likewise, retail sales growth eased to 10.7 percent from 10.9 percent in March. Sales were forecast to climb 10.8 percent.

During January to April, fixed asset investment excluding rural areas increased 8.9 percent compared to 9.2 percent growth in three months to March. Economists had forecast 9.1 percent expansion.

For the March 2017 quarter, compared with the December 2016 quarter (seasonally adjusted):

• The total volume of retail sales rose 1.5 percent.

• Nine of the 15 industries had higher sales volumes.

• The motor-vehicle and parts retailing industry had record increases in both sales volume and value.

• The total value of retail sales rose 2.6 percent.

Europe's benchmark stock index managed to squeeze out a small gain after a choppy session on Friday, with an advance for French media company Vivendi SA and U.K. drug giant AstraZeneca PLC helping to push the benchmark higher for the week.

U.S. stocks closed slightly lower on Friday to record their first weekly retreat in nearly a month as investors weighed an uncertain political environment stemming from President Donald Trump's firing of former Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey.

Asian stocks opened largely higher Monday as investors continued to shake off reasons to worry. Over the weekend, North Korea tested a new type of missile, and a global cyberattack hit computers in business, government and health care. But regional equities strength has persisted in recent weeks despite concerns including North Korea and China's economy, and continued Monday amid signs of investor hope regarding China.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1056 (7669)

$1.1002 (4155)

$1.0969 (3827)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0929

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0840 (4293)

$1.0772 (5115)

$1.0688 (6169)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 83026 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (7737);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 89994 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (6169);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.08 versus 1.08 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 12

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3201 (2359)

$1.3103 (2705)

$1.3005 (3728)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2905

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2794 (2095)

$1.2697 (1980)

$1.2598 (1553)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 33526 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3728);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 35324 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3061);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.05 versus 1.06 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 12

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.