CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 17-05-2017

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 48.96 -0.22%

Gold 1,261.20 +0.20%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -104.94 19814.88 -0.53%

TOPIX -8.41 1575.82 -0.53%

Hang Seng -42.31 25293.63 -0.17%

CSI 300 -18.68 3409.97 -0.54%

Euro Stoxx 50 -57.06 3584.83 -1.57%

FTSE 100 -18.56 7503.47 -0.25%

DAX -172.92 12631.61 -1.35%

CAC 40 -88.21 5317.89 -1.63%

DJIA -372.82 20606.93 -1.78%

S&P 500 -43.64 2357.03 -1.82%

NASDAQ -158.64 6011.23 -2.57%

S&P/TSX -269.65 15273.68 -1.73%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1164 +0,75%

GBP/USD $1,2976 +0,48%

USD/CHF Chf0,9782 -0,77%

USD/JPY Y110,71 -2,15%

EUR/JPY Y123,60 -1,38%

GBP/JPY Y143,65 -1,67%

AUD/USD $0,7435 +0,15%

NZD/USD $0,6944 +0,86%

USD/CAD C$1,3584 -0,16%

01:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation May 4.1%

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate April 5.9% 5.9%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed April 60.9 5

07:50 Eurozone ECB's Yves Mersch Speaks

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) April 1.7% 2.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) April -1.8% 1%

11:30 Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

12:30 Eurozone ECB's Yves Mersch Speaks

12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases March 38.84

12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1918 1960

12:30 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey May 22 19.5

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 236 240

14:00 U.S. Leading Indicators April 0.4% 0.4%

17:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

17:15 U.S. FOMC Member Mester Speaks

22:45 New Zealand Visitor Arrivals April -0.2%

Major US stock indices fell significantly on Wednesday, as investors fled from risky assets amid uncertainty about the ability of US President Trump to implement tax and regulatory reform.

Reports that Trump asked FBI director Komi to stop the investigation into the former national security adviser raised the question of whether Trump tried to intervene in the federal investigation. In addition, today the congressman from Texas Al Green has already called on colleagues to announce Trump impeachment.

Oil prices rose by about 1%, helped by a positive report from the US Energy Ministry, which pointed to a drop in oil reserves, and gasoline and distillates. Additional support for oil was provided by the widespread weakening of the US dollar. The US Energy Ministry said that during the week of May 6-12, oil reserves fell by 1.8 million barrels to 520.8 million barrels. Analysts on average expected a drop in inventories at 2.283 million barrels. Oil reserves in the Cushing terminal increased by 35,000 barrels to 66.3 million barrels. The gasoline reserves decreased by 413,000 barrels to 240.7 million barrels.

Most components of the DOW index recorded a decline (25 out of 30). Most fell shares of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS, -5.27%). The leader of growth was UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH, + 0.57%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P index finished trading in the red. The conglomerate sector fell most of all (-2.9%). Growth was demonstrated only the utilities sector (+ 0.1%).

At closing:

DJIA -1.77% 20,609.28 -370.47

Nasdaq -2.57% 6,011.24 -158.63

S & P -1.81% 2,357.32 -43.35

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 520.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week, but are above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels last week but are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.6 million barrels last week but are in the lower half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 4.3 million barrels last week.

EURUSD: 1.0965 (EUR 650m) 1.1000 (1bln ) 1.1030-35 (898m) 1.1100 (1.2bln) 1.1275 (438m)

USDJPY: 112.90-00 (USD 635m) 113.50 (297m) 114.00 (231m)

EURGBP: 0.8435 (224m) 0.8630 (220m)

AUDUSD: 0.7300 (AUD 412m) 0.7400 (461m) 0.7430-40 (667m) 0.7470 (257m)

USDCAD: 1.3600 (USD 1.2bln) 1.3800 (980m)

EURJPY: 123.50 (EUR 266m)

NZDUSD: 0.7000 (NZD 248m)

U.S. stock-index futures fell amid concerns that a fresh controversy around President Donald Trump could derail his ambitious pro-growth agenda.

Stocks:

Nikkei 19,814.88 -104.94 -0.53%

Hang Seng 25,293.63 -42.31 -0.17%

Shanghai 3,104.74 -8.22 -0.26%

S&P/ASX 5,786.03 -64.49 -1.10%

FTSE 7,508.84 -13.19 -0.18%

CAC 5,371.67 -34.43 -0.64%

DAX 12,753.13 -51.40 -0.40%

Crude $48.82 (+0.33%)

Gold $1,250.90 (+1.17%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Home Depot (HD) target raised to $175 from $154 at Telsey Advisory Group

Walt Disney (DIS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie

Manufacturing sales increased 1.0% to a record $53.9 billion in March, reflecting higher sales in the transportation equipment and food industries.

Overall, sales were up in 16 of 21 industries, representing 71% of the Canadian manufacturing sector. Sales of durable goods rose 1.3% to $28.4 billion, while sales of non-durable goods increased 0.7% to $25.4 billion.

In constant dollars, manufacturing sales in volume terms rose 0.2%.

Sales in the transportation equipment industry rose 2.1% to $11.1 billion in March, following two months of declines. The increase was the result of gains in the motor vehicle (+4.5%) and the motor vehicle parts (+1.8%) industries, reflecting higher volumes and prices. After removing the effect of price changes, sales in volume terms increased 3.1% and 0.5% respectively in these industries in March.

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.1130 1.1150 1.1180 1.1200 1.1260 1.1300

Bids: 1.1080 1.1065 1.1050 1.1030 1.1000 1.10980 1.0960 1.0920 1.0900

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2935 1.2950 1.2965 1.2980-85 1.3000 1.3020 1.3050

Bids: 1.2900 1.2875-80 1.2850 1.2830 1.2800 1.2785 1.2750

EUR/JPY

Offers: 125.00 125.30 125.50 125.80 126.00 126.50

Bids: 124.60 124.30 124.00 123.80 123.50

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8600 0.8620-25 0.8655-60 0.8680 0.8700

Bids: 0.8565 0.8550 0.8535 0.8500-10 0.8480-85 0.8450

USD/JPY

Offers: 112.60 112.80 113.00 113.30 113.60 113.80-85 114.00

Bids: 112.20 112.00 111.80 111.50 111.30 111.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7440 0.7450-55 0.7480 0.7500

Bids: 0.7400 0.7385 0.7370 0.7350 0.7330-35 0.7300

• Investment intentions have also edged higher, consistent with modest growth in spending over year ahead

• Continues to share intelligence with the United States

• Working with the United State and others on the terrorist threat is important to maintaining national security

Euro area annual inflation was 1.9% in April 2017, up from 1.5% in March. In April 2016 the rate was -0.2%. European Union annual inflation was 2.0% in April 2017, up from 1.6% in March. A year earlier the rate was -0.2%. These figures come from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. The lowest annual rates were registered in Romania (0.6%), Ireland (0.7%) and Slovakia (0.8%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia (3.6%), Lithuania (3.5%) and Latvia (3.3%). Compared with March 2017, annual inflation fell in six Member States, remained stable in three and rose in nineteen. The largest upward impacts to euro area annual inflation came from fuels for transport (+0.39 percentage points), package holidays (+0.12 pp) and heating oil (+0.11 pp), while telecommunication (-0.11 pp), garments (-0.08 pp) and bread & cereals (-0.05 pp) had the biggest downward impacts.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.4% including bonuses, and by 2.1% excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.1% including bonuses, but fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between October to December 2016 and January to March 2017, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people fell, and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) also fell.

There were 31.95 million people in work, 122,000 more than for October to December 2016 and 381,000 more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.8%, the highest since comparable records began in 1971.

There were 1.54 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 53,000 fewer than for October to December 2016 and 152,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.6%, down from 5.1% for a year earlier and the lowest since 1975.

In March 2017 seasonally-adjusted data, compared to February 2017, increased by 4.0% for outgoing flows while they were stationary for incoming flows. Exports increased for both areas: +6.5% for non EU countries and +2.1% for EU countries. The stationary of imports is the result of an increase for non EU countries (+0.4%) and a drop for EU countries (-0.3%). Over the last three months, seasonally-adjusted data, in comparison with the previous three months, showed a growth of 3.0% for exports and of 3.3% for imports.

In March 2017, compared with the same month of the previous year, exports and imports increased (+14.5% and +16.3% respectively). Outgoing flows increased by 14.1% for EU countries and by 15.1% for non EU countries. Incoming flows increased by 14.7% for EU area and by 19.0% for non EU area. The trade balance in March amounted to +5,4 billion Euros (+1,250 million Euros for EU area and +4,168 million Euros for non EU countries).

EURUSD: 1.0965 (EUR 650m) 1.1000 (1bln ) 1.1030-35 (898m) 1.1100 (1.2bln) 1.1275 (438m)

USDJPY: 112.90-00 (USD 635m) 113.50 (297m) 114.00 (231m)

EURGBP: 0.8435 (224m) 0.8630 (220m)

AUDUSD: 0.7300 (AUD 412m) 0.7400 (461m) 0.7430-40 (667m) 0.7470 (257m)

USDCAD: 1.3600 (USD 1.2bln) 1.3800 (980m)

EURJPY: 123.50 (EUR 266m)

NZDUSD: 0.7000 (NZD 248m)

Producer output prices rose 1.4 percent in the March 2017 quarter, while input prices rose 0.8 percent, Stats NZ said today.

In the March quarter, producer output prices were influenced by higher prices received for dairy products, while higher crude oil prices pushed up the input costs at oil refineries.

In the year to the March 2017 quarter, producer output prices increased 4.1 percent, and input prices increased 4.2 percent.

"The prices paid by fuel manufacturers were up 43 percent in the year, mainly due to higher crude oil prices," business prices manager Sarah Williams said. In March 2016, the prices fuel manufacturers paid were at the lowest level since the June 2003 quarter. This industry produces refined fuels that are used by many other industries.

Japan's industrial production declined less than initially estimated in March, latest figures from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, cited by rttnews.

Industrial production fell 1.9 percent month-over-month in March instead of a 2.1 percent decrease reported earlier. In February, production had risen 3.2 percent.

Shipments dropped 0.8 percent over the month, slower than the 1.1 percent decrease seen in the flash data published on April 28. At the same time, inventories grew 1.5 percent, revised down slightly from 1.6 percent.

On a yearly basis, industrial production growth eased to 3.5 percent in March from 4.7 percent in February.

The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia both rose 0.5% in the March quarter 2017. The WPI, seasonally adjusted, has recorded quarterly wages growth in the range of 0.4% to 0.6% for the last twelve quarters (from June quarter 2014).

The Private sector rose 0.5% and the Public sector rose 0.6%, seasonally adjusted.

The rises in indexes at the industry level (in original terms) ranged from 0.1% for Administrative and support services to 0.9% for Education and training.

The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia both rose 1.9% through the year to the March quarter 2017.

Rises in the original indexes through the year to the March quarter 2017 at the industry level ranged from 0.6% for Mining to 2.3% for Public administration and safety, Education and training and Health care and social assistance.

• Negative outlook on Australia reflects view that if downside risks to government revenue materialize, then budget deficits could persist for several years

• Potential for wage growth and inflation to remain low remains a downside risk to the government's current projections

• Expect fiscal deficits to widen again in the next couple of years

• Continue to think that budget surpluses could remain elusive beyond fiscal 2021

• Believe that balance of risks to government revenues remains negative

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1199 (6277)

$1.1159 (7561)

$1.1134 (4107)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1109

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1055 (278)

$1.1013 (335)

$1.0954 (1899)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 82289 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (7561);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 91073 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (6229);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 16

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3202 (2317)

$1.3104 (2763)

$1.3007 (3729)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2934

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2892 (1380)

$1.2795 (2207)

$1.2697 (2034)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 33821 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3729);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 35773 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3061);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.06 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 16

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

European stocks finished slightly lower Tuesday, with declines in automobile shares and a rise in the euro drawing Germany's benchmark down from its previous record. "Markets seem to be enjoying the signs that incumbent governments are set for victory in upcoming elections," said Jasper Lawler, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, in a note.

The S&P 500 index on Tuesday marked its 15th session with a move within 0.5%, representing the longest such streak in about 48 years, according to Dow Jones data. The longest consecutive period of closes within 0.5% for the S&P 500 SPX, -0.07% is a 20-session streak in February 1969. Tuesday's trading come amid heightened doubts that President Donald Trump can easily push through Congress the type of market-friendly policies that have helped so-called risk assets log a series of all-time highs.

A falling U.S. dollar pressured stocks in Japan and cast broader concern over equity markets in the region, as turmoil in Washington continued to raise doubts about the Trump administration's ability to make progress on policy. The WSJ Dollar Index has fallen for five straight sessions, putting it at its lowest level since November. It fell a further 0.1% in Asian trading Wednesday.