Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
01:00 | Australia | Consumer Inflation Expectation | May | 4.6% | |
01:30 | Australia | Unemployment rate | April | 5.2% | 8.3% |
01:30 | Australia | Changing the number of employed | April | 5.9 | -575 |
06:00 | Germany | CPI, m/m | April | 0.1% | 0.3% |
06:00 | Japan | Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y | April | -40.8% | |
06:00 | Germany | CPI, y/y | April | 1.4% | 0.8% |
06:30 | Switzerland | Producer & Import Prices, y/y | April | -2.7% | |
08:00 | Eurozone | ECB Economic Bulletin | |||
08:00 | France | IEA Oil Market Report | |||
12:30 | Canada | Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) | March | 0.5% | -5.7% |
12:30 | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | May | 22647 | 25100 |
12:30 | U.S. | Import Price Index | April | -2.3% | -3.1% |
12:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | May | 3169 | 2500 |
14:00 | Canada | Bank of Canada publishes financial system review | |||
17:00 | U.S. | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | |||
22:00 | U.S. | FOMC Member Kaplan Speak | |||
22:30 | New Zealand | Business NZ PMI | March | 53.2 |
FXStreet reports that strategists at TD Securities open a short position on the AUD/USD pair as they think the Aussie has become expensive with a shift in the US-Chine narrative emerging.
“We enter a short AUD/USD position (spot reference: 0.6480) with a target of 0.6175 and a stop-loss of 0.6680.”
“The rhetoric between the US and China has heated up, which puts the spotlight on the upcoming trade discussions and broader political dialogue. The resulting stress leaves AUD vulnerable to a setback.”
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories fell by 0.745 million barrels in the week ended May 8. Economists had forecast a surge of 4.147 million barrels.
At the same time, gasoline stocks declined by 3.513 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 2.216 million barrels. Distillate stocks climbed by 3.511 million barrels, while analysts had forecast an increase of 2.857 million barrels.
Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. decreased by 300,000 barrels a day to 11.300 million barrels a day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.4 million barrels per day last week, down by 321,000 barrels per day from the previous week.
FXStreet reports that UOB Group’s Economist Ho Woei Chen, CFA, assessed the latest inflation figures in China and prospects of further easing by the PBoC in the next months.
“Both China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) eased off sharply in April… The decline in price pressure reflects lower commodity prices, weaker consumer demand as well as a moderation in food prices in particular pork prices in China. The key policy implication is clearly the need for the government to continue with its counter-cyclical measures.”
“The easing momentum in prices is evident as the sharp pressure on food prices starts to come off. CPI inflation fell on a month-on-month basis for the second straight month, down 0.9% from March with food prices down 3.0% m/m and pork prices down 7.6% m/m.”
“The deflation in PPI accelerated in April to the sharpest monthly drop in four years, led by the decline in prices of commodities and raw materials.”
“The easing inflation will create room for more monetary policy easing ahead as signalled in the PBoC’s Monetary Policy Implementation Report for 1Q20.”
FXStreet reports that according to economists at Rabobank, as long as Chinese growth concerns are in the headlines, the kiwi will be vulnerable.
“Whether or not Chinese demand for New Zealand dairy and meat proves to be fairly inelastic could be crucial for the incomes of many domestic businesses this year and for the outlook for the NZD.”
“While the kiwi has seen a lift recently from the government’s success in containing the virus, headwinds remain substantial.”
“We see risks of a dip towards NZD/USD 0.57 on a 3 to 6-month view. This assumes an intensification of US/China tensions in the run up to the US Presidential election and an associated increase about the pace of Chinese growth.”
U.S. stock-index futures changed little on Wednesday, as investors assessed the latest comments of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and U.S. PPI data for April.
Global Stocks:
Index/commodity | Last | Today's Change, points | Today's Change, % |
Nikkei | 20,267.05 | -99.43 | -0.49% |
Hang Seng | 24,180.30 | -65.38 | -0.27% |
Shanghai | 2,898.05 | +6.49 | +0.22% |
S&P/ASX | 5,421.90 | +18.90 | +0.35% |
FTSE | 5,938.30 | -56.47 | -0.94% |
CAC | 4,403.04 | -69.46 | -1.55% |
DAX | 10,672.16 | -147.34 | -1.36% |
Crude oil | $25.77 | | -0.04% |
Gold | $1,721.00 | | +0.83% |
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
3M Co | MMM | 141.8 | 0.28(0.20%) | 15167 |
ALCOA INC. | AA | 7.36 | 0.07(0.96%) | 55744 |
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 36.3 | 0.22(0.61%) | 10108 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 2,374.80 | 17.85(0.76%) | 42869 |
American Express Co | AXP | 83.05 | -0.09(-0.11%) | 15937 |
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP | AIG | 26.65 | 0.10(0.38%) | 9855 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 313.31 | 1.90(0.61%) | 381961 |
AT&T Inc | T | 29.1 | 0.21(0.73%) | 103573 |
Boeing Co | BA | 125.7 | 0.48(0.38%) | 198090 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 105.23 | 0.23(0.22%) | 47945 |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 91.27 | 0.17(0.19%) | 65165 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 43.5 | 0.28(0.65%) | 109805 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 42.36 | 0.01(0.02%) | 128820 |
Deere & Company, NYSE | DE | 131 | 0.95(0.73%) | 1121 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 44.2 | 0.08(0.18%) | 49298 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 211 | 0.90(0.43%) | 92527 |
FedEx Corporation, NYSE | FDX | 113.8 | 0.66(0.58%) | 10866 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 5.03 | 0.05(1.00%) | 350658 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 8.79 | 0.12(1.38%) | 13632 |
General Electric Co | GE | 6.07 | 0.07(1.17%) | 705396 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 22.7 | 0.14(0.62%) | 55075 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 176.62 | -0.59(-0.33%) | 12415 |
Google Inc. | GOOG | 1,385.10 | 9.36(0.68%) | 8709 |
Hewlett-Packard Co. | HPQ | 15 | 0.13(0.87%) | 1488 |
Home Depot Inc | HD | 233.16 | 0.26(0.11%) | 15090 |
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC. | HON | 128.1 | 0.51(0.40%) | 3601 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 58.77 | 0.38(0.65%) | 55918 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 120.6 | 0.34(0.28%) | 13986 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 147.35 | 0.21(0.14%) | 179609 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 87.15 | 0.12(0.14%) | 636149 |
McDonald's Corp | MCD | 176.66 | 0.12(0.07%) | 8956 |
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 77.36 | 0.17(0.22%) | 6926 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 183.43 | 0.92(0.50%) | 190984 |
Nike | NKE | 88.28 | 0.02(0.02%) | 68775 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 37.58 | 0.22(0.58%) | 25519 |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 114.27 | -0.28(-0.24%) | 8787 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 74.8 | 0.45(0.61%) | 18365 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 822.32 | 12.91(1.60%) | 248968 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 45.1 | 0.28(0.62%) | 22512 |
Travelers Companies Inc | TRV | 93.9 | -0.06(-0.06%) | 3165 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 29.39 | 0.24(0.82%) | 44871 |
UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH | 286.85 | -0.85(-0.30%) | 11462 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 55.41 | -0.05(-0.09%) | 9733 |
Visa | V | 179.65 | 0.48(0.27%) | 14747 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 124.2 | 0.42(0.34%) | 20322 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 105.02 | 0.46(0.44%) | 100074 |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 39.85 | -0.15(-0.38%) | 8700 |
The Labor Department reported on Wednesday the U.S. producer-price index (PPI) fell 1.3 percent m-o-m in April, following an unrevised 0.2 percent m-o-m drop in March. That marked the largest decline since the index began in December 2009.
For the 12 months through April, the PPI decreased 1.2 percent, following a 0.7 percent advance in the previous month. That was the largest drop since the 12 months ended November 2015.
Economists had forecast the headline PPI would decrease 0.5 percent m-o-m and 0.2 percent over the past 12 months.
According to the report, over 80 percent of the April decrease in the final demand index can be traced to a 3.3-percent m-o-m plunge in prices for final demand goods. Meanwhile, the index for final demand services dropped 0.2 percent m-o-m.
Excluding volatile prices for food and energy, the PPI declined 0.3 percent m-o-m but rose 0.6 percent over 12 months. Economists had forecast no change m-o-m and a gain of 0.9 percent y-o-y.
FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse expect more gains to come as long as Brent Crude Oil trades above $27.10.
“With the market remaining above $27.10 we look for further gains with resistance seen next at $36.29/40, which we look to cap to define the top of a broad long-term range. Above $36.40 though would complete an important base.”
“Support at $23.22 now ideally holds to keep the immediate risk higher. Only back below $18.73 though would warn of a retest of $16.65/14.53”.
USD fell against most of its major rivals in the European session on Wednesday, as investors awaited the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks on interest rate policy. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, dropped 0.23% to 99.70.
Jerome Powell is set to give a remote speech to the Peterson Institute of International Economics at 13:00 GMT.
It is expected that, in his speech, the Fed Chair will address the unprecedented contraction in business activity in the U.S. and possibly push back on market expectations of negative interest rates to combat it.
The U.S. President Donald Trump raised the prospect of an introduction of such a tool, tweeting that the U.S. should accept the "gift" of negative interest rates, which is benefiting other countries around the world.
However, the latest comments of the Fed's representatives signaled that the policymakers were unlikely to take interest rates below zero to boost the economy, hit by COVID-19.
FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse note that for the S&P 500, the market remains capped at key resistance starting at 2934, the 61.8% retracement of the 2020 selloff and stretching up to 3002, the key 200-day average.
“There remains a risk still for a test of the 200-day average at 3002, but our base case remains for this to cap and for a top to ideally form.”
“Below 2727 remains needed to see a (small) top established, exposing again the 200-week average at 2668, which stays seen as pivotal as to the direction of the long-term trend.”
“A close above 3025 is needed to suggest our view that strength has been a corrective rally has been wrong.”
U.S. weekly mortgage applications increase 0.3 percent
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in the week ended May 8, following a 0.1 percent uptick in the previous week.
According to the report, refinance applications decreased 3.3 percent, while applications to purchase a home surged 10.6 percent.
Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate rose to 3.43 percent from a record low 3.40 percent.
"There continues to be a stark recovery in purchase applications, as most large states saw increases in activity last week," noted MBA economist Joel Kan. "We expect this positive purchase trend to continue - at varying rates across the country - as states gradually loosen social distancing measures, and some of the pent-up demand for housing returns in what is typically the final weeks of the spring homebuying season."
FXStreet reports that economists at Standard Chartered Bank suggest that the UK government has extended the furlough scheme, therefore, 2020 budget deficit is likely to hit 12.5% of GDP.
“The furlough scheme could have a significant positive impact over the medium-term as it allows companies to retain most of their staff, while limiting bankruptcy risks associated with maintenance of employee costs.”
“Because of our weaker growth outlook, the extension of the furlough scheme and the more gradual exit from lockdown than previously assumed, we revise our 2020 fiscal deficit forecast to 12.5% of GDP (from 8.5% previously). We see it narrowing to 8.0% in 2021 (7.0% previously).”
“The UK’s national debt stood at 81% of GDP in 2018/19 and is therefore likely to climb to around 100% of GDP by the end of next year.”
The sources told The Globe and Mail that Canada asked for a 30-day roll over and it is almost certain that Washington will agree to the proposal. One senior source also added the hard debate will come next month when there will likely be different views on when to begin to lift the restrictions.
Gold: Threat of a consolidation phase is growing – Credit Suisse
FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse note that gold continues to struggle to hold its move above its ‘measured base objective’ at $1700/05 and upside momentum is waning near-term and the threat of a consolidation phase is growing.
“Support at $1660 needs to hold to see this averted and to keep the immediate risk higher still, with resistance at $1796/1803 next.”
“Below $1660 would signal a more protracted consolidation phase, with support seen initially at $1638, then what we expect to be better support at $1569/65.”
Reuters reports that world trade in goods is set to slump at a rate not seen since the global financial crisis in 2009, with estimates becoming increasingly gloomy over the past weeks, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said on Wednesday.
Merchandise trade is seen down 3.0% in the first quarter from the final three months of 2019 and by a further 26.9% in the second quarter, UNCTAD said. Year-on-year, these figures would be falls of 3.3% and 29.0% respectively.
"There were falls of a similar magnitude in 2009 during the global financial crisis, although the decline was not as steep as in 2020. At that time, global trade rebounded just as quickly, in line with global economic recovery," said UNCTAD's chief of statistics Steve MacFeely.
"At this moment, the shape of the recovery is still not clear, it will depend on how fast the economies return to positive growth and their demand for traded goods increases once again," he continued.
UNCTAD said its view of the first quarter had steadily worsened since March 24, when it predicted modest growth of trade in value terms of about 1%.
But controls at EU external borders will remain until 15 June
Controls can be reimposed if there are new outbreaks
German states should lift quarantine requirements for EU visitors
But keep them in place for visitors from outside of EU
It is too early to ease border controls with Italy
FXStreet reports that the asynchronous global development of the Covid-19 pandemic and lasting impediments to global trade will make the German recovery less dynamic than expected, per Deutsche Bank.
"We expect German GDP to decline by 9% this year and to expand by about 4% in 2021."
"With weaker-than-expected March hard data and shocking April survey data, we now see Q2 GDP falling by 14% q/q."
"Within Europe, Germany shows the smallest deterioration and was able to keep more construction and industry open under its lockdown. However, we still expect industrial production to fall by roughly 10% to 15% in real terms this year."
According to the report from Eurostat, in March 2020, the COVID-19 containment measures widely introduced by Member States had a significant impact on industrial production, as the seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 11.3% in the euro area and by 10.4% in the EU, compared with February 2020. Economists had expected a 12.1% decrease in the euro area. In February 2020, industrial production fell by 0.1% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU.
In March 2020 compared with March 2019, industrial production decreased by 12.9% in the euro area and by 11.8% in the EU. Economists had expected a 12.4% decrease in the euro area.
In the euro area in March 2020, compared with February 2020, production of durable consumer goods fell by 26.3%, capital goods by 15.9%, intermediate goods by 11.0%, energy by 4.0% and non-durable consumer goods by 1.6%. In the EU, production of durable consumer goods fell by 23.8%, capital goods by 15.1%, intermediate goods by 9.9%, energy by 3.5% and non durable consumer goods by 1.2%.
In the euro area in March 2020, compared with March 2019, production of durable consumer goods fell by 24.2%, capital goods by 21.5%, intermediate goods by 11.8%, energy by 6.7% and non-durable consumer goods by 0.8%. In the EU, production of durable consumer goods fell by 21.7%, capital goods by 20.0%, intermediate goods by 10.1%, energy by 6.4% and non-durable consumer goods by 0.3%.
Bloomberg reports that according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., a negative Federal Reserve policy rate is still improbable, but if it were to happen it could be a net benefit.
"Mildly negative rates such as -10 basis points for a year or two could be beneficial in the current conjuncture," strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note. However, he added that "we still view a negative Fed policy rate as unlikely," and emphasized that rates would need to be just slightly negative, and not for too long, in order to be effective.
The issue of a negative Fed policy rate has arisen in recent days because futures are currently pricing one in, though officials at the bank have largely dismissed the idea up to now.
In arriving at its conclusion, JPMorgan cited results from the European Central Bank's cut to a rate of negative 10 basis points in June 2014.
There was a significant increase in the pace of Euro area credit creation in the aftermath of that move, Panigirtzoglou wrote. Easing in funding conditions and reduced fragmentation outweighed the negatives from a shrinkage of the euro money-fund industry and a reduction in interbank market activity. He sees a similar potential outcome for the U.S.
The report said another positive effect from a slightly negative rate might be that a search for yield could spread from money markets to bonds, with high-quality corporate and mortgage bonds the biggest beneficiaries. It could also mean less healthy-banks see significant easing in their funding conditions, the report said.
FXStreet reports that analysts at TD Securities think GBP/CHF could serve as a better proxy for a renewed proxy for Brexit risks - particularly for those who may already have exposure to the USD and/or JPY.
"With sight deposits rising rapidly in recent weeks, we think the SNB has been busy trying to prevent CHF appreciation. We do not, however, think they are likely to prevent it."
"With an eye on the end-April highs around 1.22, we think a break below 1.1870 is likely to attract additional downside momentum, particularly if risky assets begin to underperform in general."
FXStreet reports that economists at Deutsche Bank are neutral on equities near-term, but more constructive further out conditional on economic recovery.
"While the S&P 500 rally since the March 23 bottom has been quite sharp, we note it has been led by defensive sectors and stocks, and not the cyclical sectors, Value and Small-cap stocks that typically lead when markets price in an economic rebound."
"Our baseline scenario sees Q2 as the bottom in global growth and earnings, and we see equities recovering most of their losses by year end in historically typical manner."
"Much depends on whether recovery begins in Q3. If it does not, equities would be expected to fall further and we would expect a bottom 5% lower than the last one, so a peak-to- trough decline of around -40%."
CNBC reports that according to billionaire George Soros, the U.S. should be wary of working too closely with China in order to protect its own democracy.
In an interview published by German newspaper Augsburger Allgemeine, Soros said ongoing tensions between the world's two largest economies and President Donald Trump's blaming of China for the Covid-19 pandemic were complicating potential joint efforts to eradicate the virus.
However, Soros himself was not an advocate of closer relations with Beijing.
"There are a lot of people who say we should be working very closely with China (on tackling the crisis) - but I am not in favor of doing that," he said. "We must protect our democratic open society. At the same time, we must find a way to cooperate on fighting climate change and the novel coronavirus. That won't be easy."
Soros told Augsburger Allgemeine he sympathized with the Chinese people who he claimed were "under the domination of a dictator." However, he predicted that the coronavirus crisis was adding pressure to Chinese President Xi Jinping's hold on power.
"Many well-educated Chinese are deeply angry at the party leadership for hiding the coronavirus for so long," Soros said.
"When Xi abolished term limits and named himself, in essence, president for life, he destroyed the political future of the most important and ambitious men in a very narrow and competitive elite," Soros said. "It was a big mistake on his part. So, yes, he is very strong in a way, but at the same time extremely weak, and now perhaps vulnerable."
Soros, a billionaire philanthropist and liberal activist, also slammed Trump's politics, claiming the U.S. president wants to be a dictator but is held back by the U.S. Constitution. He alleged that Trump did not represent the values of an open and free society.
FXStreet reports that for oil markets to return back to normal, there needs to be a fundamental rebalancing in supply and demand, per Deutsche Bank.
"Owing to the risk of viral reintroduction, we expect that global oil demand may not return to a January 2020 baseline until perhaps sometime in H2-2021."
"One long-term risk is an oil price upside shock. Without sufficient continued investment in the exploration and development of new oil project to replace declining output, a destabilizing oil price spike would be an increased risk over a 3 to 5 year timeframe."
"For 2021, our Brent price forecast is now $35/bbl, and our WTI price forecast is $32/bbl."
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | Westpac Consumer Confidence | May | 75.6 | 88.1 | |
01:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index, q/q | Quarter I | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
01:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index, y/y | Quarter I | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
02:00 | New Zealand | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 0.25% | 0.25% | ||
04:00 | New Zealand | RBNZ Press Conference | ||||
05:00 | Japan | Eco Watchers Survey: Current | April | 14.2 | 7.9 | |
05:00 | Japan | Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook | April | 18.8 | 16.6 | |
06:00 | United Kingdom | Business Investment, y/y | Quarter I | 1.8% | 0.7% | |
06:00 | United Kingdom | Business Investment, q/q | Quarter I | -0.5% | -2.5% | 0% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (YoY) | March | -4.3% | -10.4% | -9.7% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | March | 0.3% | -6% | -4.6% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (YoY) | March | -3.4% | -9.3% | -8.2% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (MoM) | March | -0.1% | -5.6% | -4.2% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | March | 0.3% | -5.7% | |
06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | March | -0.2% | -8% | -5.8% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, q/q | Quarter I | 0% | -2.5% | -2% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | Quarter I | 1.1% | -2.1% | -1.6% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | Total Trade Balance | March | -1.5 | -6.7 |
In today's Asian trading, the US dollar was almost unchanged against the euro and yen, but the pound rose after the publication of data on a smaller-than-forecast fall in the country's GDP in the 1st quarter.
The UK economy in the 1st quarter fell by 2% compared to the previous three months, according to preliminary data from the Office for National statistics (ONS). Relative to January-March 2019, the decrease was 1.6%. Analysts on average predicted a more significant fall - by 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively.
The ICE Dollar index, which shows the value of the us dollar against six major world currencies, rose 0.04% compared to the previous trading day.
Today, traders expect a speech by Federal reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, although Powell is unlikely to affect the regulator's plans for the monetary policy rate, since the next fed meeting will be held only in a month.
Investors have begun to speculate that the Fed may lower the interest rate below zero, following the Central banks of Europe and Japan. Last week, futures quotes for the Fed's benchmark interest rate indicated expectations of a negative rate at the beginning of next year.
Fed officials have long stated that they do not intend to copy the actions of their European and Japanese counterparts, and opposed the introduction of a negative interest rate.
eFXdata reports that Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the potential impact of introducing negative rates on the USD.
"Turning to the impact of negative rates on the USD, the evidence so far is once again mixed. Whereas negative rates have weighed on the EUR, they had only limited impact on the JPY and CHF. It is also important to note that all of these currencies featured sizeable current account (CA) surpluses. This, when coupled with negative policy rates, should make them, at least in theory, more appealing funding currencies during risk on but nevertheless support them during risk off, when carry trades are unwound. The USD is a CA deficit currency that is supported by unparalleled liquidity and superior returns," CACIB notes.
"Negative rates could destroy the USD relative rate advantage and make it an appealing (liquid) funding currency. Coupled with the need to refinance the US CA deficit, chances are that foreign investors will demand a discount - e.g. a weak USD - to continue to buy the now lower-yielding US assets," CACIB adds.
FXStreet reports that occasional bearish attempts in AUD/USD are not ruled out, although a drop below 0.6410 is not favoured, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group.
24-hour view: "Our expectation for the weakness in AUD to 'extend to 0.6410' was wrong as it rebounded strongly from 0.6432 to 0.6536 before dropping back down. While the rapid swings have resulted in a mixed outlook, the underlying tone still appears to be on the soft side. From here, we see chance for AUD to edge lower but it is unlikely to break the 0.6410 support. Resistance is at 0.6490 followed by 0.6520."
Next 1-3 weeks: "Yesterday, we highlighted that upward momentum has eased and that AUD could test the month-to-date low at 0.6373. AUD subsequently popped above our 0.6520 'strong resistance' (high of 0.6536) before dropping back quickly. While AUD could still edge lower, any weakness is unlikely to be 'one-way'. In other words, the current movement is likely part of a broad 0.6370/0.6570 range."
Office for National Statistics said that production output fell by 4.2% between February 2020 and March 2020. Economists had expected a 5.6% decrease. Manufacturing providing the largest downward contribution, falling by 4.6%; there were also falls from mining and quarrying (11.5%), electricity and gas (1.5%) and water and waste (0.5%). Economists had expected a 6.0% decrease in manufacturing.
The monthly decrease of 4.6% in manufacturing output was led by transport equipment, which fell by 20.5%, with the motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry falling by a record 34.3%; of the 13 subsectors, 10 displayed downward contributions, indicating that overall weakness was widespread.
Total production output decreased by 2.1% for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2020, compared with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019; this was led by manufacturing output, which fell by 1.7%.
The quarterly fall in manufacturing is because of widespread weakness, with 9 of the 13 subsectors providing downward contributions; this was led by transport equipment which fell by 9.9%.
For Quarter 1 2020, production output decreased by 4.9%, compared with Quarter 1 2019; this was led by a fall in manufacturing of 6.0% where 12 of the 13 subsectors displayed downward contributions.
The coronavirus (COVID-19) had a strong negative impact on our estimates of monthly, three monthly and three monthly on a year ago growth for March 2020;
According to the report from Office for National Statistics, UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have fallen by 2.0% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2020, the largest fall since Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2008. Economists had expected a 2.5% decrease.
When compared with the same quarter a year ago, UK GDP decreased by 1.6% in Quarter 1 2020; the biggest fall since Quarter 4 2009, when it also fell by 1.6%. Economists had expected a 2.1% decrease.
This release captures the first direct effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and the government measures taken to reduce transmission of the virus.
There has been a widespread disruption to economic activity, as services output fell by a record 1.9% in Quarter 1; there were also significant contractions in production and construction.
Household consumption fell by 1.7% in Quarter 1 2020, the largest contraction since Quarter 4 2008, alongside declines in gross fixed capital formation, government consumption and trade volumes.
Commenting on today's GDP figures, Jonathan Athow, Deputy National Statistician for Economic Statistics, said: "With the arrival of the pandemic nearly every aspect of the economy was hit in March, dragging growth to a record monthly fall. Services and construction saw record declines on the month with education, car sales and restaurants all falling substantially. Although very few industries saw growth, there were some that did including IT support and the manufacture of pharmaceuticals, soaps and cleaning products. "The pandemic also hit trade globally, with UK imports and exports falling over the last couple of months, including a notable drop in imports from China."
CNBC reports that Brazil had a total of 177,602 cases, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University. Brazil also recorded its deadliest day ever with 881 confirmed fatalities in the past 24 hours.
Russia also saw a spike as cases rose to 232,243, making the country the second worst hit, according to Hopkins data.
Global cases: More than 4.2 million
Global deaths: At least 291,366
Most cases reported: United States (1,369,314), Russia (232,243), Spain (228,030), United Kingdom (227,741), Italy (221,216)
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.0956 (1526)
$1.0930 (835)
$1.0910 (573)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.0853
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.0805 (1192)
$1.0781 (2261)
$1.0751 (2408)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date June, 5 is 84704 contracts (according to data from May, 12) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0600 (4014);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.2535 (1340)
$1.2464 (1201)
$1.2408 (628)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2272
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2218 (349)
$1.2198 (436)
$1.2174 (1219)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 5 is 23299 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3410);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 5 is 26052 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3095);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.12 versus 1.12 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 12
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
Brent | 28.82 | -1.23 |
Silver | 15.41 | -0.32 |
Gold | 1701.946 | 0.26 |
Palladium | 1849.65 | -1.98 |
Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|---|
NIKKEI 225 | -24.18 | 20366.48 | -0.12 |
Hang Seng | -356.38 | 24245.68 | -1.45 |
KOSPI | -13.23 | 1922.17 | -0.68 |
ASX 200 | -58.2 | 5403 | -1.07 |
FTSE 100 | 55.04 | 5994.77 | 0.93 |
DAX | -5.49 | 10819.5 | -0.05 |
CAC 40 | -17.72 | 4472.5 | -0.39 |
Dow Jones | -457.21 | 23764.78 | -1.89 |
S&P 500 | -60.07 | 2870.12 | -2.05 |
NASDAQ Composite | -189.79 | 9002.55 | -2.06 |
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | Westpac Consumer Confidence | May | 75.6 | |
01:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index, q/q | Quarter I | 0.5% | 0.5% |
01:30 | Australia | Wage Price Index, y/y | Quarter I | 2.2% | 2.1% |
02:00 | New Zealand | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 0.25% | ||
04:00 | New Zealand | RBNZ Press Conference | |||
05:00 | Japan | Eco Watchers Survey: Current | April | 14.2 | |
05:00 | Japan | Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook | April | 18.8 | |
06:00 | United Kingdom | Business Investment, y/y | Quarter I | 1.8% | |
06:00 | United Kingdom | Business Investment, q/q | Quarter I | -0.5% | -2.5% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (YoY) | March | -3.9% | -10.4% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | March | 0.5% | -6% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (YoY) | March | -2.8% | -9.3% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (MoM) | March | 0.1% | -5.6% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | March | 0.3% | |
06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | March | -0.1% | -8% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, q/q | Quarter I | 0.0% | -2.5% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | Quarter I | 1.1% | -2.1% |
06:00 | United Kingdom | Total Trade Balance | March | -2.8 | |
09:00 | Eurozone | Industrial production, (MoM) | March | -0.1% | -12.1% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Industrial Production (YoY) | March | -1.9% | -12.4% |
12:30 | U.S. | PPI, y/y | April | 0.7% | -0.2% |
12:30 | U.S. | PPI, m/m | April | -0.2% | -0.5% |
12:30 | U.S. | PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y | April | 1.4% | 0.9% |
12:30 | U.S. | PPI excluding food and energy, m/m | April | 0.2% | 0.0% |
13:00 | United Kingdom | NIESR GDP Estimate | April | -4.8% | |
13:00 | U.S. | Fed Chair Powell Testimony | |||
14:30 | U.S. | Crude Oil Inventories | May | 4.59 | 4.295 |
20:10 | New Zealand | RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks | |||
22:45 | New Zealand | Visitor Arrivals | March | -10.8% |
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.64753 | -0.21 |
EURJPY | 116.26 | -0.05 |
EURUSD | 1.08458 | 0.37 |
GBPJPY | 131.475 | -0.95 |
GBPUSD | 1.22661 | -0.54 |
NZDUSD | 0.60813 | 0.03 |
USDCAD | 1.40732 | 0.43 |
USDCHF | 0.96945 | -0.35 |
USDJPY | 107.182 | -0.41 |
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