CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 15-02-2013

The yen fell against the dollar after an official from the G20 group reported that the latest draft of the statement does not repeat the G7 opinion as to whether that exchange rates should not be the object of politics. Meanwhile, the G20 called on members to avoid competitive devaluations, and stressed that exchange rates should be set by the market. Note that the yen fell by 7.2% this year against the dollar, which was associated with the desire to stimulate economic growth in Japan.

The Canadian dollar fell for the first time in four days against the U.S. dollar after Statistics Canada reported that the volume of supply in the industrial sector fell by -3.1% in December after rising 1.7% in November. Note that this decline was the worst in 43 months. Meanwhile, data showed that sales in manufacturing decreased to 48.02 million Canadian dollars (47.94 million U.S. dollars). Decline in December, according to analysts, primarily due to a decrease of 9.1% in the transport sector, and also in the assembly of cars (15.4%).

Pound shows its greatest weekly decline against the U.S. dollar since June, when the Office for National Statistics said that retail sales fell in January by 0.6%. This happened after a revised fall of 0.3% in December. Office for National Statistics indicated that the volume of retail sales in January was 0.6% lower than it was a year ago, that was the first time since the summer of 2011. Despite the fact that in the second half of the month was heavy snowfall, analysts were optimistic and predicted that the market will recover from disappointing data in December and shows a growth rate of 0.5%.

European stocks were little changed as companies from PPR SA to Aker Solutions ASA reported earnings and finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 nations met in Moscow.

PPR surged to an 11-year high after the French owner of Gucci reported profit that topped estimates.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.2 percent to 287.34 at the close of trade in London.

A report showed American consumer confidence increased more than estimated this month. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary February index of sentiment rose to 76.3 from 73.8 the prior month. The gauge was projected to rise to 74.8, according to the median forecast.

National benchmark indexes rose in eight of the 18 western- European markets today.

FTSE 100 6,328.26 +0.90 +0.01% CAC 40 3,660.37 -9.23 -0.25% DAX 7,593.51 -37.68 -0.49%

PPR jumped 7.6 percent to 172 euros, the highest price since July 2001. The company’s so-called recurring operating income climbed 19 percent to 1.79 billion euros. The average estimate analysts called for 1.75 billion euros. The company said it expects its performance to improve further in 2013.

Eni SpA rose 2.1 percent to 17.69 euros. Italy’s biggest oil company proposed a 2012 dividend of 1.08 euros a share, up from 1.04 euros the previous year, even as Eni reported a 3.6 percent decline in fourth-quarter adjusted net income to 1.52 billion euros ($2 billion).

Anglo American Plc gained 1.3 percent to 2,039 pence. Full- year earnings per share amounted to $2.26, topping the average analyst projection for $1.92,

Gerresheimer AG advanced 3.9 percent to 43.17 euros, the highest price since it sold shares to the public in June 2007, after CA Cheuvreux and Kepler Capital Markets raised their recommendations for the stock.

Aker Solutions fell 11 percent to 107 kroner. The oil- services provider controlled by billionaire Kjell Inge Roekke reported fourth-quarter net income of 504 million kroner ($91 million), missing the average analyst projection that called for 678.6 million kroner.

The cost of oil fell today, and is on its way to its first weekly decline in the past five weeks, which was associated with the publication of the data, which showed that the volume of U.S. industrial unexpectedly fell, causing concern with the fact that economic activity will grow more slowly than anticipated. Note that industrial output fell by 0.1% against 0.2% expected and revised from 0.4% to 0.3% of the previous value.

Meanwhile, the pressure on the oil have expectations meeting G20, which will examine the economic policy and its impact on the exchange rate. Economists worry that competitive devaluations could lead to "currency wars", which in turn will lead to the impoverishment of many countries.

At the same time, many traders and strategists say that the commodity market is significantly affected by a number of weak economic indicators, which suggests that the world economy will grow less quickly than expected.

In addition, the price of oil also continues to influence concern about Iran's nuclear program, as well as other countries in the Middle East. Meanwhile, fears that the conflict could deter oil supplies fell slightly after the Middle East has taken steps to slow the growth of stocks of nuclear materials that could be used to make bombs.

March futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell $ 1.69, and now stands at 95.62 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

March futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell $ 1.35, and is now $ 116.65 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices fell sharply today, reaching a six-month low in this case, which was associated with breaking through key support levels at $ 1625, and an increase in sales after experiencing a high of $ 1,620 an ounce.

Note that the weak appetite for the precious metal from investors and lack of demand from China during the Lunar New Year has led to the fact that the gold is on the way to a 3-percent drop this week, which is the largest decline since June.

Economists say that the losses in the euro also put pressure on the metal. Note that the single currency has continued to remain in negative territory against the dollar after data showed that the index of activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York rose in February, registering with the first increase in seven months.

We also add that investing in gold fell this year on signs that countries such as the United States and China are rising, while the problem of sovereign debt and the economic downturn in Europe continued to deteriorate.

Note that now the focus of market participants remains G20 meeting and subsequent statements that may affect the dynamics of the markets, and to shed light on the monetary policy.

In addition, data released Thursday showed that billionaire investor George Soros reduced his holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, which is the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund, more than half in the fourth quarter, while the largest shareholder of GLD John Paulson leave their possessions intact.

February futures price of gold on COMEX today dropped, and now is up to 1604.00 dollars per ounce.

U.S. stock futures were little changed as Group of 20 finance chiefs met and a report showed manufacturing in the New York area unexpectedly expanded.

Global Stocks:

Downgrade:
General Motors (GM) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Craig Hallum

EUR/USD $1.3270, $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3385, $1.3400, $1.3500

USD/JPY Y92.00, Y92.25, Y93.00, Y93.10, Y94.00

GBP/USD $1.5450, $1.5500, $1.5600, $1.5700

EUR/GBP stg0.8600, stg0.8650

USD/CHF Chf0.9240, Chf0.9300

EUR/CHF Chf1.2250, Chf1.2400, Chf1.2450

AUD/USD $1.0230, $1.0250, $1.0280, $1.0285, $1.0350, $1.0380

AUD/JPY Y96.00

09:15 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) January -0.3% +0.5% -0.6%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) January +0.3% +0.9% -0.6%

10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. December 10.5 10.7 12.0

The euro fell against the dollar as investors wait for news from the G20 summit. EU representative Ren and member of the Governing Council of the ECB Asmussen to actively focus on reforms at the expense of monetary and fiscal stimulus. ECB Weidmann opposed the further lowering of interest rates.

In the Project that started in Moscow two-day G20 summit ECB President Mario Draghi said that the euro is not overvalued currency, and its long-term average rate corresponds to the nominal and real terms.

The single currency reacted negatively to the data on the trade balance of the euro area. According to the published data of the official statistics agency eurozone Eurostat, the December trade surplus in the euro area narrowed to € 11.7 billion from € 13 billion in the previous month and the forecast € 13.1 billion Exports from the euro zone in December fell by 1.8% compared to November after rising 0.6% the previous month. Figures are adjusted for seasonal variations and suggest that companies are experiencing difficulties in the eurozone implement their products in other markets, as the global economy slows.

The British pound fell against the dollar after the release of retail sales data, which showed the expected growth slowdown. In January, the annual retail sales in the UK fell by 0.6% against 0.1% the previous month, analysts were expecting growth of 0.8%. In a monthly comparison index fell by 0.6% vs. -0.3% and +0.4% forecast.

EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to the low of $ 1.3305

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to the low of $ 1.5460

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair rose to a maximum of Y93.27

In the U.S. at 13:30 GMT will Empire Manufacturing production index for February, at 14:00 GMT - net purchases of long-term U.S. securities by foreign investors, the total net purchases of U.S. securities by foreign investors in December, in the 14:15 GMT - factor capacity utilization, the change in industrial production for January, to 14:55 GMT - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in February.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3450/60, $1.3415/25, $1.3400, $1.3355/65

Bids $1.3300, $1.3290, $1.3265/60, $1.3250

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5650, $1.5600/10, $1.5585, $1.5550

Bids $1.5460/50, $1.5400/390

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0450, $1.0415/20, $1.0400, $1.0380/85

Bids $1.0330/25, $1.0310/00, $1.0295/90, $1.0270/65, $1.0250

EUR/JPY

Offers Y124.90/00, Y124.50, Y124.35/40, Y124.20, Y123.75/80

Bids Y122.80, Y122.50, Y122.00, Y121.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y93.50, Y93.30/40, Y93.00, Y92.75/80

Bids Y92.30, Y92.05/00, Y91.50, Y91.20

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8685/90, stg0.8650, stg0.8630/35

Bids stg0.8570, stg0.8545/40, stg0.8520/15

European stocks were little changed as companies from Aker Solutions ASA to PPR SA reported earnings and finance chiefs from the Group of 20 nations meet in Moscow.

G-20 finance ministers and central bankers begin talks in Moscow today with investors seeking clarity on how comfortable they are with a sliding yen.

Japan is in the spotlight after the yen tumbled about 12 percent in the past three months on the bet that new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will pursue a more aggressive monetary policy. That has led to concern that he’s chasing a cheaper yen, potentially triggering a currency war with other countries.

Aker Solutions fell 9 percent to 109 kroner. The oil- services provider controlled by billionaire Kjell Inge Roekke reported fourth-quarter net income of 504 million kroner ($91 million), missing the average analyst projection that called for 678.6 million kroner.

LSE slumped 98 pence to 1,243 pence. The exchange operator which has agreed to buy as much as 60 percent of LCH.Clearnet under renegotiated terms, tumbled the most since September after the clearinghouse posted earnings that RBC called “weak.”

Darty Plc, the owner of France’s biggest consumer- electronics chain, tumbled 8 percent to 45.75 pence after saying it is in danger of missing annual profit estimates. Sales weakened toward the end of the three months through January, while high levels of promotional activity are harming profitability, the London-based company said today. Should conditions persist, adjusted pretax profit for the year ending April 30 may fail to reach the lower end of analyst estimates of about 30 million euros ($40 million).

FTSE 100 6,322.5 -4.86 -0.08%

CAC 40 3,667.48 -2.12 -0.06%

DAX 7,613.73 -17.46 -0.23%

Eurozone's trade surplus declined in December from a month earlier, the latest figures published by Eurostat revealed Friday.

The surplus fell to EUR 11.7 billion in December from a revised EUR 13 billion in the previous month. Economists expected the surplus to fall to EUR 13.1 billion from November's originally estimated EUR 13.7 billion.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports fell 1.8 percent between December and November. Imports declined 3 percent. Annually, exports fell 3 percent and imports were down 6 percent.

During 2012, euro area trade in goods recorded a surplus of EUR 81.8 billion, compared with EUR 15.7 billion shortfall in 2011. The EU 27 recorded a trade deficit of EUR 104.6 billion in 2012 compared with a deficit of EUR 162.7 billion in 2011.

EUR/USD $1.3270, $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3385, $1.3400, $1.3500

USD/JPY Y92.00, Y92.25, Y93.00, Y93.10, Y94.00

GBP/USD $1.5450, $1.5500, $1.5600, $1.5700

EUR/GBP stg0.8600, stg0.8650

USD/CHF Chf0.9240, Chf0.9300

EUR/CHF Chf1.2250, Chf1.2400, Chf1.2450

AUD/USD $1.0230, $1.0250, $1.0280, $1.0285, $1.0350, $1.0380

AUD/JPY Y96.00

Asian stocks fell, with Japan’s Topix Index snapping the longest weekly winning streak in 40 years, as the yen rose and profit reports from Trend Micro Inc. and Rio Tinto Group disappointed investors.

Nikkei 225 11,173.83 -133.45 -1.18%

Hang Seng 23,444.56 +31.31 +0.13%

S&P/ASX 200 5,033.92 -2.96 -0.06%

Shanghai Composite Closed

Rio Tinto declined 2.7 percent in Sydney after the miner reported its biggest loss in at least 15 years.

Trend Micro tumbled 6.1 percent after the Japanese anti-virus software maker’s net income fell 23 percent.

Auckland International Airport Ltd. slumped the most in four years after a New Zealand pension fund reduced its stake in the nation’s busiest terminal.

Asian stocks rose after the Bank of Japan maintained its asset purchasing program before its governor steps down next month amid speculation an unexpected contraction in Japan’s economy in the fourth quarter will boost efforts to end deflation.

Nikkei 225 11,307.28 +55.87 +0.50%

Hang Seng Closed

S&P/ASX 200 5,036.88 +33.22 +0.66%

Shanghai Composite Closed

Asahi Group Holdings Ltd. advanced 5.8 percent as the biggest beer maker in Japan by market share said it will buy back as much as 4.3 percent of its stock and forecast profit will rise 15 percent.

Alumina Ltd. soared 7.5 percent in Sydney after Citic Resources Holdings Ltd. agreed to buy a stake in the company for A$452 million ($468 million).

Singapore Telecommunications Ltd. lost 2.2 percent as earnings declined on charges at its Australian and Philippine businesses.

Most European stocks declined as reports showed the economies of the euro area and Japan shrank in the fourth quarter, outweighing a decrease in American jobless claims.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 0.2 percent to 287.79 at the close, paring an earlier drop of as much as 0.6 percent, as releases showed the economies of Germany, France and Italy all contracted more than estimated.

Euro area gross domestic product fell 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said. That exceeded the 0.4 percent median estimate. The German economy, Europe’s largest, shrank 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter, while French GDP fell 0.3 percent. Italy’s economy shrank 0.9 percent. All contractions exceeded the median forecasts of economists. In Japan, GDP dropped an annualized 0.4 percent, following a revised 3.8 percent decline in the previous quarter, the Cabinet Office said. The median forecast of economists called for 0.4 percent growth.

National benchmark indexes fell in 13 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 6,327.36 -31.75 -0.50% CAC 40 3,669.6 -28.93 -0.78% DAX 7,631.19 -80.70 -1.05%

Nestle dropped 2.3 percent to 63 Swiss francs. The company said its sales excluding acquisitions, disposals and currency changes increased 5.9 percent in 2012. That was less than the 6 percent average estimate of analysts.

Britvic Plc lost 7.1 percent to 390 pence, a 10-week low. The U.K. distributor of Pepsi was downgraded at Societe Generale SA, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Barclays Plc. A.G. Barr Plc called off its planned acquisition of Britvic yesterday after the Office of Fair Trading referred the deal to the Competition Commission.

Bankia SA, the lender recently ejected from Spain’s benchmark IBEX 35 Index, slumped 12 percent to 41 euro cents. The bank will convert bonds to equity at 1 euro cent per share as part of its reorganization, Expansion reported.

Renault advanced 7.7 percent to 46.50 euros, its biggest gain since September 2011. France’s second-largest carmaker said earnings before interest, taxes and one-time items totaled 729 million euros ($971.5 million). That beat the 698 million-euro average estimate.

ABB rose 5.6 percent to 20.81 francs, its biggest advance in 18 months, after reporting earnings that surpassed analyst estimates. The world’s largest maker of power transformers said it will continue to focus on cutting costs this year amid an uncertain economic outlook.

BNP Paribas SA gained 2 percent to 46.75 euros. The bank plans to reduce its annual cost base by 2 billion euros by 2015. BNP plans to increase its dividend to 1.50 euros a share from 1.20 euros a year earlier.

Indexes retreated from session lows, closed trading multidirectional dynamics

Futures for premarket snizhadis, indicating a negative start trading on the major U.S. stock exchanges. Today's film due to increased concerns about the situation in the European economy against the background of published data, which recorded a larger-than-expected decline in GDP in the region.

Decrease in the indices restricted better than expected data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. (341 thousand vs. 361 thousand), as well as reports on mergers / acquisitions.

As for the latter, they are specific to companies HJ Heinz and American Airlines.

H.J. Heinz: Warren Buffett's company Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital bought sauces and ketchup manufacturer HJ Heinz for $ 28 billion, noted that an agreement has been signed, but the deal is subject to approval by shareholders Heinz, requires obtaining regulatory approvals, and is expected to be completed in the 3rd quarter of 2013.

American Airlines: American Airlines Flight and US Airways merger agreement, in which you will create the world's largest air carrier (more than a thousand ships, about 6.5 thousand flights a day). The new company will retain the name American Airlines.

DOW index components show a mixed trend. More than the others fell in the share price The Coca-Cola Company (KO, -1.13%). Leader with shares in Alcoa, Inc. (AA, +2.80%).

Most sectors of the S & P showing a negative trend. Leading sector of consumer goods (+0.2%). Below is the rest of the sector and utilities (-0.8%).

At the close:

Dow -9.37 13,973.54 -0.07%

Nasdaq +1.78 3,198.66 +0.06%

00:00 China Bank holiday -

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) December +2.5% +2.5% +2.4%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) December -7.8% -7.9%

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report February

The yen climbed ahead of a meeting of Group-of-20 finance officials and as investors speculated who may be chosen to lead the Bank of Japan to carry out Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s push for more monetary stimulus. G-20 finance ministers and central bankers start a two-day meeting today in Moscow. The group will reaffirm a pledge to “refrain from competitive devaluation” and will commit to monitoring “possible monetary-policy spillover,” according to a draft statement obtained by Bloomberg.

Toshiro Muto is the leading candidate for BOJ governor, Reuters reported today, citing people close to the selection process. Muto is the most conservative among probable choices, according to Citigroup Inc.

The euro was near three-week low on signs the currency bloc’s economy is struggling to recover. Reports yesterday signaled that the euro area’s recession deepened more than forecast last quarter. Gross domestic product fell 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, the European Union’s statistics office said, the worst performance since the first quarter of 2009.

The New Zealand dollar reached the highest level in almost 1 1/2 years after retail sales jumped. In New Zealand, retail sales adjusted for inflation surged 2.1 percent in the three months through December from the third quarter, when they fell a revised 0.2 percent, the statistics office in Wellington said today. The gain was the most since the fourth quarter of 2006 and exceeded the 1.4 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3345-75.

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.5520.

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y92.25.

Change % Change Last

Oil $97.36 +0.05 +0.05%

Gold $1,637.00 +1.50 +0.09%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 11,307.28 +55.87 +0.50%

Hang Seng Closed

S&P/ASX 200 5,036.88 +33.22 +0.66%

Shanghai Composite Closed

CAC 40 3,669.6 -28.93 -0.78%

DAX 7,631.19 -80.70 -1.05%

Dow -9.37 13,973.54 -0.07%

Nasdaq +1.78 3,198.66 +0.06%

S&P +1.06 1,521.39 +0.07%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3362 -0,66%

GBP/USD $1,5493 -0,30%

USD/CHF Chf0,9209 +0,45%

USD/JPY Y92,86 -0,55%

EUR/JPY Y124,09 -1,22%

GBP/JPY Y143,87 -0,90%

AUD/USD $1,0357 -0,13%

NZD/USD $0,8510 +0,68%

USD/CAD C$1,0008 -0,09%

00:00 China Bank holiday -

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) December +2.5% +2.5%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) December -7.8%

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report February

09:15 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) January -0.1% +0.5%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) January +0.3% +0.9%

10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. December 11.0 10.7

13:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index February -7.8 -2.1

13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) December +1.7% -0.4%

14:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows December 52.3 34.3

14:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows December 27.8

14:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) January +0.3% +0.2%

14:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization January 78.8% 78.9%

14:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) February 73.8 74.6