CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 19-06-2020

According to ActionForex, analysts at RBC Financial Group note that Canada's April retail sales plunged 26% – much softer than the -15.6% preliminary estimate a month ago.

"The drop in April retail sales in Canada was massive – and significantly larger than the 15.6% drop Statistics Canada provided as a preliminary estimate along with the March report. Controlling for price changes, sale volumes were down 25% from March in April and down almost a third compared to “pre-shock” February levels."

"Virtually all economic data for April has been exceptionally soft – manufacturing and wholesale sales reported earlier in the week were both also down more than 20% in April. Statistics Canada already provided an advance estimate that overall GDP declined 11% in the month, but reports to-date have left risks tilted to the downside of that."

"But it is also increasingly clear that the massive decline in economy-wide output ended at two-months in April – and that is still taking some of the sting out of exceptionally ugly backward-looking economic data." 

"Statistics Canada’s preliminary count of May retail sales showed an increase of 19%. That would still retrace less than 40% of the decline over the prior two months, but virus containment measures have continued to ease – and at least in Canada without a corresponding increase in virus spread to-date. And government income supports for those losing work due to COVID-19 are also exceptionally large. So spending probably has continued to increase into June."

"Some form of virus containment measures are likely to remain in place at least until there is a vaccine or more effective treatment – and that will leave the economy operating below capacity for the foreseeable future. But the long-road to recovery still very likely started in May."

• Economic rebound could be slowed by continued virus spread
• Expects U.S. unemployment rate to be double digits at the end of 2020
• U.S. inflation is likely to remain below Fed's 2% target
• Fed is seeing steady stream of interest in May Street lending program

FXStreet reports that Terence Wu, an FX strategist at OCBC Bank, notes that the AUD/USD pair trades above the 0.6850 level, specifically at 0.6895 as of writing, which needs to be broken to expose the 200-day ma at 0.6666.

“Apart from risk cues, the AUD/USD was also pressured by the softer than expected employment data. However, the pair remains stubbornly above the 0.6850 mark.” 

“The 0.6850 level will need to be breached before the pair can contemplate firmer supports at 0.6780/00 and multi-session target at the 200-day ma (0.6666).”

“Topside resistance shifts lower to 0.6900.”

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Friday, as reports that China will steed up buying of the American farm goods and hopes of a bounce-back in post-pandemic economic activity outweighed worries about rising coronavirus cases in the U.S.

Global Stocks:

• Many leaders stress that we should reach an agreement before August
• First discussion of plan and next budget was very positive
• There was a lot of focus on green and digital transformation of EU economy
• Overall size, balance of grans and loans and allocation key, rebates and own resources were all controversial

The Department of Commerce reported on Friday that current account (C/A) gap in the U.S. narrowed by 0.1 percent q-o-q to $104.2 billion in the first quarter of 2020 from a downwardly revised $104.3 billion gap in the previous quarter (originally -$109.8 billion). This was the lowest shortfall since the second quarter of 2018, in part due to the impact of COVID-19, as many businesses were operating at limited capacity or ceased operations completely, and the movement of travelers across borders was restricted.

The deficit was 1.9 percentage of current-dollar GDP in the first quarter, p less than 0.1 percentage point from the fourth quarter of 2019.

Economists had forecast a deficit of $103 billion.

According to the report, the $0.1 billion narrowing of the C/A deficit in the first quarter mainly reflected a reduced deficit on goods that was largely offset by a decreased surplus on primary income and an expanded deficit on secondary income.

Exports of goods and services to, and income received from, foreign residents fell $47.5 billion, to $902.3 billion, in the first quarter. At the same time, imports of goods and services from, and income paid to, foreign residents dropped $47.7 billion, to $1.01 trillion.

Receipts of primary income declined $27.8 billion, to $255.1 billion, and payments of primary income fell $18.3 billion, to $202.7 billion. The decreases in both receipts and payments mainly reflected drops in direct investment income, mainly earnings.

Meanwhile, receipts of secondary income rose $0.3 billion, to $34.8 billion, and payments of secondary income increased $1.5 billion, to $72.4 billion, mainly reflected increases in private transfers, primarily private sector fines and penalties. mainly reflecting advances in private transfers, primarily private sector fines and penalties.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Apple (AAPL) target raised to $405 from $370 at Jefferies

Walt Disney (DIS) target raised to $118 from $107 at Wells Fargo

DuPont (DD) target raised to $65 from $60 at Wells Fargo

NIKE (NKE) target raised to $110 from $95 at Telsey Advisory Group 

Statistics Canada reported on Friday that the Canadian retail sales tumbled 26.4 percent m-o-m at CAD34.72 billion in April, following an unrevised 10.0 percent m-o-m plunge in March (originally a 10.0 percent m-o-m decline). That was the largest monthly drop on record.

Economists had forecast a 15.1 percent m-o-m fall for April.

According to the report, sales were down in all 11 subsectors, with motor vehicle and parts dealers (-44.3 percent m-o-m), food and beverage stores (-12.7 percent m-o-m) and gasoline stations (-32.2 percent m-o-m) contributing the most to the April decrease.

Excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales dropped 22.0 percent m-o-m in April compared to an unrevised 0.4 percent m-o-m decrease in March and economists’ forecast for a 13.5 percent m-o-m drop. Excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations, retail sales fell 20.7 percent m-o-m in April.

In y-o-y terms, Canadian retail sales tumbled 32.5 percent in April, following an unrevised 8.4 percent tumble in March.

EUR/USD: Risk of a deeper corrective setback, support awaits at 1.1160 – Credit Suisse

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse note that EUR/USD remains under pressure and has just lost the 1.12 level after its daily MACD momentum turned lower. The risk for further corrective weakness remains high with support seen at 1.1160.

“EUR/USD has been capped at near-term resistance at 1.1295 and with the market closing below key support from the 13-day average and with daily MACD momentum having crossed lower our bias remains for a deeper corrective setback.” Support is seen next at 1.1185/84, then 1.1160/54, then the 38.2% retracement of the entire rally from March at 1.1122, which we look to then hold for a fresh attempt to establish a low. Should weakness directly extend we would see the next meaningful support at the 50% retracement and rising 200-day average, where we would look for a better floor to be found.”

“Near-term resistance moves to the 13-day average at 1.1233. Above 1.1263 is now needed to reassert a bullish bias for strength back to 1.1339 then a retest of key resistance from the medium-term downtrend and 38.2% retracement of the 2018/2020 fall at 1.1357/69. This remains seen as the barrier to a move to 1.1423/28, then the high for the year at 1.1495.”

GBP weakened against its major rivals in the European session on Friday as a surge in the UK's public debt outweighed a stronger-than-expected recovery in retail sales. 

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that retail sales in the UK climbed 12 percent m/m in May, the most on record, recovering from a record 18 percent m/m  plunge in April. Economists had forecast a 5.7 percent m/m advance. Non-food stores provided the largest positive contribution to the monthly growth in May, aided by a jump of 42.0 percent in household goods sales. Still, compared with the same month last year, retail sales were down 13.1 percent.

Meanwhile, another report from ONS revealed that the UK's public sector net debt excluding public sector banks (PSND ex) was 100.9 percent of GDP, the first time that debt as a percentage of GDP has exceeded 100 percent since the financial year ending March 1963. PSND ex at the end of May was GBP1,950.1 billion, an increase of GBP173.2 billion (or 20.5 percentage points) compared with May 2019, the largest y/y gain in debt as a percentage of GDP on record. At the same time, public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks (PSNB ex) totaled GBP55.2 billion in May, roughly nine times or GBP49.6 billion more than in May 2019. This was the highest borrowing in any month on record since 1993. The ONS stressed that the COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a significant impact on the UK public sector finances.

The risk of the UK leaving the EU with no trade deal also continued to weigh on sterling. British PM Boris Johnson told French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday that he saw no need for the post-Brexit trade talks to drag on until the Autumn.

FXStreet reports that economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann assessed the latest labour market report in the Australian economy.

“The Australian economy lost another 227,700 jobs in May, significantly more than the 78,800 losses consensus was expecting, and following the revised 607,400 losses (594,300 losses previously) in April. This is the second-largest monthly loss of jobs on record, way ahead of the third biggest of 65,400 job losses in October 1982.”

“The unemployment rate soared to 7.1% - the highest since October 2001, when 7.2% of the labour force was without work – from a revised 6.4% (6.2% previously) in April, worse than expectations for 6.9%. The participation rate continues to fall, from a revised 63.6% (63.5% previously) to 62.9%, the lowest level since January 2001, reflecting the fact some Australians have given up on the idea of work altogether in the current economic climate.”

“Earlier in June, Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy told the Senate’s COVID-19 committee it had updated its forecast to suggest Australia was on track for 8% unemployment in the September quarter, down from expected peaks of up to 10%. It was also revealed that Australia's true jobless rate would be almost double, as the JobKeeper wage subsidies program disguised the real number of people without work.”

“More importantly, today’s job figures intensify the political debate about how to handle the expiry of the JobKeeper program and whether Australians are best supported by wage subsidies or the jobseeker unemployment payment. The government has stressed at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic that a wage subsidy was required to keep workers connected to their jobs whilst the economy entered a period of hibernation, but PM Morrison is now signaling the welfare system is the way to help Australians into “real jobs” during the recovery. He added that the government was awaiting further data before deciding how best to balance the programs. The change is expected to be included in an economic statement on 23 July.”

FXStreet reports that according to analysts at Credit Suisse, S&P 500 remains well supported and whilst gap/price support at 3076/66 holds the immediate risk stays seen higher. Resistance is seen at 3153 and then at the top of the price gap from last week at 3190.

“Another quiet session for the S&P 500 but the market continues to hold its rising 13-day exponential as well as its price gap from Tuesday at 3076/66 and this leaves the immediate bias higher in what for now is viewed as a high-level consolidation range. We note though ‘triple witching’ option expiry and large re-balancing today though may provide some volatility.”

“Immediate support is seen at 3099/94 with an immediate upside bias seen in place whilst above 3076/66. Resistance is seen at 3153 initially, above which can see strength extend back to the top of the price gap from last week at 3181/90. With daily MACD momentum still holding a bearish cross we continue to look for this to then ideally cap for a move lower in the looked-for range.” 

“Above 3190 though can see the risk stay higher for a test of the potential downtrend from the February peak, today seen at 3213/15. Beneath 3066 can ease the immediate upside bias to reinforce the broader ranging scenario, with support then seen next at 3044 ahead of the 200-day average at 3018.”

FXStreet reports that economist Lee Sue Ann at UOB Group assessed the recently published GDP figures for the first quarter in New Zealand.

“New Zealand’s GDP fell by 1.6% q/q in the first three months of the year, way below expectations for a -1.0% q/q print, and the +0.5% q/q reading in 4Q19. This was the first contraction in growth since late 2010 and the biggest single quarterly fall since 1991. From a year earlier, the economy shrank 0.2% y/y, the first annual contraction since 2009. The first quarter contraction was driven by service industries, particularly hospitality (-7.8% q/q) as international travel stopped. There were also falls in the construction (-4.1% q/q) and transport, postal, and warehousing industries (-5.2% q/q). Household consumption expenditure also fell (-0.3% q/q).”

“New Zealand responded proactively to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, by closing its border and implementing a stricter nationwide lockdown that stayed in place until mid-May. The country started to experience the economic impact as border measures were stepped up following the first case on 28 February. PM Jacinda Ardern eventually took the unprecedented step of closing the borders to all foreigners on 19 March. Then, in the final week of the quarter on 25 March, the nation was placed into lockdown, requiring almost all retailers other than supermarkets to close and shutting down building sites and most factories.”

“As such, we are expecting the bulk of the economic impact to hit in the second quarter. We are likely to see a much more significant fall in household consumption amid the surge in unemployment, following the scaling back and subsequent termination of the wage subsidy scheme, together with a large reduction in net inward migration and a loss in housing wealth. Business investment will remain subdued, reflecting weak business confidence and low capacity utilization. We see a record slump in 2Q20 to -16.6% y/y, followed by contractions of -6.1% y/y in 3Q20 and -3.5% y/y in 4Q20. This brings our full-year 2020 GDP forecast at -6.6%, compared to -1.0% previously projected in our March quarterly update.”

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse note that EUR/GBP looks close to confirming a bull ‘triangle’, which would be completed on a break above the 0.9056/57 level. 

“EUR/GBP saw a stronger session yesterday after holding support from its rising 21-day exponential average for a break above near-term price resistance at 0.9025/28, but with strength then capped just shy of the April/May “measured base objective” and May at 0.9056/57.” 

“Above 0.9056, which we look for, is needed to confirm a bull ‘triangle’ and resumption of the uptrend from March with resistance then seen next at the 50% retracement of the March/April fall at 0.9086 and eventually at the 61.8% retracement at 0.9184.”

“Near-term support moves to 0.8991, then 0.8970, with 0.8938 now ideally holding to keep the immediate risk higher. Below would warn of further sideways ranging and a retreat back to 0.8909.”

FXStreet reports that Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, noted the potential use of negative rates by the RBNZ still remains as a (very) long shot.

“The last monetary policy meeting in May culminated in the RBNZ keeping the overnight cash rate (OCR) steady at a record-low of 0.25%. However, the Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) programme was expanded to a potential NZD60bn (around 20% of GDP), from its previous limit of NZD33bn.”

“In the accompanying press release, the RBNZ stated that “the Monetary Policy Committee is prepared to use additional monetary policy tools if and when needed, including reducing the OCR further, adding other types of assets to the LSAP programme, and providing fixed term loans to banks. The minutes of the May meeting revealed that policymakers discussed the option of a negative OCR in future, although at present financial institutions are not yet operationally ready.”

“We cannot rule out the possibility of negative interest rates in time, but that will come with considerable baggage and we do not expect the RBNZ to employ that option at this juncture. QE needs to run its course first. On that front, there is no reason to think that QE will be less effective in New Zealand despite the small government bond market. For now, we think the RBNZ will continue to use volume announcements (eg. the programme is currently NZD60bn in size) as it fine-tunes its policy stance. We expect QE to be expanded to a cap of NZD90bn by August. Another option for the RBNZ is to adjust the QE programme to a type of “yield curve control” (or YCC), as used in Australia.”

FXStreet reports that USD/JPY remains under pressure after losing the 107.00 level and analysts at Credit Suisse continue to look for the risk to turn back lower with support seen at 106.67/57. 

“With support at 107.00/106.92 removed we continue to look for the trend to turn meaningfully lower again. Support is seen initially at 106.67/57 ahead of 106.38/31 and then the 105.98 May low. Whilst a fresh rebound from this latter level should be allowed for, a break in due course can see the downtrend extend with support next at 105.20 – the 61.8% retracement of the March rally. We would then look for a fresh hold here.”

“Near-term resistance remains at 107.13/17, then 107.45. Above 107.64 is needed to clear the way for a deeper recovery in the broader sideways range with resistance next at 108.21/24, then 108.55/60, with fresh sellers expected here.”

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group expect USD/CNH to trade between 7.0500 and 7.1250 in the next weeks.

24-hour view: “USD traded between 7.0622 and 7.0870 (narrower than our expected 7.0650/7.0920 range) before ending the day little changed at 7.0820 (+0.08%). The price action offers no fresh clues and USD could continue to trade sideways for today, likely between 7.0650 and 7.0910.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “USD traded in a quiet manner for the past few days and there is not much to add to our update from Monday (15 Jun, spot at 7.0880). As highlighted, the current movement in USD is deemed as part of consolidation phase and USD is expected to trade between 7.0500 and 7.1250 for a period.”

According to the report from European Central Bank,  the current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €14 billion in April 2020, decreasing by €13 billion from the previous month. Surpluses were recorded for goods (€13 billion), primary income (€9 billion) and services (€4 billion). These were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€12 billion). Amid the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the measures implemented to contain its spread, exports and imports of goods and services continued to decrease compared with the previous month and stood at significantly lower levels than in April 2019.

In the 12-month period to April 2020, the current account recorded a surplus of €334 billion (2.8% of euro area GDP), compared with a surplus of €329 billion (2.8% of euro area GDP) in the 12 months to April 2019.

In the financial account, euro area residents made net acquisitions of foreign portfolio investment securities totalling €394 billion in the 12-month period to April 2020 (up from €64 billion in the 12 months to April 2019). Over the same period, non-residents made net acquisitions of euro area portfolio investment securities amounting to €306 billion (up from €44 billion).

Reuters reports that the European Central Bank will cut the frequency of its dollar swap operations conducted in partnership with the U.S. Federal Reserve as funding conditions have improved, it said on Friday.

The ECB, along with other major central banks like the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, will offer 7-day dollar funds three times a week instead of daily while 84-day operations will continue to be conducted weekly.

The change will be effective July 1 and the new frequency will be in place “as long as appropriate”.

FXStreet reports that the economic policy implemented in response to the COVID crisis has two major problems as it is leading to a sharp increase in companies’ debt and to asset price bubbles. According to Patrick Artus from natixis the ECB could have avoided these two problems by creating money in exchange for subscriptions to corporate capital increases.

“The economic policy implemented in response to the COVID crisis has two major problems. It is leading to a sharp increase in companies’ debt, which may jeopardise their capacity to invest and it is leading to asset price bubbles due to the extent of money creation when investors reinvest the money they receive in other asset classes. Once confidence returns, one should therefore expect a sharp rise in share prices and in real estate prices.”

“The ECB could have avoided these two problems and continued to support the financing of the economy by using a different method: subscriptions to increases in companies’ capital or quasi-capital (subordinated debt). The money creation would have been the same, but it would have had the corollary of increasing companies’ equity and not their debt.”

CNBC reports that China’s bond market is the exception, as investors struggle in their hunt for yield, UBS Asset Management’s Hayden Briscoe said.

Major central banks around the world have taken drastic steps, like slashing or maintaining record low interest rates, to shore up financial markets reeling from the coronavirus pandemic.

The yield on the 10-year China government bond last stood at 2.913% as of Friday afternoon Singapore time.

“You’ve got one of the highest nominal yields in the world and ... very, very importantly for bond investors, you’ve got one of the highest real yields in the world,” Briscoe, head of fixed income for Asia Pacific at UBS, told CNBC’ on Friday.

Briscoe explained that a top concern for investors right now is offsetting risk assets. He asked, “With most bond markets close to zero or if not deeply negative in yields, where are you gonna go today?”

In comparison, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stood at just 0.7019%. Over in Japan, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond was a dismal 0.011%, while the 10-year German bund yield sits in negative territory.

“The Chinese bond market, to us, looks like the standout bond market globally today,” Briscoe said.

Bloomberg reports that U.S. equity volatility won’t likely return to normal levels until there’s a vaccine for Covid-19, according to Cantor Fitzgerald LP.

The Cboe Volatility Index has more than halved since its mid-March closing peak of just below 83 to trade around the 33 level Thursday. That’s still almost 15 points above its lifetime average of 19, and it may not retreat much further anytime soon, strategist Eric Johnston said in a June 18 note.

“Given continued uncertainties as the economy reopens, an upcoming election, along with the daily bid for volatility ahead of case data on select U.S. states, we don’t foresee a VIX below 20 until an approved vaccine for Covid is achieved,” he wrote.

Cantor recommends investors buy call options on the VIX -- a bet on an increase in market swings -- when the gauge reaches the mid-20s.

FXStreet reports that NZD/USD saw another quiet night, trading around 0.6420, as markets are balancing between a second wave of coronavirus and a rebound fueled by the reopening. Economists at ANZ Bank thinks kiwi’s fair value is 0.65 the risks are slightly skewed to the downside. 

“Another night of consolidation (or hesitation and reflection) for the Kiwi as markets weighed up the competing ‘narratives’: virus comeback or re-open/rebound? Which will it be?”

“With the pace of QE now pared back a touch (the BoE the latest to taper) and local GDP data disappointing, it’s not hard to envisage a wayward exploratory journey lower for the Kiwi, especially with new cases here highlighting vulnerabilities.” 

“Fair value is 0.65; strategically we’re neutral with risks in both directions, but the scales possibly tipped a tad lower just now.”

“Support 0.6370 Resistance 0.6500”

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar was trading steadily against the euro and the yen. The ICE index, which tracks the dollar's performance against six currencies (the Euro, Swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and Swedish Krona), fell 0.1%.

The day before, the US currency rose against the background of a new wave of growth in demand for assets of the "safe haven" in connection with data on an increase in the number of infections with coronavirus infection, including in the US. In addition, data on the us labor market released on Thursday indicated a more significant than expected number of new applications for unemployment benefits filed last week.

The government of Japan slightly improved its assessment of the situation in the economy, saying that the decline is close to the bottom point, as the economy is gradually opening up following the lifting of the state of emergency that was in effect in the country in connection with the coronavirus pandemic.

The economy remains in an "extremely difficult situation," but the situation has "almost stopped getting worse," according to the monthly report of the Cabinet of Ministers published on Friday. The assessment of the situation in the economy has been improved by the Japanese government for the first time since January 2018.

FXStreet reports that in the view of David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, the US equity indices, including the S&P 500, are unlikely to retest March lows and will remain range-bound going forward.

“Markets are probably going to remain range-bound here until we see some sort of significant breakthrough either on the medical front or on the economic front.”

I also think it’s important to recognize that the market has essentially written off 2020 and is wholly focused on 2021.”

“Part of what gives us a little bit more confidence that we’re not necessarily going to retest the lows that we saw in March is really the fact that we have a lot more information today around the virus itself, around what an economic lockdown looks like.”

“And while I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of pullback here and I think that would create an opportunity across the equity market broadly, I don’t think we need to go all the way back down to where we were in the month of March.”

According to the report from Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), in May 2020 the index of producer prices for industrial products decreased by 2.2% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. Economists had expected a 2.1% decrease. In April the annual rate of change all over had been –1.9%. Compared with the preceding month April the overall index fell by 0.4% in May 2020 (-0.7% in April). Economists had expected a 0.3% decrease.

Energy prices as a whole decreased by 7.9% (-1.2% compared to April 2020). On an annual basis, prices of petroleum products were down 27.5%. They fell by 3.1% compared to April 2020. A great part of this decrease presumably is due to the fallen decline in demand during the Corona pandemic. Prices of natural gas (distribution) decreased by 13.4%.

The overall index disregarding energy was 0.3% down on May 2019 and fell by 0.2% compared to April 2020.

Prices of intermediate goods decreased by 2.6% compared to May 2019 (-0.1% on April 2020). Prices decreased especially regarding basic iron, steel and ferro-alloys (-9.6%) as well as paper and paperboard (-5.8%) and basic chemicals (-8.2%). Prices of cereal flour were down 3.5%. By contrast, prices of precious metals increased by 25.6% compared to May 2019. Prices of articles of concrete, cement and plaster rose by 3.7%.

Prices of non-durable consumer goods increased by 1.3% compared to May 2019 (-1.1% on April 2020). Food prices were up 1.5% on May 2019. The price of sugar increased by 17.5%. Prices of meat and poultry meat products rose by 14.1%. By contrast, prices of swine fresh or chilled fell by 7.2% (-12.5% on April 2020). In addition, butter prices fell by 25.2% compared to May 2019 and prices for processed and preserved potatoes were 8.6 % down on May 2019.

According to the report from Office for National Statistics, retail sales volumes partly rebounded in May 2020 with an increase of 12.0% when compared with the record falls experienced in the previous month. Economists had expected a 5.7% increase. In annual terms, retail sales fell by 13.1% after falling by 22.7% in April.

Non-food stores provided the largest positive contribution to the monthly growth in May 2020, aided by a strong increase of 42.0% in household goods stores, with the opening of hardware, paints and glass stores reflected in this sector.

The proportion spent online soared to the highest proportion on record in May 2020 at 33.4%, which compares with the 30.8% reported in April 2020.

While there was a strong increase in the volume of fuel sales in May 2020, levels still remain 42.5% lower than February 2020, before government travel restrictions were in place.

In the three months to May 2020, the volume of retail sales decreased by a record 12.8%, with declines across all stores except food and non-store retailing.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1340 (1567)

$1.1310 (1316)

$1.1286 (1182)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1214

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1170 (580)

$1.1145 (673)

$1.1113 (1009)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 2 is 48949 contracts (according to data from June, 18) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1700 (2287);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2632 (557)

$1.2564 (438)

$1.2513 (499)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2447

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2394 (1009)

$1.2380 (1487)

$1.2362 (873)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 2 is 15108 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (1694);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 2 is 18213 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2550 (1487);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.21 versus 1.16 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 18

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.