CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 20-09-2017

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 50.73 +0.08%

Gold 1,304.50 -0.90%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +11.08 20310.46 +0.05%

TOPIX +0.04 1667.92 +0.00%

Hang Seng +76.39 28127.80 +0.27%

CSI 300 +10.32 3842.44 +0.27%

Euro Stoxx 50 -5.63 3525.55 -0.16%

FTSE 100 -3.30 7271.95 -0.05%

DAX +7.38 12569.17 +0.06%

CAC 40 +4.22 5241.66 +0.08%

DJIA +41.79 22412.59 +0.19%

S&P 500 +1.59 2508.24 +0.06%

NASDAQ -5.28 6456.04 -0.08%

S&P/TSX +96.63 15389.60 +0.63%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1893 -0,85%

GBP/USD $1,3496 -0,06%

USD/CHF Chf0,96964 +0,76%

USD/JPY Y112,29 +0,64%

EUR/JPY Y133,55 -0,20%

GBP/JPY Y151,549 +0,65%

AUD/USD $0,8032 +0,32%

NZD/USD $0,7354 +0,54%

USD/CAD C$1,23248 +0,30%

1:30 Australia RBA Bulletin

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m July 0.4%

05:10 Australia RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks

05:45 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance August 3.5

06:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

08:00 Eurozone ECB Economic Bulletin

08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals August 41.58

08:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln August 0.76

12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m July -0.5% -0.9%

12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1944 1980

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 284 300

12:30 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey September 18.9 17.2

13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m July 0.1%

13:30 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Preliminary) September -1.5 -1.5

14:00 U.S. Leading Indicators August 0.3% 0.2%

US stock indices fell strongly in response to the results of the Fed meeting, but then regained lost ground and ended the session mostly in positive territory.

The Fed left the interest rate range for federal funds unchanged, between 1.00% and 1.25%, but hinted at the possibility of another rate hike in 2017, despite the fact that low inflation caused some managers to doubt the feasibility of such a move .

According to the Fed's average forecast, the interest rate will be 1.4% this year and 2.1% in 2018, as the recent CBR forecast. In the long term, the Fed expects that the rate will be 2.8%, and not 3%, and the current cycle of rate increases will be completed by 2020. Meanwhile, according to the forecast of the Fed, the target inflation rate will be reached in 2019, and not in 2018. This year inflation is expected to grow to 1.6%. Also, the Fed said it expects GDP growth of 2.4% in 2017 (in June the forecast was + 2.2%). In 2018, GDP is expected to grow by 2.1%, in 2019 - by 2%. As for employment, managers expect a drop in the unemployment rate from the current 4.4% to 4.3% this year.

Negligible impact on the course of trading also provided data on the United States. The National Association of Realtors reported that home sales in the secondary market fell for the fourth time in five months, as restrained supply levels continue to reduce overall activity. Sales growth in the Northeast and Midwest has outpaced the decline in the South and West. Total secondary home sales, which are completed transactions including single-family homes, urban homes, condominiums and cooperatives, fell 1.7%, seasonally adjusted to an annual rate of 5.35 million in August from 5.44 million in July. The sales level last month was 0.2% higher than last August, and is the lowest since then.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in positive territory (20 out of 30). The leader of growth was the shares of McDonald's Corporation (MCD, + 1.47%). Outsider were the shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL, -1.85%).

The S & P sector showed mixed dynamics. The raw materials sector grew most (+ 0.4%). The largest decrease was shown by the consumer goods sector (-0.8%).

At closing:

DJIA + 0.18% 22.411.25 +40.45

Nasdaq -0.08% 6,456.04 -5.28

S & P + 0.06% 2.508.17 +1.52

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 472.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased 2.1 million barrels last week, but are in the upper half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 5.7 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels last week but are in the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 6.6 million barrels last week.

Existing-home sales stumbled in August for the fourth time in five months as strained supply levels continue to subdue overall activity, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales gains in the Northeast and Midwest were outpaced by declines in the South and West.

Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, retreated 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million in August from 5.44 million in July. Last month's sales pace is 0.2 percent above last August, and is the lowest since then.

EURUSD: 1.1950 (EUR 500 млн) 1.2000 (1.05 млрд) 1.2050 (300 млн) 1.2100 (620 млн)

USDJPY: 109.00 (USD 755 млн) 109.20 (300 млн) 109.50 (395 млн) 110.00 (515 млн) 110.75(350 млн) 111.00-10 (525 млн) 112.00 (310 млн) 112.50 (350 млн)

AUDUSD: 0.8000 (AUD 775 млн) 0.8025-25 (320 млн)

U.S. stock-index futures were flat on were little changed on Wednesday, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's rate decision and press conference of its Chair Janet Yellen.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 20,310.46 +11.08 +0.05%

Hang Seng 28,127.80 +76.39 +0.27%

Shanghai 3,366.37 +9.52 +0.28%

S&P/ASX 5,709.09 -4.49 -0.08%

FTSE 7,274.56 -0.69 -0.01%

CAC 5,242.67 +5.23 +0.10%

DAX 12,553.06 -8.73 -0.07%

Crude $50.46 (+1.12%)

Gold $1,316.80 (+0.47%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

3M (MMM) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; target raised to $130 from $125

Pfizer (PFE) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

FedEx (FDX) reported Q1 FY 2018 earnings of $2.65 per share (versus $2.90 in Q1 FY 2017), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $3.09.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $15.300 bln (+4.1% y/y), generally in-line with analysts' consensus estimate of $15.354 bln.

The company also issued downside guidance for FY2018, projecting EPS of $12.00-12.80 versus analysts' consensus estimate of $13.38.

FDX fell to $213.00 (-1.39%) in pre-market trading.

• 2017 world growth of 3.5 pct (unchanged from june estimates), 3.7 pct in 2018 (+0.1 pct point)

• UK growth of 1.6 pct in 2017, 1.0 pct in 2018 (both unchanged)

• Japanese growth of 1.6 pct in 2017 (+0.2), 1.2 pct in 2018 (+0.2)

• Chinese growth of 6.8 pct in 2017 (+0.2), 6.6 pct in 2018 (+0.2)

EURUSD: 1.1950 (EUR 500m) 1.2000 (1.05bln) 1.2050 (300m) 1.2100 (620m)

USDJPY: 109.00 (USD 755m) 109.20 (300m) 109.50 (395m) 110.00 (515m) 110.75(350m) 111.00-10 (525m) 112.00 (310m) 112.50 (350m)

AUDUSD: 0.8000 (AUD 775m) 0.8025-25 (320m)

In August 2017, the quantity bought (volume) in the retail sales industry increased by 1.0% compared with July 2017; with other non-food stores and non-store retailing as the main contributors to growth.

Compared with August 2016, the quantity bought increased by 2.4%; the 52nd consecutive month of year-on-year increase in retail sales.

Year-on-year contribution of food stores remains flat whilst there was a fall in the contribution of growth within petrol stations, showing that contributions to the overall growth came from non-essential items.

The underlying pattern in the retail industry is one of growth, three-months on three-months the quantity bought has increased by 1.2%.

Store prices increased across all store types on the year, with non-food stores and non-store retailing recording their highest year-on-year price growth since March 1992, at 3.2% and 3.3% respectively.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2117 (3181)

$1.2085 (3171)

$1.2056 (496)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1999

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1938 (3365)

$1.1906 (3231)

$1.1870 (4301)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 6 is 98630 contracts (according to data from September, 19) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1800 (4877);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3613 (1525)

$1.3591 (2510)

$1.3572 (2201)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3516

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3438 (425)

$1.3411 (330)

$1.3380 (167)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 6 is 31328 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3300 (2510);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 33778 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2950 (2496);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.08 versus 1.09 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 19

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

In August 2017 the index of producer prices for industrial products rose by 2.6% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In July 2017 the annual rate of change all over had been 2.3%, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office.

Compared with the preceding month July 2017 the overall index rose by 0.2% in August 2017 (+0.2% in July and unchanged in June).

In August 2017 the price indices of all main industrial groups increased compared with August 2016: Prices of non-durable consumer goods rose by 3.6%, prices of intermediate goods by 3.3%. Energy prices rose by 2.7%, though the development of prices of the different energy carriers diverged. Prices of electricity increased by 5.8% and prices of petroleum products by 5.1%, whereas prices of natural gas (distribution) decreased by 6.4%. Prices of durable consumer goods and prices of capital goods increased each by 1.0%.

The overall index disregarding energy was 2.6% up on August 2016 and rose by 0.1% compared with July 2017.

For the year ended June 2017, New Zealand's current account deficit was $7.5 billion (2.8 percent of GDP; it was 2.7 percent of GDP for the June 2016 year).

The seasonally adjusted current account balance was a $1,598 million deficit in the June 2017 quarter ($1,187 million smaller than the March 2017 quarter's deficit).

The goods deficit decreased $677 million to reach $446 million.

The services surplus increased $295 million to reach $1,280 million, the highest on record.

New Zealand's primary income deficit decreased to $1,910 million in the June 2017 quarter, $403 million smaller than in the March 2017 quarter.

New Zealand's secondary income deficit increased to $522 million in the June 2017 quarter, $188 million larger than the March 2017 quarter deficit.

The capital account balance was a deficit of $14 million for the June 2017 quarter, down from the surplus of $3 million in the March 2017 quarter.

• Geopolitical risk in Asia has increased, while lessening in the euro area

• Household debt on its own unlikely to trigger such a shock

• High household debt in Australia is a risk in the event of an economic shock

• Policy globally will have to stay expansionary should inflation remain low

• Still believes global wage growth and inflation will pick up, but may take some time

European stocks swung between small gains and losses on Tuesday, with investors staying cautious ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting that will be scrutinized for hints on future U.S. monetary policy. The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, +0.04% ended marginally higher at 382.12, after trading in a relatively tight range during the session.

U.S. stocks extended gains Tuesday with all three main benchmarks closing at records as the Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting where they are expected to finalize the details on the unwinding of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.18% rose 42 points, or 0.2%, to end at 22,373, its sixth straight record finish, while the S&P 500 SPX, +0.11% added 2 points, or 0.1%, to 2,506, logging its fourth record close in a row.

Equity trading across Asia was muted early Wednesday on caution before the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy announcement. After a solid start to the week, markets were treading water as investors awaited monetary policy guidance from the Federal Open Market Committee. Most investors aren't expecting interest rates to rise.