CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 21-09-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +37.02 20347.48 +0.18%

TOPIX +0.82 1668.74 +0.05%

Hang Seng -17.47 28110.33 -0.06%

CSI 300 -4.62 3837.82 -0.12%

Euro Stoxx 50 +14.04 3539.59 +0.40%

FTSE 100 -8.05 7263.90 -0.11%

DAX +30.86 12600.03 +0.25%

CAC 40 +25.63 5267.29 +0.49%

DJIA -53.36 22359.23 -0.24%

S&P 500 -7.64 2500.60 -0.30%

NASDAQ -33.35 6422.69 -0.52%

S&P/TSX +65.32 15454.92 +0.42%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1939 +0,38%

GBP/USD $1,3578 +0,60%

USD/CHF Chf0,97047 +0,09%

USD/JPY Y112,40 +0,10%

EUR/JPY Y134,20 +0,49%

GBP/JPY Y152,622 +0,70%

AUD/USD $0,7931 -1,27%

NZD/USD $0,7310 -0,60%

USD/CAD C$1,23206 -0,03%

00:01 New Zealand Parliamentary Elections

07:00 France Services PMI (Preliminary) September 54.9 54.8

07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) September 55.8 55.5

07:30 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) September 53.5 53.8

07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) September 59.3 59

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) September 54.7 54.7

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) September 57.4 57.1

08:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance September 13 13

12:30 Canada Retail Sales YoY July 7.3%

12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m July 0.1% 0.1%

12:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m July 0.7% 0.4%

12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y August 1.2% 1.5%

12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m August 0% 0.2%

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y August 0.9%

13:00 Belgium Business Climate September -2.1 -1.8

13:15 Eurozone ECB's Vitor Constancio Speaks

13:30 U.S. FOMC Member Esther George Speaks

13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) September 52.8 53

13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) September 56 55.9

17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count September 749

17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Kaplan Speak

Major US stock indices declined moderately on Thursday, weighed down by the fall of shares of the technological giant Apple and the Federal Reserve's hints about higher interest rates for the third time, despite low inflation.

In addition, as it became known, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, but the data was still influenced by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, who in the near future will distort the picture of the labor market. Initial applications for unemployment benefits fell by 23,000 to 259,000, seasonally adjusted for the week ending September 16, the Ministry of Labor said. Data for the previous week were revised, and showed 2000 fewer applications than previously reported.

At the same time, the report submitted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed that the index of business activity in the production sector increased in September, reaching a level of 23.8 points compared to 18.9 points in August. Economists had expected the decline to 17.2 points

In addition, the Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board in August increased by 0.4% to 128.8, after rising by 0.3% in July and by 0.6% in June. The index of coinciding indicators did not change in August, and amounted to 115.8, after an increase of 0.3 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. The index of lagging indicators increased by 0.3 percent in August to 125.2 (2010 = 100), after an increase of 0.2 percent in July and 0.2 percent in June.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in the red (19 out of 30). Outsider were the shares of The Procter & Gamble Company (PG, -1.91%). The leader of growth was shares of General Electric Company (GE, + 1.77%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P index recorded a decline. The largest drop was shown by the consumer goods sector (-0.8%). The industrial goods sector grew most (+ 0.4%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.24% 22,359.23 -53.36

Nasdaq -0.52% 6,422.69 -33.35

S & P -0.30% 2,500.60 -7.64

EURUSD: 1.1750 (EUR 900m) 1.1800 (1.3bln) 1.1950 (1.65bnln) 1.2000 (515m) 1.2100 (1.14bln)

USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 1.9bln) 111.00 (590m)

AUDUSD: 0.7900 (AUD 375m) 0.8100 (700m)

U.S. house prices rose in July, up 0.2 percent from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.1 percent increase in June remained the same.

The FHFA monthly HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. From July 2016 to July 2017, house prices were up 6.3 percent.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from June 2017 to July 2017 ranged from -0.5 percent in the West North Central and Pacific divisions to +0.6 percent in the East North Central division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +4.2 percent in the West North Central division to +8.2 percent in the Mountain and Pacific divisions.

Wholesale sales rose 1.5% to $62.4 billion in July, following a 0.6% decline in June. Sales were up in five of the seven subsectors, representing 86% of total wholesale sales. The building material and supplies and the food, beverage and tobacco subsectors contributed the most to the advance.

In volume terms, wholesale sales were up 2.1%.

The building material and supplies subsector reported the largest gain in dollar terms in July, increasing 4.8% to $9.0 billion. Two of three industries within the subsector reported higher sales-led by the lumber, millwork, hardware and other building supplies industry (+9.6%)-which posted its fourth increase in five months.

Sales in the food, beverage and tobacco subsector rose 2.4% to $12.2 billion in July, following a 1.2% decline in June. All three industries in the subsector increased, led by the food industry-up 1.3% to $10.9 billion-mostly erasing the 1.4% decline in June.

In the week ending September 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 259,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 284,000 to 282,000. The 4-week moving average was 268,750, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since June 4, 2016 when it was 269,500. The previous week's average was revised down by 500 from 263,250 to 262,750. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma impacted this week's claims.

U.S. stock-index futures were flat on Thursday, a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled that it could hike interest rates for the third time this year despite weak inflation and disclosed plans to reduce its $4.5 balance sheet.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 20,347.48 +37.02 +0.18%

Hang Seng 28,110.33 -17.47 -0.06%

Shanghai 3,358.19 -7.80 -0.23%

S&P/ASX 5,655.42 -53.67 -0.94%

FTSE 7,263.74 -8.21 -0.11%

CAC 5,270.61 +28.95 +0.55%

DAX 12,603.46 +34.29 +0.27%

Crude $50.26 (-0.85%)

Gold $1,291.30 (-1.91%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £0.2 billion to £28.3 billion in the current financial year-to-date (April 2017 to August 2017), compared with the same period in 2016; this is the lowest year-to-date net borrowing since 2007.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast that public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) will be £58.3 billion during the financial year ending March 2018.

Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £1.3 billion to £5.7 billion in August 2017, compared with August 2016; this is the lowest August net borrowing since 2007.

• Surveys and short-term indicators confirm the outlook for robust growth momentum in thenear term

• The swift decline in unemployment is particularly encouraging; broader slack still elevated

• Global economic activity is projected to accelerate gradually; UK growth to remain relatively muted

• Says household credit growth remains high, low house price inflation will curb debt accumulation but it will take time for household vulnerabilities to

• Sees 2018 oil industry investments +1.3 pct vs june forecast of +1.0 pct

• Says the decision was unanimous

• The improvement in the labour market has occurred at a somewhat faster pace than assumed in june

• Sees 2018 crown exchange rate at 102.4 vs june forecast of 103.7

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2007 (3173)

$1.1975 (1521)

$1.1947 (574)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1893

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1839 (4784)

$1.1808 (2675)

$1.1772 (4716)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 6 is 98329 contracts (according to data from September, 20) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1900 (4784);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3616 (749)

$1.3576 (1525)

$1.3550 (2510)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3507

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3447 (680)

$1.3427 (447)

$1.3403 (331)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 6 is 31370 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3300 (2510);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 34081 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2950 (2495);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.09 versus 1.08 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 20

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Because of the weak performance in the first half of the year, the Federal Government's Expert Group anticipates only moderate GDP growth of 0.9% in 2017. Over the coming quarters, though, solid momentum in the global economy is set to support the export sector, while the domestic sector is also expected to gather pace.

Sizeable GDP growth of 2.0% is therefore expected for 2018. Accelerating growth will bring a marked increase in employment and a further decline in the unemployment rate. Positive and negative risks to the outlook are more balanced than in previous quarters.

GDP measured by production was up 0.8 percent in the June 2017 quarter. This follows a revised 0.6 percent increase in the March 2017 quarter.

Growth for the year ended June 2017 was 2.7 percent, compared with 2.9 percent growth for the year ended March 2017.

Strong export and domestic demand flowed through into solid production in the retail, manufacturing, transport, and forestry industries.

Dairy export volumes were up 19 percent in the June 2017 quarter, as dairy inventories were run down. Meat export growth contributed to the strength in food manufacturing. A rise in the volume of forestry products exported flowed into an 8.1 percent rise in forestry and logging.

The retail trade and accommodation industry benefitted from increased domestic household expenditure and strong growth in tourism in the latest quarter.

• Maintains 10-year jgb yield target around zero pct

• Leaves unchanged pledge to buy jgbs more or less at current pace so its holdings increase at annual pace of around 80 trln yen

• CPI moving around 0.5 pct

• Decision on yield curve control made by 8-1 vote

• Japan's economy expanding moderately, keeps assessment unchanged

• In third quarter economic growth to be pulled down by hurricanes

• Storm effects are unlikely to alter course of national economy beyond next two quarters

• Says Fed expects the economy to expand at a moderate pace over the next few years

• Says Fed's understanding of forces driving inflation are not perfect

• Believes this year's shortfall in inflation reflects developments unrelated to broader conditions

• Says federal fund rate will not have to rise much further to get to neutral stance

• Inflation running below 2 percent for long time is a concern

• Says apart from hurricane effect, inflation to remain somewhat below 2 pct in near term, to stabilize around 2 pct goal over medium term

• Inflation to rise temporarily in aftermath of hurricanes

• Recent storms will affect near-term economic activity but unlikely to alter course over medium term

• Says to start shrinking balance sheet in october following schedule it laid out in july

• Job gains have remained solid, household spending expanding at moderate rate

• Repeats near-term risks to the economy appear "roughly balanced," fed monitoring inflation closely

U.K. stocks closed slightly lower Wednesday as a brief surge in the pound yanked the benchmark FTSE 100 to session lows, but retail shares added to gains after monthly British retail sales leapt past expectations. All the moves were made before Wednesday's marquee event for global markets took place: the U.S. Federal Reserve's September policy decision.

U.S. stock benchmarks ended a volatile session mostly in the green, with the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 carving out fresh all-time highs, as the Federal Reserve announced that, for the first time in nine years, it would start reducing the size of its $4.5 trillion asset portfolio commencing in October.

Asian stocks were split early on whether to rise or fall in the wake of the Federal Reserve's overnight statements on policy and economic projections. Japan was again a standout, with equities building on this week's two-year highs as the yen continued to retreat. Meanwhile, Australia underperformed as metal prices fell and utilities stocks slid.