CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 25-09-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +101.13 20397.58 +0.50%

TOPIX +8.21 1672.82 +0.49%

Hang Seng -380.19 27500.34 -1.36%

CSI 300 -19.94 3817.79 -0.52%

Euro Stoxx 50 -3.61 3537.81 -0.10%

FTSE 100 -9.35 7301.29 -0.13%

DAX +2.46 12594.81 +0.02%

CAC 40 -14.16 5267.13 -0.27%

DJIA -53.50 22296.09 -0.24%

S&P 500 -5.56 2496.66 -0.22%

NASDAQ -56.33 6370.59 -0.88%

S&P/TSX +62.00 15516.23 +0.40%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1844 -0,86%

GBP/USD $1,3465 -0,21%

USD/CHF Chf0,9665 -0,26%

USD/JPY Y111,71 -0,24%

EUR/JPY Y132,33 -1,10%

GBP/JPY Y150,421 -0,45%

AUD/USD $0,7931 -0,37%

NZD/USD $0,7248 -1,19%

USD/CAD C$1,23697 +0,29%

00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence September 18.3

08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals August 41.58 41.7

12:00 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y July 5.7% 5.8%

14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index September 14

14:00 U.S. New Home Sales August 571 585

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence September 122.9 120.0

14:30 U.S. FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

16:45 U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks

Major US stock indexes finished trading in negative territory, with Nasdaq falling most of all against the backdrop of Facebook and Apple losses, which fell sharply.

A slight influence on the dynamics of trading was provided by economic data for the US and comments by a number of representatives of the Federal Reserve System.

Under the impact of the decline in production-related indicators, the index of economic activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (CFNAI) fell to -0.31 in August from +0.03 in July. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index have declined since July, and two of the four categories made a negative contribution to the index in August. The three-month moving average of the CFNAI-MA3 index fell to -0.04 in August from neutral reading in July.

In the meantime, FRB President Chicago Evans said that the Fed needs to see "clear signs of rising inflationary pressures and upward pressure on wages" before raising rates again. This is due to the fact that inflation does not reach the target level, and inflation expectations remain low.

Meanwhile, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Dudley, said that the Fed will continue to increase as the economy recovers. "I expect growth and stabilization of inflation near the target level in the medium term," Dudley said. "In response, the Fed will probably continue to turn off monetary stimulus."

Oil prices rose significantly on Monday after major producers said the world market was on the road to rebalancing, while Turkey threatened to cut oil flows from the Iraqi region of Kurdistan to its ports. As a result, the price of Brent crude oil has reached its maximum value since mid-July 2015, while the quotes of WTI crude are close to the highs observed in mid-April 2017.

Components of the DOW index finished trading mixed (15 in positive territory, 15 in negative territory). Outsider were shares of Visa Inc. (V, -2.43%). Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM, + 1.32%) was the leader of growth.

Most sectors of the S & P index recorded a decline. The largest decline was registered in the technological sector (-1.4%). The base resources sector grew most (+ 0.7%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.24% 22.295.96 -53.63

Nasdaq -0.88% 6,370.59 -56.33

S & P -0.22% 2,496.67 -5.55

EURUSD: 1.1800 (EUR 1.1bln) 1.1900 (310m) 1.2050 (765m)

USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 1.08bln)

AUDUSD: 0.8100 (AUD 835m)

U.S. stock-index futures fell slightly on Monday, as investors remained cautious, awaiting a slew of speeches by the Fed officials in the coming days, including its chief Janet Yellen (due on Tuesday).

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Global Stocks:

Nikkei 20,397.58 +101.13 +0.50%

Hang Seng 27,500.34 -380.19 -1.36%

Shanghai 3,340.81 -11.72 -0.35%

S&P/ASX 5,683.73 +1.59 +0.03%

FTSE 7,292.56 -18.08 -0.25%

CAC 5,266.51 -14.78 -0.28%

DAX 12,616.46 +24.11 +0.19%

Crude $50.66 (0.00%)

Gold $1,294.80 (-0.21%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

General Motors (GM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank

• Economic fundamentals 'generally quite favorable'

• Hurricane effects to disrupt commerce, obscure broader economic data points

• Hurricane effects likely short-lived, tend to boost growth over time

• Expects slightly better than average economic growth, wage gains

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; target $140

• Can be argued that temporary collateral framework should not become part of the regular framework

• We can already start thinking about a financial risk management framework for a central bank that has returned to more conventional policy

• Increased risk reflects deteriorating loan quality, tougher stress test including 4 pct BOE bank rate

• Average loss rate of 20 pct for UK consumer lending in 2017 compares with 13 pct in 2016

• Banks should factor these expected loss rates into future capital plans

• Still expect to raise counter-cyclical capital buffer to 1 pct from 0.5 pct at nov meeting, with effect from nov 2018

• New ifrs9 accounting rule will not lead to increased capital requirements for banks

The ifo Business Climate Index fell in September from 115.9 points to 115.2 points, but still remains way above its long-term average of 102.1 points (as of 1991). Companies were less satisfied with both their current business situation and their short-term outlook than in August. Germany's economy nevertheless goes into the new legislative period with a strong tailwind.

In manufacturing the index declined markedly. Manufacturers were clearly less satisfied with their current business situation, which nevertheless remains favourable. Their business expectations were also scaled back slightly. Similar developments were seen in several key segments of manufacturing. Production plans, however, remain geared towards growth.

Mrs Merkel's CDU/CSU alliance took 33% of the vote, well ahead of the second placed Social Democratic Party with 20.5% which would be its worst result since World War Two.

But in a major shock, the AfD took 12.6% support in Sunday's vote making it the country's third biggest political force says Sky News.

Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has today downgraded the United Kingdom's long-term issuer rating to Aa2 from Aa1 and changed the outlook to stable from negative. The UK's senior unsecured bond rating was also downgraded to Aa2 from Aa1.The key drivers for the decision to downgrade the UK's ratings to Aa2 are as follows:

1. The outlook for the UK's public finances has weakened significantly since the negative outlook on the Aa1 rating was assigned, with the government's fiscal consolidation plans increasingly in question and the debt burden expected to continue to rise;

2. Fiscal pressures will be exacerbated by the erosion of the UK's medium-term economic strength that is likely to result from the manner of its departure from the European Union (EU), and by the increasingly apparent challenges to policy-making given the complexity of Brexit negotiations and associated domestic political dynamics.

Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI rises to fourmonth high of 52.6 in September (52.2 in August). Flash Manufacturing Output Index at 53.5 (52.5 in August).

Strongest growth for four months. Export sales expand at faster pace, but rate of job creation softens to ten-month low

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Annabel Fiddes, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: "Latest data signalled a further improvement in growth momentum across Japan's manufacturing sector with the PMI rising to a four-month high in September. "Firms signalled stronger expansions in both output and new orders amid reports of firmer demand both at home and abroad. The strong end to Q3 bodes well for production in the coming months, with business confidence also perking up slightly since August."

New Zealand National Party, which has governed the country since 2008, received 46 percent of the votes, well ahead of rivals, however, its traditional partners in the minority government failed to gather the support required.

The National Party won 58 seats in 120 members' strong parliament, down 2 seats from the last election. The main opposition Labour Party had an excellent showing under the new leadership of Jacinda Arden won 35.8 percent of the votes or 45 seats, up 13 seats from the last election.

Global Stocks

European stocks edged mostly higher Friday, with upbeat economic data helping the market to move past weakness stemming from the latest round of tensions between North Korea and the U.S. The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, +0.09% closed up by a slight 0.1% at 383.22, keeping intact a 0.7% weekly advance. The pan-European index on Thursday ended higher, boosted by bank stocks after hints from the U.S. Federal Reserve that more rate hikes are coming this year and next.

U.S. stocks bounced late in the session, paring early losses and ending little changed on Friday as investors shook off the latest bellicosities between North Korean and U.S. leaders. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.06% closed 1.62 points higher at 2,502.22, posting a weekly gain of less than 0.1%. Of the 11 main sectors, six finished in positive territory. Health-care shares rebounded to erase earlier declines and finish slightly higher after Republican Sen. John McCain announced he wouldn't sign the latest health-care bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Telecoms shares were the best performers, gaining 1.4%.

Asia-Pacific markets shrugged off weekend election results in Germany and New Zealand, as stocks in Australia and Japan rose on local drivers. In Germany, incumbent Chancellor Angela Merkel's party lost more seats than expected, including some to the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, which became the first far-right party to enter the Bundestag since World War II. But Merkel will continue to lead the government.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2053 (1381)

$1.2035 (3175)

$1.2007 (1565)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1934

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1894 (3298)

$1.1862 (4235)

$1.1825 (2825)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 6 is 97373 contracts (according to data from September, 22) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1800 (4838);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3648 (1152)

$1.3594 (1525)

$1.3567 (2201)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3535

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3437 (413)

$1.3375 (303)

$1.3328 (395)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 6 is 31788 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3300 (2510);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 35345 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2950 (2503);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.11 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 22

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.