CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 28-09-2017

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 51.59 +0.06%

Gold 1,289.90 +0.09%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +96.06 20363.11 +0.47%

TOPIX +11.74 1676.17 +0.71%

Hang Seng -220.83 27421.60 -0.80%

CSI 300 +1.34 3822.54 +0.04%

Euro Stoxx 50 +8.47 3563.64 +0.24%

FTSE 100 +9.31 7322.82 +0.13%

DAX +47.24 12704.65 +0.37%

CAC 40 +11.81 5293.77 +0.22%

DJIA +40.49 22381.20 +0.18%

S&P 500 +3.02 2510.06 +0.12%

NASDAQ +0.19 6453.45 +0.00%

S&P/TSX +8.59 15618.25 +0.06%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1782 +0,33%

GBP/USD $1,3438 +0,34%

USD/CHF Chf0,96975 -0,21%

USD/JPY Y112,30 -0,44%

EUR/JPY Y132,32 -0,11%

GBP/JPY Y150,919 -0,11%

AUD/USD $0,7852 +0,03%

NZD/USD $0,7230 +0,40%

00:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m August 1.7% Revised From -0.7% 10.2%

02:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence September -10 -11

02:30 Japan Unemployment Rate August 2.8% 2.8%

02:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y September 0.5% 0.6%

02:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y September 0.4% 0.5%

02:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y August -0.2% 1%

02:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y August 0.5% 0.7%

02:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y August 0.4% 0.7%

02:50 Japan Retail sales, y/y August 1.8% 2.6%

02:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) August -0.8% 1.9%

02:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) August 4.7%

04:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m August 0.5% 0.5%

04:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y August 5.3%

08:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y August -2.3% 0.9%

08:00 Japan Construction Orders, y/y August 14.9%

09:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y September 2.1% 2%

09:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index September -0.1% 0.3%

09:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y August 2.7% 3.2%

09:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted August -1.2% 0.5%

09:45 France CPI, m/m (Preliminary) September 0.5% 0.2%

09:45 France CPI, y/y (Preliminary) September 0.9%

10:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator September 104.1 105.5

10:55 Germany Unemployment Change September -5 -5

10:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. September 5.7% 5.7%

11:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals August 68.69 68

11:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln August 4.8 5.0

11:30 United Kingdom Consumer credit, mln August 1179 1350

11:30 United Kingdom Current account, bln Quarter II -16.9 -16

11:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, q/q (Finally) Quarter II 0.6% 0%

11:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, y/y (Finally) Quarter II 0.7% 0%

11:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter II 0.2% 0.3%

11:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Finally) Quarter II 2% 1.7%

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y (Preliminary) September 1.2%

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) September 1.5% 1.6%

15:30 United Kingdom MPC Member Dr Ben Broadbent Speaks

15:30 Canada Industrial Product Price Index, y/y August 1.3%

15:30 Canada Industrial Product Price Index, m/m August -1.5% 0.5%

15:30 Canada GDP (m/m) July 0.3% 0.1%

15:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y August 1.4% 1.4%

15:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m August 0.1% 0.2%

15:30 U.S. Personal spending August 0.3% 0.1%

15:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m August 0.2% 0.2%

16:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index September 58.9 58.5

17:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Finally) September 96.8 95.3

17:45 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

18:00 U.S. FOMC Member Harker Speaks

20:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count September 744

The main US stock indices rose on Thursday, but only slightly, due to the cooling of enthusiasm caused by the tax plan of President Donald Trump.

Some support for the market was provided by data on the United States. As it became known, real GDP increased by 3.1% year-on-year in the second quarter, according to the "third" estimate published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased by 1.2%. Today's GDP estimate is based on more complete initial data than was available for the "second" estimate released last month. In the second estimate, real GDP growth was 3.0%.

In addition, the number of Americans applying for new unemployment benefits rose last week, at least in part reflecting the loss of work due to hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Initial applications for unemployment benefits, which reflect national layoffs, increased by 12,000 to 272,000, seasonally adjusted for the week ending September 23, the Ministry of Labor said on Thursday. Economists were expecting 270,000 new applications.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in positive territory (19 out of 30). The leader of growth was the shares of McDonald's Corporation (MCD, + 2.39%). Outsider were shares United Technologies Corporation (UTX, -1.32%).

Most sectors of the S & P index recorded an increase. The utilities sector grew most (+ 0.3%). The largest decrease was observed in the services sector (-0.2%).

At closing:

DJIA + 0.18% 22,381.20 +40.49

Nasdaq + 0.00% 6,453.45 +0.19

S & P + 0.12% 2.510.06 +3.02

EURUSD: 1.1600 (EUR 760 млн) 1.1725 (960 млн) 1.1750-55 (1.05 млрд) 1.1785 (390 млн) 1.1800 (720 млн) 1.1825 (430 млн) 1.1900 (515 млн) 1.1950 (410 млн) 1.2000 (3.34 млрд)

USDJPY: 111.20 (USD 400 млн) 111.50 (930 млн) 112.00 (2.1 млрд)

AUDUSD: 0.7870 (AUSD 310 млн) 0.8000 (450 млн)

Before the bell: S&P futures -0.16%, NASDAQ futures -0.30%

U.S. stock-index futures fell slightly on Thursday, as investors continued to digest the President Donald Trump's tax-reform plan, which pushed the stock market modestly higher on Wednesday. The focus also is on a batch of economic data, including the final estimate of second quarter GDP and weekly initial jobless claims count.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 20,363.11 +96.06 +0.47%

Hang Seng 27,421.60 -220.83 -0.80%

Shanghai 3,340.12 -5.16 -0.15%

S&P/ASX 5,670.39 +6.10 +0.11%

FTSE 7,295.49 -18.02 -0.25%

CAC 5,283.60 +1.64 +0.03%

DAX 12,689.74 +32.33 +0.26%

Crude $52.43 (+0.56%)

Gold $1,288.60 (+0.06%)

In the week ending September 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 272,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 259,000 to 260,000. The 4-week moving average was 277,750, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 268,750. This is the highest level for this average since February 6, 2016 when it was 277,750. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma impacted this week's claims.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the second quarter of 2017, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2 percent.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent in the first. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 3.0 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the first quarter.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, federal government spending, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Facebook (FB) target raised by $5 to $220 at Deutsche Bank

McDonald's (MCD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow

The inflation rate in Germany as measured by the consumer price index is expected to be 1.8% in September 2017. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.1% on August 2017.

In September 2017, the harmonised index of consumer prices for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, is expected to increase by 1.8% year on year and to remain unchanged on August 2017.

• There are also corrections needed to state pension system due to Germany's rapidly ageing population

• Next german government should focus on income tax reform, there is also room to reduce social welfare contributions

• German gdp growth of 2.0 pct (calendar-adjusted 2.1 pct) in 2018, 1.8 pct in 2019

• German consumer price inflation of 1.7 pct in 2017, 1.7 pct in 2018 and 1.8 pct in 2019

• Conditions for german exporters could deteriorate depending on the outcome of Brexit negotiations

• Monetary policy can influence how hit to incomes is distributed between job losses and inflation

EURUSD: 1.1600 (EUR 760m) 1.1725 (960m) 1.1750-55 (1.05bln) 1.1785 (390m) 1.1800 (720m) 1.1825 (430m) 1.1900 (515m) 1.1950 (410m) 1.2000 (3.34bln)

USDJPY: 111.20 (USD 400m) 111.50 (930m) 112.00 (2.1bln)

AUDUSD: 0.7870 (AUSD 310m) 0.8000 (450m)

Spain's inflation accelerated for the second straight month in September, data from the statistical office INE showed, cited by rttnews.

Inflation rose to 1.8 percent in September from 1.6 percent in August. This was the highest rate in four months.

Month-on-month, consumer prices gained 0.2 percent in September. During the same period of last year, prices had remained flat.

Meanwhile, inflation based on the harmonized index of consumer prices, slowed slightly to 1.9 percent from 2 percent a month ago. On a monthly basis, the HICP climbed 0.6 percent.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1890 (1236)

$1.1843 (1610)

$1.1811 (620)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1742

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1682 (3419)

$1.1641 (3474)

$1.1595 (3215)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 6 is 100376 contracts (according to data from September, 27) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1800 (5371);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3579 (1200)

$1.3544 (966)

$1.3490 (1668)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3385

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3277 (976)

$1.3236 (719)

$1.3192 (1462)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 6 is 35166 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3700 (3022);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 37584 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2950 (2513);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.07 versus 1.02 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 27

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Q2 gdp grew in-line with expectations

• There remains a risk of resurgence in house prices

• House price growth has moderated further, this moderation is expected to continue

• Growth to maintain current pace going forward

• Domestic growth is projected to maintain its current pace going forward

• Expects future headline inflation to reach the midpoint of the target band over medium term

Excellent consumer sentiment will not continue unabated in September. Both income expectations and propensity to buy decreased. On the other hand, economic expectations increased slightly. GfK forecasts a decrease in consumer climate for October of 0.1 points in comparison to the previous month to 10.8 points.

However, consumers believe that the German economy's solid growth trend is set to continue in fall. Therefore, economic expectations will also increase after losses from the preceding month. In contrast, the previous five-month upswing in income expectations ceased in September. Propensity to buy also suffered due to the downturn. However, both measures remain at their current high levels so that a slight trend reversal downwards can be viewed more as a stabilization process.

• Likely that inflation will remain well anchored

• Low inflation gives Fed flexibility to raise rates more slowly

• Hurricane effects to 'significantly cloud' U.S. economic data in coming months

• Expects inflation to rise through end-2018, unemployment to fall below 'full employment' level

"Global economic growth has continued to improve in recent quarters. However, inflation and wage outcomes remain subdued across the advanced economies and challenges remain with on-going surplus capacity. Bond yields are low, credit spreads have narrowed and equity prices are near record levels. Monetary policy is expected to remain stimulatory in the advanced economies, but less so going forward.

The trade-weighted exchange rate has eased slightly since the August Statement. A lower New Zealand dollar would help to increase tradables inflation and deliver more balanced growth.

GDP in the June quarter grew in line with expectations, following relative weakness in the previous two quarters. While exports recovered, construction was weaker than expected. Growth is projected to maintain its current pace going forward, supported by accommodative monetary policy, population growth, elevated terms of trade, and fiscal stimulus.

House price inflation continues to moderate due to loan-to-value ratio restrictions, affordability constraints, and a tightening in credit conditions. This moderation is expected to continue, although there remains a risk of resurgence in prices given population growth and resource constraints in the construction sector.

Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly".

U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, with the Dow industrials ending a four-day losing streak and the small-cap Russell 2000 notching a record close as President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans touted a sweeping tax overhaul. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.25% rose 56.39 points, or 0.3%, to end at 22,340.71, erasing an earlier loss. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.41% rose 10.2 points, or 0.4%, to close at 2,507.04, less than 0.1% from a record close set last week.

European stocks advanced for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, with banks rising on expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and Alstom shares rallying after its rail merger with Siemens. The Stoxx Europe Index SXXP, +0.41% added 0.4% to end at 385.62, marking its highest close since July 17, according to FactSet data.

Asian equities lacked direction early Thursday, with rising bond yields boosting finance stocks in Japan and Australia, though Chinese markets experienced selling pressure ahead of a week-long holiday. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average NIK, +0.50% pared early gains and was last up 0.3%, recovering from Wednesday's declines when companies paid dividends. The gains also come as the yen continued to pull back, with the U.S. dollar marking a 2½-month high in late New York trade.