CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 26-09-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -67.39 20330.19 -0.33%

TOPIX -0.08 1672.74 +0.00%

Hang Seng +12.67 27513.01 +0.05%

CSI 300 +2.99 3820.78 +0.08%

Euro Stoxx 50 -1.43 3536.38 -0.04%

FTSE 100 -15.55 7285.74 -0.21%

DAX +10.39 12605.20 +0.08%

CAC 40 +1.63 5268.76 +0.03%

DJIA -11.77 22284.32 -0.05%

S&P 500 +0.18 2496.84 +0.01%

NASDAQ +9.57 6380.16 +0.15%

S&P/TSX -42.11 15474.12 -0.27%

(pare/closed(GMT +3)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1790 -0,45%

GBP/USD $1,3458 -0,05%

USD/CHF Chf0,9686 +0,22%

USD/JPY Y112,22 +0,46%

EUR/JPY Y132,33 +0,00%

GBP/JPY Y151,041 +0,41%

AUD/USD $0,7886 -0,57%

NZD/USD $0,7209 -0,54%

USD/CAD C$1,23426 -0,22%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y September 2.1% 2%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index September -0.1% 0.3%

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator August 1.38

06:45 France Consumer confidence September 103 103

08:00 Eurozone Private Loans, Y/Y August 2.6% 2.7%

08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y August 4.5% 4.6%

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance September -10 -10

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense August -7.8%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders August -6.8% 1%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation August 0.5% 0.2%

13:15 U.S. FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

14:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) August -0.8% -0.3%

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories September 4.591 2.296

16:00 Canada BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks

17:30 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks

20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.75%

20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement

21:30 U.S. FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

The main US stock indices almost did not change on Tuesday amid tense relations between the United States and North Korea. In addition, the focus of investors' attention was the statements of the Fed Chairman Janet Jellen regarding the prospects for the Central Bank's policy.

According to Yonhap news agency from South Korea, it appears that North Korea has strengthened its defense in the east after the Foreign Minister of North Korea said that US President Trump had declared war on Pyongyang, which gives him the right to retaliate, among which the right to shoot US bombers, even if they are not in the airspace of the DPRK.

Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Yellen noted that a gradual approach to policy change is particularly important given the restrained inflation and low neutral rate. "If you do not continue the gradual increase in rates in the future, you can face the risk of overheating the labor market," Yellen said, adding that it would be wrong to keep monetary policy unchanged until inflation returns to 2% . "The long-term inflation expectations may not correspond to the target level of 2%, but the FOMC still expects inflation to stabilize around 2% in the next few years," said the Fed chief. "The general conditions on the labor market are likely to again become the same , as they were before the crisis, FOMC will carefully study the incoming data and may change its opinion on the basis of them. "

A certain influence on the course of trading also provided data on the United States. As it became known, the growth of house prices in July accelerated, led by some long-term hot spots and one unexpected newcomer. The housing price index from S & P / Case-Shiller for 20 megacities rose by 5.8% per annum, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations over the three-month period ending in July, and was higher than the June increase of 5.6%. Over the month, the index rose 5.9% after an increase of 5.8% in June.

Sales of new buildings fell in August, despite the fact that the housing market still needs supplies. Sales of new buildings reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000 units, the Ministry of Commerce reported. This is 3.4% lower than a month ago, and 1.2% lower than in August 2016. Economists predicted sales at 588,000 units.

In addition, in September the index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board slightly decreased - to 119.8 (1985 = 100), compared with 120.4 in August. The index of the current situation decreased from 148.4 to 146.1, and the index of expectations slightly increased from 101.7 last month to 102.2.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in the red (17 of 30). The leader of growth was the shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL, + 1.83%). Outsider were shares of McDonald's Corporation (MCD, -1.75%).

Most sectors of the S & P index showed an increase. The conglomerate sector grew most (+ 0.6%). The greatest decrease was shown only by the healthcare sector (-0.4%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.04% 22.286.32 -9.77

Nasdaq + 0.15% 6,380.16 +9.57

S & P + 0.01% 2,496.97 +0.31

Reports on Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in September, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

The composite manufacturing index rose from 14 to 19, supported by a sizable increase in the index for shipments - which, at a reading of 22, is the highest it has been since December 2010 - and a smaller rise in the index for new orders. The third component of the composite index, the employment index, fell slightly. Although the wages index also declined very slightly, there was a notable increase in the average workweek indicator.

Manufacturing expectations were stable across most measures this month, and continued to indicate overall optimism. The only notable changes in expectations were in the index for expected average workweek, which rose from 16 to 25, and the index for expected capital expenditures, which fell from 30 to 18.

Sales of new single-family houses in August 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.4 percent below the revised July rate of 580,000 and is 1.2 percent below the August 2016 estimate of 567,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2017 was $300,200. The average sales price was $368,100.

EUR/USD: 1.1800(373 млн), 1.1825(979 млн), 1.2000(410 млн)

USD/JPY: 110.15-20(1.15 млрд), 112.00(661 млн), 112.40(403 млн), 113.00(520 млн)

AUD/USD: 0.7950(445 млн), 0.8100(262 млн)

USD/CAD: 1.2100(910 млн), 1.2300-05(1.95 млрд), 1.2630(480 млн)

U.S. stock-index futures rose slightly on Tuesday, as investors remained cautious, awaiting comments by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who is scheduled to give a speech titled "Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy" at an annual meeting of National Association for Business Economics in Cleveland today at 16:45 GMT.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 20,330.19 -67.39 -0.33%

Hang Seng 27,513.01 +12.67 +0.05%

Shanghai 3,343.83 +2.28 +0.07%

S&P/ASX 5,670.98 -12.75 -0.22%

FTSE 7,303.39 +2.10 +0.03%

CAC 5,265.97 -1.16 -0.02%

DAX 12,611.11 +16.30 +0.13%

Crude $51.86 (-0.69%)

Gold $1,304.60 (-0.53%)

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.9% annual gain in July, up from 5.8% the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.2%, up from 4.9% the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.8% year-over-year gain, up from 5.6% the previous month. Seattle, Portland, and Las Vegas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In July, Seattle led the way with a 13.5% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland with a 7.6% increase, and Las Vegas with a 7.4% increase. Twelve cities reported greater price increases in the year ending July 2017 versus the year ending June 2017.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

DowDuPont (DWDP) initiated with a Hold at HSBC Securities; target $66

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank

Altria (MO) upgraded to Outperform at Cowen

• Says war on the korean peninsula will have no winner

• Being bent on assertiveness will only increase the risk of conflict

• China strictly implements U.N. security council resolutions

• Says way of sanctions against North Korea is almost exhausted

• Working behind the scenes on finding political solution to situation around North Korea

• Military conflict on korean peninsula will lead to catastrophic consequences

EUR/USD: 1.1800(373 m), 1.1825(979 m), 1.2000(410 m)

USD/JPY: 110.15-20(1.15 b), 112.00(661 m), 112.40(403 m), 113.00(520 m)

AUD/USD: 0.7950(445 m), 0.8100(262 m)

USD/CAD: 1.2100(910 m), 1.2300-05($1.95 d), 1.2630(480 m)

UK Finance estimates that overall gross mortgage lending in August was £24.2 billion, of which £15.1 billion was lent by High Street Banks. Accounting for seasonal factors, this figure is in the same ball park as monthly lending over the course of 2017.

House purchase approvals by the High Street banks reached 41,807 in August, stronger than the monthly average of 41,133 over the last six months and 11% higher than the same time last year when the market was subdued following the referendum result.

UK Finance data shows that consumer borrowing from High Street banks slowed to 1.5% in August, down from 1.9% in July.

Non-financial companies' deposits are growing annually by 8.7% as businesses hold cashflow, the data reveals.

• Many members said measures of inflation expectations had stopped declining

• Many members said companies likely to gradually shift toward raising wages and prices

• Some members said 2 pct inflation target is global standard, contributes to fx stability

• A few members said jobless rate and output gap need to improve further to reach 2 pct inflation

• One member said ETF purchases are excessive, will have adverse impact on pricing of stocks

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2002 (1456)

$1.1951 (1101)

$1.1921 (1593)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1852

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1799 (2836)

$1.1767 (5215)

$1.1729 (2849)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 6 is 98254 contracts (according to data from September, 25) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1800 (5215);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3647 (1502)

$1.3615 (1153)

$1.3565 (1138)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3489

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3417 (455)

$1.3358 (670)

$1.3281 (1036)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 6 is 34724 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3700 (3032);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 8 is 35721 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2950 (2503);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.11 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 25

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Goods exports rose $306 million (9.0 percent) to $3.7 billion.

Fruit had the largest rise of any export commodity group in August 2017, up $70 million (29 percent) to $311 million.

Kiwifruit led the rise in fruit, up $73 million (37 percent) to $268 million.

Gold kiwifruit rose $45 million (55 percent) in value, and 26 percent in quantity.

Green kiwifruit rose $28 million (25 percent) in value, and 17 percent in quantity.

Milk powder, butter, and cheese exports fell $12 million (2.6 percent) in value, and 25 percent in quantity. August months are generally lower-value and lower-quantity months for dairy commodity exports.

The monthly trade balance was a deficit of $1.2 billion (33 percent of exports).

The average monthly deficit in August over the last five years was $968 million (28 percent of exports).

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices increased by 2.1% in August 2017 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In July 2017 and in June 2017 the annual rates of change were +1.9% and +2.5%, respectively. From July 2017 to August 2017 the index did not change.

The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, increased by 1.7% compared with the level of a year earlier.

The index of export prices increased by 1.5% in August 2017 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In July 2017 and in June 2017 the annual rates of change were +1.5% and +1.8%, respectively. From July 2017 to August 2017 the export price index fell by 0.1%.

European stocks ticked slightly higher Monday as investors digested the outcome of Germany's general election, which delivered a win for Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative alliance but signaled potential turbulence ahead. The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, +0.18% added 0.2% to close at 383.90. On Friday, the index ended up by 0.1% and marked a weekly advance of 0.7%.

U.S. stock-market indexes ended lower on Monday on the back of a fresh flare up in tensions between the U.S. and North Korea and a sharp decline in technology shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.24% slipped 53.50 points, or 0.2%, to 22,296.09, with Visa Inc. V, -2.41% and Microsoft Corp. MSFT, -1.55% leading losses, both down more than 1.7%.

Equity markets in Asia were lower on Tuesday, hurt by fresh threats from North Korea and weakness among key technology stocks. North Korea's foreign minister warned overnight that his country would shoot down U.S. warplanes even if they were outside the nation's airspace.