CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 24-07-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -124.08 19975.67 -0.62%

TOPIX -8.42 1621.57 -0.52%

Hang Seng +140.74 26846.83 +0.53%

CSI 300 +14.87 3743.47 +0.40%

Euro Stoxx 50 +1.46 3453.17 +0.04%

FTSE 100 -75.18 7377.73 -1.01%

DAX -31.11 12208.95 -0.25%

CAC 40 +10.04 5127.70 +0.20%

DJIA -66.90 21513.17 -0.31%

S&P 500 -2.63 2469.91 -0.11%

NASDAQ +23.06 6410.81 +0.36%

S&P/TSX -54.44 15128.69 -0.36%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1636 -0,22%

GBP/USD $1,3024 +0,24%

USD/CHF Chf0,94693 +0,13%

USD/JPY Y111,16 +0,05%

EUR/JPY Y129,35 -0,18%

GBP/JPY Y144,78 +0,28%

AUD/USD $0,7922 +0,12%

NZD/USD $0,7432 -0,26%

USD/CAD C$1,25077 -0,23%

04:00 Eurozone ECB's Yves Mersch Speaks

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate July 115.1 114.9

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment July 124.1 123.8

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations July 106.8 106.5

10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance July 16

13:00 Belgium Business Climate July -2 -1.9

13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m May 0.7%

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y May 5.7% 5.9%

14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index July 7

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence July 118.9 116

17:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Andy Haldane Speaks

22:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln June 103

Major US stock indexes ended the session in different directions, which was due to corporate news and expectations of the outcome of the Fed meeting.

The S & P 500 and Dow fell against the backdrop of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock losses, and Nasdaq hit a record high before the publication of the Alphabet Inc earnings report.

In addition, data from IHS Markit indicated that in July there was further acceleration of business activity growth in the private sector of the United States. Taking into account the seasonal fluctuations, the preliminary composite PMI index rose to 54.2 in July, compared to 53.9 in June, and signaled the strongest expansion rate since January.

However, in June, home sales in the secondary market in the US fell more than expected, as the shortage of homes raised house prices to a record high. The National Association of Realtors said that home sales in the secondary market fell 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.52 million units last month.

Oil rose more than 1% after Saudi Arabia, the leading OPEC producer, pledged to reduce its exports to accelerate the rebalancing of global demand and supply. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said his country would limit crude oil exports at 6.6 million barrels per day in August, which is almost 1 million barrels per day lower than a year ago.

Most components of the DOW index recorded a decline (19 out of 30). Outsider were shares of General Electric Company (GE, -1.87%). Caterpillar Inc. was the growth leader. (CAT, + 1.46%).

Most sectors of the S & P index finished trading in the red. The utilities sector showed the greatest decrease (-0.7%). The financial sector grew most (+ 0.4%).

At closing:

DJIA -0.22% 21.532.01 -48.06

Nasdaq + 0.36% 6,410.81 +23.06

S & P -0.10% 2,470.09 -2.45

Existing-home sales slipped in June as low supply kept homes selling at a near record pace but ultimately ended up muting overall activity, according to the National Association of Realtors. Only the Midwest saw an increase in sales last month.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.52 million in June from 5.62 million in May. Despite last month's decline, June's sales pace is 0.7 percent above a year ago, but is the second lowest of 2017 (February, 5.47 million).

At 54.2, up from 53.9 in June, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index signalled the strongest rate of expansion since January.

The pickup in business activity growth was driven by a steeper increase in manufacturing production in July ('flash' output index at 54.3, up from 52.6 in June). Meanwhile, service providers indicated that activity growth was unchanged from June's five-month peak ('flash' business activity index at 54.2 in July). Higher levels of business activity were supported by a robust and accelerated upturn in new work during July. Measured overall, the latest increase in new orders received by private sector companies was the strongest for six months.

EURUSD: 1.1310 (EUR 300m) 1.1400 (460m) 1.1450 (480m) 1.1500 (2.65bln) 1.1550-55 (730m) 1.1700 (800m)

USDJPY: 111.00 (USD 340m) 111.20-25 (670m) 114.00 (840m)

GBPUSD:1.3000 (GBP 540m)

AUDUSD: 0.7540-45 (AUD 1.7bln) 0.7775 (430Am)

USDSGD: 1.3700 (USD 340m)

USDCNY: 6.8000 (USD 1.45bln)

U.S. stock-index futures were flat, as investors were caution on the first day of the week packed with earnings results and a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision in the U.S. Nearly 200 companies on the S&P 500 are expected to report this week, including Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), McDonald's Corp.(MCD), AT&T Inc. (T), Facebook Inc.(FB), Coca-Cola Co.(KO), Amazon.com Inc.(AMZN), Intel Corp. (INTC), Procter & Gamble Co.(PG), Exxon Mobil Corp.(XOM) , Chevron Corp.(CVX), Merck & Co.(MRK), etc.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 19,975.67 -124.08 -0.62%

Hang Seng 26,846.83 +140.74 +0.53%

Shanghai 3,250.49 +12.51 +0.39%

S&P/ASX 5,688.07 -34.77 -0.61%

FTSE 7,386.82 -66.09 -0.89%

CAC 5,128.50 +10.84 +0.21%

DAX 12,190.20 -49.86 -0.41%

Crude $46.16 (+0.85%)

Gold $1,258.00 (+0.25%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Honeywell (HON) target raised to $148 from $145 at RBC Capital Mkts

McDonald's (MCD) target raised to $170 from $165 at Telsey Advisory Group

Goldman Sachs (GS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS

Caterpillar (CAT) upgraded to Outperform at BMO Capital Markets

Arconic (ARNC) reported Q2 FY 2017 earnings of $0.32 per share, beating analysts' consensus estimate of $0.26.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $3.261 bln (+0.8% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $3.184 bln.

ARNCrose to $26.50 (+5.12%) in pre-market trading.

Sales were up in six of the seven subsectors, representing 80% of total wholesale sales. The miscellaneous subsector and the motor vehicle and parts subsector contributed the most to the advance.

In volume terms, wholesale sales increased 0.8% from April to May.

The miscellaneous subsector reported the largest gain in dollar terms, up 2.6% to $8.0 billion in May following a 2.2% decline in April. Sales were up in four of the five industries, led by the agricultural supplies industry (+7.5%) following a 1.2% decline in April. The chemical (except agricultural) and allied product industry increased for the sixth time in seven months, up 8.4% in May.

Sales in the motor vehicle and parts subsector rose 1.4% to $11.6 billion following three consecutive monthly declines. The motor vehicle industry posted the lone increase (+1.9%) among the three industries.

July 24

Before the Open:

Arconic (ARNC). Consensus EPS $0.26, Consensus Revenues $3183.65 mln.

After the Close:

Alphabet (GOOG). Consensus EPS $8.28, Consensus Revenues $25639.88 mln.

July 25

Before the Open:

3M (MMM). Consensus EPS $2.59, Consensus Revenues $7857.54 mln.

Caterpillar (CAT). Consensus EPS $1.26, Consensus Revenues $10961.44 mln.

DuPont (DD). Consensus EPS $1.28, Consensus Revenues $7276.73 mln.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). Consensus EPS $0.20, Consensus Revenues $3664.69 mln.

General Motors (GM). Consensus EPS $1.72, Consensus Revenues $37673.18 mln.

McDonald's (MCD). Consensus EPS $1.62, Consensus Revenues $5964.81 mln.

United Tech (UTX). Consensus EPS $1.77, Consensus Revenues $15241.32 mln.

After the Close:

AT&T (T). Consensus EPS $0.74, Consensus Revenues $39905.09 mln.

July 26

Before the Open:

Boeing (BA). Consensus EPS $2.32, Consensus Revenues $23018.33 mln.

Coca-Cola (KO). Consensus EPS $0.57, Consensus Revenues $9623.31 mln.

Ford Motor (F). Consensus EPS $0.43, Consensus Revenues $37201.07 mln.

After the Close:

Barrick Gold (ABX). Consensus EPS $0.17, Consensus Revenues $2040.12 mln.

Facebook (FB). Consensus EPS $1.11, Consensus Revenues $9193.93 mln.

July 27

Before the Open:

Altria (MO). Consensus EPS $0.86, Consensus Revenues $5021.08 mln.

Intl Paper (IP). Consensus EPS $0.65, Consensus Revenues $5719.91 mln.

MasterCard (MA). Consensus EPS $1.04, Consensus Revenues $2975.49 mln.

Procter & Gamble (PG). Consensus EPS $0.78, Consensus Revenues $15994.03 mln.

Twitter (TWTR). Consensus EPS $0.05, Consensus Revenues $536.55 mln.

Verizon (VZ). Consensus EPS $0.96, Consensus Revenues $29824.90 mln.

After the Close:

Amazon (AMZN). Consensus EPS $1.39, Consensus Revenues $37178.88 mln.

Intel (INTC). Consensus EPS $0.68, Consensus Revenues $14392.81 mln.

Starbucks (SBUX). Consensus EPS $0.55, Consensus Revenues $5755.85 mln.

July 28

Before the Open:

Chevron (CVX). Consensus EPS $0.88, Consensus Revenues $32455.01 mln.

Exxon Mobil (XOM). Consensus EPS $0.86, Consensus Revenues $63158.05 mln.

Merck (MRK). Consensus EPS $0.87, Consensus Revenues $9741.88 mln.

Yandex N.V. (YNDX). Consensus EPS RUB 12.50, Consensus Revenues RUB 22231.33 mln.

• Says further measures vis-a-vis Turkey still being examined

EURUSD: 1.1310 (EUR 300m) 1.1400 (460m) 1.1450 (480m) 1.1500 (2.65bln) 1.1550-55 (730m) 1.1700 (800m)

USDJPY: 111.00 (USD 340m) 111.20-25 (670m) 114.00 (840m)

GBPUSD:1.3000 (GBP 540m)

AUDUSD: 0.7540-45 (AUD 1.7bln) 0.7775 (430Am)

USDSGD: 1.3700 (USD 340m)

USDCNY: 6.8000 (USD 1.45bln)

The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data, though the rate of growth remained slightly below the recent highs in both manufacturing and services and inflationary pressures cooled further.

The headline IHS Markit Eurozone PMI fell for a second successive month in July, down from 56.3 in June to a six-month low of 55.8, according to the preliminary 'flash' estimate (based on approximately 85% of final replies). Despite coming off recent highs, the index remained at an elevated level by historical standards and signalled one of the strongest expansions seen over the past six years.

German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July but remained strong overall, according to flash PMI survey data from IHS Markit. The overall rate of expansion was the weakest since January, a trend reflected in both manufacturing output and services business activity. Similarly, new business inflows increased at the softest rate since the start of 2017. That said, job creation quickened during the month and outstanding business continued to grow solidly, reflecting manufacturing backlogs. Moreover, firms remained as optimistic regarding output expectations in July as they had been in June.

The IHS Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index registered 55.1 in July, down from 56.4 in June and indicating the slowest rate of expansion since January. That said, growth remained strong overall and above the long-run series average. Output has risen continuously since May 2013, the second-longest sequence of growth since the series started in January 1998.

The rate of expansion remained sharp overall with the IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index, which is based on around 85% of usual monthly survey replies, posting well above the neutral 50.0 level at 55.7.

However, this was down from 56.6 in June and marked a further fall from May's six-year peak. Notably, it was the lowest index reading seen since the start of the year. Softer increases in output were seen across both manufacturers and service providers in July. Service sector activity rose sharply overall despite the rate of increase slowing for the second month in a row. At the same time, the latest survey signalled a solid expansion in manufacturing production, albeit with the rate of growth weakening to a four-month low.

• Development of global value chains facilitated by technology could potentially change the influence of global inflation factors on domestic inflation

• Technological changes may lower NAIRU

Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI down to eight-month low of 52.2 in July (52.4 in June).

Flash Manufacturing Output Index at 51.4 (52.2 in June). Weakest growth for 10 months

Export orders stagnate.

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Paul Smith, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: "July's survey data indicated a further easing of growth in both orders and output from May's recent highs. The slowdown was driven by stagnation in export orders, amid reports of weaker demand from South East Asia markets. "Nonetheless, the sector continues to add jobs, with employment growth remaining amongst the best since the financial crisis, whilst optimism hit its highest level in five years of data collection."

European stocks suffered their worst daily fall in three weeks Friday, weighed by strength in the euro, as the flow of corporate quarterly results failed to provide a lift. The Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, -1.02% was slammed lower by 1% to 380.16. Industrial, tech and the oil-and-gas put in particularly weak performances, as crude-oil prices slumped and as the enthusiasm for technology shares cooled following a sharp, recent rebound for that sector.

U.S. stocks closed lower Friday, with the Dow industrials finishing lower for the week, as General Electric Co.'s GE, -2.92% outlook cast a cloud over earnings season, which is just getting started. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% fell 31.71 points, or 0.2%, to close at 21,580.07, with shares of GE falling 2.9% and shares of Chevron Corp. CVX, -1.32% and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS, -0.95% helping to lead blue chips lower.

Asian shares were mostly lower Monday, with stocks in Japan and Australia underperforming notably as further declines in the U.S. dollar continued to weigh on investor sentiment. A fresh pullback in commodity prices also hurt equities, despite the weaker dollar. Many assets in the sector are denominated in the dollar and often rise when the currency falls.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1769 (2050)

$1.1749 (1675)

$1.1720 (5086)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1669

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1614 (426)

$1.1578 (1303)

$1.1537 (856)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 4 is 72871 contracts (according to data from July, 21) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (5086);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3112 (2279)

$1.3071 (2158)

$1.3043 (1094)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3013

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2942 (638)

$1.2910 (1174)

$1.2873 (2617)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 4 is 27583 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (3047);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 4 is 26309 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (3055);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.95 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 21

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.