CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 25-09-2018

Major US stock indexes finished trading mostly in the red, suffered from a fall in shares of Facebook (FB) and chip makers.

In addition, investors assessed the US data. As it became known, the price index for housing from S & P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of housing prices in the US, for July 2018 showed that house prices continued to grow across the country in the last 12 months.

At the same time, the Conference Board consumer confidence index rose in September. The index is now 138.4 (1985 = 100), compared with 134.7 in August. The current situation index slightly increased from 172.8 to 173.1, and the index of expectations rose from 109.3 last month to 115.3 this month.

Crude oil prices jumped to a 4-year high due to the inevitable US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports and the apparent reluctance of OPEC and Russia to increase production to compensate for the potential impact on the global supply.

Most of the components of DOW finished trading in the red (19 of 30). Outsider were shares of Intel Corporation (INTC, -2.21%). The leader of growth were shares of McDonald's Corporation (MCD, + 1.90%).

Most S & P sectors recorded a decline. The utilities sector showed the greatest decrease (-1.0%). The conglomerate sector grew most (+ 0.9%),

At closing:

Dow 26,492.21 -69.84 -0.26%

S & P 500 2,915.56 -3.81 -0.13%

Nasdaq 100 8,007.47 +14.22 +0.18%

U.S. stock-index futures were mixed on Tuesday, as energy and bank stocks gained, while tech names were under pressure.

Global Stocks:

U.S. house prices rose in July, up 0.2 percent from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.2 percent increase in June was revised upward to 0.3 percent.

The FHFA monthly HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. From July 2017 to July 2018, house prices were up 6.4 percent.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from June 2018 to July 2018 ranged from -0.5 percent in the East South Central division to +1.1 percent in the South Atlantic division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +4.7 percent in the New England division to +8.7 percent in the Mountain division.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Intel (INTC) initiated with a Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts

Verizon (VZ) target raised to $59 from $55 at UBS

Amazon (AMZN) target raised to $2350 from $2185 at Jefferies

Intel (INTC) downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James

Barrick Gold (ABX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup

• BMW Now Sees 2018 Automotive EBIT Margin At Least 7%

• Previously Saw 2018 Automotive EBIT Margin Between 8% and 10%

• 2018 Pretax Profit Expected to Decrease Moderately

• Previously Saw 2018 Pretax Profit On Par With 2017

• Effects of Adding, Withdrawing QE Not Symmetrical

• Unwinding of QE Unlikely to Affect Yield Curve

• It is desirable that the exchange rates move steadily. It is also desirable that it reflects the economic basis

• Do not set a time frame for how long to maintain monetary policy

• It is very important to keep interest rates low for a very long period

• I want to clarify that the situation in Japan is different from the situation in the US and Europe

• However, the promise to maintain low rates does not mean that the Bank of Japan will do this on an ongoing basis

• When developing guidance, it is necessary to ensure the effectiveness of commitments

• It is also necessary to take into account the flexibility of future political behavior

• I hope that the new leadership provides a clear position

• Stock and exchange rates have been stable since the July meeting of the Bank of Japan

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1865 (2988)

$1.1847 (1740)

$1.1837 (427)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1761

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1721 (2065)

$1.1682 (1794)

$1.1639 (3976)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 15 is 88593 contracts (according to data from September, 24) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1900 (5274);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3280 (2904)

$1.3235 (2453)

$1.3207 (1710)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3115

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3087 (1164)

$1.3062 (416)

$1.3032 (951)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 15 is 29582 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3335 (2969);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 15 is 33476 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2508);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.13 versus 1.14 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 24.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the selling prices in wholesale trade increased by 3.8% in August 2018 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. In July 2018 and in June 2018 the annual rates of change were +3.6% and +3.4%, respectively.

From July 2018 to August 2018 the index rose by 0.3%.

At the meeting on July 30-31, the Bank of Japan took steps to make its political structure more stable, for example, to allow bond yields to be more flexible around the target with zero percent.

• Several board members said that the Bank of Japan would take further instructions to strengthen its desire to achieve the target level of inflation

• Some members said that more flexible control over long-term profitability would help maintain and improve the functioning of the market

• One member said that allowing a certain increase in yield would increase the sustainability of current policies

• One member said that it is important to keep in mind that the yield may increase or decrease by half compared to the range of levels observed since the adoption of the YCC control,

• One member stated that a description of the fact that long-term profitability may change to some extent is ambiguous and may lead to an increase in yield more than necessary

• Labour's Starmer To Say Labour Will Oppose A 'Blind Brexit' That Provides No Detail On Terms Of Future Relationship