CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 26-03-2021

On Monday, at 08:30 GMT, Britain will announce changes in the volume of the M4 money supply aggregate, the number of approved mortgage applications and the volume of net loans to individuals for February. At 21:45 GMT, New Zealand will report a change in the volume of construction permits for February. At 23:30 GMT, Japan will announce the change in the unemployment rate for February, and at 23:50 GMT - the change in retail trade for February.

On Tuesday, at 07:00 GMT, Switzerland will release the KOF leading economic indicators for March. At 09:00 GMT, the euro zone will report changes in the M3 aggregate of money supply and private sector lending for March. At 12:00 GMT, Germany will present the consumer price index for March. At 13:00 GMT, the US will publish the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for January, and at 14:00 GMT - the consumer confidence indicator for March. At 23:50 GMT, Japan will announce a change in industrial production for February.

On Wednesday, at 00:00 GMT, New Zealand will release the ANZ Business Confidence indicator for March. At 00:30 GMT, Australia will report changes in the volume of construction permits and the private sector credit for February. At 01:00 GMT, China will present the PMI index for the manufacturing sector and the index of activity in the non-manufacturing sector for March. At 05:00 GMT, Japan will announce a change in the volume of housing starts for February. At 06:00 GMT, the UK will report changes in GDP, balance of payments and commercial investment for the 4th quarter. At 06:45 GMT, France will announce the change in consumer spending for February and release the consumer price index for March. At 07:55 GMT, Germany will announce the change in the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed for March. At 08:00 GMT, Switzerland will present the index of expectations of Swiss investors, according to data from ZEW and Credit Suisse for March. At 09:00 GMT, the euro zone will release the consumer price index for March. At 12:15 GMT, the US will report a change in the number of employees from ADP for March. At 12:30 GMT, Canada will announce the change in GDP for January and will present the producer price index for February. At 13:00 GMT in Switzerland, the quarterly inflation report from the SNB will be released. At 13:45 GMT, the US will publish the Chicago purchasing managers ' index for March, and at 14:00 GMT will report a change in the volume of pending home sales for February. At 14: 30 GMT, the US Department of Energy will release a report on changes in oil reserves. At 21:30 GMT, Australia will present the AiG manufacturing activity index for March. At 23:50 GMT, Japan will publish the Tankan Large Producer Activity Index and the Tankan non-manufacturing activity index for the 1st quarter.

On Thursday, at 00:30 GMT, Australia will report changes in retail trade and the foreign trade balance for February. At 01:45 GMT, China will release the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for March. At 06:00 GMT, Germany will announce a change in retail sales for February. At 06:30 GMT, Switzerland will present the consumer price index for March and announce the change in retail sales for February. Then, the focus will be on the indices of business activity in the manufacturing sector for March: at 07:30 GMT, Switzerland will report, at 07:50 GMT - France, at 07: 55 GMT - Germany, at 08:00 GMT - the eurozone, and at 08:30 GMT - Britain. Also on Thursday, a OPEC-JMMC Meetings will be held. At 12:30 GMT, Canada will report on the change in the volume of construction permits for February. Also at 12: 30 GMT, the US will announce a change in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. At 14:00 GMT, the US will present the ISM manufacturing index for March and announce the change in spending in the construction sector for February.

On Friday, at 06:45 GMT, France will announce a change in the balance of the state budget for February. At 12:30 GMT, the US will report changes in the unemployment rate and the nonfarm payrolls for March. At 17:00 GMT, in the US, the Baker Hughes report on the number of active oil drilling rigs will be released.

GBP: Caution is warranted even if risk sentiment improves near-term - Credit Agricole

eFXdata reports that Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses GBP and maintains a cautious bias in the near-term.

"Given that the GBP’s recent rally relied heavily on the success of the UK vaccine rollout so far this year, any evidence that the rollout will be slowing could fuel concerns about delays of the government’s plans to reopen the economy and thus continue to hurt the currency."

"We, therefore, believe that a more cautious stance on the GBP is warranted, even if risk sentiment starts to improve in the coming weeks." 

According to ActionForex, analysts at RBC Financial Group expect next week’s Canadian GDP report is to confirm the economy continued to grow in January, despite virus-containment measures that put a lid on retail sales and kept the hospitality sector sharply depressed. 

"We see little reason to deviate from Statistics Canada’s preliminary call for a 0.5% monthly gain. Manufacturing and wholesale sales both rose solidly in January and hours worked were up 0.9% despite a plunge in (mostly part-time) employment. We look for another increase in output in February of 0.3% with retail sales having risen by 4% as shopping restrictions were relaxed."

"Make no mistake, businesses in high-contact service sectors are still suffering. Restaurants, hotels, recreation and other services made up 80% of the shortfall in total hours worked (versus pre-shock levels) across private-sector industries in February. Outside these industries, manufacturing sales softened, falling 1% in February according to Statistics Canada’s flash estimate, as production disruptions triggered by a global chip shortage continue to dampen transportation-sector supply. Still, a solid manufacturing PMI print for the same month hints at robust demand and production trends outside the auto sector, and we expect the March report next week will tell a similar story. CFIB’s monthly business barometer sentiment indicator hit its highest level in almost a decade in March."

According to ActionForex, analysts at TD Bank Financial Group note that U.S. personal income declined by 7.1% month-on-month in February, a tick deeper than the 7.0% decrease expected by the consensus, while spending was down by 1.0% month-on-month, disappointing market expectations by two-tenths of a percentage point. 

"After falling retail sales reported earlier in the month, the downswing in spending was more or less priced into the consensus estimate. The weakness is a reflection of unusually severe weather rather than stringent lockdowns or consumer caution. Indeed, according to high frequency data, the number of visitors to places of retail and recreation pulled back in February even as restrictions eased and the number of new virus cases dropped."

"February’s slide in personal income comes following the $160 billion hump in government income support in January, making the month-on-month comparison somewhat of a red herring. Relative to last year, personal income is still up by 4.3%. Moreover, American households’ financial resilience, as measured by the $1 trillion in excess savings, remains solid and is getting reinforced by additional $400 billion in relief payments and $200 billion in unemployment provisions of the American Rescue Plan."

"Consumers fundamentals are fertile ground for a spending bloom provided that the economy continues to open up. Google mobility trends already point to an accelerating rebound, strengthening to levels above those observed in the summer of 2020. Meanwhile, president Biden’s more ambitious vaccination plan of 200 million of doses, should lead to at least 40% of the population having been partially inoculated by the end of April, which may pull forward the timing of broad reopening. In line with that, we expect real spending growth to accelerate from 4.7% (annualized) in the first quarter to 6.6%(annualized) in the second quarter of 2021."

• Over the coming month, EU countries need to increase fiscal spending
• Risk is countries do too little, rather than too much on fiscal front
• Stimulus effort will gradually be targeted at investments, job creation
• EU is a long way from achieving a unanimity consensus on requirement for EU bond

FXStreet reports that strategists at Capital Economics now expect that the U.S. dollar will strengthen somewhat over the next couple of years as the U.S. economy outperforms and its policy mix diverges from that in most other major economies. 

“We now expect that this rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield has further to run and that it will continue to outpace the rises of equivalent yields in other developed markets. The upshot is that we think that the US dollar’s appreciation will also continue.”

“We now expect USD to make further gains against most currencies, and especially those of economies where both short- and long-end interest rates are set to remain low, such as the euro and the yen.” 

“We think the US dollar will appreciate against the renminbi and other Asian currencies that generally track it. In addition, we expect most other emerging market currencies will struggle in an environment of rising US yields, weak domestic growth, and faltering commodity prices (with the exception of oil, the price of which we expect to rise this year). 

“The currencies which we expect to fare best are those of economies whose recoveries are strongest and central banks are most willing to raise interest rates. These include the NZ dollar and Norwegian krone, as well as the Czech koruna and Chilean peso.”

U.S. consumer sentiment slightly better than initially estimated in March

The final reading for the March Reuters/Michigan index of consumer sentiment came in at 84.9 compared to a preliminary reading of 83.6 and the February final reading of 76.8. This was the highest reading since March 2020.

Economists had forecast the index to be unrevised at 83.6.

According to the report, the index of consumer expectations surged 12.7 percent m-o-m to 79.7 from February’s final reading of 70.7, while the index of the current economic conditions jumped 7.9 percent m-o-m to 93.0 from February’s final reading of 86.2.

“Consumer sentiment continued to rise in late March, reaching its highest level in a year due to the third disbursement of relief checks and better than anticipated vaccination progress,” noted Richard Curtin, the Surveys of Consumers chief economist. 

• There are wage pressures in certain sectors but not across the board
• I'm not seeing signs of a wage price spiral
• There are some risks to keeping rates too low for too long
• I want to hold steady until we get through this
• Committed to letting inflation rise above 2% for some time

Before the bell: S&P futures +0.27%, NASDAQ futures -0.17%

U.S. stock-index futures traded mixed on Friday, as investors bought stocks that stand to benefit from the reopening of the economy, while selling technology shares.

Global Stocks:

FXStreet notes that S&P 500 setback has been held by support as expected from the rising 63-day average, now at 3846, and analysts at Credit Suisse continue to look for this to remain a floor and for the risk to turn higher again in the broader range. 

“The S&P 500 sell-off has stabilized at the 50% retracement of the March rally and gap support at 3854/52, with the key rising 63-day average now just below here at 3846. We continue to look for this to remain a better floor and look for the risk to try and turn back higher from here.” 

“Resistance moves to the short-term downtrend at 3920/25 initially, above which should add weight to this view for a move back to 3955.” 

“Support is seen at 3901 initially, 3881, below which can see a retest of 3854/46. With a fresh floor expected here.”

• We have various options in our tool kit to support the economy if additional easing is required 
• A jobless rate of well above 5% would almost certainly indicate that we are some way from closing the output gap sustainably
• Shortfall in activity vs likely post-pandemic path for potential output once temporary effects fade is large now; unlikely to close in next few quarters
• As long as this shortfall persists, it would be hard to argue that output gap has closed sustainably

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Altria (MO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; target raised to $58

NIKE (NKE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird; target $150

The Commerce Department reported on Friday that consumer spending in the U.S. fell 1.0 percent m-o-m in February after a revised 3.4 percent m-o-m advance in January (originally a 2.4 percent m-o-m gain). Economists had forecast the reading to show a 0.7 percent m-o-m decrease.

Meanwhile, consumer income plunged 7.1 percent m-o-m in February, following a revised 10.1 percent m-o-m surged in the previous month (originally a 10.0 percent m-o-m jump). This was the largest monthly drop in consumer income on record. Economists had forecast a 7.3 percent m-o-m tumble.

The February decline in personal income was more than accounted for by a decrease in government social benefits to persons.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, increased 0.1 percent m-o-m in February, following a revised 0.2 percent m-o-m advance in January (originally a 0.3 percent m-o-m gain). Economists had projected the index would edge up 0.1 percent m-o-m.

In the 12 months through February, the core PCE increased 1.4 percent, decelerating from an unrevised 1.5 percent in the 12 months through January. Economists had forecast an advance of 1.5 percent y-o-y. 

USD fell against most of its major counterparts in the European session on Friday as investor risk sentiment improved on hopes for strong economic recovery and fast rollout of the U.S. vaccine programme. 

The other two traditional safe havens - the yen and the Swiss franc - also came under pressure. At the moment, the U.S. dollar is trading higher against JPY and CHF.

Official data showed on Thursday that claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. dropped to a one-year low last week, indicating that the country's economy is on the verge of stronger recovery as the public health situation improves.

The latest data from CDC shows that 26.3% of the U.S. population has received one dose of a multi dose vaccine and 14.3% has been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus. The U.S. President Joe Biden stated on Thursday that he will double his vaccination plan by the middle of May after reaching his previous goal of 100 million shots 42 days ahead of schedule.

It should be noted, however, that the U.S. currency's depreciation is coming in parallel with a jump in the U.S. Treasury bond yields, with benchmark 10-year notes rising five basis points to 1.674%, following yesterday's disappointing auction of $62 billion in 7-year notes.

FXStreet notes that the renminbi has gained 9% against the US dollar since last May but the factors that underpinned this appreciation have faded. With US yields moving in the dollar’s favour and China’s economic outperformance set to diminish, analysts at Capital Economics now expect the renminbi to soften a bit over the coming quarters.

“In normal times, an upswing in global growth would be good for Chinese exports and, all else equal, the renminbi. But much of the recent strength in Chinese exports reflects surging demand from households in lockdown that will stall or reverse as vaccines allow a return towards normality.”

“Even after the recent jump in US yields, the spread still points to modest renminbi gains. But that will change if US yields continue to rise, as we now expect. We also think that, if anything, long-run yields in China will decline over the coming year or two, as the bond market starts to price in weaker growth and the likelihood of future monetary policy easing. By the end of 2022, we think the China yield premium could hit a decade low.”

“We now expect the renminbi to weaken from 6.54/$ currently to 6.70 by year-end and 6.90 by end-2022 (our previous forecast was 6.20 for both years). This leaves us more bearish than most analysts, at least over a two-year horizon.”

FXStreet reports that economists at Nordea argue that rates are still too low relative to the economic outlook, in particular in USD, but the European Central Bank clearly disagrees. Regarding the EUR/USD pair, a move to the 1.15-1.17 range is likely.

“USD interest rates will increase more (2% 10yr bond yield target for this summer), the ECB will face an uphill battle in terms of containing the spill-over to EUR rates, but will try their best, while EUR/USD is a clear sell-on-rallies towards levels around 1.15-1.17.”

“Should the Fed allow USD reflation to run even hotter, the USD is a buy. Should the Fed cause a tantrum, the USD is a buy and should risk assets drop due to higher real rates, the USD is a buy.”

• Says he does not think that Suez Canal disruption will impact Japanese oil supply, for now

FXStreet reports that the GBP/USD pair maintains a top below a cluster of supports seen centered on 1.3779, including its medium-term uptrend, and analysts at Credit Suisse look for further corrective weakness.

“GBPUSD is seeing a near-term bounce but with a top seen in place beneath the lower end of the March range, 55-day average and medium-term uptrend centered on 1.3779/82 this is seen as temporary and we continue to look for a more significant turn lower.”

“Near-term support is seen at 1.3733, with a move below 1.3693 needed to clear the way for a fall back to 1.3670/63 and then the 38.2% retracement of the September/February rally at 1.3641. Whilst we would look for an initial rebound from here, we look for a break in due course with support seen next at 1.3567, ahead of 1.3530/20 and then the 50% retracement and the YTD low at 1.3456/52. Whilst we look for this to hold at first, a break in due course can see the ‘measured top objective’ at 1.3322.”

FXStreet reports that economists at MUFG Bank expect the EUR/CHF pair to move higher based on the global reflation assumption.

“There is hardly any reason for any considerable shift in policy stance and the only notable change was the SNB committed to intervening to limit CHF strength “as necessary’ in contrast to the commitment last year post-COVID to intervene ‘more strongly’ in order to achieve its price stability goal. 

“External factors will continue to dictate CHF movement and direction and we maintain that and based on our global reflation assumption, we continue to see scope for EUR/CHF moving further higher this year.”

“USD/CHF is currently higher than we expected given EUR/USD is far lower. Assuming EUR/USD corrects higher again later this year, then EUR/CHF will be the avenue of CHF depreciation not USD/CHF.” 

CNBC reports that a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic has heaped more political problems onto Chancellor Angela Merkel and her ruling CDU party as the country edges closer to federal elections later this year.

Germany was initially widely praised for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic. A year on, and the situation is very different, with Europe’s biggest economy confronting a third wave of infections, a rising death toll and accusations of health crisis mismanagement aimed at the government.

On Wednesday, Merkel made waves by reversing a plan to lockdown the country over the Easter break saying she had made a “mistake.” This came after criticism from health experts and business leaders, who said the proposal could cause more harm than good.

Merkel’s CDU party has already fared poorly in recent state elections, signaling that it could be punished again later in the year by voters erring toward the center-left Social Democrats and particularly, the environmentalist Greens, whose support has risen markedly.

“Confusing policy shifts and slow vaccination progress have now undermined public confidence in the ability of the CDU/CSU, which has led the government for most of post-war history including the past 15 years, to steer Germany through the crisis,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, commented in a note

Schmieding noted that a kickback scandal involving CDU-CSU members of Parliament had resonated with the public, with polls showing a fall in support for the CDU-CSU back to pre-pandemic levels.

FXStreet reports that economists at Capital Economics think that the outlook for the coronavirus, the economy and policy in the US points to a continuation of the rotation currently underway in its stock market.

“We forecast that US economic growth will be exceptionally strong. We are projecting the strongest annual GDP growth since at least the early 1980s, and think that consensus forecasts are still too low. Stronger-than-expected cyclical growth would probably boost the earnings of industries that struggled in the anaemic economic growth and low inflation of the 2010s to a greater extent than those that did relatively well in that period – mostly tech firms whose earnings grew primarily because of structural shifts rather than the economic cycle.”

“We are anticipating further increases in long-term interest rates. We expect the yield to climb above 2% this year. Rising yields have at least coincided with some of the industries hit hardest early in the pandemic doing well recently. So, to the extent that changes in yields do matter, they might support the rotation.”

According to the report from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), UK car production fell -14.0% in February, with 105,008 units leaving factory gates. 17,163 fewer cars were made, representing an 18th consecutive month of decline and the weakest February performance in more than a decade as the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, in particular shuttered UK showrooms, new customs processes and global supply chain constraints continued to influence output

Production for the domestic market fell -34.9%, a loss of 9,480 units, compared with a less severe -8.1% fall in exports, down 7,683 units. Overseas orders still accounted for by far the majority (83.2%) of all cars made in the month, with most of these (53.9%) heading into the EU, demonstrating once again the importance of harmonious trading relationships with the sector’s largest and closest market. February shipments to the US and Asia combined amounted to 30.9% of all UK car exports.

The recent strong growth in UK output of battery electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and hybrid vehicles (HEV) continued in February, with total production of these vehicle surging 25.3% to 23,019 units.

According to the report from National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), in March 2021, the consumer confidence index decreased, passing from 101.4 to 100.9. Compared to the previous survey, all its components indicated a light variation. In particular, the personal climate slipped from 104.7 to 104.5, the economic one from 91.5 to 90.2, the future one from 107.5 to 107.1 and, finally, the current from 97.3 to 96.7.

As for the business confidence climate, the index (IESI, Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator) made progress from 93.3 to 93.9.

The confidence index in manufacturing continued to improve from 99.5 to 101.2. The firms were more optimistic about both the order book current trend and the future production developments.

The confidence index in construction ameliorated from 141.9 to 147.9. The positive development was due to the improvement in both its components.

The market services confidence index slipped from 85.7 to 85.3. The opinions of surveyed firms both on the order books and on the business trend further recovered.

The retail trade confidence index diminished passing from 93.7 to 90.9. Among the confidence-building variables, a marked decline showed the short-term expectations on the volume of future sales, while assessments on the current business trend weakened.

Reuters reports that a survey from Ifo institute showed that German business morale hit its highest level in almost two years in March as rising demand for manufactured goods kept factories in Europe's largest economy humming through rising coronavirus infections and lockdown restrictions.

Business climate index shot up to 96.6, the highest reading since June 2019, from an upwardly revised 92.7 in February. Economists had expected an increase to 93.1. Meanwhile, the Current Economic Assessment arrived at 93.0 points in the reported month as compared to last month's 90.6 and 91.3 anticipated. The Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months, climbed to 100.4 in March from the previous month’s 94.2 reading and better than the market expectations of 95.2.

"Despite rising infection numbers, the German economy started spring with confidence," Ifo President Clemens Fuest said in a statement.

Reuters reports that according to the report from National Statistics Institute (INE), Spain's economy did not grow in the fourth quarter as restrictions to curb a second wave of infection weighed on private consumption.

The data showed a 0% variation in output between the fourth quarter and the third, compared with a flash estimate for 0.4% growth and following a higher-than-expected 17.1% quarterly jump in the third quarter. Still, public spending supported the economy in last quarter and it did not enter negative territory. Investment also showed some resilience in the last three months of the year.

The statistics office revised Q3 GDP to 17.1% from a previous 16.4% reading.

On an annual basis, gross domestic product shrank by 10.8% in 2020, in a marginally less severe contraction than the previously reported 11% but still the worst annual decline on record.

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose against the yen, but declined against the euro. The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), rose by 0.23%.

Yesterday's US data remained in the focus of investors ' attention. The estimate of US GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2020 was improved to 4.3% from 4.1%, according to the final data of the US Department of Commerce. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States last week fell to the lowest for the year (684 thousand).

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, said that it is possible that the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates until 2024. However, he noted that the Fed may take action earlier in the event of a steady acceleration in inflation.

The pound, which rose strongly against the dollar earlier this year thanks to the conclusion of a new trade agreement between London and Brussels, as well as the successful vaccination against coronavirus in the UK, is near the level of early January.

"The pound has suffered due to disagreements between the UK and EU authorities over vaccines and these contradictions may delay the implementation of the plan to lift the quarantine in the UK.

The European Union this week tightened the export of COVID-19 vaccines produced in the bloc. As a result, the EU may restrict the supply of AstraZeneca vaccines produced at the company's plant in the Netherlands to the UK. On Monday, The Guardian noted that a complete ban on exports to the UK will lead to a delay in vaccination in the country for two months.

FXStreet reports that Natixis said that the appearance of excess supply of dollars held by the rest of the world will lead the dollar to depreciate.

“The strong expected growth in the US is visibly driving up US long-term interest rates. This has resulted in an increase in international demand for dollars, which has led to an appreciation of the dollar in the most recent period. Then, dollar long-term interest rates will stabilise, leading also to a stabilisation of international demand for dollars. Yet the sharp growth in US domestic demand will lead to a significant deterioration in US foreign trade.”

“As long as the dollar’s interest rate is rising, demand for dollars expressed in foreign currencies will rise at a constant exchange rate, balancing the increase in the supply of dollars.”

“Once the dollar’s interest rate has stabilised, the only way to increase non-resident demand for dollars expressed in dollars, when it is stable expressed in the rest of the world’s currencies, is a depreciation of the dollar.”

CNBC reports that Simon Baptist, global chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit said that the U.S. will remain wealthier than China for the next 50 years or more — long after the Asian economy is expected to overtake the U.S. to become the world’s largest.  

“I think it’s very unlikely that ... China will get to U.S. levels of GDP per capita — that’s our measure of wealth — for at least the next 50 years if ever,” Baptist told CNBC.

The latest International Monetary Fund data available showed China’s GDP per capita was forecast to be $10,582.10 in 2020 — roughly six times smaller than $63,051.40 in the U.S.

Baptist’s comments followed Joe Biden’s first official press conference since taking office, during which the U.S. president said he will not let China become “the leading country” globally.

Baptist said China will become “the other very large power” alongside the U.S. on the global stage. Which of the two is more powerful depends on where they wield that power, he added.

“I think in Asia, it probably will be very difficult for the U.S. to remain the most powerful country through the 2030s, but they’re going to remain evenly matched for quite a long time,” said Baptist.

According to the report from Office for National Statistics, retail sales volumes only partly recovered in February 2021 with an increase of 2.1% when compared with the 8.2% fall seen in the previous month, and sales were still down by 3.7% on a year earlier before the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Non-food stores provided the largest positive contribution to the monthly growth in February 2021 sales volumes, aided by strong increases of 16.2% and 16.1% in department stores and household goods stores respectively.

Clothing retailers reported the largest fall, of 50.4%, in sales volumes when compared with February 2020 before the coronavirus pandemic; automotive fuel stores also reported a large annual decline of 26.5% as travel restrictions continued to hit sales in that sector.

In the three months to February 2021, retail sales volume fell by 6.3% when compared with the previous three months, with strong declines in both clothing stores and other non-food stores.

The proportion spent online increased to 36.1% in February 2021, the highest on record; this compares with 35.2% in January 2021 and 20.0% reported in February 2020.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1884 (89)

$1.1856 (272)

$1.1835 (215)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1777

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1740 (4164)

$1.1711 (4851)

$1.1675 (2001)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date April, 9 is 66559 contracts (according to data from March, 25) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1900 (4991);

GBP/USD

$1.3889 (115)

$1.3837 (209)

$1.3807 (563)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3744

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3704 (857)

$1.3687 (463)

$1.3664 (1213)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 9 is 9559 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4100 (1178);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 9 is 15282 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3750 (1213);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.60 versus 1.71 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 25

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.