CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 26-05-2017

Consumer sentiment has continued to move along the high plateau established following Trump's election. The final May figure was virtually unchanged from either earlier in May or the April reading. Indeed, the May figure was nearly identical with the December to May average of 97.3. Moreover, the partisan divide between Democrats and Republicans has also remained largely unchanged, with the first expecting a recession and the other more robust economic growth.

How long will economic expectations be dominated by partisanship? Unlike differences in expectations across age, education, or income groups, which usually reflect actual differences in prospects for employment and income expectations, for example, partisanship is reflected by economic policy preferences. Since no major policies, such as healthcare, taxes, or infrastructure spending have yet been adopted, the partisan divide may reflect differences in policy preferences expressed as expected economic outcomes.

EURUSD:1.1000 (EUR 3.68bln) 1.1050-60 (1bln) 1.1075 (334m) 1.1100 (560m) 1.1130 (1.2bln) 1.1200 (2bln) 1.1250 (1.1bln) 1.1300 (328m)

USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 811m) 110.30-40 (691m) 110.50-60 (516m) 111.00 (1.45bln) 111.25-35 (1.7bln) 111.50 (545m) 111.70 (765m) 112.00 (897m) 112.50 (531m)

GBPUSD: 1.3000 (GBP 185m)

EURJPY: 124.00 (EUR 347m) 125.20 (208m)

AUDUSD: 0.7420-30 (AUD 460m) 0.7475 (250m) 0.7500 (252m) 0.7560 (296m)

USDCAD:1.3450 (USD 255m) 1.3570-80 (525m) 1.3600 (375m)

NZDUSD:0.6950-60 (NZD 627m) 0.7000 (350m) 0.7035 (410m)

U.S. stock-index futures were flat as investors assessed morning's batch of economic data and prepared for a prolonged weekend.

Stocks:

Nikkei 19,686.84 -126.29 -0.64%

Hang Seng 25,639.27 +8.49 +0.03%

Shanghai 3,110.16 +2.33 +0.08%

S&P/ASX 5,751.66 -37.96 -0.66%

FTSE 7,533.65 +15.94 +0.21%

CAC 5,311.74 -25.42 -0.48%

DAX 12,577.70 -44.02 -0.35%

Crude $48.60 (-0.61%)

Gold $1,266.00 (+0.76%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Chevron (CVX) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter. The PCE price index increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $1.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $231.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following four consecutive monthly increases, followed a 2.3 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.8 percent. Transportation equipment, down following two consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $1.0 billion or 1.2 percent to $78.5 billion.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $233.0 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent March decrease. Transportation equipment, down six of the last seven months, led the decrease, $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $77.2 billion.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the first quarter of 2017, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the"advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 0.7 percent. With this second estimate for the first quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; increases in nonresidential fixed investment and in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were larger and the decrease in state and local government spending was smaller than previously estimated. These revisions were partly offset by a larger decrease in private inventory investment.

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.1230 1.1250 1.1275-80 1.1300 1.1320 1.1350 1.1400

Bids: 1.1200 1.1180-85 1.1165 1.1140-50 1.1120 1.1100

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.2900 1.2930 1.2950 1.2985 1.3000 1.3020 1.3030 1.3050

Bids: 1.2850 1.2830 1.2800 1.2785 1.2750 1.2700

EUR/JPY

Offers: 125.00 125.30 125.50 125.80 126.00 126.50

Bids: 124.50 124.30 124.00 123.80 123.50 123.00

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8720 0.8735 0.8750 0.8780 0.8800

Bids: 0.8700 0.8680-85 0.8665 0.8650 0.8630 0.8600

USD/JPY

Offers: 111.50 111.85 112.00 112.30 112.50 112.80 113.00

Bids: 111.20 111.00 110.80-85 110.50 110.30 110.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7455-60 0.7480 0.7500 0.7530 0.7550

Bids: 0.7420 0.7400 0.7385 0.7350 0.7300

• Also made clear that Britain and EU member states should discuss future relationship with EU at same time as discussing withdrawal terms

• We believe Paris agreement should be implemented entirely, EU will push for this

• At G7 summit "we want to build bridges not walls"

• Positively surprised by Trump's comments on Brexit

• Trump agreed EU was more united after Brexit than before

• Believes can continue common policy with US on Russia, including on sanctions and Minsk accord

EURUSD:1.1000 (EUR 3.68bln) 1.1050-60 (1bln) 1.1075 (334m) 1.1100 (560m) 1.1130 (1.2bln) 1.1200 (2bln) 1.1250 (1.1bln) 1.1300 (328m)

USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 811m) 110.30-40 (691m) 110.50-60 (516m) 111.00 (1.45bln) 111.25-35 (1.7bln) 111.50 (545m) 111.70 (765m) 112.00 (897m) 112.50 (531m)

GBPUSD: 1.3000 (GBP 185m)

EURJPY: 124.00 (EUR 347m) 125.20 (208m)

AUDUSD: 0.7420-30 (AUD 460m) 0.7475 (250m) 0.7500 (252m) 0.7560 (296m)

USDCAD:1.3450 (USD 255m) 1.3570-80 (525m) 1.3600 (375m)

NZDUSD:0.6950-60 (NZD 627m) 0.7000 (350m) 0.7035 (410m)

Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade

• Change to yuan midpoint fixing method will help guide the forex market to focus more on macro fundamentals

• New midpoint fixing method will better reflect supply and demand in fx market and changes to currency basket

• Says held constructive discussions with the authorities on reforms

• Looking forward to starting Fed balance sheet reduction in second half of this year

• Prudent for BoJ to lay out an exit strategy

• Good to cap the amount of mortgage-backed securities allowed to run off balance sheet

• We are monitoring subprime auto and student loans but they are not near danger levels

• If the BoJ decides to taper JGB purchases, this has to be communicated carefully with markets, otherwise can cause global dislocation

Overall consumer prices in Japan were up 0.4 percent on year in April, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications cited by rttnews.

That was in line with expectations and up from 0.2 percent in March.

Core consumer prices were up 0.3 percent on year - shy of forecasts for 0.4 percent and up from 0.2 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, overall CPI was up 0.1 percent and core CPI was flat.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1280 (5623)

$1.1245 (5468)

$1.1228 (5966)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1194

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1136 (1463)

$1.1106 (1741)

$1.1071 (2145)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 81511 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (5966);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 101120 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (5492);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.24 versus 1.22 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 25

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3103 (2909)

$1.3006 (4135)

$1.2911 (2149)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2872

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2797 (2203)

$1.2698 (1727)

$1.2599 (1697)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 35035 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (4135);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 36283 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3061);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.04 versus 1.01 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 25

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

European stocks notched a slight loss Thursday, hampered by lower volume and a slide in oil prices following news the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will hold back from making deeper production cuts.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at fresh records on Thursday, as U.S. stocks advanced for a sixth straight session, thanks in part to big gains in shares of Best Buy after quarterly results.

Asian stocks dropped, turning away from Wall Street's strong performance overnight. Crude prices remained subdued early on Friday after an agreement by OPEC to extend existing supply curbs disappointed many who had hoped for larger cuts.