CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 23-05-2017

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 51.49 +0.04%

Gold 1,250.80 -0.37%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -65.00 19613.28 -0.33%

TOPIX -2.43 1565.22 -0.16%

Hang Seng +11.81 25403.15 +0.05%

CSI 300 +12.95 3424.19 +0.38%

Euro Stoxx 50 +18.50 3595.03 +0.52%

FTSE 100 -11.05 7485.29 -0.15%

DAX +39.69 12659.15 +0.31%

CAC 40 +25.28 5348.16 +0.47%

DJIA +43.08 20937.91 +0.21%

S&P 500 +4.40 2398.42 +0.18%

NASDAQ +5.09 6138.71 +0.08%

S&P/TSX +18.48 15476.94 +0.12%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1184 -0,46%

GBP/USD $1,2961 -0,29%

USD/CHF Chf0,9758 +0,28%

USD/JPY Y111,81 +0,47%

EUR/JPY Y125,04 0,00%

GBP/JPY Y144,9 +0,18%

AUD/USD $0,7476 +0,04%

NZD/USD $0,7011 +0,27%

USD/CAD C$1,3512 +0,10%

00:30 Australia Leading Index April 0.1%

01:30 Australia Construction Work Done Quarter I -0.2% -0.2%

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey June 10.2 10.2

07:15 Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) Quarter I -1.2%

08:30 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks

12:45 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

13:00 Belgium Business Climate May -0.8 -0.5

13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m March 0.8% 0.6%

14:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate 0.5% 0.5%

14:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement

14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales April 5.71 5.65

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories May -1.753

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

22:00 U.S. FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

The main US stock indexes finished trading near zero, weighed down by mixed economic data. Investors also expected more detailed information from the first full budget of President Donald Trump, aimed at reducing government spending.

In addition, the preliminary composite PMI index from IHS Markit in the US, seasonally adjusted, showed a modest growth in business activity in the private sector in May. The index rose to 53.9, compared with 53.2 in April, indicating the strongest rise in the private sector in the US since February. The faster growth in business activity was due to the services sector (preliminary index was 54.0 in May), which more than offset the weakest production growth since September 2016 (preliminary index was 53.3).

At the same time, it became known that sales of new buildings decreased in April, as builders slowed down after the March surge, which became the strongest in the last ten years. Sales of new homes amounted to 569 000 in view of seasonal fluctuations, the Ministry of Commerce said on Tuesday. This was well below the consensus forecast at an annual rate of 610,000, but was offset by a sharp revision of the data for the previous months.

Oil prices have risen moderately, as hopes for an extension of OPEC's agreement to reduce oil production offset the negative from the White House's offer to sell half of the country's strategic oil reserves. According to the information received, Trump's budget plan involves the gradual sale of half of the US strategic oil reserves, as well as the expansion of drilling in Alaska. However, this version of the budget plan has not yet been approved in Congress.

Most components of the DOW index in positive territory (19 out of 30). More shares fell The Home Depot, Inc. (HD, -0.66%). The leader of growth is the shares of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS, + 1.69%).

Most sectors of the S & P index in positive territory. The conglomerate sector fell most of all (-0.7%). The growth leader is the financial sector (+ 0.6%).

At closing:

DJIA + 0.21% 20,937.91 +43.08

Nasdaq + 0.08% 6,138.71 +5.09

S & P + 0.18% 2.398.42 +4.40

Sales of new single-family houses in April 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 569,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 11.4 percent (±10.5 percent) below the revised March rate of 642,000, but is 0.5 percent (±11.3 percent)* above the April 2016 estimate of 566,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2017 was $309,200. The average sales price was $368,300.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index revealed a modest rebound in private sector business activity growth in May.

At 53.9, up from 53.2 in April, the headline index pointed to the strongest upturn in U.S. private sector output since February. Faster business activity growth was driven by the service sector ('flash' index at 54.0 in May), which more than offset the weakest rise in manufacturing production since September 2016 ('flash' output index at 53.3).

EURUSD: 1.1100 (EUR 701m) 1.1125 (225m) 1.1150 (364m) 1.1175 (185m) 1.1250 (564m)

USDJPY: 109.50 (EUR 360m) 111.00-10 (505m) 112.00 (280m) 113.00 (320m)

GBPUSD: 1.3000 (175m)

AUDUSD: 0.7450 (AUD 260m)

USDCAD: 1.35750 (USD 422m) 1.3600 (425m)

EURJPY: 125.30 (EUR 200m)

• Says attack at Manchester arena was carried out with explosive device planted at concert

U.S. stock-index futures were rose slightly following the release of the White House's proposed budget.

Stocks:

Nikkei 19,613.28 -65.00 -0.33%

Hang Seng 25,403.15 +11.81 +0.05%

Shanghai 3,061.72 -13.95 -0.45%

S&P/ASX 5,760.19 -11.01 -0.19%

FTSE 7,511.80 +15.46 +0.21%

CAC 5,355.32 +32.44 +0.61%

DAX 12,662.86 +43.40 +0.34%

Crude $51.11 (-0.04%)

Gold $1,261.10 (-0.02%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Wholesale sales rose 0.9% in March and surpassed the $60 billion mark for the first time. Gains were recorded in four of seven subsectors, accounting for 60% of total wholesale sales, and were led by the building material and supplies subsector.

In the first quarter of 2017, wholesale sales were up 3.6% from the fourth quarter of 2016. This was the highest quarterly change since the second quarter of 2008.

In volume terms, wholesale sales increased 0.6% from February to March.

The building material and supplies subsector recorded the largest increase in dollar terms, as sales rose 3.9% to a record high $8.4 billion on the strength of higher sales in the lumber, millwork, hardware and other building supplies industry (+5.7%) and the metal service centres industry (+8.2%). Exports of lumber and other sawmill and millwork products rose 6.0% in March.

• German govt is not blocking anything on Greece, it is just sticking to the rules

• New french finance minister requested that we do not deal with financial transaction tax this time as he needs time to read in

• Schaeuble says we always have broad support in Eurogroup for german position

• Everything points to stronger growth in Greece this year

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.1275-80 1.1300 1.1320 1.1350 1.1380 1.1400

Bids: 1.1240 1.1220 1.1200 1.1180 1.1150 1.1130 1.1100

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.3000 1.3020 1.3050 1.3080 1.3100

Bids: 1.2970 1.2950 1.2935 1.2920 1.2900 1.2875-80 1.2850

EUR/JPY

Offers: 125.30 125.50 125.80 126.00

Bids: 124.50 124.30 124.00 123.80 123.50

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8680 0.8700 0.8735 0.8750

Bids: 0.8650 0.8630 0.8600 0.8585 0.8570 0.8550

USD/JPY

Offers: 111.50 111.80 112.00 112.30 112.50

Bids: 111.00 110.80-85 110.50 110.30 110.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7530 0.7550 0.7570 0.7600

Bids: 0.7480 0.7450 0.7430 0.7400

• Russia's longer-term growth prospects constrained by low productivity

• Sees crude oil price averaging $55/bbl in 2017, $60 in 2018, $61.5 in 2019

• Higher oil prices, oil output growth seen driving russian economic recovery

• Sees russian economy growing 1.3 pct in 2017, 1.4 pct in both 2018 and 2019

• Greece has done its part on reforms

• Lenders have a moral, political and legal duty to meet their obligations towards Greece

• Producers in agreement to do what is necessary to restore balance to oil market

• Says does not plan to cut output

Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £23.4 billion to £48.7 billion in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), compared with the financial year ending March 2016; this is the lowest net borrowing since the financial year ending March 2008.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast that public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) would be £51.7 billion during the financial year ending March 2017. During the financial year ending March 2018, OBR forecast public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) to be £58.3 billion.

Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) increased by £1.2 billion to £10.4 billion in April 2017, compared with April 2016; this is the highest April borrowing since 20

EURUSD: 1.1100 (EUR 701m) 1.1125 (225m) 1.1150 (364m) 1.1175 (185m) 1.1250 (564m)

USDJPY: 109.50 (EUR 360m) 111.00-10 (505m) 112.00 (280m) 113.00 (320m)

GBPUSD: 1.3000 (175m)

AUDUSD: 0.7450 (AUD 260m)

USDCAD: 1.35750 (USD 422m) 1.3600 (425m)

EURJPY: 125.30 (EUR 200m)

Eurozone economic growth continued to run at its fastest for six years in May, according to PMI survey data. Job creation also perked up to one of the strongest recorded over the past decade amid improved optimism about future prospects. Price pressures meanwhile remained elevated, albeit with some easing in input cost inflation.

The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI held steady at 56.8 in May, unchanged on April's six-year high, according to the preliminary 'flash' estimate (based on approximately 85% of final replies).

Private sector output in Germany expanded at the sharpest rate in over six years in May, according to flash PMI survey data from IHS Markit. The pace of expansion accelerated for the third time in four months to a 73-month record, reflecting the sharpest increase in manufacturing output since April 2011.

Meanwhile, growth of business activity in the service sector eased to a three-month low but remained stronger than the average registered for the first quarter of 2017. Cost pressures moderated but remained marked overall, driving one of the fastest increases in output prices in the past six years.

The IHS Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index registered 57.3 in May, up from April's 56.7 and signalling the fastest rate of expansion since April 2011. Output has risen continuously since May 2013, the second-longest sequence of growth since the series started in January 1998.

May's flash France PMI data pointed to an eleventh consecutive month of private sector growth in France. The IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index, based on around 85% of normal monthly survey replies, registered 57.6, compared to April's reading of 56.6.

The latest figure signalled the sharpest rate of growth in six years. The service sector saw activity increase for the eleventh time in as many months. Moreover, the rate of expansion accelerated to a six-year high and was sharp overall. Manufacturing output also continued to rise markedly, albeit to a fractionally weaker extent than in April.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1311 (6165)

$1.1279 (5468)

$1.1262 (6401)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1228

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1189 (897)

$1.1140 (699)

$1.1072 (1904)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 79332 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (6401);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 95201 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (5503);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.20 versus 1.20 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 22

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3203 (3471)

$1.3106 (3167)

$1.3010 (3913)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2972

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2895 (1458)

$1.2797 (2197)

$1.2698 (2031)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 35411 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3913);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 36820 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3061);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.04 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 22

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Says previous extension has helped balancing oil market & maintained average prices despite increase in shale oil production

• In event of consensus on extension of agreement, we emphasize our optimism about market recovery in h2

• Supports extension of agreement for another term and will support what helps market recovery at meeting

• Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI down to 6-month low of 52.0 in May (52.7 in April).

• Flash Manufacturing Output Index at 52.9 (53.4 in April). Slowest growth for six months.

• Job creation weakest since last November.

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Paul Smith, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: "May's PMI data signalled a broad-based slowdown in growth of the manufacturing sector, with output, new orders and employment all rising at their slowest rates since last November. "Although growth is being maintained at a decent clip, reports of "wait-and-see" attitudes amongst clients, excess warehouse inventories and recent sharp rises in raw material costs all served to undermine expansion during the month."

In April 2017, exports remained working at the previous year's level, while imports rose by 2.3%. The export development was associated with a weak monthly result of the chemical-pharmaceutical division. The foreign trade balance fell to the lowest level in the past two years. Exports remained at the level of April 2016 (real: -3.8%) on working-day terms. On a seasonal basis, they fell by 1.5% compared to the previous month. Since the beginning of the year is a Slightly downward trend. Imports, on the other hand, Previous year's working day adjusted by 2.3%.

The German economy continues to grow. In the first quarter of 2017, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.6% on the fourth quarter of 2016 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that, in the second half of the previous year, the GDP product grew a little more moderately (+0.2% in the third and +0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2016).

The quarter-on-quarter comparison (following price, seasonal and calendar adjustment) shows that positive contributions came from both domestic and foreign demand. Especially fixed capital formation increased markedly at the beginning of the year. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment rose 1.2% on the fourth quarter of 2016. Gross fixed capital formation in construction increased even 2.3%, one reason being the mild weather. Final consumption expenditure of households rose by 0.3% and government final consumption expenditure by 0.4% on the previous quarter.

External demand increased, too. According to provisional calculations, exports of goods and services were up a total 1.3% compared with the fourth quarter of 2016 (adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects). Although, in the same period, imports rose too, their increase was smaller (+0.4%) than that of exports. Arithmetically, the balance of exports and imports thus contributed +0.4 percentage points to GDP growth.

European stocks ended a choppy session slightly lower, weighed by German stocks, as the euro rallied after comments about the shared currency by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

U.S. stocks closed higher Monday for a third session of gains, recovering most of last week's sharp loss as tech and industrial stocks rallied in a day marked by lighter than usual volume.

Asian stocks rose as last week's global worries about the U.S. political landscape continued to ease, with Australian stocks stabilizing after their worst performance in months. Worries stemming from U.S. political uncertainty faded with President Donald Trump traveling in the Middle East and later this week to Europe. Investors also largely shrugged off further missile tests by North Korea over the weekend.