CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 22-05-2017

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei +87.52 19678.28 +0.45%

TOPIX +7.92 1567.65 +0.51%

Hang Seng +216.47 25391.34 +0.86%

CSI 300 +7.39 3411.24 +0.22%

Euro Stoxx 50 -10.48 3576.53 -0.29%

FTSE 100 +25.63 7496.34 +0.34%

DAX -19.23 12619.46 -0.15%

CAC 40 -1.52 5322.88 -0.03%

DJIA +89.99 20894.83 +0.43%

S&P 500 +12.29 2394.02 +0.52%

NASDAQ +49.91 6133.62 +0.82%

S&P/TSX +181.26 15458.46 +1.19%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1236 +0,26%

GBP/USD $1,2998 -0,28%

USD/CHF Chf0,9731 +0,04%

USD/JPY Y111,28 +0,02%

EUR/JPY Y125,04 +0,28%

GBP/JPY Y144,64 -0,27%

AUD/USD $0,7473 +0,23%

NZD/USD $0,6992 +0,99%

USD/CAD C$1,3498 -0,08%

00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) May 52.7

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m March 0.7%

06:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter I 0.4% 0.6%

06:00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter I 1.8% 1.7%

06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance April 3.1

07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) May 55.1 55.2

07:00 France Services PMI (Preliminary) May 56.7 56.4

07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) May 58.2 58

07:30 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) May 55.4 55.4

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) May 56.4 56.5

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) May 56.7 56.7

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate May 112.9 113.1

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations May 105.2 105.4

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment May 121.1 121.2

08:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln April -4.36 -8.15

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance May 38 10

12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m March -0.2%

13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) May 52.8 52.9

13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) May 53.1 53.1

14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index May 20

14:00 U.S. New Home Sales April 621 611

15:00 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks

19:15 U.S. FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

21:00 U.S. FOMC Member Harker Speaks

22:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln April 332

The main stock indexes on Wall Street rose on Monday, helped by the growth of shares in the technology sector, and against the backdrop of a multi-billion dollar arms deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia.

President Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia over the weekend and concluded deals for $ 110 billion, under which Riyadh will buy US weapons to help counter Iran, and for 10 years the amount of transactions should reach $ 350 billion.

Oil prices have increased moderately, supported by the belief that the main exporters this week will agree to extend the pact on the reduction of oil production, and, possibly, will offer to expand it. Experts note that oil rises in response to expectations that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, will extend for another 6 or 9 months its deal to reduce oil supplies by 1.8 million barrels per day. The extension of the agreement will be considered at a ministerial meeting of the monitoring committee on May 24 in Vienna, and then at a meeting of OPEC and countries outside the cartel on May 25. Meanwhile, according to informed sources, the OPEC meeting will discuss the possibility of more large-scale cuts in oil production than agreed for the first half of 1.8 million barrels per day. Some analysts believe that without increasing the volume of cuts, it will not be possible to restore the balance of supply and demand in the oil market this year. At the same time, the market has already laid in the price the extension of the agreements at least until the end of 2017.

Most components of the DOW index recorded a rise (21 out of 30). The shares of Pfizer Inc. fell more than others. (PFE, -0.88%). The leader of growth were the shares of Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO, + 1.83%).

All sectors of the S & P index finished trading in positive territory. The leader of growth was the technological sector (+ 0.9%).

At closing:

DJIA + 0.43% 20,895.17 +90.33

Nasdaq + 0.82% 6.133.62 +49.92

S & P + 0.52% 2.394.03 +12.30

EURUSD: 1.1085-95 (EUR 836m) 1.1100-10 (927m) 1.1130-40 (458m) 1.1150 (879m) 1.1200 (1.1bln) 1.1225 (1bln) 1.1240-50 (1bln) 1.1300-10 (735m)

USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 594m) 110.50 (250m) 111.00 (404m) 111.20 (331m) 111.40-50(1.03bln) 112.00 (633m) 112.40-50 (1.02bln) 113.00 (675m)

GBPUSD: 1.2930 (GBP 180m) 1.2975 (1.1bln) 1.2995-3000 (273m)

EURGBP: 0.8450 (EUR 190m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400 (AUD 366m) 0.7530-40 (566m) 0.7600 (203m)

USDCAD: 1.3600-10 (USD 216m)

EURJPY: 124.25 (EUR 805m) 125.00 (338m)

• Says iran plays "difficult" role in Syria; we expect Iran to behave responsibly in the region, supporting not terror politics but peace politics

• IMF and Eurogroup should make sure debt servicing leaves space for education, research, development in Greece

• Greece now needs the implementation of that promise from 2016

• We shouldn't waste time discussing EU treaty changes that can only be done in medium term at earliest

• Says Eurogroup offered prospect of Greek debt lightening already in 2016 in exchange for strong performance

U.S. stock-index futures were flat as a surge in oil prices offset concerns regarding ongoing political turmoil in the U.S.

Stocks:

Nikkei 19,678.28 +87.52 +0.45%

Hang Seng 25,391.34 +216.47 +0.86%

Shanghai 3,075.92 -14.71 -0.48%

S&P/ASX 5,771.21 +43.80 +0.76%

FTSE 7,509.65 +38.94 +0.52%

CAC 5,325.63 +1.23 +0.02%

DAX 12,591.91 -46.78 -0.37%

Crude $51.25 (+1.14%)

Gold $1,259.00 (+0.43%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Alcoa (AA) initiated with a Buy at Clarksons Platou

Apple (AAPL) target raised to $168 from $157 at RBC Capital Mkts

EUR/USD

Offers: 1.1200 1.1220 1.1260 1.1300 1.1350

Bids: 1.1150 1.1130 1.1100 1.1080 1.1065 1.1050

GBP/USD

Offers: 1.3000 1.3020-25 1.3050 1.3080 1.3100

Bids: 1.2950 1.2935 1.2920 1.2900 1.2875-80 1.2850

EUR/JPY

Offers: 124.85 125.00 125.30 125.50

Bids: 124.30 124.00 123.80 123.50 123.30 123.00

EUR/GBP

Offers: 0.8620-25 0.8655-60 0.8680 0.870

Bids: 0.8600 0.8585 0.8570 0.8550 0.8530-35 0.8500-10

USD/JPY

Offers: 111.50 111.60 111.80 112.00 112.30 112.60 112.80 113.00

Bids: 111.00 110.80 110.50 110.30 110.00

AUD/USD

Offers: 0.7460 0.7480 0.7500 0.7530 0.7550

Bids: 0.7430 0.7400 0.7380 0.7370 0.7350 0.7300

• Says low oil price also a factor

• French finmin minister Le Maire says working group will present concrete ideas on developing euro zone

• Schaeuble says working group to come up with ideas by july

• Le Maire says convinced will work well with Schaeuble to the benefit of France, Germany and Europe

• Schaeuble says both convinced Germany and France have special leadership role in strengthening euro zone

• Le Maire says France will respect its deficit reduction commitments

• Says sees rouble at 62-63 per dollar at the end of 2017 if global oil cut deal extended

• Says may lower 2017 inflation forecast if global oil cut deal extended

EURUSD: 1.1085-95 (EUR 836m) 1.1100-10 (927m) 1.1130-40 (458m) 1.1150 (879m) 1.1200 (1.1bln) 1.1225 (1bln) 1.1240-50 (1bln) 1.1300-10 (735m)

USDJPY: 110.00 (USD 594m) 110.50 (250m) 111.00 (404m) 111.20 (331m) 111.40-50(1.03bln) 112.00 (633m) 112.40-50 (1.02bln) 113.00 (675m)

GBPUSD: 1.2930 (GBP 180m) 1.2975 (1.1bln) 1.2995-3000 (273m)

EURGBP: 0.8450 (EUR 190m)

AUDUSD: 0.7400 (AUD 366m) 0.7530-40 (566m) 0.7600 (203m)

USDCAD: 1.3600-10 (USD 216m)

EURJPY: 124.25 (EUR 805m) 125.00 (338m)

• Feels Trump presidency likely to continue period of political volatility but markets can learn to get used to it

• Controversy in Washington has not yet had appreciable economic impact

• Expects "minimal" impact from balance sheet reduction on bond markets, assuming policy change communicated and managed appropriately

• Won't get a lot of jobs back in manufacturing; U.S. economy excels at services

• Both sides of political aisle agree on the importance of the independence of the Fed

• U.S. dollar is still seen as stable, world reserve currency

• Speculators increase cbot US 5-year treasury futures net short position by 23,739 contracts to 170,167 in week on may 16

• Speculators switch cbot US treasury bonds futures to net short position of 6,848 contracts in week on may 16 vs 5,178 net longs a week ago

European stocks finished Friday's session higher, modestly recovering from a selloff spurred by U.S. political drama that dragged major regional benchmarks into the red for the week.

U.S. stocks finished higher Friday for a second straight session of gains, but closed in negative territory for the week, unable to fully bounce back from sharp losses in the middle of the week sparked by White House drama.

Japanese exports rose 7.5% in April, buoyed by strong demand in Asia for semiconductors, semiconductor-making equipment and steel. It was the fifth consecutive month of increase for exports, data from Japan's Ministry of Finance showed. The increase was in line with the 8.2% increase expected by economists according to a Wall Street Journal survey.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1299 (6132)

$1.1260 (5514)

$1.1238 (6534)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1188

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1165 (784)

$1.1122 (610)

$1.1060 (2030)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 79482 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1000 (6534);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 94984 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,0700 (5504);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.20 versus 1.19 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 19

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3302 (1051)

$1.3204 (3467)

$1.3108 (3166)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2997

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2895 (1452)

$1.2797 (2090)

$1.2699 (2031)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 9 is 35464 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3878);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 9 is 36430 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (3061);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.04 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 19

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.