CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 28-09-2012

The euro fell against the dollar after the U.S. data released showed that the purchasing managers index and the index of consumer sentiment fell more than expected, increasing the demand for riskier assets.

The U.S. currency strengthened against all but two of the 16 most-traded currencies after the purchasing managers' index fell to Chicago for the first time in three years below 50, indicating contraction. The single currency fell significantly after yesterday's growth, which has been called the submitted plan budget of Spain in 2013.

Despite the decline, the euro rose slightly during the session on the background of published stress tests of banks in Spain, which were optimistic.

The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against the currencies of six trading partners, the U.S., added 0.4% to 79.868.

The Canadian dollar fell against its U.S. counterpart amid weak North American economic data. Canadian currency nears its weekly decline against most of its most traded currencies. Also today, it was reported that the yield on 10-year bonds fell to their lowest level in nearly two months. At the same time, Statistics Canada reported that in July, the economy grew by 0.2%, driven by an increase in the production of goods and services.

European stocks fell to a three- week low, trimming a quarterly gain for the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as investors awaited the results of stress tests on the Spanish banking system.

Hennes & Mauritz AB declined 1.7 percent after SEB AB and CA Cheuvreux SA advised investors to sell the shares. Electrocomponents Plc (ECM) plunged the most in more than seven years after saying full-year profit will miss projections. Cap Gemini SA (CAP) rose 0.8 percent after Accenture Plc forecast full-year earnings that topped analyst estimates. Air France-KLM gained 4.6 percent after UBS AG upgraded the shares.

The Stoxx 600 lost 1.2 percent to 268.48 at the close, the lowest since Sept. 5, as investors awaited the stress-test report. The gauge, which lost 2.7 percent this week, has still rallied 6.9 percent this quarter as global central banks expanded stimulus.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Cabinet yesterday approved a new tax on lottery winnings and a cut in ministries’ spending to shrink the euro area’s third-biggest budget deficit. The government set a 2013 target of 4.5 percent of gross domestic product, compared with a 6.3 percent goal for this year.

The Cabinet also approved using a pension reserve fund to meet an increase in retirement payments, Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria told reporters in Madrid before markets closed yesterday.

In France, President Francois Hollande’s first annual budget raised taxes by 20 billion euros ($26 billion), including a 75 percent levy on incomes above 1 million euros. He aims to reduce the deficit to 3 percent of GDP from 4.5 percent in 2012.

National benchmark indexes declined in 16 of the 18 western-European markets.

FTSE 100 5,740.93 -38.49 -0.67% CAC 40 3,363.6 -75.72 -2.20% DAX 7,226.81 -63.21 -0.87%

H&M (HMB) lost 1.7 percent to 228.20 kronor, falling for a third day. SEB and Cheuvreux downgraded the stock to sell or an equivalent recommendation, while Swedbank and Nordea Bank AB cut the shares to hold or a similar rating. Europe’s second-largest retailer reported on Sept. 27 third-quarter profit that missed analyst estimates.

Electrocomponents tumbled 8.8 percent to 200.30 pence, the sharpest decline since March 2005, after the company said full- year pretax profit will be “slightly below” the lower end of analyst estimates of between 110 million pounds ($179 million) and 120 million pounds.

London Stock Exchange Group Plc (LSE) plunged 8 percent to 943 pence, the sharpest decline since April 2009, after saying proposed European Union regulations will cut income at its Italian central counterparty and may require LCH.Clearnet Group Ltd. to boost capital.

Cap Gemini rose 0.8 percent to 32.93 euros, paring an earlier gain of as much as 2.9 percent. Accenture, the world’s second-largest technology-consulting company, said earnings for the fiscal year ending in August 2013 will be $4.22 to $4.30 a share, beating the median analyst estimate of $4.13.

Air France-KLM (AF) jumped 4.6 percent to 5.04 euros after UBS AG raised its rating on the shares to buy from neutral. The airlines has implemented some key restructuring measures that will help the “pricing environment” and reduce the number of loss-making flights.

Syngenta AG (SYNN) added 1.3 percent to 351.50 Swiss francs after HSBC raised its rating on the shares to overweight, the equivalent of buy, from neutral.

Oil heads for second weekly decline on concern that slowing economic growth will reduce demand. Also, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said that the level of reserves is adequate.

Prices fluctuated since the Commerce Department said the U.S. reported that consumer spending rose by 0.5%, in line with expectations of analysts. Also, yesterday's data showed that the rate of economic growth in the second quarter were lower than originally anticipated.

Secretary General of OPEC's El-Badri said today that "OPEC spare capacity and commercial inventories of common enough. The market is currently well supplied, and we see no deficit. "

Traders are also watching developments in the Middle East. Countries in this region and in North Africa produces 36% of the total amount of oil and kept about 52% of stocks in 2011.

Also yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on the international community to close Iran's nuclear program

Today, as two dozen countries that are focused on supporting the political opposition of Syria, will meet amid increasing signs that the regime of President Bashar al-Assad is losing control of the country.

October futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX is now $91,58 per barrel.

November futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix is ​​now $111,73 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Gold prices fell sharply today as the dollar went into positive territory against a basket of currencies. But, despite this, the precious metal remains on track for its largest quarterly gain of 10.9%, more than two years amid easing measures announced by the central banks of the world.

The most obvious catalyst for gold this year will be good news from Europe. And if we add to this the weakness of the dollar, the price of gold will reach new maximum values ​​noted in this year.

But the situation is emerging a little different. Today it was reported that the yield on 10-year bonds of Spain again exceeded the level of 6%, which is also reflected in European stocks that declined.

Little optimistic today was marked against the budget plan presented yesterday to the Spanish in 2013, the GDP of France and hesitant growth of the world economy.

Precious metals can also fix a positive quarter in terms of investment in gold exchange-traded funds. According to the data, gold is on the way to the largest quarterly inflow over the year at 3.285 million ounces.

From a technical point of view, the gold market is marked upward trend, but it faces a resistance at the maximum values ​​of 2012 at around $ 1791 per ounce. A move above the $ 1788 level will confirm the base at around $ 1737 and will open the way to $ 1803, and if this resistance is overcome, the growth may continue until the value of $ 1921 per ounce.

October futures price of gold on the COMEX is now 1773.30 an ounce.

U.S. stock futures fell as investors awaited results of stress tests on Spanish banks.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,870.16 -79.71 -0.89%
Hang Seng 20,840.38 +78.09 +0.38%
Shanghai Composite 2,086.17 +29.85 +1.45%
FTSE  5,764.51 -14.91 -0.26%
CAC  3,384.49 -54.83 -1.59%
DAX 7,244.97 -45.05 -0.62%
Crude oil 91.87 +0,02%
Gold $1779.00 -0.08%

McDonald's downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Montgomery Scott
Caterpillar downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Pfizer was initiated with Outperform at BMO Capital

Data:
05:30 France GDP, q/q (finally) Quarter II 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
05:30 France GDP, Y/Y (finally) Quarter II +0.3% +0.3% +0.3%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted August -0.9% +0.5% +0.3%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y August -1.0% -0.9% -0.8%
06:45 France Consumer spending August -0.4% -0.8%
06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y August -0.7% -0.5%
07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator September 1.57 1.54 1.67
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y September +2.6% +2.4% +2.7%

Euro fluctuates against the dollar on expectations of the results of stress tests of Spanish banks, as well as a possible downgrade by Moody's rating of Spain.
At the beginning of the European session, the euro has grown in the wake of news from Spain. On the eve of the Spanish government approved the draft budget for 2013, which provides for the reduction of GDP by 0.5%. However, according to international financial institutions and major banks, reducing the GDP of Spain in the next year will be at least 1%.
According to Finance Minister Cristobal Montoro, Spain to fulfill the task of achieving the planned target budget deficit of 6.3% in 2012, and next year the deficit was reduced to 4.5%. These indicators will be achieved by reducing government spending, tax increases and structural reforms that will save up to 40 billion euros.
Today, the players' attention is focused on the results of stress tests of Spanish banks, the Agency Oliver Wyman. According to previous estimates, banks may need E60-70 billion of capital against the results of the June stress testing agency Roland Berger, reveal the lack of funds in the E51-62 billion Others believe that these figures do not have anything to do with reality, because it does not take into account the volume performing loans on the balance sheets of institutions (the index is close to E170 billion).
With regard to regional statistics, consumer price inflation in the euro area September unexpectedly accelerated despite the recession, helped by higher prices of energy. Preliminary index HICP recorded an increase of 2.7% y / y vs. 2.6% August, as reported today in Luxembourg office statistics. Analysts surveyed before the release, expect the index to fall 2.4%. The main driver was the increase in energy prices (+9.2% from +8.9% in August), in the index HICP excluding energy registered a rise of only 0.8%. For 2 years in a row the rate of inflation in the euro area held above the ECB target of 2% threshold. As reported this week, the central bank Ewald Nowotny and Benoit Cair, Monetary Policy Committee at the meeting on October 4, is likely to leave rates unchanged value.
The British pound fell against the U.S. dollar. The index of activity in the service sector in Britain rose by only 0.1% against expectations of a 1.5%. Negative sentiment is partly returned to the market, as the budget of Spain caused some skepticism. Spanish bond yield rose above 6%.

EUR / USD: pair rose to $ 1.2959 and then fell to $ 1.2914
GBP / USD: pair dropped to $ 1.6185
USD / JPY: pair updated week low Y77.42 and then rose to an intraday high of Y77.70

The day ended block of statistics from the U.S.: 12:30 GMT - the main index for personal consumption expenditures, deflator for personal consumption expenditures, the change in spending for August, at 13:00 GMT - an index of housing prices in 20 cities S & P / CaseShiller, national composite house price index S & P / CaseShiller for July, at 13:45 GMT - Chicago PMI index for September and 13:55 GMT - an indicator of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan in September.

EUR/USD 

Offers     $1.3020, $1.2990/300, $1.2975

Bids    $1.2925/20, $1.2910/00, $1.2885/80, $1.2800

UK Treasury Bills placed at $ 2.5 billion pounds

One-month Treasury Bills amounting to 0.5 mlrd pounds, the average yield 0.237%, the coverage ratio 5.26;

3-month Treasury Bills in the amount of 0.5 billion pounds, the average yield of 0.264%, the coverage ratio 3.94;

6-month Treasury Bills in the amount of 1.5 billion pounds, the average yield of 0.303%, the coverage ratio 2.95.

Most European stocks rose, with the equity benchmark heading for its biggest quarterly gain in three years, on optimism Spanish measures to reduce budget deficits will pave the way for the country’s bailout.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Cabinet yesterday approved a new tax on lottery winnings and a cut in ministries’ spending to shrink the euro area’s third-biggest budget deficit. The government set a 2013 target of 4.5 percent of gross domestic product, compared with a 6.3 percent goal for this year.

The Cabinet also approved using a pension reserve fund to meet an increase in retirement payments, Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria told reporters in Madrid before markets closed yesterday.

Cap Gemini rose 2.4 percent to 33.46 euros. Accenture, the world’s second-largest technology consulting company, said earnings for the fiscal year ending in August 2013 will be $4.22 to $4.30 a share, exceeding the average analyst estimate of $4.13.

Novo Nordisk advanced 0.6 percent to 921 kroner after saying Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare approved Tresiba, its insulin drug used in treating diabetes. The company expects to start selling the drug in Japan after price negotiations are completed.

FTSE 100 5,791.59 +12.17 +0.21%

CAC 40 3,433.59 -5.73 -0.17%

DAX 7,298.44 +8.42 +0.12%

EUR/USD $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2875, $1.2890, $1.2910, $1.3000

USD/JPY Y77.25, Y77.50, Y78.00

EUR/JPY Y102.00

GBP/USD $1.6150, $1.6235

EUR/GBP stg0.7900

USD/CHF Chf0.9375

AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0420, $1.0470

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as signs of slowing global economic growth outweighed optimism Spain’s progress on deficit goals will help Europe contain its debt crisis. Asia’s regional benchmark index headed for its biggest monthly advance since June.

Nikkei 225 8,870.16 -79.71 -0.89%

S&P/ASX 200 4,387.02 +2.85 +0.06%

Shanghai Composite 2,086.17 +29.85 +1.45%

Hutchinson Whampoa Ltd., a Hong Kong-based operator ports in Europe, gained 1.2 percent as Spain proposed a fifth austerity budget that may allow it to meet deficit targets agreed to with the euro zone.

Korea Aerospace Industries Ltd. surged 15 percent after Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. made a bid for an $890 million stake in the planemaker.

Machinery-maker SMC Corp. slid 1.2 percent in Tokyo after Japan’s industrial production fell more than estimated.

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m August +0.2% +0.3% +0.2%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y August +4.2% +4.3% +4.1%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y August -9.6% -7.4% -5.5%

Yesterday the euro strengthened against the dollar after Spain announced its fifth austerity package, stating that it will comply with the requirements of the European financial rescue to contain the debt crisis.

The single currency rose after it reached a two-week low against the dollar as European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said that the budget plan Spain "meets country-specific recommendations and even goes beyond them in some areas. " The dollar weakened against most currencies after the published data, which showed that the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell much more than expected. At the same time, for the first time in six days rose stocks pulling the rise in oil prices.

Finally, we note that an element that is now viewed as a positive, increases the likelihood that Spain will get its financial assistance.

The pound rose for the first time in four days against the dollar after a government report showed that the economy shrank less than previously estimated in the second quarter, adding optimism that the recession is waning.

Sterling rose to a three-week high against the euro after the Spanish protests were held in Madrid for an end to austerity measures. General strike in Greece attracted 35,000 protesters in central Athens. It is learned that the UK's gross domestic product fell by 0.4% in the second quarter, not 0.5% reported last month.

Asian stocks rose as a drop in Chinese industrial profits increased pressure on Premier Wen Jiabao to step up measures to support growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

Nikkei 225 8,949.87 +43.17 +0.48%

S&P/ASX 200 4,384.2 +22.60 +0.52%

Shanghai Composite 2,052.2 +48.03 +2.40%

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., the country’s biggest developer by market value listed in Hong Kong, rose 1.7 percent.

Renesas Electronics Corp. advanced 1.3 percent after Kyodo reported a government-backed counter offer for the Japanese chipmaker may be double a bid by KKR & Co.

Nitori Holdings Co. fell 8.6 percent in Tokyo after the furniture retailer reported profit that missed analyst estimates.

Change % Change Last

Oil $89.95 -0.03 -0.03%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,949.87 +43.17 +0.48%

S&P/ASX 200 4,384.2 +22.60 +0.52%

Shanghai Composite 2,052.2 +48.03 +2.40%

FTSE 100 5,770.85 +2.76 +0.05%

CAC 40 3,432.81 +17.97 +0.53%

DAX 7,279.86 +3.35 +0.05%

Dow -41.62 13,415.93 -0.31%

Nasdaq -24.03 3,093.70 -0.77%

S&P -8,26 1,433.59 -0.55% 

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2914 +0,32%

GBP/USD $1,6234 +0,41%

USD/CHF Chf0,9370 -0,23%

USD/JPY Y77,62 -0,13%

EUR/JPY Y100,24 +0,18%

GBP/JPY Y126,00 +0,28%

AUD/USD $1,0445 +0,70%

NZD/USD $0,8314 +0,87%

USD/CAD C$0,9801 -0,47%

01:00 New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence August 19.5

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index September +1.3% +0.2%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y September -0.7% -0.6%

06:00 Germany Import prices August +0.7% +0.9%

06:00 Germany Import prices Y/Y August +1.2% +2.7%

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change September 9 10

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. September 6.8% 6.8%

08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y August +3.8% +3.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Current account, bln Quarter II -11.2 -12.2

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (finally) Quarter II -0.5% -0.5%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (finally) Quarter II -0.5% -0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator September -1.21 -1.20

09:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence September -15.3 -15.0

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders August +4.2% -4.3%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation August -0.4% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense August -3.4% +0.7%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 382 378

12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (finally) Quarter II +1.7% +1.7%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter II +1.7% +1.7%

14:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) August +2.4% -0.7%

22:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m August +2.0% +3.0%

23:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence September -29 -27

23:15 Japan Manufacturing PMI September 47.7

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y August +1.7% +1.1%

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate August 4.3% 4.3%

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y August -0.4% -0.5%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y August -0.3% -0.3%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y September -0.7% -0.6%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y September -0.5% -0.3%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (preliminary) August -1.0% -0.4%