CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 26-09-2012

The euro fell to a two-week low against the dollar after the yield on 10-year bonds in Spain over 6% for the first time since September 18, and the central bank, said the EU's gross domestic product declined in the quarter, sparking concern that the debt crisis in region deteriorates.

The single currency weakened on the seventh day against the yen after the finance ministers of Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, said that the foundation of saving Europe should be given a limited role in the bank recapitalization.

The dollar and yen rose against most traded currencies on speculation that central banks around the world will struggle to revive growth, stimulating the demand for safe assets.

Euro today fell to $ 1.2855 while still achieving the lowest level since September 12.

The Australian dollar fell against most currencies on concerns that political conflict will impede attempts to resolve the debt crisis in Europe, which has undermined demand for riskier assets. Rates fell $ 1.0366, after earlier fell to its lowest level since September 11.

British pound showed an increase against the U.S. dollar after a study of retail trade in Britain showed a positive result. In September, retailers reported increased sales, predicting positive momentum in the next month, as announced today the Confederation of British Industry. According to the study CBI, based on information collected during the first two weeks of this month, 33% of retailers reported an increase in sales compared to the index registered in the previous year, while 27% reported a drop in sales. Thus, the balance amounted to 6, in line with analysts' forecasts. Value is also improved compared to the previous month, when the balance reached 3%.

• Shyness can lead to undesirable consequences

• Then it's time to act

• Passivity - the risk to which it is not necessary to go

• Fed should mitigate the policy until inflation is below 3%

• Fed should mitigate the policy until the unemployment rate is more than 7%

• Strongly supported the Fed's decision

• Some of the issues include slower growth, the situation in Europe, budget break

• Adequate policy does not lead to inflation

• Soft policy can increase employment, production, income

• A stronger economy will be stable in the face of slowing global growth

• The softer policy means strengthening the U.S. economy

European stocks slid the most in two months as Spain prepared to present its budget and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said the third round of bond buying may fail to stimulate growth.

Acciona SA (ANA) sank 9.9 percent, leading Spanish builders lower a day before the government presents its budget for next year. Banco Santander SA (SAN), Spain’s largest lender, retreated 4.5 percent. Anglo American Plc (AAL) lost 3.7 percent after saying that it plans to reduce its production of coal.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index plunged 1.7 percent to 271.09, its largest drop since July 23.

In Spain, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has struggled to persuade people to accept the deepest austerity measures on record. Unions and protest groups, spurred by the Portuguese government’s decision to drop a planned tax increase following demonstrations, have demanded a referendum on Rajoy’s cuts.

Economy Minister Luis de Guindos will present additional measures tomorrow that the European Commission requires as part of efforts to bring down Spain’s borrowing costs. Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro will unveil the 2013 budget.

In Greece today, public- and private-sector workers will hold a 24-hour general strike.

National benchmark indexes fell in every western-European market except for Greece.

FTSE 100 5,776.22 -83.49 -1.42% CAC 40 3,429.24 -84.57 -2.41% DAX 7,288.11 -137.00 -1.85%

Acciona slumped 9.9 percent to 45.10 euros, its biggest tumble since November 2008, while Actividades de Construccion & Servicios SA, Spain’s biggest construction company, lost 5.4 percent to 16.03 euros. Obrascon Huarte Lain SA (OHL) slid 5.3 percent to 18.49 euros. Ferrovial SA (FER) declined 4.8 percent to 9.72 euros.

BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s biggest mining company, retreated 2.4 percent to 1,908 pence. Rio Tinto Group, the third-largest, dropped 3.4 percent to 2,841 pence. Copper, lead, nickel and tin fell in

Infineon Technologies AG (IFX) slipped 3.4 percent to 4.94 euros, declining for an eighth day. Jefferies Group Inc. cut its recommendation on Europe’s second-biggest semiconductor maker to underperform from hold, meaning investors should sell the shares.

ICAP Plc (IAP) tumbled 3.3 percent to 332.5 pence. The world’s largest broker of transactions between banks predicted that fiscal first-half revenue will drop 14 percent from the previous year because of reduced activity on capital markets.

CGGVeritas (GA) decreased 1.9 percent to 24.93 euros. The company started a 414 million-euro ($532 million) rights offer to help finance its acquisition of Fugro NV’s seismic division. The largest seismic surveyor of oilfields said it will sell the new stock at 17 euros a share.

Technip SA (TEC), Europe’s second-largest oilfield-services provider, retreated 2.4 percent to 86.86

Statoil ASA (STL) dropped 2.8 percent to 149.20 kroner. Norway’s national oil company was cut to sell from buy at Nordea Bank AB.

Oil prices fell sharply, weighed down by concerns that the fragile global economy may hit demand, although the risk of supply disruptions between Iran and Western countries due to the tense situation still remains.

The protests in Spain against austerity measures have increased fears of a three-year extension of the debt crisis in the euro zone. At the same time, U.S. companies have to reduce profits amid the global slowdown.

Both contracts for crude oil sent to its first monthly decline in three months, even despite the fact that earlier this month, prices reached a four-month high.

In Spain, protesters clashed with police in the capital, as the government prepared a new package of unpopular austerity budget for 2013, which will be announced on Thursday.

Investors also remain concerned about weak demand in China, which is the second largest oil consumer in the world, as small firms, which are the main driving force of economic growth, the lack of money.

Despite the drop in oil prices on Wednesday supported by rising tensions in Iran and the rumors of a possible reduction in the supply of key seller of oil to Asia.

October futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX is now $89,48 per barrel.

November futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix is ​​now $108,94 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Gold prices fell more than 1 percent against the strengthening dollar and falling stock markets and other commodities, combined with profit-taking before the end of the quarter.

Also to reduce the cost of gold has affected the information that the Spanish government bond yields rose above 6% on the fact that, the Spanish province continue to require financial assistance from the government in Madrid, which could lead to the need for additional international aid to Spain, and early elections. The government is considering the possibility of Andalusia ask Madrid financial support of almost 5 billion euros. Catalonia, Valencia and Murcia have already asked for help to Madrid.

Gold reserves are supported by exchange traded funds, increased by nearly 300,000 ounces on Tuesday to a record 74.063 million ounces,

At the same time, the appetite for gold from India remains fragile. Importers of gold stayed away from deals after prices rose to two-week low due to a weak rupee.

October futures price of gold on the COMEX is now $1740.70 an ounce.

EUR/USD $1.2675, $1.2850, $1.2910, $1.2950, $1.3000

USD/JPY Y77.60, Y78.00, Y78.15, Y78.50, Y78.65

EUR/JPY Y99.00

GBP/USD $1.6250

EUR/GBP stg0.7980

USD/CHF Chf0.9350

EUR/CHF Chf1.2095

AUD/USD $1.385, $1.0400, $1.0500

U.S. stock-index futures were little changed as investor optimism fueled by central-bank stimulus continued to wane.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei  8,906.7 -184.84 -2.03%
Hang Seng 20,527.73 -170.95 -0.83%
Shanghai Composite 2,004.17 -25.12 -1.24%
FTSE  5,785.77 -73.94 -1.26%
CAC  3,440.44 -73.37 -2.09%
DAX 7,289.63 -135.48 -1.82%
Crude oil $90.25 -1,23%
Gold $1748.40 1.02%

Euro updated intraday low of $ 1.2836

Data:

08:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter III

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance September -3 6 6

12:00 Germany CPI, m/m (preliminary) September +0.4% 0.0% +0.4%

12:00 Germany CPI, y/y (preliminary) September +2.1% +2.0% +2.1%

During the European session, the euro fell against the dollar and said two-week low against the yen amid concerns about Spain. Spain was under pressure due to the fact that in the next two days there will be announced on the budget, banking and structural reforms, and yet the market still remains little hope that the country asks for help. In addition, there is a risk downgrades by Moody's at the end of this week. Bank of Spain considers that in Q3. Spanish GDP can be significantly reduced, given recent economic data.

In Italy, the volume of retail sales in September fell by 0.2% m / m and 3.2% y / y vs. -0.5% y / y in August. French consumer confidence index in September fell to around 85 vs. 86 and 87 August result. Germany held an auction of 10-year bonds, being able to sell the securities in the amount of € 3.19 billion from € 5 billion of planned yield also increased from 1.42% to 1.52%.

British pound showed an increase against the U.S. dollar after a study of retail trade in Britain showed a positive result. In September, retailers reported increased sales, predicting positive momentum in the next month, as announced today the Confederation of British Industry.

According to the study CBI, based on information collected during the first two weeks of this month, 33% of retailers reported an increase in sales compared to the index registered in the previous year, while 27% reported a drop in sales. Thus, the balance amounted to 6, in line with analysts' forecasts. Value is also improved compared to the previous month, when the balance reached 3%.

EUR/USD

Offers   $1.3000, $1.2970/80

Bids   $1.2830-15, $1.2800, $1.2770/50

European stocks slid the most in a week after Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said that the third round of bond buying may fail to stimulate growth or hiring.

Plosser said yesterday after the close of European trading that the Fed’s latest round of quantitative easing may jeopardize the central bank’s credibility.

In addition, the tension in the markets related to the situation in Spain. Thus, the Spanish provinces continue to require financial assistance from the government in Madrid, which could lead to the need for more international aid to Spain, and early elections. The government is considering the possibility of Andalusia ask Madrid financial support of almost 5 billion euros. Catalonia, Valencia and Murcia have already asked for help to Madrid. Catalan President Artur Mas has already appointed on November 25, early elections that could turn into a referendum on more autonomy for the province. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has rejected demands Catalonia give her a more substantial tax autonomy. Also tomorrow, the government of Spain Prime Minister Mariano Raho intends to submit a draft budget for 2013, and all of the market's attention is now focused on the news again, which could indicate the possible development of events related to the debt crisis in the eurozone.

Recall that in July M.Rahoy presented the package of austerity measures, in which the tax increase was combined with a reduction in salaries in the public sector and payments provided for by benefits. As a result of these measures the Spanish budget deficit of 2.5 years, is scheduled to drop to a level of 65 billion euros. Spain intends to reduce its budget deficit to 4.5% of GDP in 2013 to 6.3% in the current year.

Anglo American Plc lost 2.5 percent, contributing the most to a decline by a gauge of mining companies, after saying that it plans to reduce its production of coal.

BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group retreated 1.6 percent and 2 percent, respectively, as metal prices dropped.

FTSE 100 5,794.6 -65.11 -1.11%

CAC 40 3,444.16 -69.65 -1.98%

DAX 7,310.33 -114.78 -1.55%

Germany alloted E3.191bln in tap of 10-year benchmark 1.50% Sep 2022 Bund Wednesday at an average yield of 1.52% (1.42%), bid-to-cover ratio of 1.2 (1.1) and retianed 36.2% (27.8%).

EUR/USD $1.2675, $1.2850, $1.2910, $1.2950, $1.3000

USD/JPY Y77.60, Y78.00, Y78.15, Y78.50, Y78.65

EUR/JPY Y99.00

GBP/USD $1.6250

EUR/GBP stg0.7980

USD/CHF Chf0.9350

EUR/CHF Chf1.2095

AUD/USD $1.385, $1.0400, $1.0500

Sold E9.0bln 6-month BOT, average yield 1.503% (1.585%), cover 1.39 (1.69).

Asian stocks fell amid concern stimulus measures by central banks from the U.S to Asia and Europe won’t be enough to boost global economic growth and as more than 900 companies in Japan’s Topix Index traded ex- dividend today.

Nikkei 225 8,906.7 -184.84 -2.03%

S&P/ASX 200 4,361.6 -11.26 -0.26%

Shanghai Composite 2,003.52 -25.77 -1.27%

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, fell 1.3 percent in Sydney.

BYD Co., the Chinese carmaker partly owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., tumbled 9 percent in Hong Kong as CLSA Asia Pacific Markets cut its price target by 94 percent, citing a worsening outlook for its products.

22:45 New Zealand Trade Balance August 0.015 -0.610 -0.789

Yesterday the dollar and yen fell against its most traded counterparts as the better-than-expected data on house prices and consumer confidence, demand for refuge assets.

The euro rose against the dollar after the European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said he does not see the need to cut interest rates further at the moment, as investors had expected. Also increased the probability to provide slop Spain. The shares rose as consumer confidence in the U.S. in September reached a seven-month high.

Also, after the Spanish auction three-month yield bonds rose to the level of 1.203%, compared with 0.946% at the previous auction, which took place on August 28.

The data also showed that the index of German and French business confidence remained unchanged, while in Italy the figure fell to 15-year low.

The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against the currencies of six trading partners, the U.S., fell 0.1% to 79.408.

Asia’s benchmark stock index swung between gains and losses as increases among telecommunications companies offset drops in exporters after weaker German business confidence curbed the outlook for sales to Europe.

Nikkei 225 9,091.54 +22.25 +0.25%

S&P/ASX 200 4,372.9 -12.57 -0.29%

Shanghai Composite 2,029.29 -3.90 -0.19%

Telecom Corp. of New Zealand Ltd., the nation’s largest provider of Internet connections, advanced 1.9 percent, as investors sought shares with earnings less tied to economic growth.

Brother Industries Ltd., a Japanese office-equipment maker that gets almost 30 percent of sales from Europe, fell 1 percent.

Komatsu Ltd., the world’s second-biggest construction- equipment maker, lost 1 percent in Tokyo as competitor Caterpillar Inc. cut its 2015 profit forecast.

Change % Change Last

Oil $91.23 -0.14 -0.15%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 9,091.54 +22.25 +0.25%

S&P/ASX 200 4,372.9 -12.57 -0.29%

Shanghai Composite 2,029.29 -3.90 -0.19%

FTSE 100 5,863.14 +24.30 +0.42%

CAC 40 3,513.64 +16.42 +0.47%

DAX 7,423.66 +10.50 +0.14%  

Dow -101.29 13,457.63 -0.75%

Nasdaq -43.05 3,117.73 -1.36%

S&P -15.26 1,441.63 -1.05%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2903 -0,21%

GBP/USD $1,6194 -0,16%

USD/CHF Chf0,9375 +0,23%

USD/JPY Y77,80 -0,08%

EUR/JPY Y100,39 -0,29%

GBP/JPY Y125,97 -0,23%

AUD/USD $1,0385 -0,39%

NZD/USD $0,8214 -0,12%

USD/CAD C$0,9801 +0,18%

08:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey Quarter III

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance September -3 6

12:00 Germany CPI, m/m (preliminary) September +0.4% 0.0%

12:00 Germany CPI, y/y (preliminary) September +2.1% +2.0%

14:00 U.S. New Home Sales August 372 381

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - +8.5