CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 24-09-2012

The euro fell to one-week low against the dollar after an index of German business confidence unexpectedly fell in September, adding to signs that the euro zone debt crisis hinders the region's economy.

The single currency continued its five-day decline against the yen after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande were unable to agree on the start time of a single regulator of the banking sector in the eurozone. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande In the last weekend of negotiations failed to agree on the start time of a single regulator of the banking sector in the eurozone. F.Olland stands for "as quickly as possible activation" controller, while Merkel rejects those calls.

IFO institute in Munich said its business climate index fell again, registering with the fifth consecutive drop in a row.

The Australian dollar weakened on speculation that growth in China, which is its biggest trading partner, is deteriorating. According to the head of the National Development and Reform Commission Zhang Ping downward pressure on the economy of the Asian countries is increasing, the problems in Europe are still in the phase of 'high risk', and the global economic recovery is "rough."

The euro fell today to $ 1.2925, while reaching the lowest level since September 13. The single currency dropped to 100.64 yen, which is a minimum of 24 July.

The yen strengthened against all major currencies amid falling stocks triggering a series of stop orders in the market, which accelerated the overall decline observed today.

In accordance with the released data, Japan's economy back on the road to recovery. At the same time, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased its asset purchase fund to 55 trillion yen ($ 710 billion).

The New Zealand dollar fell on speculation that the differences between the leaders of the eurozone could cause a negative impact on growth prospects, leading to a decline in demand for higher-yielding assets.

European stocks dropped as Germany and France disagreed on when to introduce a banking union for the euro area and a report added to concern about the strength of China’s economy.

Anglo American Plc slid 2.6 percent, contributing the most to a decline by a gauge of mining companies. CGGVeritas (GA) tumbled 5.3 percent after agreeing to buy Fugro NV (FUR)’s seismic division for 1.2 billion euros ($1.6 billion). TNT Express NV (TNTE) lost 2.6 percent as the company’s chief executive officer resigned.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) fell 0.4 percent to 274.7 at the close, its largest drop since Sept. 18. Metal producers, banks and construction companies declined.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected French President Francois Hollande’s appeal to activate oversight of the banking union “the earlier, the better.” The deadlock over regulation may delay into next year a key building block in resolving the single currency’s debt crisis.

In China, manufacturers and retailers are less optimistic about sales than they were three months ago. Previous economic reports showed that manufacturing, trade and retail sales slowed in the third quarter. That pointed to a seventh straight deceleration in quarterly growth and potentially the weakest annual expansion for the world’s second- largest economy in 22 years.

National benchmark indexes fell in every western-European market except Denmark and Iceland.

FTSE 100 5,838.84 -13.78 -0.24% CAC 40 3,497.22 -33.50 -0.95% DAX 7,413.16 -38.46 -0.52%

The price of oil fell for the fifth time in six days due to disagreements regarding the European debt crisis and weaker-than-expected data on Germany.

Prices fell by 1.8%, after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande has agreed to schedule the introduction of joint supervision of banks in Europe at a meeting on September 22. At the same time the German business confidence unexpectedly fell to the lowest level in more than two years, thus causing a decline in the euro.

News from Europe cause a stronger dollar, which puts pressure on the expected demand for oil. It makes people think that even $ 90 oil is too expensive.

In his speech, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has rejected the appeal of French President Francois Hollande to intensify supervision over the banking alliance, "the sooner the better." Impasse in solving this problem is to delay addressing key issues for the euro zone.

Prices also declined amid falling U.S. stocks.

Also note that last week the Department of Energy reported that gasoline demand continued to decline during the seven days that ended on 14 September, by 0.7% to 8.63 million barrels a day, while still achieving the weakest level since July 13 .

Oil also fell after the data is the U.S. Fed Beige Book showed that China manufacturers and retailers are less optimistic about sales than it was three months ago.

October futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX is now $91,46 per barrel.

November futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix is now $109,08 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Gold prices fell by almost 1% on Monday, departing from the six-month maximum, as the dollar rose and the cost of high-risk assets, such as stocks, euro, oil and other commodities fell.

Gold continues to build, and aims to grow more and more, after central banks including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have announced a new round of easing monetary policy at the beginning of this month.

Further monetary easing is likely to keep the pressure on long-term interest rates, and increasing the appeal of gold.

Note that many investors bought before announcing QE3, but now they are again selling gold to take profits. But long-term players are still in the market, and in particular this exchange-traded funds.

Due to the stronger dollar and caution among investors about the uncertain prospects for Europe the price of gold may continue to decline, but only in the short term.

The data also showed that the stock of gold in exchange-traded funds have grown by nearly 330,000 ounces on Friday to the level of 73.748 million ounces, updating the high of the last week at 73.681 million ounces.

Most of the inflows were seen in the largest fund SPDR Gold Trust, which issues securities backed by physical metal, which is a very popular way to invest in gold in recent years.

Meanwhile, consumer demand for gold in India has grown, as the decline in local prices to three-week low sparked a wave of purchases.

October futures price of gold on the COMEX is now 1766.0 dollars per ounce.

Sold E3.014bln vs Target E2.0-E3.0bln

- E785mln 3.50% 2017 OLO; avg yield 1.241% (1.34%), cover 2.11 (1.76)

- E500mln 3.00% 2019 OLO; avg yield 1.997% (2.004%), cover 2.32 (1.48)

- E784mln 4.25% 2021 OLO; avg yield 2.389%, cover 2.08

- E945mln 4.25% 2022 OLO; avg yield 2.609% (2.584%), cover 1.85 (1.88)

EUR/USD $1.2925, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3125

USD/JPY Y77.50, Y78.00, Y78.45

GBP/USD $1.6150, $1.6250, $1.6300

EUR/GBP stg0.8000

AUD/USD $1.0475, $1.0500

U.S. stock futures fell as European leaders clashed on ways to stem the debt crisis and data from China and Germany signaled the slowdown is deepening.

Global Stocks:

Sold E6.765bln vs target E5.6bln-E6.8bln

- E3.798bln 3-month BTF, avg yield -0.016% (-0.012%), cover 2.88 (2.77)

- E1.698bln 6-month BTF, avg yield -0.006% (-0.004%), cover 4.37 (5.83)

- E1.269bln 12-month BTF, avg yield 0.006% (0.029%), cover 2.86 (2.68)

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) Mizuho Reiterated Neutral.

Data
08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate September 102.3 102.7 101.4
08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment September 111.2 111.0 110.3
08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations September 94.2 95.0 93.2

The euro fell against the dollar and the yen amid controversy in Germany and France on the start time of a single regulator of the banking sector in the eurozone.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande In the last weekend of negotiations failed to agree on the start time of a single regulator of the banking sector in the eurozone. F.Olland stands for "as quickly as possible activation" controller, while Merkel rejects those calls.

Well as the pressure on the single currency in the region has published statistics where German business confidence collapsed to a minimum for more than 2.5 years. Thus, the index of business sentiment IFO 101,4 versus 102.3 projected. Expectations index 93.2 vs 95.0 forecast. The current conditions index 110.3 versus 111.0 projected.

The Australian dollar fell against most major currencies, amid reports of further weakening of economic growth in China, which is the largest trading partner of Australia.

•  

  Germany sold E1.173bln 12-month Bubill at average yield -0.0184% (-0.0246%), cover 5.1 (2.0) and E1.827ln or 60.9% held for secondary market operations vs 34.2% previously.

EUR/USD

Offers  $1.3020, $1.3000, $1.2980

Bids $1.2890/85, $1.2855/50, $1.2810/00

European stocks dropped as Germany and France disagreed on when to introduce a banking union for the 17-nation single currency.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected French President Francois Hollande’s appeal to activate oversight of the banking union “the earlier, the better.” Deadlock over regulation may delay into next year a key building block in resolving the single currency’s debt crisis.

Speaking at a meeting on Sept. 22 near Ludwigsburg, Germany, Merkel said that the proposed banking union “has to be thorough, the quality has to be good and then we’ll see how long it takes.”

Anglo American retreated 2.6 percent to 1,888 pence after Bank of America Corp. downgraded the commodity producer to neutral from buy.

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, dropped 1.3 percent to 3,002 pence as copper fell, following its first weekly drop in three on the London Metal Exchange.

Syngenta AG gained 0.9 percent to 347.10 Swiss francs after the world’s largest agrochemicals company increased its target for sales in 2020 by $3 billion as it accelerates the introduction of new technology and benefits from a reorganization.

FTSE 100 5,819.68 -32.94 -0.56%

CAC 40 3,486.32 -44.40 -1.26%

DAX 7,402.45 -49.17 -0.66%

• Should monitor the impact of the yen's rise on the Japanese economy

• We are not trying to directly influence the exchange rate yen

• Will act as needed to counter the influence of the yen on the economy, prices

• Slowing foreign economies exacerbated recovery delayed

• Concerned about signs of weakness in the U.S. economy

• There is little difference in the basic thinking, the effect of easing the Fed and the Bank of Japan

EUR/USD $1.2925, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3125

USD/JPY Y77.50, Y78.00, Y78.45

GBP/USD $1.6150, $1.6250, $1.6300

EUR/GBP stg0.8000

AUD/USD $1.0475, $1.0500

Asian stocks fell amid concern that talks among European leaders to resolve the region’s debt crisis are deadlocked, curbing the earnings outlook for the region’s exporters.

Nikkei 225 9,069.29 -40.71 -0.45%

S&P/ASX 200 4,385.5 -22.79 -0.52%

Shanghai Composite 2,038.33 +11.64 +0.57%

Canon Inc., a Japanese camera maker that gets 30 percent of its sales in Europe, slid 3.9 percent.

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, retreated 2.4 percent in Sydney as declining copper prices dragged raw-material shares lower.

The yen advanced versus all of its major counterparts as Asian stock declined amid concern disagreement on debt-crisis solutions will curb European growth, supporting demand for haven assets. Japan’s currency touched its strongest in more than a week against the euro before a report that may show business confidence in Germany held near the lowest in more than two years. The Ifo institute’s business climate index, a gauge of confidence among German executives, was probably at 102.5 this month, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The index fell to 102.3 in August, the lowest since March 2010. The Munich-based institute will release the data today.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande clashed over the weekend on a timetable to introduce joint oversight of the euro area’s banking sector.

Australia’s dollar slid versus its peers on speculation growth in China, its biggest trading partner, is weakening.

On Friday the euro rose against the dollar after the media reported that the euro-area policy will present a program of financial rescue Spain in the beginning of next week.

The single currency rose for the first time in four days against the yen after the Financial Times said that officials of Spain and the European Union are working on plans for bond purchases by the European Central Bank to support the economy of countries in need.The plan will be announced on September 27 and will focus on structural reforms in the economy of Spain, at the request of the EU, not in new taxes and spending cuts.

Also, the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will meet with his Italian counterpart Mario Monti in Rome.

The pound rose to its highest level in over a year against the dollar, despite the fact that the United Kingdom reported the largest budget deficit in August.

The Canadian dollar was down against the U.S. dollar after the controversial data on consumer prices in Canada in August. Basic annual inflation in Canada was 1.6%, below the Bank of Canada's target of 2% in the medium term. Overall inflation was 1.2%. Economists had expected core inflation of 1.5%, and the total - 1.3%.

Asian stocks rose, paring the regional benchmark index’s first weekly decline in three weeks, as Apple Inc.’s iPhone 5 debut boosted information technology shares and energy companies advanced on higher crude prices.

Nikkei 225 9,110 +23.02 +0.25%

S&P/ASX 200 4,408.3 +11.07 +0.25%

Shanghai Composite 2,026.69 +1.85 +0.09%

Samsung Electronics Co., a smartphone maker that gets 9 percent of its sales from Apple, gained 1.2 percent in Seoul as the new iPhone went on sale.

Inpex Corp., Japan’s No.1 energy explorer, advanced 2 percent as crude oil rebounded from a 7.2 percent drop in the past four days.

GrainCorp Ltd. rose 1.2 percent as JPMorgan Chase & Co. advised buying shares of eastern Australia’s largest grain handler.

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate September 102.3 102.7

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment September 111.2 111.0

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations September 94.2 95.0

12:30 U.S. Chicago Federal National Activity Index August -0.13

19:00 Canada BOC Gov Carney Speaks -

19:30 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -