CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 20-09-2012

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20.09.2012

19:01

Dow 13,578 +0 +0.00%, Nasdaq 3,174 -9 -0.27%, S&P 500 1,459 -2 -0.14%

17:54

American focus: euro fell

The euro dropped the most in two months against the dollar as services and manufacturing in the region shrank to a three-year low, adding to evidence the central bank will need to do more to spur growth.

The yen and the dollar strengthened against most of their major counterparts as demand for the perceived safety of those nations’ assets increased after separate reports showed China’s manufacturing and Japanese exports declined for a third month.

A preliminary reading was 47.8 for a China purchasing managers’ index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) and Markit Economics, compared with a final level of 47.6 last month. Japan’s overseas shipments slid 5.8 percent on weakness in demand from Europe and China.

The euro weakened against most of its 16 major peers even after Spain’s borrowing costs fell at a 4.8 billion-euro auction of three- and 10-year debt, the biggest since January. The sale came amid expectations the nation will ask the European Central Bank to buy its debt.

A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in euro-area services and manufacturing industries dropped to 45.9 for September, the lowest since June 2009, London-based Markit Economics said in an initial estimate. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Australia’s currency fell as the Chinese data clouded the prospects for the South Pacific nation’s resource exports.

17:23

European stocks close:

European stocks declined for the third time in four days after a report signaled that Chinese manufacturing will contract for an 11th month, adding to concern the global economic slowdown is deepening.

China’s manufacturing industry will contract in September, according to the preliminary reading of a purchasing managers’ index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. The result of 47.8 compared with a final 47.6 last month. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

A composite index for services and manufacturing activity in the euro area fell in September more than economists had projected. The PMI slipped to 45.9, its lowest since June 2009, from 46.3 last month.

National benchmark indexes declined in 12 of the 18 western-European markets. Germany’s DAX slid less than 0.1 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40 each dropped 0.6 percent.

BHP Billiton Ltd. and Anglo American Plc declined 2.3 percent to 1,954.5 pence and 4.4 percent to 1,944 pence, respectively, contributing the most to a retreat by a gauge of mining companies following the Chinese manufacturing report.

Vedanta Resources Plc, India’s largest copper producer, fell 2.4 percent to 1,054 pence. Evraz Plc, the mining company and steelmaker partly owned by billionaire Roman Abramovich, slumped 6 percent to 260.8 pence.

Daimler retreated 2 percent to 39.23 euros as the world’s third-largest luxury vehicle maker said earnings from its car division will drop in the second half of 2012. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the biggest manufacturer of luxury cars, lost 2.9 percent to 59.44 euros.

16:01

European stocks closed in minus: FTSE 100 5,854.64 -33.84 -0.57%, CAC 40 3,509.92 -21.90 -0.62%, DAX 7,389.49 -1.27 -0.02%

15:45

Oil traded near a six-week low

Oil traded near a six-week low after U.S. stockpiles climbed the most since March, Chinese manufacturing shrank and Japanese exports fell, signaling fuel demand may be slowing among the world’s biggest crude users.

Futures were little changed after declining as much as 1.4 percent. U.S. oil inventories surged 8.5 million barrels last week as Gulf of Mexico production resumed after Hurricane Isaac, Energy Department data showed yesterday. China’s manufacturing may contract an 11th month, according to a purchasing managers index by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. Japan’s overseas sales fell a third month in August, the Finance Ministry said.

Oil for October delivery slid as much as $1.32 to $90.66 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since Aug. 6.

Brent oil for November settlement rose 51 cents to $108.72 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The front-month European benchmark grade’s premium to the corresponding West Texas Intermediate contract was at $16.68 a barrel. It narrowed to as little as $15.58, the lowest on an intraday basis since July 26.

15:24

Gold drops

Gold prices decline with the maximum reached on the eve of 6.5 months, as a stronger dollar and a decline in the stock markets and oil prompted investors to take profits.

The dollar rose after the release of a number of weak production reports in Europe and China, which are renewed concerns about global growth.

According to HSBC, a preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing of China in September rose slightly by 0.2 points to 47.8, and this sector was the eleventh consecutive month of decline. This is a sign that the second-largest economy in the world slows down.

Meanwhile, the euro fell to its lowest level in a week after the release of weaker-than-expected manufacturing data in the eurozone. The preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing eurozone in September rose by 0.9 points to 46.0. However, the index remained below the key level 50, separating the increased activity of its decline.

The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. in the week 9-15 September fell to 382,000 against 385,000 the previous week, and the data for the week September 2-8 were revised upward. However, this figure was lower than the forecast of economists.

Stocks of gold-ETFs on Wednesday declined to 607.000 ounces to a record high.

October futures price of gold on the COMEX is now 1763.4 dollars per ounce.

14:00

U.S.: Leading Indicators , August -0.1% (forecast -0.1%)

14:00

Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, September -26 (forecast -24.0)

14:00

U.S.: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, September -1.9 (forecast -4.1)

13:45

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.2965, $1.2935, $1.2900, $1.2850

USD/JPY Y78.45, Y78.00, Y77.75

EUR/JPY Y100.70

GBP/USD $1.6200

EUR/GBP stg0.8030-35

USD/CHF Chf0.9500

AUD/USD $1.0415, $1.0445, $1.0475, $1.0500

13:32

US Stocks open: Dow 13,551.32 -26.64 -0.20%, Nasdaq 3,167.22 -15.40 -0.48%, S&P 1,454.27 -6.78 -0.46%

13:30

FTSE 100 5,842.72 -45.76 -0.78% CAC 40 3,498.64 -33.18 -0.94% DAX 7,350.26 -40.50 -0.55%

13:27

Before the bell: S&P futures -0.41%, Nasdaq futures -0.32%

U.S. stock-index futures fell as data from China to Japan and U.S. increased concern a global economic slowdown is worsening.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 9,086.98 -145.23 -1.57%
Hang Seng 20,590.92 -250.99 -1.20%
Shanghai Composite 2,024.84 -42.99 -2.08%
FTSE 5,845.27 -43.21 -0.73%
CAC 3,499.25 -32.57 -0.92%
DAX 7,350.31 -40.45 -0.55%
Crude oil $91.71 -0,29%
Gold $1767.70 -0.23%

13:00

U.S.: Manufacturing PMI, September 51.5 (forecast 51.5)

12:10

European session: the dollar rose sharply

Data
02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) September 47.6 47.8
04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m July +0.2% -0.5% -0.6%
05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report September
05:00 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks -
06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance August 2.92 1.17
06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) August 0.0% +0.4% +0.5%
06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) August +0.9% +1.5% +1.6%
07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) September 46.0 46.5 42.6
07:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) September 49.2 49.5 46.1
07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) September 44.7 45.4 47.3
07:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) September 48.3 48.6 50.6
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) September 45.1 45.4 46.0
08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) September 47.2 47.4 46.0
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) August +0.3% -0.4% -0.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) August +2.8% +2.9% +2.7%
10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance September -21 -14 -8

The euro fell against the dollar due to the fact that the index of business activity in the euro area services sector fell to a three-year low. The composite index of purchasing managers in the services and manufacturing sectors in the euro area fell to 45.9 in September, registering the lowest since June 2009
The single currency has continued its two-day decline against the yen, as data added to evidence that the debt crisis in the euro area undermines growth.
The yen and dollar strengthened against most major currencies after a report showed that the level of production in China continued to decline along with the decrease in the volume of Japanese exports, stimulating the demand for safe assets.
Euro weakened against all but three of its 16 major counterparts, despite the fact that Spain's borrowing costs fell after the auction.
The dollar index (DXY) rose for the third time in four days after data from China and Japan, which showed that the Asian economy is slowing. The index added 0.6% and reached 79.55.
The Australian dollar fell as Chinese data clouded the prospects of export growth for the South Pacific Ocean.
The Swiss franc fell against the dollar amid the release of the trade balance, which recorded a decline in August to the level of 1.17 billion Swiss francs.

EUR/USD: during the European session, the pair quickly dropped, setting all-time low of $ 1.2925, and then increased slightly and is now trading at $ 1.2950
GBP/USD: the pair decreased to $ 1.6160, but then rose to the floor pieces, and is now at a value of $ 1.6190
USD/JPY: pair fell sharply, by setting a minimum level of Y78.03, followed by a correction, in which the rate rose to Y78.20

At 12:30 GMT the United States, there are data on the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, the number of repeat applications for unemployment benefits and an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in September. At 14:00 GMT Eurozone release Eurozone consumer confidence indicator for September. At the same time, the U.S. will release the manufacturing index, the Philadelphia Fed in September. At 16:00 GMT the euro area will be speech by ECB President Mario Draghi.

11:45

Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3060, $1.3020/30

Bids $1.2930, $1.2900, $1.2855/50

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6300, $1.6280, $1.6270/75, $1.6220, $1.6200/05

Bids $1.6150/40, $1.6120, $1.6085/80, $1.6060/50

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0570/80, $1.0540/50, $1.0520, $1.0490/5.00

Bids $1.0350/40, $1.0168

USD/JPY

Offers Y79.50, Y79.30

Bids Y78.00, Y77.95/90, Y77.65/60

EUR/JPY

Offers Y103.80/4.00,Y104.00

Bids Y101.00, Y100.80/60, Y100.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8150, stg0.8070/80, stg0.8020

Bids stg0.7970, stg0.7945/40

11:30

ECB Ker: ECB bond purchases will keep the "unity" of monetary policy

Bond purchases do not mitigate credit conditions, but make them uniform
The ECB will stop buying bonds in case of breach of
Bond purchases involve strict conditions
Bond purchases by the ECB are not quantitative easing, there is no risk to the balance
Bond purchases will not lead to inflation
ECB bond purchases remain an incentive for economic reform
We intend to stick to our mandate to protect price stability
Do fears about the collapse of the euro zone is "huge" destructive potential
ECB bond purchases - a means to combat concerns about the possibility of the collapse of the eurozone

10:15

European stocks down

Decline began trading Friday, the major stock indexes in Europe. N the course of trade influenced stat data published today.

Increase in the index of producer prices in Germany rose by 0.1% more than analysts had forecast. Well above forecasts were data on activity in the manufacturing and service sectors of Germany and the eurozone.

The market is waiting for data from the labor market, and the U.S. Manufacturing PMI,

As a speech today will be a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed and Pyanalto D. Lockhart, and ECB President Mario Draghi.

To date:

FTSE 100 5,850.34 -38.14 -0.65%

CAC 40 3,499.26 -32.56 -0.92%

DAX 7,347.84 -42.92 -0.58%

Pirelli & Cie shares lost 1.8% due to the fact that analysts at Citigroup Inc downgraded shares.

10:00

United Kingdom: CBI industrial order books balance, September -8 (forecast -14)

09:30

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.2965, $1.2935, $1.2900, $1.2850

USD/JPY Y78.45, Y78.00, Y77.75

EUR/JPY Y100.70

GBP/USD $1.6200

EUR/GBP stg0.8030-35

USD/CHF Chf0.9500

AUD/USD $1.0415, $1.0445, $1.0475, $1.0500

09:16

Asia Pacific stocks close:

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark retreating from its highest close since May, after Japan’s exports fell a third month and on signs China’s manufacturing may contract an 11th month, adding to concern the global economic slowdown is deepening.

Nikkei 225 9,086.98 -145.23 -1.57%

S&P/ASX 200 4,397.2 -21.16 -0.48%

Shanghai Composite 2,026.45 -41.38 -2.00%

Kyocera Corp., a maker of electronic parts that gets more than half of its sales outside Japan, slid 2.9 percent.

Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. surged 7.1 percent after Japan’s leading fixed-line phone company said it plans to buy back as much as 3.4 percent of its shares.

Billabong International Ltd. slumped 6.9 percent as a second bidder withdrew from the sale of Australia’s largest surfwear company.

09:03

FTSE 100 5,852.19 -36.29 -0.62%, CAC 40 3,519.67 -12.15 -0.34%, DAX 7,371.19 -19.57 -0.26%

08:30

United Kingdom: Retail Sales (YoY) , August +2.7% (forecast +2.9%)

08:30

United Kingdom: Retail Sales (MoM), August -0.2% (forecast -0.4%)

08:21

Asian session: The euro fell

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) September 47.6 47.8

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m July +0.2% -0.5% -0.6%

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report September

05:00 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks

The euro fell against the dollar and yen before data today forecast to show European services and manufacturing contracted, adding to evidence that the region’s debt crisis is sapping growth. A euro-zone composite index for services and manufacturing industries was probably at 46.6 in September, from 46.3 the prior month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before London-based Markit Economics releases the figure today. Readings below 50 signal contraction.

Spain, the fourth-largest economy in the currency bloc, will auction 3- and 10-year notes today. The nation’s benchmark 10-year yield has fallen to 5.7 percent from the euro-era record of 7.75 percent on July 25 since the European Central Bank unveiled an unlimited bond-purchase program on Sept. 6 aimed at lowering government borrowing costs.

Japan’s currency gained versus all of its 16 major peers amid speculation unexpected expansion of monetary stimulus by the Bank of Japan will do little to spur economic growth as a territorial dispute with China and weak global demand cloud the outlook for shipments.

Australia’s dollar sank after a private survey showed China’s manufacturing may shrink for an 11th month, dimming prospects for the South Pacific nation’s exports. In China, a preliminary reading today showed a gauge by Markit and HSBC Holdings Plc for manufacturing was 47.8 this month from 47.6 in August. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and New Zealand’s second-biggest export destination.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to the previous day's low.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below $1.6200.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair continued yesterday's fall, updating week's low.

A heavy data calendar Thursday, as the Eurozone flash PMI data are released. Ahead of the PMI, at 0600GMT, the German Germany August PPI numbers are released. As noted, today sees the release of flash manufacturing and services PMI data out of Germany and France, the Eurozone's first and second largest economies. The French France August flash numbers are released at 0658GMT, with German data at 0728GMT and EMU flash numbers at 0758GMT. There is a raft of UK data expected at 0830GMT, starting with August Retail Sales and including August CML Gross Mortgage Lending and the August SMMT Auto Production figures. At 1000GMT, the UK September CBI Monthly Industrial Trends data is released. The US calendar starts at 1145GMT, when Boston Federal Reserve Bank Pres. The first US data release is at 1230GMT, when Jobless Claims data for the Sept 15 week are released. At the same time, the August Leading Indicator is released and is forecast to fall 0.1%. At 1430GMT, the EIA Natural Gas Storage numbers for the Sept 14 week are released. The last scheduled US data is expected at 2030GMT, when the Money Supply (M2) numbers to Sept 10 are due.

07:58

Eurozone: Services PMI, September 46.0 (forecast 47.4)

07:58

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI, September 46.0 (forecast 45.4)

07:41

Forex: Wednesday’s review

Yesterday the yen erased losses after reaching a four-week low versus the dollar as investors speculated the Bank of Japan unexpected monetary stimulus expansion will do little to augment economic growth.

The yen strengthened against almost all of its 16 most- traded counterparts even after policy makers added 10 trillion yen ($127 billion) in stimulus, following measures by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank this month.

Earlier, the yen fell to four-week low against the dollar after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly announced the expansion of the program of monetary stimulus to support growth and reduce the value of the currency. The yen weakened against most of its 16 major counterparts after the central bank said it will increase the amount of asset purchase program, which is the main tool of monetary easing in the conditions close to zero interest rates, up to 80 trillion yen from 70 trillion yen and to extend its action for six months, until the end of 2013.

The euro rose against the dollar amid rising stock markets after existing home sales in the U.S. rose the most in a year. Thus, sales in the secondary market amounted to 4.82 million in August, is expected to 4.55 million Also today, the ECB held an auction to provide dollar liquidity to the tune of 3.72 billion dollars at 0.64% for 7 days. Data on the volume of construction in the euro zone at an annual rate in July showed a decline of -4.7%.

07:29

Germany: Services PMI, September 50.6 (forecast 48.6)

07:28

Germany: Manufacturing PMI, September 47.3 (forecast 45.4)

07:21

Stocks: Wednesday’s review

Asian stocks rose, with a regional benchmark index poised to close at the highest level since May, as the Bank of Japan boosted asset purchases, joining moves by the Federal Reserve last week to stimulate economic growth.

Nikkei 225 9,232.21 +108.44 +1.19%

S&P/ASX 200 4,418.4 +23.67 +0.54%

Shanghai Composite 2,060.13 +0.59 +0.03%

JFE Holdings Inc., Japan’s second-biggest steelmaker, climbed 2.1 percent after the BOJ moved to prevent a rising yen from undermining an economic recovery.

Nissan Motor Co. advanced 3.7 percent, recovering some of yesterday’s losses, as the carmaker resumed production in China after violent protests targeting Japanese companies in a dispute over control of a group of islands.

Japan Airlines Co. rose 1.1 percent on its first day of trading following the largest initial public offering since Facebook Inc.

European stocks climbed, halting a two-day decline, after the Bank of Japan joined the Federal Reserve in opting for further asset purchases to support the economy and housing starts climbed in the U.S.
European stocks climbed after Japan’s central bank unexpectedly expanded its asset-purchase target by 10 trillion yen ($128 billion) as it seeks to avoid a contraction in the world’s third-largest economy.
National benchmark indexes advanced in 14 of the 18 western-European markets. Germany’s DAX added 0.6 percent, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.5 percent, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.4 percent.
Porsche jumped 7.2 percent to 46.30 euros after the Braunschweig Regional Court dismissed the lawsuits. Porsche has faced multiple legal challenges since it disclosed on Oct. 26, 2008 that it controlled 74.1 percent of VW, partly through options, and was seeking to take over the company.
Inditex rose 3.7 percent to 95.31 euros after the owner of the Zara and Massimo Dutti chains reported a 32 percent jump in first-half net income to 944 million euros ($1.23 billion). The average estimate of 13 analysts compiled by Bloomberg had called for profit of 893.5 million euros. Sales for the six months through July gained 17 percent.

Major U.S. stock indexes rose, supported by data on the U.S. housing market and the Bank of Japan's decision to expand the asset repurchase program.
Published reports have shown that up to August the number of housing starts rose by 2.3% to 750,000 annualized. This was less than the average market forecast at 765,000, but the data on building permits were higher than projected at 803,000 annualized versus expectations of 795,000.
It should be noted that the volume of housing starts increased significantly compared to the level of the beginning of 2009 (575, 000), but are still very far from the values of 2003-2007, which were in the region 2 million
Report on sales in the secondary market recorded sales growth to the level of 4.82 million units compared with an expected 4.58 million
Market participants have responded positively to the decision by the Bank of Japan meeting which ended today. The Japanese central bank left the main interest rate unchanged in the range 0.00% -0.10% while it was decided to expand the program of buying assets. The program of buying assets and loans has been increased by 10 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen. These funds are used to buy government bonds and treasury bills at a discount. Duration of the program extended to December 2013.
As a part of most of the components of the index DOW showed a positive trend. Leaders are stocks Walt Disney Co. (DIS, +1.77%). Most net trading Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ, -0,89%).
All of the major economic sectors are in positive territory, with the exception of the commodity sector (-0.2%). More than other service sector grew (+0.8%).
Manufacturer of glass for flat-screen televisions Corning advanced 2.4% after analysts at Goldman Sachs recommended buying its shares.
Agricultural biotechnology Monsanto rose by 2.5% on news of its inclusion in the list of shares to "buy with prejudice" of the same analysts Goldman Sachs.
Pharmaceutical company Questcor Pharmaceutical fell 45% on news that the third-largest health insurer Aetna canceled coverage costs only drug of Acthar for most indications, except for one.