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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 17-09-2012
The euro rose against the dollar to a maximum of the beginning of May, after the September manufacturing activity in the area of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York dropped more than expected by a decline in orders. General economic index of the New York Fed declined to -10.41 versus -5.85 in August, reaching the lowest level since April 2009 values. Economists had expected a drop to -2. Factories slow conveyors weakened exports, limited business investment and lower household spending. Unemployment rate is more than 8% over three years, and the weakening of the economy this year to explain what the Fed policymakers who decided to additional stimulus during a recent meeting.
Earlier, the euro weakened against the yen and the U.S. dollar for the first time in five days amid unrest in Spain, and after the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said that Spain may need financial assistance. As market participants expect the meeting, the Prime Minister of Spain with the Prime Minister of Italy, Mario Monti, to be held in Rome on 21 September. The next day, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will hold talks with French President François Hollande. The single currency fell against most of its 16 major counterparts after European leaders last week in Cyprus to discuss the terms of salvation and the role of the European Central Bank. Euro also declined following the demonstrations in Madrid, which took place two days and were directed against the additional austerity measures.
The dollar rose against the yen on expectations of intervention by the Japanese authorities.
British pound updated four month high against the dollar on optimism about the third round of quantitative easing from the Fed.
European stocks declined from a 15- month high as concern of a deepening economic slowdown in China overshadowed optimism resulting from the Federal Reserve’s third round of quantitative easing.
Citigroup Inc. cut its forecast for China’s 2013 growth to 7.6 percent from 8 percent on weakening external demand. Separately, the official Xinhua News Agency said China needs to be more cautious with its monetary policies as quantitative easing in the U.S. will create more pressure to control inflation.
National benchmark indexes fell in all of the 18 western European markets, except Belgium. Germany’s DAX slipped 0.1 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 (UKX) declined 0.4 percent, while France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.8 percent.
SSAB (SSABA) tumbled 6.9 percent to 53.05 kronor, the biggest decline since February. The steelmaker said demand for strip products has been much weaker than expected in the third quarter and warned that falling iron ore prices are expected to hurt earnings in the first quarter of next year.
H&M (HMB) declined 1.6 percent to 243.20 kronor as Europe’s second-largest clothing retailer reported third-quarter sales that missed analysts’ estimates after an August heatwave in some parts of the region hurt business. Revenue excluding value-added tax rose to 28.8 billion kronor ($4.4 billion) through Aug. 31, the Stockholm-based company said, missing the 29.8 billion-kronor average estimate of 19 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales at stores open at least a year declined 4 percent in August.
Oil gained for a third day on concern that tension in the Middle East will disrupt supplies and as the euro rose to a four-month high against the dollar.
Oil climbed as much as 0.4 percent as the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon said it received reports indicating a greater possibility of attacks against U.S. citizens. The dollar fell against the euro, increasing oil’s appeal as an investment alternative. Crude rose 2.7 percent last week as the Fed pledged to start a third round of quantitative easing.
Oil for October delivery traded in the range of $98,56 - $99,52 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose to $99 on Sept. 14, the highest settlement since May 3. Prices are up 0.5 percent this year.
Brent for November settlement fell 35 cents to $116.31 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Gold prices are close to the maximum of seven months due to the promise of the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low.
Last week, the Fed said that he was going to keep interest rates near zero until mid-2015, causing gold prices rose by 2 percent in one day.
The price of gold has doubled in the past four years, the Fed has spent almost $ 3 trillion to buy bonds. Since the beginning of 2012 gold price increased by 13.2 percent.
Stocks of gold-ETF funds in the last month rose by more than 3 million ounces to a record 73.58 million ounces.
October futures price of gold on COMEX today kept in the range of 1765.0 - 1776.1 per ounce.
EUR/USD $1.3120, $1.3110, $1.3050, $1.3000, $1.2950
USD/JPY Y77.50, Y77.65, Y78.00, Y78.65, Y79.00
AUD/USD $1.0550, $1.0600, $1.0650U.S. stock-index futures slightly fell after a report showed manufacturing in the New York area shrank more than forecast
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index dropped to -10.41 from -5.85 in August. The median forecast called for -1.9.
Global Stocks:
Hang Seng 20,658.11 +28.33 +0.14%Shanghai Composite 2,078.5 -45.35 -2.14%
FTSE 5,900.1 -15.45 -0.26%
CAC 3,563.06 -18.52 -0.52%
DAX 7,396.96 -15.17 -0.20%
Crude oil $99.09 +0,09%
Gold $1771.90 -0.05%
Data
01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) August -0.8% +3.6%
01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) August +5.0% +6.4%
08:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln July 12.7 10.9 9.7
09:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. July 10.5 12.3 7.9
Euro weakened against the yen and the dollar for the first time in five days amid unrest in Spain, and after the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said that Spain may need financial assistance. As market participants expect the meeting, the Prime Minister of Spain with the Prime Minister of Italy, Mario Monti, to be held in Rome on 21 September. The next day, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will hold talks with French President François Hollande.
The single currency fell against most of its 16 major counterparts after European leaders last week in Cyprus to discuss the terms of salvation and the role of the European Central Bank. Euro also declined following the demonstrations in Madrid, which took place two days and were directed against the additional austerity measures.
The Australian dollar fell to a six-month maximums against the dollar amid falling demand for higher-yielding assets. As the currency of Australia and New Zealand fell against the yen amid escalating tensions between Japan and China over disputed islands.
The dollar index rose 0.1% to 78.947, after falling last week to the lowest level since February.
EUR/USD: during the European session, the pair is trading slightly lower
GBP/USD: The pair is consolidated in a narrow trading range
USD/JPY: the pair is trading with an increase and have already updated the Friday's high
At 12:30 GMT, Canada will release information on the volume of transactions with foreign securities in July. At the same time, the U.S. manufacturing index will be released Empire Manufacturing for September.
A third round of quantitative easing, the Fed - a "positive step"
Outside the eurozone Greece would face greater challenges
Purchase of bonds - an important tool of monetary policy
The new ECB bond purchase program has supported
I do not see a threat of deflation
Inflation expectations remain subdued
The expected fall in inflation below 2%
The most recent forecasts, the ECB on economic growth could be too pessimistic
In the future, we can reflect on the negative interest rate on deposits
Negative deposit rate is not on the main lines of the agenda at the moment
It is difficult to predict when the economic situation will unfold
We have to be on the fence in regard to the further lowering of the rates
Impact of further lowering of interest rates is "very limited"
Key interest rate is still adequate to the situation
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3250, $1.3220, $1.3200, $1.3180, $1.3150/75
Bids $1.3090/80, $1.3025/20, $1.3000
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6330/35, $1.6300, $1.6280/85, $1.6255
Bids $1.6200, $1.6180/70, $1.6150/40, $1.6120, $1.6085/80
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0670, $1.0625, $1.0585/90
Bids $1.0510/00, $1.0470, $1.0430/20, $1.0405/00
EUR/JPY
Offers Y103.80/4.00, Y103.50/60, Y103.00/20
Bids Y102.50, Y100.80/60
USD/JPY
Offers Y78.50/70, Y78.498
Bids Y78.00/7.90, Y77.30
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8200, stg0.8180, stg0.8150
Bids stg0.8060/50, stg0.8010/00, stg0.7970, stg0.7945/40
Monday trading started in European indices decline after reaching 15-month high against the announcement of the beginning of the third round of quantitative easing.
The head of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Yunkes European Stabilization Fund will be launched in October 2012. Planned to give the first three tranches of a total size of 32 billion euros.
The data on the trade balance evroozony seasonally adjusted for July was 7.9 at the forecast 12.3.
FTSE 100 5,900.77 -14.78 -0.25%
CAC 40 3,561.25 -20.33 -0.57%
DAX 7,395.78 -16.35 -0.22%
SSAB shares fell 8.5% after a decline in demand for the products. Paper Hennes & Mauritz AB decreased by 2.2% after the level of sales was lower than forecast. Vodafone capitalization decreased by 1.1% after the announcement of the creation of a reserve fund for the payment of taxes in India.
Eurozone needs a more coordinated policy
Not looking for a grand coalition after the elections of 2013
We can not exclude the formation of the grand coalition after the elections of 2013
I refuse to comment on the criticism of the ECB's Weidmann
ECB's independence is important to us
Fiscal policy in Germany is also aimed at increasing domestic demand
Policies are needed savings and stimulate growth, which would increase the confidence, economic growth
Eurozone clearly should make it clear that the learned from the crisis
Aspire to again was elected center-right coalition with the FDP
Germany can not take steps that would reduce its competitiveness
EUR/USD $1.3120, $1.3110, $1.3050, $1.3000, $1.2950
USD/JPY Y77.50, Y77.65, Y78.00, Y78.65, Y79.00
AUD/USD $1.0550, $1.0600, $1.0650
01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) August -0.8% +3.6%
01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) August +5.0% +6.4%
The yen rose against most of its major peers before the Bank of Japan starts a two-day meeting tomorrow as investors weighed whether it will follow the Federal Reserve in expanding monetary easing. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Sept. 6 that the yen’s appreciation causes a decline in Japan’s exports and that its negative effect is “dominant.” The U.S. central bank on Sept. 13 decided to expand its balance sheet with open-ended purchases of $40 billion a month of mortgage debt to bolster the labor market, following two rounds of a $2.3 trillion quantitative-easing program from 2008 to 2011.
The euro snapped a four-day advance versus the yen before a German report tomorrow that may show investor confidence remains weak in the region’s biggest economy. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research is forecast to say its German index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, was minus 20 in September, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The gauge slid to minus 25.5 last month, the lowest this year.
The Australian dollar weakened against 13 of its 16 most- traded counterparts. Demonstrators took to the streets in a dozen cities across China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, calling for Chinese sovereignty over islands that are also claimed by Japan.
Tensions escalated after Japan said last week it would purchase the territory from a private Japanese owner, prompting China to dispatch government vessels near the islands known as Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese. Japan’s foreign ministry said yesterday that Shinichi Nishimiya died of an unspecified illness, five days after his appointment as an ambassador to China.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.3100-40.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6210-30.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y78.15-45.
Scheduled data for Monday starts at 0800GMT, with the release of the ECB Jul current account data. Further eurozone data is expected at 0900GMT, with the release of the EMU July trade data and Q3 labour costs lso at 0900GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel holds a press conference, with the eurozone debt crisis expected to be a major topic of discussion. US data gets underway at 1230GMT, with the release of the September NY Fed Empire State Survey.
On Friday the dollar fell to a four-month low against the euro after the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said to hold a third round of quantitative easing, which is aimed at reducing the cost of the U.S. currency.
The U.S. currency may show the largest weekly decline against the euro since October 2010, amid a new round of monetary stimulus.
The yen fell against all 16 most-traded currencies, after Finance Minister Jun Azumi said he was prepared to intervene in the market to weaken the currency.
The euro is growing a fourth day against the dollar as the background of the fact that Europe's finance ministers and central bankers gathered in Cyprus for a two-day meeting to discuss the next steps in solving the region's debt crisis.
Also, Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for the euro at the end of the year to $ 1.34 from $ 1.19, while Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) increased its three-month forecast to $ 1.23 from $ 1.17. According to the median forecast, the single currency will end the year at $ 1.23.
The Swiss franc continued its three-day decline in a row against the euro. Value of the options, which give the right to buy the single currency against the yen, higher selling prices rose for the first time since April 4. The Swiss National Bank also announced that it would continue to support the franc at 1.2 to the euro.
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for the longest winning streak since January 2011, after the Federal Reserve said it will buy mortgage-backed securities to bolster economic growth.
Nikkei 225 9,159.39 +164.24 +1.83%
S&P/ASX 200 4,390 +50.58 +1.17%
Shanghai Composite 2,129.14 +18.76 +0.89%
Techtronic Industries Co., a maker of Ryobi power tools that gets 72 percent of its sales in North America, gained 6.5 percent in Hong Kong.
Zhaojin Mining Industry Co., which gets 89 percent of its revenue from gold mining, surged 14 percent in Hong Kong after the price of the precious metal climbed to a six-month high.
Daewoo Securities Co. paced gains among financial firms, jumping 15 percent in Seoul.
European stocks advanced to their highest level in 14 months after the Federal Reserve said it will buy mortgage-backed securities to encourage economic growth in the world’s largest economy.
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and Rio Tinto Group jumped 5.8 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, as Australia’s Treasurer said the country’s resource boom will continue. Lonmin Plc (LMI) rose 4.8 percent as it resumed talks with striking miners at its platinum mine in South Africa.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 1.1 percent to 275.51 at 4:30 p.m. in London, its highest level since July 7, 2011.
The Fed said it will increase its holdings of long-term securities with open-ended purchases of $40 billion of mortgage debt a month. The central bank will continue to buy mortgage- backed securities until the outlook for the labor market substantially improves, the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday in a statement at the end of its two-day meeting in Washington.
The FOMC also said it will probably hold the federal funds rate near zero until at least the middle of 2015. The Fed had said the rate would stay low through late 2014. Fed officials said economic growth will improve faster than they had projected, as they upgraded their estimates for gross domestic product growth in 2013 and 2014.
Euro-area finance ministers and central-bank officials hold a two-day meeting starting today in Cyprus to discuss plans for a banking union in the 17-nation currency zone.
European stocks extended their gains after the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan gauge of consumer confidence unexpectedly climbed. The preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 79.2 in September from 74.3 in August. The median forecast of economists had called for a reading of 74.
National benchmark indexes rose in all 18 western-European markets.
FTSE 100 5,898.55 +78.63 +1.35% CAC 40 3,570.64 +68.55 +1.96% DAX 7,401.59 +91.27 +1.25%
Petropavlovsk Plc, a miner of gold in Russia, jumped 14 percent to 431.9 pence. Antofagasta Plc, which owns copper mines in Chile, rose 7 percent to 1,323 pence, its biggest rally in eight months, as metal prices jumped in London.
Nyrstar (NYR) NV, the largest producer of refined zinc, gained 10 percent to 5.28 euros. Evraz Plc (EVR), the mining company and steelmaker partly owned by billionaire Roman Abramovich, soared 13 percent to 293.2 pence. Vedanta Resources Plc (VED) surged 13 percent to 1,090 pence.
Chemring Group Plc advanced 5.3 percent to 344.9 pence. The company said that the U.K.’s Takeover Panel has extended a deadline for Carlyle Group LP to make a bid until Oct. 12.
Lonmin Plc rose 4.8 percent to 613.5 pence. The third- largest platinum producer by volume resumed talks in South Africa today to end an illegal strike that has spread to nearby mines that tap the world’s richest reserves of the metal.
The preferred shares of Volkswagen AG (VOW) added 4.9 percent to 152.50 euros. Europe’s largest carmaker said sales in August rose 19 percent to 719,500 vehicles.
Major U.S. stock indexes ended the growth of the fourth consecutive session. For the week DOW index added 2,16%, Nasdaq rose by 1,52%, S & P500 rose 1.94%.
Indexes rose against yesterday's decision of the Committee on the Federal Open Market. Today's growth is moderate compared to yesterday due to the reluctance of market participants to take long positions in anticipation of the weekend.
Growth indices also restrict speculation about the high probability that a new round of QE will not have such a strong positive impact on the stock market as the previous ones, because these actions by the Federal Reserve was widely expected and it was included in the price. It is worth noting that, despite the Fed's statement on the "unlimited" dates for the new round of QE, it is much less than previous programs (for the year under QE3 will spend $ 0.48 trillion from $ 1.7 trillion. Under QE1 and $ 0.6 trillion . as part of QE2).
Statistics released today was mixed, its impact on the dynamics of trade is negligible.
Thus, industrial production in August fell by 1.2% against the expected growth of 0.2% in this case, increased inventories (+0.8% in July vs. +0.3%).
Consumer sentiment index from Reuters / Michigan (preliminary data) in September rose to 79.2 against 74.3 in August and 74.1 forecast.
The inflation data were mixed: the total value of the consumer price index was below forecasts, basic - above.
As a part of most of the components of the index DOW surged. In the red are 14 components, of which the shares have fallen more than other AT & T, Inc (T, -2.78%). More than others in the share price rose Caterpillar (CAT, +2.46%).
Most of the major economic sectors are growing. The leader is the sector conglomerates (2.1%). In the red are only sector utilities (-0.7%) and the health sector (-0.5%).
At the close:
Dow 13,593.37 +53.51 +0.40%
Nasdaq 3,183.95 +28.12 +0.89%
S & P 500 1,465.76 +5.77 +0.40%
01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) August -0.8% +3.6%
01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) August +5.0% +6.4%
08:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln July 12.7 10.9
09:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. July 10.5 12.3
12:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index September -5.85 -1.9
12:30 Canada Foreign investment in Canadian securities July -7.89 11.3
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