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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 12-09-2012
The euro rose against the dollar to its highest level in four months, after a German court allowed ratify the ESM, increasing the demand for the single currency.
Euro continued its two-day rise against the yen, after the Constitutional Court of Germany has introduced certain conditions. It ruled that the German contribution to the ESM should not exceed 190 billion euros, and more - with the consent of the Bundestag lower house.
The dollar fell against most of its 16 major counterparts as the focus of traders focused on the outcome of the two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which will be announced tomorrow.
The Australian dollar rose to a three-week high against the dollar on speculation that the Fed may announce the stimulus and after Premier Wen Jiabao said that China will resort to economic stimulus.
The British pound fell against the dollar after a report showed that the unemployment rate in the UK rose unexpectedly in July to a level of 8.1% from 8.0% in June.
The dollar index (DXY), which is used to track the value of the dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.2 percent to 79.722.European stocks advanced to a 14- month high after Germany’s top constitutional court cleared the way for the ratification of the euro area’s permanent bailout fund.
BAE Systems jumped the most in nine years after the company began talks with European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co., for a possible combination. Barratt Developments Plc (BDEV) lost 6.6 percent after the housebuilder said it won’t pay an annual dividend.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) rose 0.1 percent to 272.91 at 4:30 p.m. in London, the highest close since July 8 last year.
The Stoxx 600 climbed in late afternoon trading yesterday as speculation grew that the U.S. Federal Reserve will boost stimulus. The gauge last week surged the most since June as European Central Bank policy makers agreed to an unlimited bond- buying plan to help lower borrowing costs in the region.
The Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe today dismissed motions filed by groups including an opposition political party that sought to halt German ratification of the 500 billion-euro ($640 billion) fund, known as the European Stability Mechanism, and a deficit-control treaty championed by Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The court stipulated that Germany set a cap of about 190 billion euros on its liabilities before ratifying the ESM, unless parliament decides to back extra funds.
BAE jumped 10.6 percent to 363.6 pence, the biggest increase since January 2003. The talks with EADS are at an advanced stage and the two companies are exploring a transaction that would allow London-based BAE to maintain its independence to sell into the U.S. defense market, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.
Commerzbank, Germany’s second-largest lender, rallied 7.2 percent to 1.58 euros as a gauge of European banks added 1.3 percent, the biggest advance among the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600. France’s Natixis (KN) SA jumped 6.4 percent to 2.65 euros, while Credit Agricole SA (ACA) advanced 6 percent to 5.90 euros.
ING, the largest Dutch financial-services firm, rose 1.9 percent to 6.79 euros. AXA SA (CS) climbed 2 percent to 12.78 euros and Allianz SE (ALV), Europe’s largest insurer, added 1.2 percent to 95.05 euros.
Investors also awaited the outcome of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting tomorrow amid expectations that the central bank will announce a third round of so-called quantitative easing to help support growth, according to almost two-thirds of economists in a Bloomberg survey.
National benchmark indexes rose in 14 of the 18 western European markets.
FTSE 100 5,782.08 -10.11 -0.17% CAC 40 3,543.79 +6.49 +0.18% DAX 7,343.53 +33.42 +0.46%
Vestas (VWS) dropped 8.9 percent to 39.90 kroner, extending yesterday’s 6.1 percent decline. Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. downgraded the company to underperform, the equivalent of a sell rating, from market-perform.
Barratt Developments lost 6.6 percent to 158.5 pence after the U.K.’s largest housebuilder by volume refrained from paying a dividend. The company was expected to pay investors 0.7 pence a share. Barratt last paid a dividend in 2008.
The shares fell even after the company posted its first full-year profit since 2008 of 67.4 million pounds ($109 million) compared with a loss of 13.8 million pounds a year earlier. The shares have surged 71 percent so far this year.
Lonmin Plc (LMI) dropped 6.3 percent to 572.5 pence after the mining company’s workers refused to return to their jobs and begin wage talks. A strike entered its second month at Lonmin’s Marikana operation, which accounts for about 10 percent of global platinum production.
Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOB) declined 3.2 percent to 896 kroner as Natixis SA reduced its recommendation for the world’s largest insulin maker to neutral from buy.
Oil futures fell after a government report showed that inventories unexpectedly rose last week.
The Department of Energy said that inventories increased by 1.99 million barrels to 359.1 million level during the seven days that ended on September 7. Many analysts predicted that stocks fell by 2.9 million barrels.
Yesterday the American Petroleum Institute said yesterday that inventories rose by 221,000 barrels last week to the level of 359 million.
Futures also declined after the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that world stocks have become more stable. It also said that OPEC increased production by 45,000 barrels a day last month to 31.55 million, which is down 450,000 more than required per day in the quarter, and 950,000 a day more in the fourth quarter.
The agency also maintained annual forecasts for deliveries outside of the organization intact. Non-OPEC producers such as Brazil, Canada and Russia will maintain production at 700,000 barrels per day.
According to the agency, the reserves of the oil industry in the developed countries had fallen below their five-year average in July, to the level of 2.7 billion barrels, an increase of approximately one half of the normal amount for the month, which is about 58.3 days of consumption, which is 0.6 days more than a year ago.
October futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX is now $97,22 per barrel.
October futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix is now $115,91 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.
During the day, gold futures rose, updating the six-month high amid a weaker dollar, which fell after the German Constitutional Court has recognized a constitutional fund ESM. However, certain conditions are imposed. The German Constitutional Court ruled that the German contribution to the ESM should not exceed 190 billion euros, but if the sum is greater, you will need the consent of the Bundestag lower house. Prices rose to a high of $ 1,749.50 an ounce, after the High Court ruled that Germany could ratify the European Stability Mechanism.
The weakening dollar gold become more cheaper for traders who are willing to pay in another currency. As it became known today, the dollar index fell 0.2% to 69.573.
Also, the focus of traders focused on the outcome of the two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which will be announced tomorrow. The price of gold is increasing as many analysts expect the U.S. central bank may take further measures to stimulate the economy.
Also worth noting is that the gold mining sector has suffered from the strike in South Africa, which brings together 15,000 workers. But in light of the fact that South Africa is only the fifth-largest producer of gold, a strike is unlikely to affect the price of gold in the short term.
However, despite a substantial increase during the session, gold could not hold its positions and dropped.
September futures price of gold on the COMEX is now 1729.6 dollars per ounce.
EUR/USD $1.2850, $1.2800, $1.2715, $1.2700
USD/JPY Y78.00, Y79.00
EUR/JPY Y99.70
GBP/USD $1.5975, $1.5950
AUD/USD $1.0475, $1.0370
U.S. stock futures rose after Germany’s highest constitutional court allowed the country to ratify the euro area’s permanent bailout fund.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,959.96 +152.58 +1.73%
Hang Seng 20,075.39 +217.51 +1.10%
Shanghai Composite 2,126.55 +6.00 +0.28%
FTSE 5,791.93 -0.26 0.00%
CAC 3,551.38 +14.08 +0.40%
DAX 7,350.11 +40.00 +0.55%
Crude oil $97.11 -0,06%
Gold $1739.10 +0.24%
Data:
05:30 France CPI, m/m August -0.4% +0.5% +0.7%
05:30 France CPI, y/y August +1.9% +2.0% +2.4%
06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) August +2.0% +2.0% +2.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count August -5.9 0.1 -15
08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate August 4.9% 4.9% 4.8%
08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate July 8.0% 8.0% 8.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y July +1.6% +1.5% +1.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y July +1.8% +1.8% +1.9%
09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) July -0.6% 0.0% +0.6%
09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) July -2.1% -3.3% -2.3%
The euro rose above $ 1.29 for the first four months after the German Constitutional Court voted in favor of the legalization of ESM. Such a decision was a relief for the European authorities, as in the case of opposition they would have lost the ability to provide financial assistance to troubled EU countries for an indefinite period of time.
German Constitutional Court declared that the objections against the run ESM were unfounded, and approved the ratification of the ESM and the financial agreement between the EU under certain conditions. Importantly, to Germany's contribution to the Fund's reserves exceeded € 190 billion will need to get permission Bundestag. A German court has also demanded that both houses of the German Parliament are aware of how things are going on ESM.
The British pound rose against the dollar after the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in Britain as more than 2 years in August against the creation of new jobs, which is in spite of the looming recession. The unemployment rate fell by 15 thousand to 1.57 million, as shown by the official figures. Employment increased by 236 thousand to 29.6 million, the biggest increase in 2 years.
The Australian dollar rose to a three-week high against the U.S. dollar, after Premier Wen Jiabao zachvil that in 2012 the country was able to achieve planned target for GDP growth - 7.5%. China is the largest trading partner of Australia.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.2931 and retreated
GBP / USD: the pair grown, reaching a high of $ 1.6100 and retreated
USD / JPY: the pair is trading in the range of 77.73-77.98
At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will import prices for August, and 14:30 GMT - data on stocks of crude oil from the Department of Energy. At 17:00 GMT the U.S. puts 10-year bonds. At 21:00 GMT we will know the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate, will hold a press conference of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the accompanying statement will be made of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and published protocol of monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3000, $1.2980, $1.2950, $1.2930/35
Bids $1.2900/890, $1.2860, $1.2810/00, $1.2750
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6215/20, $1.6200, $1.6180/85, $1.6140-60
Bids $1.6075/65, $1.6045/35, $1.6000, $1.5960/50
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0600, $1.0580, $1.0540/50
Bids $1.0280
EUR/JPY
Offers Y100.85, Y100.60/70
Bids Y99.70, Y99.10/00, Y98.80
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.50, Y78.50, Y78.00-20
Bids Y77.65
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8080, stg0.8050
Bids stg0.7985, stg0.7945/40
Germany alloted E3.972bln of new 5-year benchmark 0.50% Oct 2017
Bobl issue at average yield of 0.61% (0.31%) and bid-to-cover ratio of 1.4 (2.6).
EUR/USD $1.2850, $1.2800, $1.2715, $1.2700
USD/JPY Y78.00, Y79.00
EUR/JPY Y99.70
GBP/USD $1.5975, $1.5950
AUD/USD $1.0475, $1.0370
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for the longest winning streak in two months, on speculation China and the U.S. will take more measures to spur growth in the world’s two biggest economies.
Nikkei 225 8,959.96 +152.58 +1.73%
S&P/ASX 200 4,361.3 +35.51 +0.82%
Shanghai Composite 2,120.3 -0.25 -0.01%
Electronics maker Samsung Electronics Co., which gets 48 percent of its revenue in China and the Americas, rose 3 percent in Seoul.
Fanuc Corp., the world’s biggest maker of industrial robots, gained 2.2 percent after Japan’s machinery orders beat estimates in July.
China Eastern Airlines Corp., the nation’s second-largest carrier by passengers, climbed 3.5 percent in Hong Kong after announcing plans to raise $570 million.
00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence September -2.5% +1.6%
The dollar dropped to a four-month low against the euro before the Federal Reserve starts a two-day policy meeting today amid speculation it will decide to buy bonds to boost the economy. The Fed bought $2.3 trillion of securities from 2008 to 2011 in two rounds of so-called quantitative easing. In an Aug. 31 speech, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said weak hiring and unemployment exceeding 8 percent posed a “grave concern” and that bond purchases are a policy option.
The U.S. currency weakened versus most of its 16 major counterparts following a decline yesterday after Moody’s Investors Service said the country’s Aaa rating may be cut if it doesn’t reduce its ratio of debt to gross domestic product. Moody’s, which placed a negative outlook on the U.S.’s Aaa grade in August 2011, said in a statement yesterday that the rating would probably be cut to Aa1 if no policy is passed to address a mounting debt to GDP ratio.
The euro was near a two-month high against the yen before Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court issues its ruling today on the country’s participation in Europe’s bailout fund. Germany is the only country that hasn’t ratified the European Stability Mechanism, a 500 billion-euro ($643 billion) fund that offers loans to euro-zone members and may buy their bonds to lower borrowing costs. If today’s court ruling means it can’t join, the mechanism won’t be created and other bailout measures might be thrown into doubt.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair continued yesterday's growth.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair hold about yesterday's high.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose, departing from the previous day's low.
European data starts early and includes August HICP data from France at 0530GMT, which is expected to come in at 0.8% m/m, 2.4% y/y as well as Germany at 0600GMT (preliminary was 0.3% m/m, 2.2% y/y) and also Spain at 0700GMT (2.7% y/y preliminary). The German Constitutional Court ruling on the ESM comes in the morning. US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index. US data continues at 1230GMT with the August Export/Import Price Index and then at 1400GMT with July Wholesale Inventories and 1430GMT with the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data.
Yesterday the dollar fell against 15 of its 16 most-traded currencies in anticipation of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting, which begins tomorrow, and one that is expected to be announced the purchase of bonds to stimulate the economy.
The U.S. currency fell to its lowest level in nearly four months against the euro after ratings agency Moody said it may downgrade the country's rating from Aaa to Aa1, if no measures are taken to reduce the level of U.S. debt.
The euro rose after after the German Constitutional Court has declared that it will not postpone the decision on the European Stability Mechanism, scheduled for Wednesday, denying rumors appeared on the market.
The dollar fell against the euro to its lowest level since May 14, and up to the lowest level since June 1 against the yen.
The single currency rose above its 200-day moving average at $ 1.2835 for the first time since Oct. 31.
The Canadian dollar continued to strengthen the four-day, rising to a 13-month high against its U.S. counterpart, amid optimism that a complex stimulus in the U.S. and Europe will lead to a reduction in volatility.
The New Zealand dollar rose after Fitch Ratings affirmed the country's rating at AA,
The British pound rose to the highest level in four months against the dollar after a report showed that the trade deficit in the UK declined in July, as exports rose, adding signs that the economy is emerging from recession.
The dollar index fell 0.7% to 79.834, after falling to 79.806, which is a minimum of 8 May.
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index poised for the first drop in four days, as concern grew Europe will fail to contain its debt crisis and as investors wait to see if the Federal Reserve will boost economic stimulus.
Nikkei 225 8,807.38 -61.99 -0.70%
S&P/ASX 200 4,325.8 -7.97 -0.18%
Shanghai Composite 2,120.55 -14.34 -0.67%
Cosco Pacific Ltd., which gets 31 percent of its sales in Europe, lost 0.6 percent in Hong Kong.
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. paced declines among automakers in Hong Kong after China’s car sales trailed analysts’ estimates in August for a second month.
Electronics maker Panasonic Corp. dropped 1.7 percent after Moody’s Investors Service cut its credit ratings.
European stocks climbed as Germany’s top constitutional court said it will proceed with a ruling on the country’s role in the euro-area bailout fund and speculation grew that the Federal Reserve will boost stimulus.
Fiat SpA (F) and Daimler AG (DAI) led a gauge of automakers higher. Burberry Group Plc plunged by a record after forecasting full- year profit will be at the lower end of analyst estimates. Rival luxury-goods companies Hugo Boss AG and Cie. Financiere Richemont SA retreated more than 5 percent.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) added 0.3 percent.
The Fed will give its latest policy statement on Sept. 13, following a two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting. On Aug. 31, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. central bank will provide further stimulus as needed to cement a recovery, citing his concern about the jobless rate.
Tomorrow, Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe will decide whether to halt the country’s participation in the 500 billion-euro ($640 billion) European Stability Mechanism, the euro area’s permanent bailout fund. A bid by German lawmaker Peter Gauweiler to get the hearing delayed after the ECB pledged unlimited funds to buy government debt failed today.
Parliamentary elections are due to be held in the Netherlands tomorrow, and euro-area finance ministers are meeting in Cyprus on Sept. 14.
National benchmark indexes rose in 15 of the 18 western European markets.
FTSE 100 5,790.46 -2.74 -0.05% CAC 40 3,537.08 +31.03 +0.89% DAX 7,311.42 +97.72 +1.35%
Billionaire investor George Soros said German-led austerity demands worsen the debt crisis and risk pushing Germany into a depression that’s already taking hold of the euro area’s rim.
A policy of fiscal retrenchment “is pushing Europe into a deeper and longer depression,” Soros said during a speech in Berlin yesterday. “The German public doesn’t yet feel it and doesn’t quite believe it, but it’s all too real in the periphery and it will reach Germany in the next six months or so. My message is that the looming depression is largely self-inflicted and the nightmare can be escaped.”
Fiat, Italy’s largest automaker, advanced 1.7 percent to 4.66 euros and Daimler gained 1.7 percent to 39.45 euros.
Burberry (BRBY) plummeted 21 percent to 1,082 pence, the largest decline since its initial public offering in July 2002. Britain’s biggest maker of luxury goods said adjusted pretax profit in the year through March will be at the lower end of analyst estimates, which range from 407 million pounds ($652 million) to 454 million pounds.
Hugo Boss sank 7.7 percent to 71.21 euros in Frankfurt and Richemont, the biggest maker of jewelry, lost 5.1 percent to 60.90 Swiss francs in Zurich. Christian Dior SA (CDI) and LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA (MC) dropped 4.7 percent to 111.75 euros and 3.4 percent to 127.70 euros, respectively.
Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS), the biggest maker of wind turbines, dropped 6.2 percent to 43.80 kroner. Credit Suisse Group AG said the company may undertake a one-for-one rights offer with a 50 percent discount to the current share price.
Enagas SA (ENG) sank 7 percent to 14.63 euros, the biggest drop since March, as investor Sagane Inversiones sold a 5 percent stake in the operator of Spain’s natural-gas grid. The shares were sold for 14.70 euros apiece, according to a filing.
Major U.S. stock indexes fell back on the achieved maximum session but still closed in positive territory.
Hopes are again supported markets. Indices rose amid speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting will come measures to stimulate the national economy.
Also lent support to the market reports from Europe. Today, the German Constitutional Court has declared that it will not postpone the decision on the European Stability Mechanism, scheduled for Wednesday, denying rumors appeared on the market. Recall that tomorrow we will know the decision of the Constitutional Court of Germany on the participation of the country in the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM).
As a part of most of the components of the index DOW surged. Shares rose more than other Bank of America Corporation (BAC, +4.66%). The greatest decrease in show shares Kraft Foods (KFT, -1.19%), and Home Depot (HD, -1.07%).
All of the major economic sectors, except one grow. Sector has grown more than other basic materials (+1.1%). Reduction shows only sector for utilities (-0.4%)
At the close:
Dow 13,325.18 +70.89 +0.53%
Nasdaq 3,105.97 +1.95 +0.06%
S & P 500 1,434.03 +4.95 +0.35%Change % Change Last
Oil $97.01 -0.16 -0.16%
Gold $1,734.70 -0.20 -0.01%Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,807.38 -61.99 -0.70%
S&P/ASX 200 4,325.8 -7.97 -0.18%
Shanghai Composite 2,120.55 -14.34 -0.67%
FTSE 100 5,790.46 -2.74 -0.05%
CAC 40 3,537.08 +31.03 +0.89%
DAX 7,311.42 +97.72 +1.35%
Dow 13,325.18 +70.89 +0.53%
Nasdaq 3,105.97 +1.95 +0.06%
S&P 500 1,434.03 +4.95 +0.35%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2851 +0,72%
GBP/USD $1,6067 +0,50%
USD/CHF Chf0,9390 -0,75%
USD/JPY Y77,79 -0,60%
EUR/JPY Y99,97 +0,10%
GBP/JPY Y124,98 -0,10%
AUD/USD $1,0428 +0,90%
NZD/USD $0,8172 +1,05%
USD/CAD C$0,9731 -0,43%
00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence September -2.5% +1.6%
05:30 France CPI, m/m August -0.4% +0.5%
05:30 France CPI, y/y August +1.9% +2.0%
06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) August +2.0% +2.0%
08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count August -5.9 0.1
08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate August 4.9% 4.9%
08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate July 8.0% 8.0%
08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y July +1.6% +1.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y July +1.8% +1.8%
09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) July -0.6% 0.0%
09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) July -2.1% -3.3%
12:30 U.S. Import Price Index August -0.6% +1.4%
14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories July -0.2% +0.3%
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - -7.4
21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision - 2.50% 2.50%
21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference -
21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement -
23:01 United Kingdom BOE Quarterly Bulletin Quarter III
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