CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 11-09-2012

The dollar fell against 15 of its 16 most-traded currencies in anticipation of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting, which begins tomorrow, and one that is expected to be announced the purchase of bonds to stimulate the economy.

The U.S. currency fell to its lowest level in nearly four months against the euro after ratings agency Moody said it may downgrade the country's rating from Aaa to Aa1, if no measures are taken to reduce the level of U.S. debt.

The euro rose after after the German Constitutional Court has declared that it will not postpone the decision on the European Stability Mechanism, scheduled for Wednesday, denying rumors appeared on the market.

The dollar fell against the euro to its lowest level since May 14, and up to the lowest level since June 1 against the yen.

The single currency rose above its 200-day moving average at $ 1.2835 for the first time since Oct. 31.

The Canadian dollar continued to strengthen the four-day, rising to a 13-month high against its U.S. counterpart, amid optimism that a complex stimulus in the U.S. and Europe will lead to a reduction in volatility.

The New Zealand dollar rose after Fitch Ratings affirmed the country's rating at AA,

The British pound rose to the highest level in four months against the dollar after a report showed that the trade deficit in the UK declined in July, as exports rose, adding signs that the economy is emerging from recession.

The dollar index fell 0.7% to 79.834, after falling to 79.806, which is a minimum of 8 May.

European stocks climbed as Germany’s top constitutional court said it will proceed with a ruling on the country’s role in the euro-area bailout fund and speculation grew that the Federal Reserve will boost stimulus.

Fiat SpA (F) and Daimler AG (DAI) led a gauge of automakers higher. Burberry Group Plc plunged by a record after forecasting full- year profit will be at the lower end of analyst estimates. Rival luxury-goods companies Hugo Boss AG and Cie. Financiere Richemont SA retreated more than 5 percent.

The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) added 0.3 percent.

The Fed will give its latest policy statement on Sept. 13, following a two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting. On Aug. 31, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. central bank will provide further stimulus as needed to cement a recovery, citing his concern about the jobless rate.

Tomorrow, Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe will decide whether to halt the country’s participation in the 500 billion-euro ($640 billion) European Stability Mechanism, the euro area’s permanent bailout fund. A bid by German lawmaker Peter Gauweiler to get the hearing delayed after the ECB pledged unlimited funds to buy government debt failed today.

Parliamentary elections are due to be held in the Netherlands tomorrow, and euro-area finance ministers are meeting in Cyprus on Sept. 14.

National benchmark indexes rose in 15 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 5,790.46 -2.74 -0.05% CAC 40 3,537.08 +31.03 +0.89% DAX 7,311.42 +97.72 +1.35%

Billionaire investor George Soros said German-led austerity demands worsen the debt crisis and risk pushing Germany into a depression that’s already taking hold of the euro area’s rim.

A policy of fiscal retrenchment “is pushing Europe into a deeper and longer depression,” Soros said during a speech in Berlin yesterday. “The German public doesn’t yet feel it and doesn’t quite believe it, but it’s all too real in the periphery and it will reach Germany in the next six months or so. My message is that the looming depression is largely self-inflicted and the nightmare can be escaped.”

Fiat, Italy’s largest automaker, advanced 1.7 percent to 4.66 euros and Daimler gained 1.7 percent to 39.45 euros.

Burberry (BRBY) plummeted 21 percent to 1,082 pence, the largest decline since its initial public offering in July 2002. Britain’s biggest maker of luxury goods said adjusted pretax profit in the year through March will be at the lower end of analyst estimates, which range from 407 million pounds ($652 million) to 454 million pounds.

Hugo Boss sank 7.7 percent to 71.21 euros in Frankfurt and Richemont, the biggest maker of jewelry, lost 5.1 percent to 60.90 Swiss francs in Zurich. Christian Dior SA (CDI) and LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA (MC) dropped 4.7 percent to 111.75 euros and 3.4 percent to 127.70 euros, respectively.

Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS), the biggest maker of wind turbines, dropped 6.2 percent to 43.80 kroner. Credit Suisse Group AG said the company may undertake a one-for-one rights offer with a 50 percent discount to the current share price.

Enagas SA (ENG) sank 7 percent to 14.63 euros, the biggest drop since March, as investor Sagane Inversiones sold a 5 percent stake in the operator of Spain’s natural-gas grid. The shares were sold for 14.70 euros apiece, according to a filing.

• ECB bond purchases will track with a wide range of indicators

• Full effect of the 3-year LTRO operations will know about yourself over time

• Central banks should not take an undue burden

• Our mandate is clear, it should not be questioning

• Crisis management is the fulfillment of our mandate

• Crisis management - an integral part of the role of the ECB

• We need to take into account the risk of going beyond the basic mandate

Oil increased for the fifth consecutive day on speculation the Federal Reserve will announce further measures to stimulate the economy, which will increase the demand for fuel.

Crude oil futures show the longest string of days of growth from July in anticipation of the Fed's two-day meeting, which begins tomorrow, and on which politicians can declare the purchase of assets or other plans for stimulating the economy.

The cost of oil also rose by a weaker dollar, which fell after the rating agency Investors Service Moody said it may lower the credit rating of the United States from Aaa to Aa1, if no measures are taken to reduce the level of U.S. debt.

Also worth noting is that the strengthening of the euro against the dollar increases the appeal of oil as an investment alternative.

Recall also that the agency Standard & Poor downgraded the U.S. August 5, 2011, and stated that the political and financial risks can lead to other slides. At the same time, Fitch Ratings affirmed the country's rating at AAA, but has expressed a negative outlook.

Oil also rose as market participants expect output report on levels of oil reserves, which may show inventory reduction last week to the lowest level since March, as more than a third of the oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico remained shut down in 10 days after Hurricane Isaac. It is predicted that stocks fell 2.75 million barrels to 354.3 million level during the seven days that ended on September 7. Official data tomorrow will provide the Ministry of Energy.

October futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX is now $97,11 per barrel.

October futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix is ​​now $114,84 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Gold rose for the third time in the last four sessions due to the increased likelihood of stimulus from the Fed, which caused an increased demand for the metal as a store of value.

It is expected that the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve may consider buying assets at its meeting on September 12-13. Ben Bernanke signaled last month that the third round of so-called quantitative easing may be needed to reduce unemployment. Gold also rose as the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe will decide tomorrow whether to continue the country to make a contribution to the European stability mechanism, which is a permanent eurozone rescue fund.

We also recall that the prices of precious metals reached a six-month high on Sept. 7, after it was announced that job growth in the U.S. in August was below the expectations of many analysts, increasing the likelihood of stimulus measures this week.

Also worth noting that yesterday scrip gold assets in exchange-traded products has expanded to a record 2,480.43 tonnes.

September futures price of gold on the COMEX is now 1735.5 dollars per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.2750, $1.2720, $1.2700, $1.2625

USD/JPY Y79.00

GBP/USD $1.5950, $1.5805, $1.5700

EUR/GBP stg0.7930, stg0.8000, stg0.8015

AUD/USD $1.0325, $1.0300, $1.0250, $1.0200

NZD/USD $0.8110

U.S. stock futures rose as Germany’s highest court said it won’t delay its ruling on the euro area’s permanent bailout fund.  

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,807.38 -61.99 -0.70%
Hang Seng 19,857.88 +30.71 +0.15%
Shanghai Composite 2,120.55 -14.34 -0.67%
FTSE  5,780.56 -12.64 -0.22%
CAC  3,497.57 -8.48 -0.24%
DAX 7,227.49 +13.79 +0.19%
Crude oil $97.16 +0,64%
Gold $1738.00 +0.32%

Data:

01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence August 4 -2

05:30 France Non-Farm Payrolls (finally) Quarter II -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y August -6.7% -2.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods July -10.1 -8.9 -7.4

The euro rose to its highest level in almost four months against the dollar after the German Constitutional Court has declared that it will not postpone the decision on the European Stability Mechanism, scheduled for Wednesday, denying rumors appeared on the market.

Support for the single currency also had a statement of the prime minister of Finland to the fact that all parties of the country in favor of the preservation of euro membership.

The dollar fell to its lowest level in nearly six weeks against the yen on the eve of a two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve System. Most market participants expect the Fed will begin the third phase of the acquisition of government bonds - "quantitative easing" or QE3, and economists estimate the probability of QE3 at 60 percent.

The New Zealand dollar strengthened against all major currencies after the agency Fitch Ratings affirmed the country's AA.

The British pound rose after the data on the country's trade balance, which showed a sharp narrowing of the trade deficit.

EUR/USD

Offers  $1.2855, $1.2850, $1.2820/25

Bids  $1.2750, $1.2730/20, $1.2710/00, $1.2690

European stocks fell for a second day amid concern developments in Spain or Germany will derail the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plan. Asian shares declined while U.S. index futures advanced.

Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s prime minister, said late yesterday he won’t allow the European Union or the ECB to stipulate how the nation narrows its budget deficit as a condition for buying the country’s bonds.

Tomorrow, Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe will decide whether to halt the country’s participation in the 500 billion-euro ($640 billion) European Stability Mechanism, the euro area’s permanent bailout fund.

Investors are also awaiting a policy statement on Sept. 13 from the Federal Reserve. On Aug. 31, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. central bank will provide further stimulus as needed to cement a recovery, citing his concern about the jobless rate.

Burberry plunged 18 percent to 1,123 pence, the largest decline since November 2008. Britain’s biggest maker of luxury goods said adjusted pretax profit in the year through March will be at the lower end of analyst estimates, which range from 407 million pounds ($652 million) to 454 million pounds.

PPR sank 3.8 percent to 123.05 euros in Paris and Richemont, the biggest maker of jewelry, lost 5.1 percent to 60.90 Swiss francs in Zurich. 

FTSE 100 5,771.61 -21.59 -0.37%

CAC 40 3,496.01 -10.04 -0.29%

DAX 7,209.34 -4.36 -0.06%

EUR/USD $1.2750, $1.2720, $1.2700, $1.2625

USD/JPY Y79.00

GBP/USD $1.5950, $1.5805, $1.5700

EUR/GBP stg0.7930, stg0.8000, stg0.8015

AUD/USD $1.0325, $1.0300, $1.0250, $1.0200

NZD/USD $0.8110

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index poised for the first drop in four days, as concern grew Europe will fail to contain its debt crisis and as investors wait to see if the Federal Reserve will boost economic stimulus.

Nikkei 225 8,807.38 -61.99 -0.70%

S&P/ASX 200 4,325.8 -7.97 -0.18%

Shanghai Composite 2,120.55 -14.34 -0.67%

Cosco Pacific Ltd., which gets 31 percent of its sales in Europe, lost 0.6 percent in Hong Kong.

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. paced declines among automakers in Hong Kong after China’s car sales trailed analysts’ estimates in August for a second month.

Electronics maker Panasonic Corp. dropped 1.7 percent after Moody’s Investors Service cut its credit ratings.

01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence August 4 -2

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y August -6.7% -2.6%

Yesterday the euro fell for the first time in four days against the dollar as Greece's coalition failed to reach an agreement on reducing the cost of 11.5 billion euros ($ 14.7 billion), while renewing fears that the debt crisis will continue to worsen.

The single currency fell against most of its 16 major counterparts ahead of the German decision on the rules of the country's participation in the fund saving Europe, which will be announced on September 12.

The Australian dollar fell after a report showed that Japan's economy expanded in the second quarter to two times less than originally expected, thus causing a decline in demand for riskier assets.

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras to meet with officials from the euro zone, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

The leader of the Democratic Left Party leaders Fotis Kouvelis, whose party is one of three in the coalition government, said that no decision on the reduction of costs, and that the poorer Greeks must be protected against austerity measures. The three leaders agreed to meet again on September 12, two days before the euro zone ministers will gather in Cyprus to discuss the situation in Greece.

The dollar strengthened against most major currencies in anticipation of the report of the Ministry of Trade, which is expected to show that the U.S. trade deficit widened to $ 44.4 billion in July from $ 42.9 billion in June.

Pound halted a three-day decline against the euro amid concern that the debt crisis in the region will deteriorate, and by signs that the UK economy out of recession. Sterling rose against the euro, even after a report showed that business confidence fell to a record low in August.

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as reports from the U.S., China and Japan that showed slowing growth in the world’s biggest economies stoked speculation central banks will add to stimulus measures.

Nikkei 225 8,869.37 -2.28 -0.03%

S&P/ASX 200 4,333.8 +7.96 +0.18%

Shanghai Composite 2,128.31 +0.55 +0.03%

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-biggest mining company, rose 4.1 percent in Sydney as copper rose for a second day.

Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science & Technology Co., China’s No. 2 maker of construction equipment, jumped 6.4 percent in Hong Kong after Chinese President Hu Jintao urged Asian governments to speed up infrastructure development.

Tokyo Electron Ltd., a maker chip production equipment, fell 3.5 percent in Tokyo after customer Intel Corp. cut its sales forecast.

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,728 -13 -0.72%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,869.37 -2.28 -0.03%

S&P/ASX 200 4,333.8 +7.96 +0.18%

Shanghai Composite 2,128.31 +0.55 +0.03%

FTSE 100 5,793.2 -1.60 -0.03%

CAC 40 3,506.05 -13.00 -0.37%

DAX 7,213.7 -0.80 -0.01%

Dow 13,254 -52 -0.39%

Nasdaq 3,104 -32 -1.03%

S&P 500 1,429 -9 -0.61%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2758 -0,45%

GBP/USD $1,5987 -0,13%

USD/CHF Chf0,9460 +0,20%

USD/JPY Y78,26 +0,06%

EUR/JPY Y99,87 -0,37%

GBP/JPY Y125,11 -0,09%

AUD/USD $1,0334 -0,47%

NZD/USD $0,8086 -0,45%

USD/CAD C$0,9773 -0,13%

01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence August 4 -2

04:00 New Zealand REINZ Housing Price Index, m/m August -0.7%

05:30 France Non-Farm Payrolls (finally) Quarter II -0.1% -0.1%

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y August -6.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods July -10.1 -8.9

12:15 Canada Housing Starts August 209 205

12:30 Canada Trade balance, billions July -1.8 -1.5

12:30 U.S. International trade, bln July -42.9 -44.2

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y July -9.9% -3.6%