CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 06-09-2012

The euro rose to a two-month high against the yen after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced the decision of the central bank to launch a new program of redemption of bonds, potentially unlimited in volume to "unload" the tense situation on the debt market. Thus, the head of the European monetary authorities do not back down from its July promise to take all necessary measures to save the euro. ECB's key interest rate was in line with expectations remain the same.

More positive than expected ISM report on the non-manufacturing sector came after an equally positive data on the labor market, and together, these data supported the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen against decrease the potential for additional Fed easing. Positive U.S. data also came out against the background of Japanese authorities for further easing measures to help the Japanese economy.

The British pound rose against the dollar after the Bank of England today decided to keep unchanged the interest rate and scale asset purchase program. The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England left interest rates at 0.5%, and the size of asset purchase program - at 375 billion pounds, which was in line with the forecasts of most analysts.

The Australian dollar advanced after a government report showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in August.

European stocks rallied the most in a month after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers agreed to an unlimited bond-purchase program as they try to regain control of interest rates in the euro area.

The ECB program “will enable us to address severe distortions in government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro,” Draghi said at a press conference in Frankfurt. “Under appropriate conditions, we will have a fully effective backstop to avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for price stability.”

National benchmark indexes climbed in all 18 western- European markets, and all 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600 advanced. Germany’s DAX rallied 2.9 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 2.1 percent. France’s CAC 40 jumped 3.1 percent.

A gauge of banks had the biggest gain among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600, rising 4.4 percent. UniCredit, Italy’s largest lender, advanced 8.1 percent to 3.51 euros and France’s Societe Generale rallied 7.8 percent to 22.93 euros. Banco Espirito Santo SA surged 8.3 percent to 61.3 euro cents in Lisbon.

Nokia Oyj, the mobile-phone maker that lost more than 95 percent of market value since 2007, dropped 2.9 percent to 1.93 euros after the stock was cut to sell from hold at Deutsche Bank AG. The shares sank 13 percent yesterday after the company unveiled two smartphones using Microsoft Corp.’s new Windows Phone software.

Oil futures maintained gains after a U.S. government report showed a bigger-than-expected decline in inventories.

Supplies fell 7.43 million barrels to 357.1 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said today. Inventories were forecast to decline 4.95 million barrels, according to the median of 12 analyst estimates.

Futures also advanced as the European Central Bank announced specifics of its bond-buying plan and data boosted optimism in the labor market. ECB President Mario Draghi said policy makers agreed to an unlimited bond-purchase program.

The ECB will target government bonds with maturities of one to three years, including longer-dated debt that has a residual maturity of that length, Draghi said at a press conference in Frankfurt after the ECB held its benchmark rate at a record low of 0.75 percent. Purchases will be fully sterilized, meaning that the overall impact on the money supply will be neutral, and the ECB will not have seniority, he said.

Companies in the U.S. added 201,000 workers in August, according to figures from Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Employer Services. Jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 365,000 in the week ended Sept. 1, the fewest in a month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington.

Crude oil for October delivery advanced to $97.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent oil for October settlement on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London advanced as much as $1.27, or 1.1 percent, to $114.36 a barrel. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $17.52 to New York-traded West Texas Intermediate grade, compared with $17.72 yesterday.

Gold prices updated annual maximum amid comments Draghi. The ECB left interest rates unchanged at 0.75 per cent per annum, and its president, Mario Draghi said on the program of purchasing sovereign bonds to lower borrowing costs of troubled countries in the eurozone.

September futures price of gold on COMEX rose to 1712.14 dollars an ounce and is now 1703.00 an ounce.

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2525, $1.2550, $1.2625, $1.2635

USD/JPY Y78.50, Y78.70

EUR/JPY Y98.60

GBP/USD $1.5865, $1.5900, $1.5925

EUR/GBP stg0.7865, stg0.7935, stg0.7950

USD/CHF Chf0.9600

AUD/USD $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0220, $1.0300, $1.0350

USD/CAD C$0.9900, C$0.9925

U.S. stock futures rose as fewer Americans filed for jobless claims and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers decided on the specifics of its bond buying program.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 8,680.57 +0.75 +0.01%
Hang Seng 19,209.3 +64.23 +0.34%
Shanghai Composite 2,051.92 +14.24 +0.70%
FTSE  5,703.39 +45.53 +0.80%
CAC  3,455.4 +49.61 +1.46%
DAX 7,060.49 +95.80 +1.38%
Crude oil $96.21 +0,89%
Gold $1705.90 +0.70%

• ECB's requirements for

• Aid funds must be prepared to act on the bond markets

• The authorities should continue structural reforms with determination

• ECB adheres mandate to protect price stability

• euro is irreversible

• Direct monetary operations will better support

• Buy bonds to help reduce severe strain on the government bond market

• We must be able to protect the transmission mechanism of monetary policy

• The ECB plans to start a "direct monetary operations"

• Dalneshaya tensions in the financial markets may be the downside risks to growth and inflation

• The tension on the financial markets and increased uncertainty have a negative impact on sentiment

• Economic growth in the euro area remains weak

• Inflation expectations remain subdued

• The basic rate of monetary growth remains subdued

• Inflation is expected to remain above 2% in 2012

Data
01:30 Australia Unemployment rate August 5.2% 5.3% 5.1%
01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed August 14.0 5.1 -8.8
03:40 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks -
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index August -0.6% +0.3% -0.4%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y August -0.6% -0.8% -0.9%
09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (revised) Quarter II -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%
09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (revised) Quarter II -0.4% -0.4% -0.5%
09:00 Eurozone Household Consumption (QoQ) Quarter II 0.0% -0.2% -0.2%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) July -1.6% +0.3% +0.5%
10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) July -7.8% -4.5% -4.5%
11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility - 375 375 375
11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -
11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 0.75% 0.50%

During the day, the euro close to a two-month high against the dollar on speculation the European Central Bank will announce today details of its program to buy bonds. But after the ECB left rates unchanged euro reached a new two-month high.
The single currency rose to its highest level in more than two weeks against the yen after the central bank officials said that ECB President Mario Draghi will present the plan.
The Australian dollar advanced after a government report showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in August. Under the plan, the ECB, which could be called a "currency transaction Duel", the central bank will refrain from establishing fixed income, the amount of purchases will be unlimited, and the ECB will consider the sale of bonds, if the conditions are not satisfied and the ECB will buy short-term bonds ( up to three years). This plan will focus only on government bonds, rather than a wide range of assets
Pound little changed after the Bank of England left its key interest rate at a record low of 0.5% and maintained its asset purchase program at 375 billion pounds.
The Bank of England has cut economic forecasts last month, while the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development lowered its forecast today.

EUR/USD: during the European session, the pair showed steady growth, while setting a new high at $ 1.2650
GBP/USD: the pair grown, reaching $ 1.5925
USD/JPY: the pair was trading in a narrow range

At 12:15 GMT the United States will change in the number of employees from ADP. At 12:30 GMT will be the monthly press conference of the ECB. U.S. at 12:30 GMT will publish the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits, at 14:00 GMT ISM composite index for the non-production sphere for August at 15:00 GMT and are data on stocks of crude oil from Department of Energy.

USD/JPY

Offers Y79.00, Y78.90, Y78.80, Y78.60, Y78.50/55

Bids Y78.20/15, Y77.80

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8015/20, stg0.8000, stg0.7955

Bids stg0.7885/80, stg0.7875/70, stg0.7860/50, stg0.7810/00

Growth indices began trading in Europe. Today will be a welcome speech of the ECB. By Mario Draghi hoping for clear signals to a program is launched to repurchase the bonds of troubled countries or not.
Diminished ardor bulls Eurozone GDP. In the second quarter, in the final year a decline of -0.5%, forecast -0.4%.
On tekuzy point:
FTSE 100 5,699.47 +41.61 +0.74%
DAX 7,057.30 +92.61 +1.33%
CAC 3,444.34 +38.55 +1.13%

EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2525, $1.2550, $1.2625, $1.2635

USD/JPY Y78.50, Y78.70

EUR/JPY Y98.60

GBP/USD $1.5865, $1.5900, $1.5925

EUR/GBP stg0.7865, stg0.7935, stg0.7950

USD/CHF Chf0.9600

AUD/USD $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0220, $1.0300, $1.0350

USD/CAD C$0.9900, C$0.9925

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index poised for the first gain in six days, as investors await a European Central Bank meeting. Material and energy companies climbed as oil and copper prices increased.

Nikkei 225 8,680.57 +0.75 +0.01%

S&P/ASX 200 4,312.9 +34.13 +0.80%

Shanghai Composite 2,042.77 +5.09 +0.25%

HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest lender, rose 0.7 percent in Hong Kong.

Lynas Corp. surged 42 percent in Sydney after it said Malaysia issued a temporary operating license for a rare-earths refinery.

Billabong International Ltd., a surfwear maker, gained 7.1 percent in Sydney after receiving another takeover offer.

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate August 5.2% 5.3% 5.1%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed August 14.0 5.1 -8.8

03:40 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks

Yesterday the euro rose against most of its 16 major peers after two central bank officials said European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will announce unlimited sterilized bond buying to quell the region’s debt crisis.

The 17-nation currency climbed to a two-month high against the dollar last week amid optimism Draghi would announce additional monetary stimulus at ECB meeting.

Under the ECB blueprint, which may be called “Monetary Outright Transactions,” the ECB would refrain from setting a public cap on yields, according to the central bankers, and a third official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The plan will only focus on government bonds rather than a broader range of assets and will target short-dated maturities of up to about three years, two of the people said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel told lawmakers she can accept temporary ECB bond buying, according to a member of her party. German legislator Norbert Barthle said in Berlin that Merkel spoke in a closed-door meeting of Christian Democratic Union lawmakers.

Germany’s Constitutional Court is set to rule on the legality of the European Stability Mechanism, the euro region’s permanent bailout fund, on Sept. 12. The ECB may delay giving full details of Draghi’s bond-buying plan until after the ruling, two central bank officials said on Aug. 24.

Australia’s currency dropped to a seven-week low after the economy expanded less than forecast.

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index headed for the longest losing streak in eight weeks, as economic reports from the U.S. to China and Australia stoked concern global growth is slowing.

Nikkei 225 8,679.82 -95.69 -1.09%

S&P/ASX 200 4,278.77 -24.75 -0.58%

Shanghai Composite 2,037.68 -5.97 -0.29%

Samsung Electronics Co., South Korea’s largest exporter of consumer electronics that gets 20 percent of its revenue in America, lost 2.4 percent in Seoul.

Westpac Banking Corp., Australia’s No. 2 lender by market value, slid 1.5 percent in Sydney as the country’s economy grew at a slower-than-estimated rate.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., Australia’s third-biggest iron-ore producer, plunged 8.5 percent as prices of the steelmaking material fell to a three-year low on slowing growth in China.

•  

  BOJ chief repeats high yen has more costs than benefit at this stage

   

• Japan govt has intervened on yen at best possible timings

• BOJ chief repeats foreign bond buys equal to fx intervention

• fiscal reform plans must come with action

• Japan's pro-growth efforts not enough yet

• Japan tends to underestimate its growth potential

•  

  BOJ chief repeats high yen has more costs than benefit at this stage

   

• Japan govt has intervened on yen at best possible timings

• BOJ chief repeats foreign bond buys equal to fx intervention

• fiscal reform plans must come with action

• Japan's pro-growth efforts not enough yet

• Japan tends to underestimate its growth potential

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,695 -1 -0.04%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,679.82 -95.69 -1.09%

S&P/ASX 200 4,278.77 -24.75 -0.58%

Shanghai Composite 2,037.68 -5.97 -0.29%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2602 +0,29%

GBP/USD $1,5901 +0,18%

USD/CHF Chf0,9555 -0,01%

USD/JPY Y78,39 -0,05%

EUR/JPY Y98,82 +0,26%

GBP/JPY Y124,65 +0,14%

AUD/USD $1,0192 -0,30%

NZD/USD $0,7953 +0,10%

01:30 Australia Unemployment rate August 5.2% 5.3% 5.1%

01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed August 14.0 5.1 -8.8

03:40 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks -

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index August -0.6% +0.3%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y August -0.6% -0.8%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (revised) Quarter II -0.2% -0.2%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (revised) Quarter II -0.4% -0.4%

09:00 Eurozone Household Consumption (QoQ) Quarter II 0.0% -0.2%

10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) July -1.7% +0.3%

10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) July -7.8% -4.5%

11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility - 375 375

11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50%

11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -

11:45 Eurozone Economic sentiment index - 0.75% 0.50%

12:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report August 163 141

12:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference -

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 374 369

14:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing August 52.6 52.6