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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 07-09-2012
The dollar weakened to a three-month low against the euro as U.S. employers added fewer jobs in August than forecast, boosting speculation the Federal Reserve will increase its monetary stimulus.
The Dollar Index dropped to the weakest level since May 11 as the extra liquidity from a third round of asset purchases by the U.S. central bank, known as quantitative easing, may debase the currency.
The Swiss franc fell to the weakest since January against the euro.
European stocks climbed, completing their biggest weekly rally in three months, on speculation that the Federal Reserve will opt for further stimulus after a report showed U.S. employers hired fewer workers than estimated.
The release also showed that the nation’s unemployment rate unexpectedly slipped to 8.1 percent. Economists had predicted a jobless rate of 8.3 percent, according to the median projection in a survey. Unemployment has stayed above 8 percent for the last 43 months.
National benchmark indexes climbed in every western- European (SXXP) market except Denmark today. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.3 percent, while Germany’s DAX advanced 0.7 percent. France’s CAC 40 rose 0.3 percent.
A gauge of banking shares advanced 2.1 percent to its highest level in five months. Deutsche Bank and Barclays surged 5.3 percent to 31.36 euros and 6.9 percent to 206.4 pence, respectively.
Santander SA, Spain’s biggest lender, climbed 1.7 percent to 6.08 euros, while BNP Paribas SA, France’s largest bank, added 1.7 percent to 37.78 euros. Credit Agricole SA and Societe Generale SA jumped 6.5 percent to 5.34 euros and 6.8 percent to 24.49 euros, respectively.
Xstrata gained 3.6 percent to 1,014 pence, while Glencore slumped 3.6 percent to 378.1 pence. The commodities trader, which owns 34 percent of Xstrata, offered 3.05 of its shares for every one that its target’s investors hold, according to a statement from Zug, Switzerland-based Xstrata.
Oil advanced for a third day as U.S. payrolls increased less than expected in August, raising speculation that the Federal Reserve will boost stimulus measures to spur economic growth.
Prices gained as much as 1.1 percent on expectations that the Fed will ease monetary policy at a meeting next week after the Labor Department reported the U.S. economy added 96,000 workers last month, less than the 130,000 median estimate in survey of economists. The European Central Bank agreed yesterday to an unlimited bond-purchase program.
Crude for October delivery rose to $96.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are down 0.3 percent this week and 2.6 percent this year. They have risen 25 percent from the year’s low of $77.28 a barrel on June 28.
Brent oil for October settlement increased 51 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $114 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Resistance 3: 107.00 (high of may)
Resistance 2: 100.00 (area of resistance line from February, psychological level)
Resistance 1: 98.00 (area of MA (200) for D1 and high of August)
Current Price: 94.99
Support 1: 93.70 (Aug 30 low)
Support 2: 92.50 (MA (100) for D1)
Support 3: 91.60 (Aug 10 low)
EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2550, $1.2600, $1.2650
USD/JPY Y79.40
GBP/USD $1.5800, $1.6050
EUR/GBP stg0.7945
USD/CHF Chf0.9500
AUD/USD $1.0250, $1.0300, $1.0390
NZD/USD $0.8075U.S. stock futures rose amid bets on central bank stimulus as payrolls increased less than projected even as the unemployment rate declined.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,871.65 +191.08 +2.20%
Hang Seng 19,802.16 +592.86 +3.09%
Shanghai Composite 2,127.76 +75.84 +3.70%
FTSE 5,790.77 +13.43 +0.23%
CAC 3,545.98 +36.10 +1.03%
DAX 7,221.49 +54.16 +0.76%
Crude oil $96.35 +0,86%
Gold $1728.00 1.31%
Cisco Systems initiated with an Equal Weight at Evercore
Data
01:30 Australia Trade Balance July 0.01 -0.30 -0.56
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index July 93.2 91.7 91.8
05:00 Japan Coincident Index July 94.1 93.2 94.8
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate August 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
06:00 Germany Trade Balance July 16.2 15.4 16.1
06:00 Germany Current Account July 16.5 13.5 12.8
07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves August 406.5 418.4
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) July -2.5% +1.7% +2.9%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) July -4.3% -2.8% -0.8%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) July -2.9% +2.1% +3.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) July -4.3% -2.4% -0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) August +1.3% +1.6% +2.0%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) August -2.4% +1.5% +1.4%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) August 0.0% +0.3% +0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) August +1.7% +1.9% +2.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations Quarter III +3.7% +3.2%
10:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) July -0.9% +0.1% +1.3%
10:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) July -0.3% -3.0% -1.4%
The euro strengthened to a 10-week high against the dollar after the German data showed that the volume of exports and industrial production increased in July, increasing the demand for foreign currency in the region. German exports grew by 0.5% in July, compared with the revised figure in June at 1.4% and economists' expectations of 0.5% decline. Industrial production rose by 1.3% in July, compared with the revised figure in June at 0.4%.
The single currency continued to rise against the yen on speculation that the European Central Bank announced a program to purchase bonds will help contain the debt crisis in the EU. ECB President Mario Draghi said yesterday that the central bank will focus on government bonds with a maturity of one to three years to help keep borrowing costs. Purchases will have a neutral impact on the money supply.
The dollar fell against most major currencies in anticipation of the release of data on the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy and unemployment.
At the same time, the Swiss franc fell against the euro to its lowest level since March, due to lower demand for safe assets.
The dollar index (DXY) shows a decline of a third day before today's report on employment.
It is predicted that U.S. employers hired 130,000 workers last month, after adding 163,000 people in July. Yesterday, a report from ADP Employer showed that companies have created 201,000 jobs in August, which was above analysts' forecasts at 140 thousand.
The Canadian dollar continued its sharp rise yesterday against the dollar as market participants are waiting for release of Canadian data on employment.
EUR/USD: during the European session, the pair showed steady growth, while setting a new high at $ 1.2713 and is now trading in the achieved values
GBP/USD: the pair grown, reaching a high of $ 1.5985, but then fell sharply, reaching a minimum value at the same session
USD/JPY: the pair slightly increased, reaching the previous maximum, and then fell to the opening level of the day
At 12:30 GMT in Canada will come changes in the volume of building permits issued in July, the unemployment rate, changes in the number of employees, including full-and part-time in August, the change in labor productivity for the 2nd quarter. At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will release the unemployment rate, changes in the number of people employed in non-agricultural sector, changes in the number of employees in the private sector of the economy, changes in the number of employees in the manufacturing sector of the economy, changes in the average hourly wage. At 14:00 Canada is to publish an index of the PMI Ivey (including seasonally adjusted). At 14:00 GMT the UK there are data on the volume change of the NIESR GDP for August.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2740/50, $1.2700
Bids $1.2650, $1.2610, $1.2560, $1.2550
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0450, $1.0420, $1.0400, $1.0380/85, $1.0350
Bids $1.0250, $1.0215, $1.0170
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6080, $1.6050/60, $1.6020/30, $1.5990-600
Bids $1.5905/00, $1.5880, $1.5850
EUR/JPY
Offers Y100.60/70, Y100.50
Bids Y 99.10/00, Y 98.80
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.50, Y79.20
Bids Y78.30/25, Y78.20, Y78.10/00, Y77.90
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8015/20, stg0.8000, stg0.7980, stg0.7955
Bids stg0.7885/80, stg0.7860/50
European indices continue to rise after Mario Draghi announced that the fight against the debt crisis in Europe will take place through the purchase of government bonds of troubled countries in the eurozone. Also had a positive impact on the markets yesterday's data on the index of business activity in the services sector in August and statistics on the U.S. labor market.
To date:
FTSE 100 5,789.37 +12.03 +0.21%
CAC 40 3,548.73 +38.85 +1.11%
DAX 7,225.71 +58.38 +0.81%
EUR/USD $1.2500, $1.2550, $1.2600, $1.2650
USD/JPY Y79.40
GBP/USD $1.5800, $1.6050
EUR/GBP stg0.7945
USD/CHF Chf0.9500
AUD/USD $1.0250, $1.0300, $1.0390
NZD/USD $0.8075
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for its biggest gain since December as Europe’s plan to reduce borrowing costs, better-than-estimated U.S. jobs data and Chinese stimulus measures boosted the earnings outlook for Asian exporters.
Nikkei 225 8,871.65 +191.08 +2.20%
S&P/ASX 200 4,325.8 +12.91 +0.30%
Shanghai Composite 2,127.76 +75.84 +3.70%
Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., a retailer and port operator that gets 55 percent of its sales in Europe, rose 3.1 percent in Hong Kong.
China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd. jumped 12 percent in Hong Kong after the mainland government approved road projects.
Toyota Motor Corp., a carmaker that depends on North America for 25 percent of its sales, added 3.4 percent.
01:30 Australia Trade Balance July 0.01 -0.30 -0.56
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index July 93.2 91.7 91.8
05:00 Japan Coincident Index July 94.1 93.2 94.8
The dollar held declines against higher-yielding currencies before the U.S. government releases its monthly jobs report. U.S. employers probably added 130,000 workers to payrolls last month, trailing the 163,000 increase in July, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Labor Department releases its figures today. The jobless rate held steady at 8.3 percent, economists forecast.
The euro traded near a two-month high after ECB President Mario Draghi said policy makers agreed to the unlimited purchase of government debt to reduce interest rates for struggling nations and help prevent a break-up of the European currency bloc. Draghi said yesterday the ECB will target government bonds with maturities of one to three years, including longer-dated debt that has a residual maturity of that length. Purchases will be fully sterilized, meaning the overall impact on the money supply will be neutral, and the ECB will not have seniority, he said. The central bank left its benchmark interest rate at 0.75 percent.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in a range of $ 1.2625-$ 1.2645.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in a range of $ 1.5921-$ 1.5935.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to yesterday's high.
Europe data at 0600GMT includes German trade balance data for July and Q1/Q2 labour costs data. Spain industrial output for July then follows at 0700GMT. UK data at 0600GMT includes John Lewis Sales and the BDO High StreetSales Tracker. It is a busy day for UK data with PPI and industrial production data due at 0830GMT along with Q2 Construction New Orders and also the BOE/GfK NOP Inflation Attitudes Survey. US data starts at 1230GMT with the main release, when non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise by 129,000 in August after the 163,000 rise in July, as suggested by the recent improvement in jobless claims. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 8.3%. Later US data sees the 1900GMT release.
Yesterday the euro rose to a two-month high against the yen after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced the decision of the central bank to launch a new program of redemption of bonds, potentially unlimited in volume to "unload" the tense situation on the debt market. Thus, the head of the European monetary authorities do not back down from its July promise to take all necessary measures to save the euro. ECB's key interest rate was in line with expectations remain the same.
More positive than expected ISM report on the non-manufacturing sector came after an equally positive data on the labor market, and together, these data supported the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen against decrease the potential for additional Fed easing. Positive U.S. data also came out against the background of Japanese authorities for further easing measures to help the Japanese economy.
The British pound rose against the dollar after the Bank of England today decided to keep unchanged the interest rate and scale asset purchase program. The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England left interest rates at 0.5%, and the size of asset purchase program - at 375 billion pounds, which was in line with the forecasts of most analysts.
The Australian dollar advanced after a government report showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in August.
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index poised for the first gain in six days, as investors await a European Central Bank meeting. Material and energy companies climbed as oil and copper prices increased.
Nikkei 225 8,680.57 +0.75 +0.01%
S&P/ASX 200 4,312.9 +34.13 +0.80%
Shanghai Composite 2,042.77 +5.09 +0.25%
HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest lender, rose 0.7 percent in Hong Kong.
Lynas Corp. surged 42 percent in Sydney after it said Malaysia issued a temporary operating license for a rare-earths refinery.
Billabong International Ltd., a surfwear maker, gained 7.1 percent in Sydney after receiving another takeover offer.
European stocks rallied the most in a month after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers agreed to an unlimited bond-purchase program as they try to regain control of interest rates in the euro area.
The ECB program “will enable us to address severe distortions in government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro,” Draghi said at a press conference in Frankfurt. “Under appropriate conditions, we will have a fully effective backstop to avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for price stability.”
National benchmark indexes climbed in all 18 western- European markets, and all 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600 advanced. Germany’s DAX rallied 2.9 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 2.1 percent. France’s CAC 40 jumped 3.1 percent.
A gauge of banks had the biggest gain among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600, rising 4.4 percent. UniCredit, Italy’s largest lender, advanced 8.1 percent to 3.51 euros and France’s Societe Generale rallied 7.8 percent to 22.93 euros. Banco Espirito Santo SA surged 8.3 percent to 61.3 euro cents in Lisbon.
Nokia Oyj, the mobile-phone maker that lost more than 95 percent of market value since 2007, dropped 2.9 percent to 1.93 euros after the stock was cut to sell from hold at Deutsche Bank AG. The shares sank 13 percent yesterday after the company unveiled two smartphones using Microsoft Corp.’s new Windows Phone software.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied to the highest level since 2008 as the European Central Bank announced specifics of its bond-buying plan and data boosted optimism in the American economy.
Draghi said policy makers agreed to an unlimited bond- purchase program as they try to regain control of interest rates in the euro area. He said the ECB will have a “fully effective backstop to avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for price stability.” The bond plan is the most ambitious yet in the central bank’s fight to save the euro after nearly three years of turmoil.
Service industries in the U.S. expanded in August at a faster pace than forecast, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index. Claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in a month and American companies added more workers than forecast, separate reports showed today before the Labor Department payrolls data tomorrow.
The government’s employment report may show overall hiring climbed by 130,000 jobs in August while the jobless rate remained at 8.3 percent for a second month, according to the median forecasts by economists . The unemployment rate has stayed above 8 percent since February 2009.
Change % Change Last
Gold 1,704 +10 +0.56%
Oil 94.89 -0.47 -0.49%Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,680.57 +0.75 +0.01%
S&P/ASX 200 4,312.9 +34.13 +0.80%
Shanghai Composite 2,042.77 +5.09 +0.25%
FTSE 100 5,777.34 +119.48 +2.11%CAC 40 3,509.88 +104.09 +3.06%
DAX 7,167.33 +202.64 +2.91%
Dow 13,292 +245 +1.87%
Nasdaq 3,136 +67 +2.17%
S&P 500 1,432 +29 +2.04%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2632 +0,24%
GBP/USD $1,5934 +0,21%
USD/CHF Chf0,9539 -0,17%
USD/JPY Y78,88 +0,62%
EUR/JPY Y99,62 +0,80%
GBP/JPY Y125,66 +0,80%
AUD/USD $1,0282 +0,88%
NZD/USD $0,8015 +0,77%
USD/CAD C$0,9826 -0,78%
01:30 Australia Trade Balance July 0.01 -0.30 -0.56
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index July 93.2 91.7
05:00 Japan Coincident Index July 94.1 93.2
05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate August 2.9% 2.9%
06:00 Germany Trade Balance July 16.2 15.4
06:00 Germany Current Account July 16.5 13.5
07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves August 406.5
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) July -2.5% +1.7%
08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) July -4.3% -2.8%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) July -2.9% +2.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) July -4.3% -2.4%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) August +1.3% +1.6%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) August -2.4% +1.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) August 0.0% +0.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) August +1.7% +1.9%
08:30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations Quarter III +3.7%
10:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) July -0.9% +0.1%
10:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) July -0.3% -3.0%
12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) July -2.5% -1.5%
12:30 Canada Unemployment rate August 7.3% 7.3%
12:30 Canada Employment August -30.4 9.9
12:30 Canada Labor Productivity Quarter II +0.1% +0.2%
12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate August 8.3% 8.3%
12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls August 163 121
12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings August +0.1% +0.2%
12:30 U.S. Average workweek August 34.5 34.5
14:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate August -0.2%
14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index August 62.8 64.5
15:40 Canada BOC Gov Carney Speaks -
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