CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 14-09-2012

The dollar fell to a four-month low against the euro after the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said to hold a third round of quantitative easing, which is aimed at reducing the cost of the U.S. currency.

The U.S. currency may show the largest weekly decline against the euro since October 2010, amid a new round of monetary stimulus.

The yen fell against all 16 most-traded currencies, after Finance Minister Jun Azumi said he was prepared to intervene in the market to weaken the currency.

The dollar fell 1.1% to $ 1.3137, while reaching the lowest level since May 4.

The yen fell by 1% to 78.23, after falling to 77.13 yesterday, showed the lowest reading since February 9. The euro rose 2.1% to 102.77 yen, after reaching 103.02, which was a maximum of 14 May.

The euro is growing a fourth day against the dollar as the background of the fact that Europe's finance ministers and central bankers gathered in Cyprus for a two-day meeting to discuss the next steps in solving the region's debt crisis.

Also today, Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for the euro at the end of the year to $ 1.34 from $ 1.19, while Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) increased its three-month forecast to $ 1.23 from $ 1.17. According to the median forecast, the single currency will end the year at $ 1.23.

The Swiss franc continued its three-day decline in a row against the euro. Value of the options, which give the right to buy the single currency against the yen, higher selling prices rose for the first time since April 4. The Swiss National Bank also announced yesterday that it would continue to support the franc at 1.2 to the euro.

The dollar index, which is used to track the value of the dollar against six major currencies, was down by 0.6% to 78.760, after touching a level of 78.601, which is a minimum of 29 February.

European stocks advanced to their highest level in 14 months after the Federal Reserve said it will buy mortgage-backed securities to encourage economic growth in the world’s largest economy.

BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and Rio Tinto Group jumped 5.8 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, as Australia’s Treasurer said the country’s resource boom will continue. Lonmin Plc (LMI) rose 4.8 percent as it resumed talks with striking miners at its platinum mine in South Africa.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 1.1 percent to 275.51 at 4:30 p.m. in London, its highest level since July 7, 2011.

The Fed said it will increase its holdings of long-term securities with open-ended purchases of $40 billion of mortgage debt a month. The central bank will continue to buy mortgage- backed securities until the outlook for the labor market substantially improves, the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday in a statement at the end of its two-day meeting in Washington.

The FOMC also said it will probably hold the federal funds rate near zero until at least the middle of 2015. The Fed had said the rate would stay low through late 2014. Fed officials said economic growth will improve faster than they had projected, as they upgraded their estimates for gross domestic product growth in 2013 and 2014.

Euro-area finance ministers and central-bank officials hold a two-day meeting starting today in Cyprus to discuss plans for a banking union in the 17-nation currency zone.

European stocks extended their gains after the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan gauge of consumer confidence unexpectedly climbed. The preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 79.2 in September from 74.3 in August. The median forecast of economists had called for a reading of 74.

National benchmark indexes rose in all 18 western-European markets.

FTSE 100 5,898.55 +78.63 +1.35% CAC 40 3,570.64 +68.55 +1.96% DAX 7,401.59 +91.27 +1.25%

Petropavlovsk Plc, a miner of gold in Russia, jumped 14 percent to 431.9 pence. Antofagasta Plc, which owns copper mines in Chile, rose 7 percent to 1,323 pence, its biggest rally in eight months, as metal prices jumped in London.

Nyrstar (NYR) NV, the largest producer of refined zinc, gained 10 percent to 5.28 euros. Evraz Plc (EVR), the mining company and steelmaker partly owned by billionaire Roman Abramovich, soared 13 percent to 293.2 pence. Vedanta Resources Plc (VED) surged 13 percent to 1,090 pence.

Chemring Group Plc advanced 5.3 percent to 344.9 pence. The company said that the U.K.’s Takeover Panel has extended a deadline for Carlyle Group LP to make a bid until Oct. 12.

Lonmin Plc rose 4.8 percent to 613.5 pence. The third- largest platinum producer by volume resumed talks in South Africa today to end an illegal strike that has spread to nearby mines that tap the world’s richest reserves of the metal.

The preferred shares of Volkswagen AG (VOW) added 4.9 percent to 152.50 euros. Europe’s largest carmaker said sales in August rose 19 percent to 719,500 vehicles.

Today the cost of crude oil exceeded $ 100 a barrel, which was the first time since May, as the Federal Reserve announced that it would buy mortgage-backed securities to stimulate economic growth in the world's largest economy.

Futures rose 2.1% after the Fed announced yesterday that it will hold additional bond purchases in the third round of so-called quantitative easing. The Fed also noted that it would acquire the monthly mortgage bonds to $ 40 billion addition, the Fed will improve the retention period interest rates near zero until mid-2015.

Oil prices also rose on concerns that the protests in the Middle East and North Africa will cause disruptions in the supply of the regions. Also worth noting is that Iran, which is the third largest oil producer, faces sanctions on its energy and financial industries because of its nuclear program.

Recall also that the Saudi Minister Ali al-Naimi said on September 10 that the global demand, supply and stocks of raw materials do not meet the current rise in oil prices.

Still, futures could fall next week on speculation that oil and fuel in the U.S. will increase as the recovery of production in the Gulf of Mexico.

October futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) on the NYMEX is now $99,42 per barrel.

October futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix is ​​now $116,95  a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

On Friday, gold continued its 2-percent increase, which was recorded in the previous session, after the Federal Reserve launched an aggressive economic stimulus program, which immediately affected the value of gold.

Now gold is on a 2.3 percent increase for the week. Recall that the price of gold has been increasing for the fourth consecutive week, as investors were waiting for the Fed decision.

It is expected that, at least in the short to medium term, the Fed's actions will provide strong support for gold and will help him to test the strength level of $ 1,800, or $ 1,900. "

Spot gold prices rose to $ 1,777.51 an ounce, while reaching the highest level since February 29.

The most actively traded contract struck a six-month high, rising above $ 1,780, but then came back to $ 1.777

The data also showed that the largest gold reserves in the fund SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.2% to 1,292.432 tonnes on September 13.

The dollar index fell to a four-month low, while helping to attract buyers of gold.

October futures price of gold on the COMEX is now 1771.1 dollars per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.3050, $1.3000, $1.2900, $1.2800, $1.2750

USD/JPY Y77.50, Y77.75, Y77.80, Y77.90, Y78.00, Y78.20, Y78.50

GBP/USD $1.6060

USD/CHF Chf0.9370, Chf0.9420

EUR/CHF Chf1.2125

AUD/USD $1.0550, $1.0425, $1.0400

USD/CAD C$0.9730

Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P вырос (+0,24%) до уровня 1454.00, фьючерс NASDAQ добавил 0.33% до уровня 2830.33 пункта.

Внешний фон позитивный. Основные азиатские и европейские фондовые индексы завершили сессию или еще торгуются в существенном плюсе:

Nikkei  9,159.39 +164.24 +1.83%
Hang Seng 20,629.78 +582.15 +2.90%
Shanghai Composite 2,123.85 +13.47 +0.64%
FTSE  5,903.09 +83.17 +1.43%
CAC  3,567.55 +65.46 +1.87%
DAX 7,401.42 +91.10 +1.25%
Октябрьские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $99.45 за баррель (+1,16%).
Цены на золото выросли на 0.01% до уровня $1772.20 за унцию.

Фьючерсы на премаркете растут, поддержанные вчерашним решением Комитета по открытым рынкам ФРС.
Вчерашнее решение федрезерва также оказало поддержку ценам на сырье.
Не смотря на сегодняшний и вчерашний рост фондовых рынков, есть высокая вероятность того, что новый раунд QE не окажет столь сильного позитивного влияния на фондовый рынок, поскольку данных действий от федрезерва многие ожидали и это было заложено в цены.
Также стоит отметить, что несмотря на заявление федрезерва о “неограниченном” сроке действия нового раунда QE, он является намного меньше предыдущих программ.

3M upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill

Data
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI August -0.5% +0.4% +0.4%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y  (finally) August +2.6% +2.6% +2.6%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y August +1.7% +1.7% +1.5%
09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings -

The dollar slid to a four-month low against the euro on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s plan to conduct open-ended monetary easing, a process that tends to debase the U.S. currency.
The Fed said it will expand its holdings of long-term securities with open-ended purchases of $40 billion a month of mortgage debt in a third round of quantitative easing. The U.S. central bank will continue buying assets, undertake additional purchases and employ other policy tools as appropriate “if the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially,” the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday in a statement.
The euro was set for the longest stretch of weekly gains against the yen since 2009 after comments by Finance Minister Jun Azumi signaled he’s ready to intervene to weaken the currency.
The Australian dollar rose to a month high against the U.S. dollar.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3122
GBP / USD: the pair grown, reaching a high of $ 1.6250
USD / JPY: the pair rose to the level of 78.23

At 12:30 GMT in Canada will change in the volume of production deliveries in July. Data on inflation and retail sales in the United States will at 12:30 GMT. At 13:15 GMT the U.S. will capacity utilization rate and the change in industrial production for August, at 13:55 GMT - the index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan in September, at 14:00 GMT - the change in stocks in commercial warehouses in July.

EUR/USD

Offers     $1.3200, $1.3180, $1.3100

Bids    $1.3025/20, $1.3000, $1.2950, $1.2935/30, $1.2900, $1.2855/50

Data

00:30 AU Gross mortgage lending in August +2.4% -2.1% -3.9%

1:30 China's Producer Price Index y / y in September -1.6% -1.4% -1.3%

1:30 China Consumer Price Index y / y in September +2.6% +2.8% +3.1%

7:15 Index Switzerland Producer and Import Prices m / m in September +0.2% +0.3% +0.1%

7:15 Index Switzerland Producer and Import Prices y / y in September 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

09:00 EU Industrial Production m / m in August -1.5% +0.8% +1.0%

09:00 EU Industrial Production y / y in August -2.1% -2.5% -2.1%

09:00 EU Eurogroup meeting

The euro rose against the dollar , recovering with a minimum values ​​of the session , which helped the published data on industrial production in the Eurozone.

The report showed that the seasonally adjusted August industrial output increased by 1 percent , thus offsetting the decline in the level of 1 percent, which was recorded in July. It is worth noting that many economists had forecast a modest rise in August, and it was at 0.8 percent, compared with a fall of 1.5 percent, which was originally reported last month . We also recall that in June , industrial production increased by 0.7 percent.

Meanwhile, it was reported that the production of capital goods increased by 2.4 percent, while the production of intermediate goods increased by 0.9 percent. We also add that the volume of consumer goods were up 0.8 percent compared to July , and the output from the energy sector increased by 0.4 percent.

At Statistics also reported that on an annualized basis , industrial output fell in August by 2.1 percent, which was slightly slower than the decline of 2.5 percent , which many economists had forecast . Note that this deterioration followed a decline of 1.9 percent in July , which was revised from -2.1 percent.

We also add that the pressure on the U.S. currency is inconclusive talks between President Barack Obama and Republicans in the Senate. On Friday, the Republican members of the House of Representatives of the United States appealed to President Barack Obama to offer " short-term " to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and pass a budget for 2014 in exchange for a reduction in government spending. But the White House rejected the project.

The pound strengthened against the U.S. currency, but in spite of this, continues to trade near four-week low , as many market participants are waiting for release of an important report on the UK this week. Note that the most anticipated event will be the publication of the report on the unemployment rate . Experts estimate the value of this indicator will remain unchanged - at 7.7 percent.

Pound is also rising against the background of the negotiations to raise the U.S. debt ceiling again deadlocked.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell from $ 1.3570 to $ 1.3543 , but later recovered to $ 1.3567

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5952 , according to then rose to $ 1.5995

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y98.16.

European stocks advanced to their highest level in 14 months after the Federal Reserve said it will buy mortgage-backed securities to encourage economic growth in the world’s largest economy, and as euro-area ministers meet in Cyprus.

The Fed said it will increase its holdings of long-term securities with open-ended purchases of $40 billion of mortgage debt a month. The central bank will continue to buy mortgage- backed securities until the outlook for the labor market substantially improves, the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday in a statement at the end of its two-day meeting in Washington.

Euro-area finance ministers and central-bank officials will hold a two-day meeting starting today in Cyprus to discuss plans for a banking union in the 17-nation currency zone.

Investments in mining and energy projects “still have some way to run,” Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan told the Australia in China’s Century conference in Sydney today, according to a text of his speech

Antofagasta Plc, which owns copper mines in Chile, surged 8.3 percent to 1,340 pence, its biggest rally in nine months, as metal prices jumped in London.

Nyrstar NV, the largest producer of refined zinc, gained 9.4 percent to 5.23 euros. Evraz Plc, the mining company and steelmaker part-owned by billionaire Roman Abramovich, soared 11 percent to 288.9 pence.

FTSE 100 5,907.01 +87.09 +1.50%

CAC 40 3,572.19 +70.10 +2.00%

DAX 7,417.26 +106.94 +1.46%

EUR/USD $1.3050, $1.3000, $1.2900, $1.2800, $1.2750

USD/JPY Y77.50, Y77.75, Y77.80, Y77.90, Y78.00, Y78.20, Y78.50

GBP/USD $1.6060

USD/CHF Chf0.9370, Chf0.9420

EUR/CHF Chf1.2125

AUD/USD $1.0550, $1.0425, $1.0400

USD/CAD C$0.9730

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for the longest winning streak since January 2011, after the Federal Reserve said it will buy mortgage-backed securities to bolster economic growth.

Nikkei 225 9,159.39 +164.24 +1.83%

S&P/ASX 200 4,390 +50.58 +1.17%

Shanghai Composite 2,129.14 +18.76 +0.89%

Techtronic Industries Co., a maker of Ryobi power tools that gets 72 percent of its sales in North America, gained 6.5 percent in Hong Kong.

Zhaojin Mining Industry Co., which gets 89 percent of its revenue from gold mining, surged 14 percent in Hong Kong after the price of the precious metal climbed to a six-month high.

Daewoo Securities Co. paced gains among financial firms, jumping 15 percent in Seoul.

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) July -1.2% -1.2% -1.0%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) July -1.0% -1.0%

Yesterday the dollar fell against the yen after the Federal Reserve announced a third round of asset purchases to support the economy and to reduce the rate of the U.S. currency.

The dollar fell against most major currencies, as the Fed announced that the Fed will buy agency mortgage-backed securities by another $ 40 billion a month

The yen reached a seven-month high against the dollar, prompting speculation that Japanese policymakers may consider the possibility of market intervention to lower the exchange rate.

The Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement that if the prospects in the labor market will not improve significantly, the committee will continue its purchases of mortgage-backed securities and to make additional purchases of assets and use its other tools as necessary.

FOMC said that, most likely, will keep rates near zero until at least mid-2015.

Bernanke said Aug. 31 in a speech in Jackson Hole that the Fed study showed that the large-scale asset purchases may have increased the level of economic output by 3% and caused a rise in employment in the private sector are more than 2 million jobs. He also said that the labor market is a "major concern."

Two rounds of Fed bond purchases totaling $ 2.3 trillion failed to breathe life into the labor market. Unemployment has been stuck above 8% for 43 consecutive months, while the U.S. economy grew by less than 2% in the second quarter.

The central bank is also in the process of replacing the short-term to long-term bonds in order to put downward pressure on long-term borrowing costs.

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as investors await a U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and after a Chinese newspaper commentary said massive stimulus measures would be “detrimental” to the nation’s sustainable growth.

Nikkei 225 8,995.15 +35.19 +0.39%

S&P/ASX 200 4,339.4 -21.85 -0.50%

Shanghai Composite 2,125.68 -0.87 -0.04%

James Hardie Industries SE, a building-materials supplier that gets 67 percent of sales from the U.S. rose 1.5 percent.

Bank of Communications Co. slid 1.4 percent in Hong Kong.

Kansai Electric Power Co. and Kyushu Electric Power Co. advanced on a report the utilities are considering a rate increase.

TDK Corp., a battery supplier to Apple Inc., climbed 4.4 percent in Tokyo after the iPhone 5 was unveiled.

Change % Change Last

Oil $98.10 -0.21 -0.21%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,995.15 +35.19 +0.39%

S&P/ASX 200 4,339.4 -21.85 -0.50%

Shanghai Composite 2,125.68 -0.87 -0.04%

FTSE 100 5,819.92 +37.84 +0.65%

CAC 40 3,502.09 -41.70 -1.18%

DAX 7,310.32 -33.21 -0.45%  

Dow 13,539.63 +206.28 +1.55%

Nasdaq 3,155.83 +41.52 +1.33%

S&P 500 1,459.99 +23.43 +1.63%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2985 +0,67%

GBP/USD $1,6150 +0,27%

USD/CHF Chf0,9353 -0,22%

USD/JPY Y77,49 -0,44%

EUR/JPY Y100,62 +0,22%

GBP/JPY Y125,14 -0,18%

AUD/USD $1,0543 +0,78%

NZD/USD $0,8308 +1,31%

USD/CAD C$0,9688 -0,71%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) July -1.2% -1.2%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) July -1.0%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI August -0.5% +0.4%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (finally) August +2.6% +2.6%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y August +1.7% +1.7%

09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings -

12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) July -0.4% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m August 0.0% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y August +1.4% +1.6%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m August +0.1% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y August +2.1% +2.0%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales August +0.8% +0.7%

12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto August +0.8% +0.6%

13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) August +0.6% +0.2%

13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization August 79.3% 79.4%

13:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary) September 74.3 74.1