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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 01-10-2012
The euro gained from a three-week low versus the dollar as a U.S. manufacturing gauge unexpectedly rose and Spain’s latest budget and banking measures spurred bets the euro region is moving closer to containing its debt crisis. The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. index of U.S. manufacturing rose to 51.5 in September from 49.6 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. A Bloomberg survey projected a reading of 49.7 for September. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.
The 17-member currency strengthened versus all of its 16 most-traded peers after Moody’s Investors Service said Spain’s bank recapitalization is positive for the nation’s credit rating.
A gauge of European manufacturing based on a survey of purchasing managers was 46.1, above an initial estimate of 46 on Sept. 20, Markit said today. The index has held for 14 months below 50, indicating contraction.
Australia’s dollar touched the lowest level in more than a year against its New Zealand counterpart before the larger nation’s Reserve Bank holds a policy meeting tomorrow.
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the currency against those of six U.S. trading partners, fell 0.2 percent to 79.814 after rising earlier to 80.147, the highest since Sept. 11.
Bernanke said Fed policy makers “expect that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economy strengthens.” The Fed’s forecast to hold the main interest rate near zero until at least mid-2015 “doesn’t mean that we expect the economy to be weak through” that year, he said in the text of a speech in Indianapolis.
Expect Inflation To Remain Low For Foreseeable Future
Economy Has Not Been Growing Enough To Help Jobs Figure
Economy Has Enjoyed Price Stability For Some Time
Monetary Policy Not A Cure-All, But Can Help
Expect To Keep Rates Low Even After Economy Strengthens
Tax Reform, Fiscal Changes Would Also Help Economy
Policy Steps Will Likely Help Reduce Federal Debt
Expect Inflation To Remain Low For Foreseeable Future
Economy Has Not Been Growing Enough To Help Jobs Figure
Economy Has Enjoyed Price Stability For Some Time
Monetary Policy Not A Cure-All, But Can Help
Expect To Keep Rates Low Even After Economy Strengthens
Tax Reform, Fiscal Changes Would Also Help Economy
Policy Steps Will Likely Help Reduce Federal Debt
European stocks advanced the most in more than three weeks as test results showed the stress to the Spanish banking system was less than estimated and as U.S. manufacturing expanded for the first time in four months. Spain’s banks have a capital deficit of 59.3 billion euros ($76 billion), stress tests conducted by New York-based management consultancy Oliver Wyman showed last weekend. That was less than the 62 billion euros Wyman estimated in June that the lenders would need.
Spain commissioned the stress test as part of terms to obtain a European bailout of as much as 100 billion euros for its banks after more than 180 billion euros of losses linked to real-estate loans. Wyman tested the banks’ ability to handle an extreme scenario -- a three-year economic contraction -- even as the government debated whether to seek a wider rescue package.
Credit Agricole SA rose 7.8 percent after starting talks to sell its unprofitable Greek unit.
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA climbed 3.4 percent after the International Air Transport Association raised its 2012 global airline-profit forecast.
Banco Popular Espanol SA slumped the most in two months after announcing a capital-increase plan.
FTSE 100 5,820.48 +78.41 +1.37%, CAC 40 3,433.6 +78.78 +2.35%, DAX 7,328.14 +111.99 +1.55%
Far Too Many People Lack Jobs Right Now
Oil rose to a one-week high and the euro climbed against the dollar amid optimism that Spain’s latest budget and banking measures are moving the euro region closer to containing its debt crisis.
Futures advanced as much as 1.2 percent and the common currency gained as test results showed the stress to the Spanish banking system was less than estimated. Spain’s banks have a capital deficit of 59.3 billion euros ($76 billion), stress tests conducted by New York-based management consultancy Oliver Wyman showed last weekend. That was less than the 62 billion euros Wyman estimated in June that the lenders would need. Talks resume in Athens today between Greece’s creditors and the government. Crude fell earlier as China’s manufacturing contracted. China’s manufacturing shrank for a second month for the first time since 2009, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in Beijing. The report added to signs that growth is at risk of reaching a 22-year low as the ruling Communist Party prepares to begin installing a new generation of leaders next month.
Gold jumped to the highest since November after Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said the U.S. central bank can do more to boost growth, fueling concern that inflation will accelerate.
Evans, who doesn’t vote on policy this year, said that unemployment probably won’t fall to 7 percent until 2014. The central bank can “back off” of its accommodation should inflation present a greater threat, he said. Gold rallied 11 percent last quarter, the biggest gain since June 2010, as the Fed announced additional stimulus measures.
Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7 percent to $1,786.20 an ounce at 9:32 a.m. on the Comex in New York, after jumping to $1,794.40, the highest for a most-active contract since Nov. 14.
Bullion soared 70 percent from the end of December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed kept borrowing costs at a record low and bought $2.3 trillion of bonds in two rounds of so-called quantitative easing. On Sept. 13, the central bank said it will expand holdings of long-term securities with open-ended purchases of $40 billion of mortgage debt a month and keep the benchmark interest rate near zero percent “at least through mid-2015.”
EUR/USD $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y77.25, Y77.50, Y78.00
GBP/USD $1.6195, $1.6210
EUR/GBP stg0.7940
USD/СHF Chf0.9375
AUD/USD $1.0350, $1.0400
Have full confidence in the determination of the Government of Spain
Budget deficit targets in Spain are ambitious but realistic
Fiscal consolidation in Spain should continue
The Commission will review the plans to recapitalize banks during the 2 months
Banking reform in Spain is on the right course
Data
00:00 China Bank holiday -
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI September 49.2 50.0 49.8
07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y August +3.2% +4.1% +3.5%
07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI September 46.7 47.6 43.6
07:50 France Manufacturing PMI (finally) September 42.6 42.6 42.7
07:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (finally) September 47.3 47.3 47.4
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (finally) September 46.0 46.0 46.1
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing September 49.5 49.5 48.4
08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln August 0.9 0.7 -0.3
08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals August 47.3 49.3 47.7
09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate August 11.3% 11.4% 11.4%
The euro rose to a three-week low against the dollar as the fact that the results of stress tests of the banking system in Spain will build the confidence, and increased confidence that the debt crisis in the eurozone is close to resolution.
The single currency strengthened against all but one of its 16 major counterparts after ratings agency Moody said that the recapitalization of banks in Spain is positive for the country's credit rating.
The euro rose even after data showed that business activity in the manufacturing sector continued to decline in September, and the unemployment rate reached its highest level in history.
Sensor output based on a survey of purchasing managers was 46.1, higher than the initial estimate of 46. Unemployment was 11.4% in August, unchanged compared with June and July.
Pound weakened as a report showed that UK manufacturing index fell in September more than economists forecast.
Sterling fell to $ 1.6139 after reaching a high of $ 1.6109, which is the lowest level since September 13.
The dollar index, which is used to track the value of the dollar against six currencies, fell 0.1% to 79.820.
The Australian dollar touched its lowest level in a year against the New Zealand dollar in anticipation of tomorrow's meeting of the RBNZ.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose sharply, peaking at $ 1.2910
GBP / USD: pair dropped to $ 1.6107, but then recovered to $ 1.6166, and is now trading at a value of $ 1.6132
USD / JPY: pair dropped to Y77.77, but then he grew up and is now trading at around Y78
At 12:30 GMT in Canada will index of commodity prices for August. At 13:00 GMT the U.S. will provide an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in September, at 14:00 GMT - ISM manufacturing index for September. At 16:00 GMT the U.S. will make a speech the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2990/300, $1.2970/80, $1.2920/25
Bids $1.2865/60, $1.2845/35, $1.2740
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0490/00, $1.0480, $1.0450, $1.0430, $1.0395/00
Bids $1.0330/20, $1.0300, $1.0250, $1.0200
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6215/25, $1.6200/10, $1.6165/70
Bids $1.6085/80, $1.6060/50, $1.6030/20, $1.6000, $1.5960/50
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8150, stg0.8070/80, stg0.8045/50, stg0.8000/15
Bids stg0.7943, stg0.7885/80
EUR/JPY
Offers Y101.50, Y101.20, Y101.00, Y100.80
Bids Y100.20, Y99.75, Y99.65/60, Y99.55/50, Y99.20, Y99.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y78.50, Y78.40, Y78.20
Bids Y77.70, Y77.40/35, Y77.20, Y77.15/10
European indices have responded to the growth of the results of stress tests of Spanish banks. The results show that the necessary amount of additional capital for Spanish banks was 59.3 billion euros, which was less than the 100 billion euros that had been previously agreed with the European Union as an aid to the financial sector. Also continues to be influenced by Spain's acceptance of the budget for 2013, which laid the measures to reduce budget expenditures.
The unemployment rate in the euro area in August was 11.4% (forecast 11.4%), this is 18.2 million people, a record high.
Current value:
FTSE 100 5,796.62 +54.55 +0.95%
CAC 40 3,402.12 +47.30 +1.41%
DAX 7,303.64 +87.49 +1.21%
Xstrata shares were up 1.8% as its board has recommended that shareholders vote in favor of, the absorption of $ 33 billion Glencore International Plc. Nokia capitalization decreased by 0.7% after Credit Suisse Group AG downgraded the market.
EUR/USD $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y77.25, Y77.50, Y78.00
GBP/USD $1.6195(large), $1.6210
EUR/GBP stg0.7940
USD/СHF Chf0.9375
AUD/USD $1.0350, $1.0400
Asian stocks dropped a second day after Japan’s largest manufacturers became more pessimistic and China’s manufacturing shrank for second month amid a global economic slowdown that has sapped export demand.
China’s purchasing managers’ index signaled for a second month that manufacturing is contracting, the first time that’s happened since 2009.
Japan’s Tankan index of sentiment among large industrial companies fell to minus 3, posting a negative reading for a fourth quarter, the Bank of Japan said today. A number below zero figure means pessimists outnumber optimists.
Nikkei 225 8,796.51 -73.65 -0.83%
S&P/ASX 200 4,388.62 +1.61 +0.04%
Shanghai Composite Closed
Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest carmaker by market value, fell 1.7 percent.
Nippon Shokubai, which supplies a third of the global market for chemicals used in diapers, slumped 13 percent to 757 yen in Tokyo, the most since October 1987, after a fire at its western Japan factory on Sept. 29 led to a death and stopped output.
Among stocks that advanced, Arrium jumped 25 percent to 68 Australian cents. The company rejected an offer from a consortium led by Noble Group and Posco Australia Pty. to buy its shares at 75 Australian cents apiece, saying the offer “undervalues Arrium.”
Data:
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI September 49.2 50.0 49.8
The euro rose against the dollar during the Asian session, when the Japanese were published ambiguous indicators and PMI in the manufacturing sector in China, which once again failed to overcome the mark of 50 and reflect the reduction in the sector.
The yen rose against the dollar despite the fact that the consumer sentiment index, calculated by the Bank of Japan, fell in July and September, indicating that the recovery of the Japanese economy stalled amid the slowdown in overseas economies. This is shown by a report released on Monday the Bank of Japan.
According to the data, the index of consumer sentiment central bank of Japan for the period fell to -43.1 vs. -39.5 in April-June.
This means that for the first four quarters deteriorated. The index is calculated by subtracting the number of consumers who say the deteriorating economic situation in comparison with the same period the previous year, the share of those who believe that the situation has improved.
Data on consumer sentiment meet quarterly Tankan index of the central bank, which points to a more pessimistic mood among Japanese business community: sentiment index of large Japanese manufacturers in the 3rd quarter fell to -3 vs. -1 in the 2nd quarter.
The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar under pressure from a number of factors: lower expectations of future RBA rate decision (many in the market predict its decline by 25 basis points), weak Chinese PMI and the overall risk aversion amid concerns about the debt crisis in Europe .
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $ 1.2864
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.6107.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y77.78.
On Monday at 07:00 GMT in the UK will house price index from HBOS in September. At 07:15 GMT Spain will report on the index for the manufacturing PMI for September. At the same time, Switzerland will announce the change in real retail sales for August. At 07:30 GMT Switzerland is to publish an index of SVME PMI for September. At 07:45 GMT in Italy, there are data on the index for the manufacturing PMI for September. At 07:50 GMT France will provide an index for the manufacturing PMI for September. At 07:55 GMT Germany is to publish an index for the manufacturing PMI for September. At 08:00 GMT Eurozone release index for the manufacturing PMI for September. At 08:30 GMT the UK account for the amount of net lending to individuals in August. At the same time become known index for the manufacturing PMI for September and the data on the number of applications approved for a mortgage loan in August. At 09:00 GMT Eurozone will publish data on the unemployment rate for August. At 12:30 GMT in Canada will index of commodity prices for August. At 13:00 GMT the U.S. will provide an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in September, at 14:00 GMT - ISM manufacturing index for September. At 16:00 GMT the U.S. will make a speech the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as signs of slowing global economic growth outweighed optimism Spain’s progress on deficit goals will help Europe contain its debt crisis. Asia’s regional benchmark index headed for its biggest monthly advance since June.
Nikkei 225 8,870.16 -79.71 -0.89%
S&P/ASX 200 4,387.02 +2.85 +0.06%
Shanghai Composite 2,086.17 +29.85 +1.45%
Hutchinson Whampoa Ltd., a Hong Kong-based operator ports in Europe, gained 1.2 percent as Spain proposed a fifth austerity budget that may allow it to meet deficit targets agreed to with the euro zone.
Korea Aerospace Industries Ltd. surged 15 percent after Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. made a bid for an $890 million stake in the planemaker.
Machinery-maker SMC Corp. slid 1.2 percent in Tokyo after Japan’s industrial production fell more than estimated.
European stocks fell to a three- week low, trimming a quarterly gain for the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as investors awaited the results of stress tests on the Spanish banking system.
Hennes & Mauritz AB declined 1.7 percent after SEB AB and CA Cheuvreux SA advised investors to sell the shares. Electrocomponents Plc (ECM) plunged the most in more than seven years after saying full-year profit will miss projections. Cap Gemini SA (CAP) rose 0.8 percent after Accenture Plc forecast full-year earnings that topped analyst estimates. Air France-KLM gained 4.6 percent after UBS AG upgraded the shares.
The Stoxx 600 lost 1.2 percent to 268.48 at the close, the lowest since Sept. 5, as investors awaited the stress-test report. The gauge, which lost 2.7 percent this week, has still rallied 6.9 percent this quarter as global central banks expanded stimulus.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Cabinet yesterday approved a new tax on lottery winnings and a cut in ministries’ spending to shrink the euro area’s third-biggest budget deficit. The government set a 2013 target of 4.5 percent of gross domestic product, compared with a 6.3 percent goal for this year.
The Cabinet also approved using a pension reserve fund to meet an increase in retirement payments, Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria told reporters in Madrid before markets closed yesterday.
In France, President Francois Hollande’s first annual budget raised taxes by 20 billion euros ($26 billion), including a 75 percent levy on incomes above 1 million euros. He aims to reduce the deficit to 3 percent of GDP from 4.5 percent in 2012.
National benchmark indexes declined in 16 of the 18 western-European markets.
FTSE 100 5,740.93 -38.49 -0.67% CAC 40 3,363.6 -75.72 -2.20% DAX 7,226.81 -63.21 -0.87%
H&M (HMB) lost 1.7 percent to 228.20 kronor, falling for a third day. SEB and Cheuvreux downgraded the stock to sell or an equivalent recommendation, while Swedbank and Nordea Bank AB cut the shares to hold or a similar rating. Europe’s second-largest retailer reported on Sept. 27 third-quarter profit that missed analyst estimates.
Electrocomponents tumbled 8.8 percent to 200.30 pence, the sharpest decline since March 2005, after the company said full- year pretax profit will be “slightly below” the lower end of analyst estimates of between 110 million pounds ($179 million) and 120 million pounds.
London Stock Exchange Group Plc (LSE) plunged 8 percent to 943 pence, the sharpest decline since April 2009, after saying proposed European Union regulations will cut income at its Italian central counterparty and may require LCH.Clearnet Group Ltd. to boost capital.
Cap Gemini rose 0.8 percent to 32.93 euros, paring an earlier gain of as much as 2.9 percent. Accenture, the world’s second-largest technology-consulting company, said earnings for the fiscal year ending in August 2013 will be $4.22 to $4.30 a share, beating the median analyst estimate of $4.13.
Air France-KLM (AF) jumped 4.6 percent to 5.04 euros after UBS AG raised its rating on the shares to buy from neutral. The airlines has implemented some key restructuring measures that will help the “pricing environment” and reduce the number of loss-making flights.
Syngenta AG (SYNN) added 1.3 percent to 351.50 Swiss francs after HSBC raised its rating on the shares to overweight, the equivalent of buy, from neutral.
Major U.S. stock indices ended the session in the red amid weak statistics. For the week the index DOW fell 1,05%, Nasdaq fell 2%, S & P500 lost 1.33%.
After a negative start of today's session sales have increased amid the data has not met expectations, which recorded a worsening business sentiment USA.
Today's data recorded a decrease in the index of purchasing managers in Chicago in September to the level of 49.7 points vs. 52.9 and 53.0 value for August. Weaker than forecasts also proved the final index of consumer sentiment from Reuters / Michigan: 78.3 vs. 78.9 and 79.2 value for August.
Also, today presented the stress tests of Spanish banks, the results of which endorsed the European Commission.
As a part of most of the components of the index DOW down. The maximum losses are shares Bank of America Corporation (BAC, -1,90%). Demonstrate the greatest growth stocks Cisco Systems (CSCO, +1.65%).
All of the major economic sectors, except for one down. More than the others dropped the financial sector (-0.8%) and basic materials sector (-0.8%). Growth shows only public utilities sector (+0.2%)
At the close:
Dow 13,437.13 -48.84 -0.36%
Nasdaq 3,116.23 -20.37 -0.65%
S & P 500 1,440.67 -6.48 -0.45%
00:00 China Bank holiday -
01:00 China Manufacturing PMI September 49.2 50.0 49.8
02:00 China Leading Index August 98.8
07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y August +3.2% +4.1%
07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI September 46.7 47.6
07:50 France Manufacturing PMI (finally) September 42.6 42.6
07:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (finally) September 47.3 47.3
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (finally) September 46.0 46.0
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing September 49.5 49.5
08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln August 0.9 0.7
08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals August 47.3 49.3
09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate August 11.3% 11.4%
12:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index August +0.9% +1.4%
12:30 Canada Industrial product prices, m/m August -0.5% +0.2%
13:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (finally) September 51.5 51.5
14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing September 49.6 50.0
14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m August -0.9% +0.6%
16:00 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -
16:30 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks -
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