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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 04-10-2012
Leaders are considering changes to the approach to further guide
Many managers prefer digital thresholds for management
Most managers believe that the flexibility of the plan easing helps manage risk
Most managers believe that the principle of digital management can provide greater clarity
Leaders expect the recovery gain momentum in the years 2013-15
It is expected that the drought in the Midwest will put pressure on the U.S. economy
Many believe that the situation in Europe and the fiscal problems the United States have a negative impact on trust
Continuing problems hinder the pace of recovery
Leaders see significant downside risks to the economic outlook
Managers do not expect a significant reduction in unemployment in 2012
In the residential sector, there are signs of improvement
Fiscal policy and spending cuts in the United States put pressure on the economy
The leaders are watching still unfavorable situation on the labor market
The euro rose for a sixth day versus the yen, the longest run since March, as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the currency was irreversible and the ECB’s decision to start buying bonds helped ease tensions.
The 17-nation currency gained the most in almost three weeks versus the dollar after Draghi said the ECB was ready to start buying government bonds from nations such as Spain as soon as the necessary conditions are met.
The ECB is ready to undertake bond purchases under its plan known as Outright Monetary Transactions “once all the prerequisites are in place,” Draghi said at a press conference in Ljubljana, Slovenia. At last month’s conference, Draghi unveiled a program of unlimited debt buying to cap borrowing costs for debt-ridden nations.
The ECB left its benchmark rate at a record low of 0.75 percent.
Spain sold a combined 3.99 billion euros ($5.19 billion) of two-, three-and five-year notes today as investors debated whether the nation will ask for an international bailout. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy this week denied he has any immediate plans to do so.
The greenback stayed lower versus most major peers as claims for U.S. jobless benefits rose less than forecast, encouraging investors to buy higher- returning assets. U.S. Labor Department data showed applications for jobless benefits increased 4,000 to 367,000 in the week ended Sept. 29. A survey forecast 370,000 claims.
The pound strengthened versus the dollar after the Bank of England left its asset-purchase target at 375 billion pounds ($604 billion) at its monthly gathering. The central bank kept its main interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent.
European stocks closed little changed as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England left their benchmark interest rates on hold.
The ECB kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.75 percent, as predicted by 48 of 52 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The central bank is ready to start buying government bonds as soon as the necessary conditions are fulfilled, President Mario Draghi said today at a press conference in Ljubljana, Slovenia.
The Bank of England maintained its bond-purchase target at 375 billion pounds ($604 billion) and held interest rates at 0.5 percent, as economists had forecast.
National benchmark indexes declined in 12 of the 18 western European markets. Germany’s DAX fell 0.2 percent and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.1 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 was little changed while the Swiss Market Index rose 0.4 percent.
Nobel Biocare retreated 4.3 percent to 9.03 Swiss francs after saying a drop in the Japanese market in the third quarter is “materially impacting” full-year sales and profit. The world’s second-biggest maker of dental implants said annual earnings before interest and taxes will be in the range of 67 million euros to 70 million euros. While Japan represents 13 percent of sales, it contributes “disproportionately high profit,” the company said.
Gerresheimer AG lost 2.3 percent to 39.79 euros. The German producer of pharmaceutical and health-care equipment posted third-quarter adjusted earnings of 62 cents per share, missing the average analyst estimate of 70 cents.
Halfords surged 14 percent to 303.5 pence, the most since the company listed in 2004, after the company said it expects 2013 profit before tax in the upper half of its previously forecast range of 62 million pounds to 70 million pounds. The company also reported second-half same-store sales growth that beat analyst estimates.
Oil rebounded from a two-month low as the euro rose against the dollar and tensions between Syria and Turkey fanned concern that Middle East output will be disrupted.
Prices increased as much as 1.6 percent and the euro gained after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the common currency is “irreversible.”
The ECB is ready to start buying government bonds as soon as the necessary conditions are fulfilled, Draghi said today at a press conference in Ljubljana, Slovenia, after policy makers left the benchmark rate at a historic low of 0.75 percent.
Turkey’s parliament authorized the government to order military action in Syria. A mortar bomb fired across the border yesterday killed five Turks. The killings yesterday in the Turkish town of Akcakale highlight the risk that neighboring countries could be drawn into Syria’s civil war. Turkey has backed the rebels fighting to oust President Bashar al-Assad and allowed them to use bases inside Turkey. Turkish artillery units fired yesterday and today at Syrian military targets.
Crude for November delivery gained to $89.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil plunged 4.1 percent yesterday after the Energy Department reported U.S. production climbed to the highest level in more than 15 years while fuel usage decreased.
Brent oil for November settlement advanced $1.47, or 1.4 percent, to $109.64 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
The price of gold rising against the outcome of the Bank of England and the ECB. On Thursday, the Bank of England did not extend the incentive program, fearing inflation, and left the rate unchanged at 0.5%, and the size of the program QE - at 275 billion pounds.
In turn, the ECB kept rates unchanged at 0.75%. Central Bank head Mario Draghi during a press conference, explained the motives of the decision. According to him, during the 2012 inflation will be kept above 2% and only in 2013 it is expected to fall below this mark. Consequently, the jump in inflationary pressures will be characterized as temporary. Draghi also said that the rate of economic growth are weak, and the recovery is very slow, because the mood of the players negatively affected by problems of financial markets.
Draghi comments strengthened the euro and weakened the dollar, which, in turn, led to a rise in gold prices.
October futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1793.3 dollars per ounce.
Пара обновила внутридневной максимум $1.3012, закрепившись выше отметки $1.3000 в ожидании публикации протоколов FOMC
EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y78.80, Y78.50, Y78.35, Y78.15
EUR/JPY Y100.00, Y102.00
EUR/GBP stg0.8000, stg0.8050
AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0450
AUD/NZD NZ$1.2575
U.S. stock futures rose as jobless claims increased less than economists forecast and European policy makers held borrowing costs at record lows.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,824.59 +77.72 +0.89%
Hang Seng 20,907.95 +19.67 +0.09%
FTSE 5,826.15 +0.34 +0.01%
CAC 3,405.08 -0.94 -0.03%
DAX 7,308.78 -13.30 -0.18%
Crude oil $88.99 +0,96%
Gold $1789.30 0.53%
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) Mizuho reiterated Neutral
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) ISI Group reiterated Buy
The decision to OMT helped to ease tensions in recent weeks
Tensions in the financial markets is putting pressure on the mood
Economic growth will remain weak
Inflation expectations remain subdued
Monetary growth remains subdued
The harmonized index of consumer prices will match price stability in the medium term
Inflation will remain above 2% in 2012, but will fall below 2% in 2013
You should ensure that policy transmission in the euro area
Now it is important that governments continue to deal with imbalances
OMT provides effective protection against negative scenarios
The ECB is independent
ECB adheres mandate
The Governing Council is committed to ensuring the unified character of the monetary policy
Data
00:00 China Bank holiday -
01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m August -21.2% +4.8% +6.4%
01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y August -10.6% -14.3% -15.4%
01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) August -0.8% +0.5% +0.2%
01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y August +3.5% +3.2%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index September -0.4% +0.2% -0.4%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y September -0.9% -0.9% -1.2%
11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility - 375 375 375
11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -
11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 0.75% 0.75% 0.75%
The pound strengthened against the dollar, up from more than three-week low, which it reached yesterday on the background of the fact that the Bank of England decided to keep the size of the program of asset purchases at 375 billion pounds.
Sterling fell for a fifth day against the euro, its lowest level in almost two weeks. The central bank also kept its key interest rate at a record low of 0.5%.
Also today, the research from Halifax showed that house prices in the UK fell in September, noting in this third consecutive monthly decline. Survey also showed that prices are expected to remain generally stable during the rest of the year and in 2013.
Euro rose against the U.S. dollar against the publication of the ECB decision on the base rate, which remained at a record low - 0.75% per annum. In addition, growth was sustained performance of auctions of debt securities in Spain. As it became known, the country sold bonds worth 3.992 billion euros at the planned 3 billion - 4 billion. Spain, which is considered a prime candidate for help, still delay seeking international support.
Demand for the dollar was limited ahead of today's publication of the minutes of the Federal Reserve on September 13, when the Fed chief has announced the third round of quantitative easing, which leads to a reduction in price of the dollar.
Australian dollar in the early session, fell to four-week low after the publication of disappointing data on retail sales in the country. The index is only partially corrected the July drop and you still do not live up to expectations (+0.2% m / m vs. 0.4% m / m, and before. -0.8% M / m). Another report released today also does not change the gloomy assessments of the prospects of the market housing in Australia, showing that in August, building permits increased by 6.4% m / m, but fell by 15.4% y / y vs. +4, 7% m / m, -14.3% y / y
EUR / USD: pair set high at $ 1.2970, near which now trades
GBP / USD: a pair of mid-session shows sremitelny growth utsanoviv high at $ 1.6132, but now retreated slightly to $ 1.6108
USD / JPY: the pair is trading with an increase, setting all-time high at Y78.72
At 12:30 GMT the euro area will be the monthly press conference of the ECB. At 12:30 GMT the United States will report on the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits. At 14:00 GMT in Canada comes from the PMI index Ivey (seasonally adjusted) in September. At 14:00 GMT the United States will provide data on changes in the volume of industrial orders in August. At 14:00 GMT, Canada will release from the Ivey PMI index for September.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3020, $1.2990/300, $1.2970/80
Bids $1.2890, $1.2850, $1.2835/30
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6310, $1.6250, $1.6200/10, $1.6160/65, $1.6140/50
Bids $1.6080, $1.6050, $1.6035/30, $1.6000
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0315/20, $1.0300, $1.0280, $1.0250
Bids $1.0200, $1.0175, $1.0150
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8070/80, stg0.8040/45
Bids stg0.7980/75, stg0.7945/40, stg0.7885/80
EUR/JPY
Offers Y102.50, Y102.20, Y102.00
Bids Y101.00, Y100.80, Y100.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.50, Y79.20, Y79.00
Bids Y78.20, Y78.00, Y77.90, Y77.80/70
European stocks traded in the red zone on the background of the auction of state bonds of Spain.
The market is waiting for the interest rate the ECB press conference, Mario Draghi, and the publication of the minutes of the meeting FOMC U.S..
The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate at a record low of 0.75% in order to further the economic recovery of the euro area and Spain requests for help.
In the UK, Bank of England is expected to leave its monetary policy unchanged and kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% at the end of the two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee.
Now shares SXAP rose 0.62% to a level, and Renault shares jumped 1.5%
Shares of British firm servicing cars and bikes Halfords rose 13.35% after the company said that sales in the summer was higher than expected.
Ted Baker shares rose by 5.09% after a report showed a higher level of sales in the first half.
Shares of British Renold Plc fell -23.58%, after it became known that adjusted operating profit for the year will be significantly lower with lower demand in European markets.
To date:
FTSE 100 5,813.18 -12.63 -0.22%
CAC 40 3,395.85 -10.17 -0.30%
DAX 7,301.4 -20.68 -0.28%
Shares of Nobel Biocare Holding AG fell by 7.66% due to the fact that the second-largest producer of dentures said that the size of the annual profit will significantly impact the Japanese market.
EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y78.80, Y78.50, Y78.35, Y78.15
EUR/JPY Y100.00, Y102.00
EUR/GBP stg0.8000, stg0.8050
AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0450
AUD/NZD NZ$1.2575
Sold E3.992bln vs target E3.0-E4.0bln
E1.997bln 3.75% Oct 2015 Bono, cover 1.98 vs 2.01 prev, at avg yield 3.956% vs 3.845% prev
E1.285bln 3.30% Oct 2014 Bono, cover 2.03 vs 1.90 prev, at avg yield 3.282% vs 5.204% prev
E710mln 5.50% Jul 2017 Obli, cover 2.47 vs 2.06 prev, at avg yield 4.766% vs 6.459% prev
Asian stocks rose, with a regional benchmark index heading for its highest close in a week, as reports on U.S. jobs and service industries beat expectations, easing concern the world’s biggest economy is slowing. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England also hold policy meetings today, after the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly cut interest rates on Oct. 2.
Nikkei 225 8,824.59 +77.72 +0.89%
S&P/ASX 200 4,452.4 +13.84 +0.31%
Shanghai Composite 2,086.17 +29.85 +1.45%
Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest carmaker by market value, climbed 3 percent in Tokyo.
Fisher & Paykel Appliances Holdings Ltd. advanced 3.7 percent in Wellington after directors of the refrigerator maker rejected a bid from China’s Haier Corp., saying it is too low.
Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second-biggest oil producer, slid 1 percent in Sydney as oil traded near a two-month low.
Yesterday the dollar rose against most of its major peers as investors seeking a refuge from signs of slower global growth ignored U.S. reports showing the service industries and private employment expanded more than forecast. Private employers in the U.S. increased payrolls by 162,000 workers in September following a revised 189,000 jump in August, figures from Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Employer Services showed. The median forecast of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected a 140,000 advance.
Australia’s dollar slid to the least in almost a month after the nation had its widest trade deficit since 2008 and data showed China’s services industry expanded the least in more than a year.
The euro was little changed versus the greenback after a report showed the region’s services and manufacturing shrank. A composite index based on a survey of euro-area services and manufacturing purchasing managers fell to 46.1 from 46.3 in August, London-based Markit Economics said. That’s above an initial estimate of 45.9 published on Sept. 20. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Asian stocks fell as Chinese services industries expanded at the weakest pace since at least March 2011 and Spain’s prime minister said that a bailout request isn’t imminent.
China’s non-manufacturing industries expanded at the weakest pace since at least March 2011 as officials struggle to reverse a slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy.
Nikkei 225 8,746.87 -39.18 -0.45%
S&P/ASX 200 4,438.56 +5.58 +0.13%
Shanghai Composite Closed
Companies that do business in Europe dropped. Canon slid 1.9 percent to 2,555 yen in Tokyo. Shimano Inc., a Japanese bicycle parts maker that counts Europe as its biggest market, fell 0.6 percent to 5,420 yen.
Among stocks that fell, Daiichi Sankyo sank 5.4 percent to 1,191 yen in Tokyo. A panel of scientific advisers recommended an early end to the trial of a lung-cancer medicine the Japanese company is trying to develop with ArQule Inc., a Massachusetts- based maker of experimental drugs.
European stocks fluctuated between gains and losses as U.S. reports on private hiring and services- industry growth beat estimates, offsetting Spain’s stance that it won’t ask for a sovereign bailout soon. In the U.S., a report from ADP Employer Services showed that private employers hired 162,000 workers in September after revised numbers showed they signed up 189,000 the prior month. Last month’s figure beat the average forecast for 140,000 in a Bloomberg survey.
EasyJet Plc, Europe’s second-biggest discount airline, rose 3.1 percent as full-year earnings beat its forecasts.
BTG Plc gained the most in more than 10 months after increasing its financial-year revenue forecast.
FirstGroup Plc plunged 20 percent after Britain’s biggest train operator was stripped of the country’s premier express route.
U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a third day, as better- than-forecast growth in American employment and service industries offset concern about China’s economy.
U.S. equities rose after ADP Employer Services said companies added 162,000 jobs last month, topping the median forecast of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg for a 140,000 advance. Service industries in the U.S. expanded more than forecast in September.
The data come two days before the Labor Department’s September payrolls report is published. The jobless rate in the U.S. probably rose to 8.2 percent last month from 8.1 percent in August, as employers kept a lid on hiring, economists said. Payrolls increased by 115,000 in September, less than the 139,000 average over the first eight months of the year, the report may also show.
Over the two years ended August, ADP’s initial release has understated or overstated the Labor Department’s initial private payroll figure by an average of 66,000, according to Bloomberg calculations. The average miss by economists in the Bloomberg survey over the same period was 58,000.
S&P 500 1,450.91 +5.16 +0.36%
NASDAQ Composite 3,135.73 +15.69 +0.50%
Dow Jones 13,494.71 +12.35 +0.09%
00:00 China Bank holiday -
01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m August -21.2% +4.8% +6.4%
01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y August -10.6% -14.3% -15.4%
01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) August -0.8% +0.5% +0.2%
01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y August +3.5% +3.2%
The yen weakened against its 16 major peers on speculation central banks around the world will take more steps to avert a further slowdown in the economies, curbing demand for refuge assets. The Japanese currency fell to its lowest level in two weeks against the dollar as the Bank of Japan (8301) begins its two-day policy meeting today after expanding stimulus last month. The BOJ increased its asset-purchase program by 10 trillion yen ($127 billion) to 55 trillion yen at the previous meeting on Sept. 19, saying the economy’s pick-up was slowing while prices were flat.
Demand for the euro was supported before European Central Bank policy makers convene to discuss ways to contain the deepening fiscal turmoil in the region. The ECB is projected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record-low 0.75 percent today, a Bloomberg News survey shows. ECB President Mario Draghi unveiled a program of unlimited bond purchases last month to ease borrowing costs for debt-ridden nations, spurring a rally in the shared currency.
Gains in the euro were limited before Spain sells notes maturing in 2014, 2015 and 2017 today as investors weigh whether the indebted nation will ask for an international bailout. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy this week denied that he has immediate plans to seek assistance.
Demand for the dollar was limited before the Federal Reserve today publishes minutes of its Sept. 13 meeting, when it announced a third round of so-called quantitative easing that tends to debase the currency. The central bank will continue record stimulus even after economic expansion gains strength, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said this week.
Australia’s dollar earlier slid to a four-week low after data showed the nation’s retail sales rose by less than economists had expected. Retail sales in Australia advanced 0.2 percent in August from the previous month, when they dropped 0.8 percent, the statistics bureau said today in Sydney. Economists had forecast a 0.4 percent increase.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to yesterday's high.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair restored to $1.6100.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose refreshing week's high of Y78.70.
UK data sees the release of the Halifax house price index at 0700GMT, followed by the release of the UK September New car and commercial vehicle registrations data at 0800GMT. Thursday sees the announcement of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee decision, at 1100GMT. At 1145GMT the ECB to announce interest rate decision is due, with no change in policy expected. However, the ECB's 1230GMT press call (policy meeting outside Frankfurt this month - in Llubjana, Slovenia) will of course be the key focus for the markets.
Change % Change Last
Crude Oil 87.96 -3.93 -4.28%
Gold 1780.20 +4.60 +0.26
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,746.87 -39.18 -0.45%
S&P/ASX 200 4,438.56 +5.58 +0.13%
Shanghai Composite Closed
FTSE 100 5,827.7 +18.34 +0.32%
CAC 40 3,404.59 -9.64 -0.28%
DAX 7,321.13 +15.27 +0.21%
S&P 500 1,450.91 +5.16 +0.36%
NASDAQ Composite 3,135.73 +15.69 +0.50%
Dow Jones 13,494.71 +12.35 +0.09%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2908 -0,06%
GBP/USD $1,6080 -0,30%
USD/CHF Chf0,9385 +0,23%
USD/JPY Y78,49 +0,41%
EUR/JPY Y101,33 +0,37%
GBP/JPY Y126,19 +0,10%
AUD/USD $1,0219 -0,41%
NZD/USD $0,8194 -0,84%
USD/CAD C$0,987 +0,32%00:00 China Bank holiday -
01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m August -21.2% +4.8% +6.4%
01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y August -10.6% -14.3% -15.4%
01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) August -0.8% +0.5% +0.2%
01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y August +3.5% +3.2%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index September -0.4% +0.2%
07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y September -0.9% -0.9%
11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility - 375 375
11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -
11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 0.75% 0.75%
12:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference -
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 359 371
14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index September 62.5 59.0
14:00 U.S. Factory Orders August +2.8% -4.1%
17:30 Canada Gov Council Member Macklem Speaks -
18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes
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