CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 08-10-2012

The euro broke a seven-day rise against the yen as European finance ministers meet today to discuss the situation in Spain and the solution to the debt crisis in the eurozone.

The single currency fell against most major currencies after data showed that the level of German industrial production declined, adding fears that the debt crisis in Europe affects economic growth in Germany. German Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to Greece tomorrow for the first time after the start of the financial turmoil in 2009. The yen rose as investors sought safe-haven assets.

Pound continued its decline against the dollar, as a survey by Lloyds Bank showed that the assessment of the prospects of employment index fell in September to -49 from -43 in August. The pound also recorded the 7th daily decline against the euro, while showing the longest drop since November 2009. Analysts expect the pound could fall to a level of $ 1,5912-1,5900, which is the lowest rate in more than a month after he failed last week to break key resistance levels.

The yen rose against the dollar on downgrade the World Bank forecast for GDP growth for Asia Tihoookeanskogo region (excluding Japan and India) due to a slowdown in the Chinese economy. It is expected that the growth rate of the economy of the region was 7.2% in the current year, whereas previously predicted 7.6%. It is worth noting that this will be minimal increase of GDP since 2001. Moreover, the forecasts for 2013 were also up 7.6% to 8%, as reported previously.

European stocks dropped the most this month as the World Bank cut its East Asian growth forecast and investors awaited a meeting of euro-area finance ministers for signs on how they will tackle the debt crisis.

Cookson Group Plc (CKSN) sank 12 percent as the world’s biggest maker of ceramic linings for metal smelters said annual results will miss its forecasts. KBC Groep NV (KBC) retreated 5.2 percent as the bank’s strategy update disappointed investors. Eurobank Ergasias SA advanced 5.1 percent after a takeover offer from National Bank of Greece SA. (ETE)

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) lost 1 percent to 271.43 at the close of trading, the largest decline since Sept. 28.

In China, the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) retreated 0.6 percent on the first day of trading after a weeklong holiday amid concern the deepening economic slowdown will hurt profits and as money-market rates rose the most in a month.

The World Bank said growth in developing East Asia, which excludes Japan and India, will probably ease to 7.2 percent this year from 8.3 percent in 2011. That is the slowest pace since 2001, according to World Bank data, and lower than a forecast in May of 7.6 percent.

National benchmark indexes declined in all of the 18 western European markets, except Iceland.

FTSE 100 5,840.16 -30.86 -0.53% CAC 40 3,407.88 -49.16 -1.42% DAX 7,292.27 -105.60 -1.43

German industrial production declined in August as the debt crisis damped economic growth and prompted companies to scale back investment. Production fell 0.5 percent from July, when it gained 1.2 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today.

Cookson tumbled 12 percent to 539 pence, the largest drop since February 2009. The company said full-year results will be “materially” lower than forecast after the Engineered Ceramics division’s third-quarter performance was weaker than expected.

KBC slid 5.2 percent to 19.61 euros as Belgium’s biggest bank and insurer by market value said it plans to reduce operating expenses as a proportion of revenue to 55 percent by 2015. The shares have still more than doubled this year.

Eurobank advanced 5.1 percent to 1.23 euros, the highest since February, after National Bank of Greece offered to acquire its domestic rival as Greece’s debt crisis forces a wave of mergers. National Bank rallied 5.7 percent to 2.21 euros.

Imperial Tobacco Group Plc (IMT) slipped 2.4 percent to 2,314 pence, the biggest drop in a month, as Nomura Holdings Inc. downgraded the maker of West and Davidoff cigarettes to reduce from neutral.

JCDecaux SA (DEC), a French outdoor advertising company, retreated 4.1 percent to 17.50 euros. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its recommendation on the stock to sell from buy and added the shares to its “conviction sell” list.

Crude oil futures retreated on Monday as concerns about the debt crisis in the Eurozone continue to have an impact on reducing the demand for oil, and against the background of the worsening dispute between the political elite of Iran.

Futures declined due to a meeting of officials of the euro area, which takes place in Luxembourg. Investors also await the signal that Europe will review the situation regarding the worsening financial crisis in Spain.

The problems in Europe have weighed on the oil market and the financial crisis on the continent has reduced demand for oil and raised fears that the economic problems could spread to other places.

News helped boost the dollar against the euro, which will also reduce the price of oil, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

We also learned that Iranian lawmakers have criticized President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over the decline in value of the currency of Iran and its views on the economy. Recall that the Iranian president is under fire for months against the inability to resolve the confrontation between Tehran and the West over its nuclear program.

Investors are taking this step as a sign that Western sanctions are working, reducing the chances of an imminent military strike by Israel or the wider conflict that could disrupt crude supplies.

Oil prices fell by about 3% this month, as the market focus shifted back to the problems of slowing demand. Weakness in the U.S., Europe and China, which are the largest consumers of oil in the world is also providing significant pressure on the market. Friday relatively upbeat U.S. jobs report failed to stop the last one of the sources of growth for the market has been a series of recent surveys of oil refineries in the U.S., which caused a rise in gasoline prices. Note that in California, the retail prices approach $ 5 per gallon, while prices in the wholesale market fell on Friday.

Also today it was announced that the price of Brent oil over WTI oil prices reached their highest level since last October. Tensions over Iran is supporting oil Brent, while growth stocks in the U.S. is putting pressure on oil WTI.

November futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) is 89.48 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

November futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mixture is 111.94 dollars a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

• The Bundesbank expects the risks will increase in 2013

• Germany's economic growth will slow down in 2012

• The German economy is increasingly strained

• Bilateral credit lines to the IMF should be for a limited period of time

• IMF should monitor the risks that exist outside the eurozone

Most of today's gold futures traded at a significant reduction in the background of the fact that the strengthening of the dollar resulted in a decline in demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment.

Note that the dollar rose 0.5% against a basket of currencies against the meeting of European finance ministers in Luxembourg, as well as speculation that Spain is trying to avoid the need for loans due to the growth of sovereign debt .. We note that on Friday, gold fell from its highest level in 11 months, which was caused by the published data, which showed that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since January 2009, releasing the pressure on the Fed.

Precious metals prices rose by 5.1% last month on speculation the incentive program in the U.S., Europe and Japan will increase the appeal of the metal as an alternative to currencies.

But despite this decline, the last couple of hours the price of gold rose sharply, and gradually approaching the opening day.

October futures price of gold on the COMEX is now 1775.1 dollars per ounce.

 Fitch отмечает предпочтительный статус кредитора и силу управления ESM

У ESM всегда будет достаточно ликвидности, чтобы выполнить свои обязательства в следующие 12 месяцев

Sold E6.989bln vs target E5.6bln-E7.0bln

- E3.796bln 3-month BTF, avg yield -0.018% (-0.017%), cover 3.06 (3.45)

- E1.595bln 6-month BTF, avg yield -0.010% (-0.009%), cover 4.89 (4.31)

- E1.598bln 12-month BTF, avg yield 0.018% (0.025%), cover 3.26 (3.6) 

EUR/USD $1.2970, $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3050, $1.3100

USD/JPY Y78.50

GBP/USD $1.6030, $1.6100, $1.6250

AUD/USD $1.0100, $1.0250, $1.0275

AUD/NZD NZ$1.2550

U.S. stock futures fell as European finance ministers prepared to meet to discuss the region’s debt crisis.

Global Stocks

Hang Seng 20,824.56 -187.82 -0.89%
Shanghai Composite 2,074.42 -11.75 -0.56%
FTSE  5,834.25 -36.77 -0.63%
CAC  3,421.99 -35.05 -1.01%
DAX 7,304.97 -92.90 -1.26%
Crude oil $88.54 -1,49%
Gold $1772.10 -0.49%

Data

05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate September 2.9% 3.0% 2.9%

06:00 Germany Trade Balance August 16.1 15.8 18.3

06:00 Germany Current Account August 12.8 13.0 11.1

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) September 0.0% +0.3% +0.3%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) September -0.5% -0.4% -0.4%

08:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings -

08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence October -23.2 -20.6 -22.2

10:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) August +1.3% -0.7% -0.5%

10:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) August -1.4% -1.5% -1.3%

EUR/USD

Offers   $1.3100, $1.3080, $1.3020/25, $1.2995/000, $1.2975

Bids   $1.2950/30, $1.2910/00

Germany sold E2.42bln 6-month Bubill at average yield -0.0218% (-0.0147%), cover 2.3 (1.5) and E1.58ln or 39.5% held for secondary market operations vs 15% previously.

European stocks dropped the most this month as the World Bank cut its East Asian growth forecast and euro-area finance ministers meet to discuss the region’s debt crisis.

The World Bank said growth in developing East Asia, which excludes Japan and India, will probably ease to 7.2 percent this year from 8.3 percent in 2011. That is the slowest pace since 2001, according to World Bank data, and lower than a forecast in May of 7.6 percent.

European finance ministers meet in Luxembourg today to discuss Spain’s overhaul effort and closer banking cooperation. Tomorrow, German Chancellor Angela Merkel makes her first visit to Greece since the turmoil began in 2009. The next day, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy travels for talks with French President Francois Hollande in Paris.

Finance ministers from the 17-member euro area will discuss issues including Spain at 5 p.m. in Luxembourg today and policy makers from all 27 nations in the European Union will meet tomorrow. EU leaders gather for a summit in Brussels on Oct. 18-19.

Cookson tumbled 14 percent to 531 pence, the largest drop since November. The company said full-year results will be “materially” lower than forecast after the Engineered Ceramics division’s third-quarter performance was weaker than expected.

Michael Page lost 3 percent to 354.2 pence after saying full-year operating profit will probably be “slightly below” analysts’ projections. Hays Plc, a rival recruiter, dropped 3.4 percent to 76 pence.

Eurobank jumped 10 percent to 1.29 euros, the highest since February, after National Bank of Greece offered to acquire its domestic rival as Greece’s debt crisis forces a wave of mergers. National Bank rallied 11 percent to 2.31 euros.

FTSE 100 5,830.89 -40.13 -0.68%

CAC 40 3,414.32 -42.72 -1.24%

DAX 7,294.99 -102.88 -1.39%

EUR/USD $1.2970, $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3050, $1.3100

USD/JPY Y78.50

GBP/USD $1.6030, $1.6100, $1.6250

AUD/USD $1.0100, $1.0250, $1.0275

AUD/NZD NZ$1.2550

Asian stocks outside Japan dropped as China resumed trading after a weeklong holiday and ahead of a meeting by European finance ministers today aimed at easing the region’s debt crisis. Companies that do business in Europe dropped as European finance ministers meet in Luxembourg today to discuss Spain’s overhaul effort and closer banking cooperation. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will travel to Paris on Oct. 10 for talks with French President Francois Hollande. German Chancellor Angela Merkel will visits Greece tomorrow for the first time since the sovereign-debt crisis erupted.

Nikkei 225 8,863.3 +38.71 +0.44%

S&P/ASX 200 4,481.9 -12.48 -0.28%

Shanghai Composite 2,067.58 -18.59 -0.89%

LG Display Co., the world’s second-largest maker of liquid- crystal displays that gets 18 percent of sales in Europe, fell 2.4 percent in Seoul.

CapitaLand Ltd. dropped 2.7 percent, pacing declines among Singapore property developers, after the central bank restricted home-loan maturities for residential properties.

ZTE Corp. decreased 3.7 percent in Hong Kong after a draft U.S. congressional report said China’s largest phone- equipment maker poses a security threat.

On Friday the euro rose against the dollar and the yen against the U.S. improve statistics on the labor market. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8% in September, mainly due to the increase of employment of Americans to work part time, and off-farm employment increased by 114 thousand (the August value was revised to 142 million). The average duration of the week and hourly wage also rose last month.

With regard to regional statistics, the German factory orders for August fell short of expectations: the indicator fell by 4.8% y / y after the July decline of 4.6% and -4.3% forecast. In monthly terms orders fell by 1.3% vs. -0.5%. In the 2nd quarter of eurozone GDP fell by 0.2% after falling 0.3% in the previous quarter. This result coincided with analysts' forecasts. Spanish industrial output came out better than expected, although it remained in negative territory (-3.2% vs. prev. -5.4% And -5.5% of the forecast).

The yen earlier rose against major currencies after the Bank of Japan decided not to change the course of monetary policy. The Bank of Japan on Friday left its benchmark interest rate in the range of 0-0.1%. The total amount of incentive programs Bank of Japan kept at 80 trillion yen (just over $ 1 trillion), including a program of emergency loans to banks - 25 trillion yen asset repurchase program, expanded in the past month - 55 trillion yen. CB solutions line with expectations of economists.

The Canadian dollar was higher against the U.S. dollar after the rate of employment in Canada increased more than five times faster than economists' forecasts, with increased job full-time, starting from the retail sector and to construction. However, the unemployment rate also rose, with increased labor force. Employment rose by 52,100 in September, after rising by 34,300 in August, according to statistics office. Unemployment rate increased to 7.4% from 7.3%, and the labor force increased by 72,600.

Asian stocks rose, with the benchmark regional index set to gain for the first week in three, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the bank stands ready to buy bonds to ease the region’s debt crisis and as U.S. economic data beat estimates. ECB PresidentDraghi said the central bank is ready to start buying government bonds of indebted euro nations as soon as the necessary conditions are fulfilled. The ECB yesterday kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a historic low of 0.75 percent.

Nikkei 225 8,863.3 +38.71 +0.44%

S&P/ASX 200 4,494.4 +42.05 +0.94%

Shanghai Composite 2,086.17 +29.85 +1.45%

Brother Industries Ltd., a Japanese office-equipment maker that gets 28 percent of sales in Europe, advanced 2.5 percent.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, rose 1 percent after a gauge of commodity prices yesterday climbed by the most in two months.

LG Display Co. slid 4.5 percent in Seoul after Korea Investment & Securities cut its rating on the stock, saying television and notebook panel prices may fall.

00:00 Japan Bank holiday -

00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) September -2.3% -2.8%

00:00 Japan Bank holiday -

00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) September -2.3% -2.8%

05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate September 2.9% 3.0%

06:00 Germany Trade Balance August 16.1 15.8

06:00 Germany Current Account August 12.8 13.0

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) September 0.0% +0.3%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) September -0.5% -0.4%

08:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings -

08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence October -23.2 -20.6

10:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) August +1.3% -0.7%

10:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) August -1.4% -1.5%

12:00 Canada Bank holiday -

12:00 U.S. Bank holiday -

21:00 New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Quarter III -4

23:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y September -0.4% -0.4%

23:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance September -19% -20%