CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 10-10-2012

The euro rose to one-week low against the U.S. dollar after failing to fall below a key technical level.

The single currency fell to near its 200-day moving average before cutting losses. Earlier, the euro was down, as European finance ministers this week failed to reassure investors as to the eurozone sovereign debt crisis is close to resolution.

As European finance ministers meeting in Luxembourg this week welcomed the determination of Greece to trim its deficit to your budget.

The Canadian dollar fell against most of its most traded currencies against the fact that the concerns about slowing growth in China will have a negative impact on demand for commodities such as oil and gold.

Also, the Canadian dollar fell after it was reported that car sales in China unexpectedly fell, it was the first time in eight months. Also today, the company Alcoa Inc (AA) said that the slowdown in growth in the country will lead to a global reduction in demand for aluminum. Note that raw materials account for about half of Canada's export revenue, and China, which is the world's largest consumer of metals and energy.

Pound broke his three-day losing streak against the dollar, up from its lowest level in four weeks after the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said the UK economy expanded in the third quarter by 0.8%, registering with the highest rates growth over the past five years. Bond yields fell after the governor of the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said yesterday that inflation targeting should remain the focus of monetary policy.

The Australian dollar rose on the third day after the country sold its most long-term debt over the past thirty years, while increasing demand for assets of the country.

Also, the currency rose against the fact that the price of iron ore, which is the largest export product in Australia, rose to two-month high. Demand for currency was reduced in anticipation of tomorrow's report on the unemployment rate, which is expected to have grown to a three-month high.

• Drought continues to affect some counties

• Conditions in agriculture are inconsistent

• Credit conditions have not changed

• Total demand for loans remained unchanged or increased

• Conditions in the industry are mixed, there is some improvement

• Conditions in the commercial real estate contradictory

• Conditions in the housing market showing widespread improvements

• Active tourism is stable in most districts

• Sales of cars, in general, stable

• Consumer spending remained unchanged or increased slightly

European stocks declined for a third day as investors speculated that economic fundamentals don’t justify current stock valuations and Alcoa Inc. (AA) cut its forecast for global aluminum demand.

Anheuser-Busch InBev NV slipped 1.2 percent after a report that the U.S. may block its $20 billion takeover of Grupo Modelo SAB. BAE Systems Plc (BA/) fell after abandoning plans to merge with European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. Imagination Technologies Group Plc (IMG) lost 9.4 percent as analysts recommended selling the shares.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) dropped 0.6 percent to 268.71 at the close of trading, the lowest level since Sept. 28.

Alcoa, the largest American aluminum producer, kicked off the U.S. earnings season by cutting its forecast for global consumption of the metal by 1 percentage point on slowing Chinese demand. The company reported third-quarter profit and sales that exceeded estimates.

The International Monetary Fund yesterday cut its global growth forecasts and warned of even slower expansion if European officials don’t address threats to their economies.

National benchmark indexes fell in all 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 5,787.21 -23.04 -0.40% CAC 40 3,369.79 -12.99 -0.38% DAX 7,212.46 -22.07 -0.31%

AB InBev (ABI) dropped 1.2 percent to 67.31 euros after The Capitol Forum reported that the U.S. Department of Justice may want to block the company’s purchase of Mexico’s Modelo, which brews Corona beer. The department may not approve the deal in its current form, the news service that tracks antitrust events said.

BAE fell 1.4 percent to 320.9 pence after the arms company and EADS confirmed they are no longer pursuing a merger. It had become clear that the interests of the “government stakeholders” could not be adequately reconciled, the two companies said. EADS jumped 5.3 percent to 27.48 euros.

Imagination Technologies tumbled 9.4 percent to 455.5 pence for the biggest decline in the Stoxx 600. Credit Suisse Group AG started coverage of the U.K. chip designer with an underperform rating, similar to a sell recommendation.

Elsewhere, Publicis Groupe SA (PUB), the world’s third-largest advertising company, declined 2.6 percent to 43.16 euros after Exane BNP Paribas said third-quarter revenue growth may miss forecasts as the advertisement market worsened since July.

Capita Plc (CPI) fell 1.8 percent to 727 pence. RBC Capital Markets downgraded the supplier of services for the British army to sector perform, a recommendation similar to hold, from outperform, a rating equivalent to buy.

Bankia SA (BKIA) paced advancing shares, climbing 4 percent to 1.02 euros, the first advance in 13 days. Bankia said it sold 126 million euros of written-off car loans to Norway’s Aktiv Kapital. Since July, the bank has sold 926 million euros of soured loans.

Man Group Plc (EMG) rose 3.8 percent to 93.4 pence, the highest price in five months, after the Daily Mail reported BlackRock Inc. may buy the company. The firm may head a group of bidders in a 140 pence-a-share offer, the Daily Mail reported, without saying where it got the information.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc advanced 2.1 percent to 262.7 pence after agreeing to sell two buildings in Frankfurt and Berlin to Axa Investment Managers SA in the biggest German commercial real estate transaction this year, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY), the U.K.’s second-biggest government-aided bank, gained 4 percent to 38.48 pence.

Oil continued its yesterday's rise, which was due to fears that rising tensions in the Middle East could cause disruptions in the supply of the region, which accounts for over a third of world production.

Prices also rose after U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said the U.S. has sent military advisers to Jordan and Turkey offered humanitarian support and assistance in case of possible military confrontation with Syria. Turkey's top general Necdet Ozel warned of a harsh response if the Syrian military will continue to bomb the Turkish soil.

Also, the U.S. Energy Department cut its oil price forecast for 2012 to $ 95.55 per barrel from $ 95.66 last month.

Note that according to the Statistical Review of World Energy in the Middle East and North Africa in 2011 was concentrated 36% of the world's oil and 52% of proven reserves.

Also, the price of oil fell amid early forecasts that U.S. stocks rose last week for the first time in three weeks.

Analysts expect oil reserves rose by 1.5 million barrels to 366.2 million in the seven days that ended on October 5.

Also note that the weekly report from the Department of Energy's delayed for a day because of the Columbus Day holiday, which was celebrated in the U.S. on October 8.

November futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) is 91.28 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

November futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mixture is 113.69 dollars a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices fell again, registering with the third consecutive drop in a row due to the fact that a stern warning from the International Monetary Fund concerning the growth of the global economy and fears of a slowdown in the Chinese economy have reduced the appeal of gold as a hedge against inflation.

The cost of the precious metal came under pressure, as the situation in Greece is gradually heating up, and the streets are filled crowd of protesters in connection with the visit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has not given any guarantees for further assistance.

Also, the price of gold has affected China's central bank remark that China will maintain a flexible monetary policy, as the economy continues to have a relatively large downward pressure.

Also note that the three-day decline of gold has led to the fact that it is now well below the overbought level (Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the level of 70 and reached 60).

Gold, which is a traditional tool for hedging inflation may weaken on signs of a slowdown in China, which is the second largest economy in the world and is often considered one of the best factors of global growth.

At this time, the IMF said the global economic downturn worsens, and the inability of U.S. and European politicians to resolve it may aggravate the situation.

Note also that the fall in gold prices was limited by the sharp rise in oil prices due to increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

October futures price of gold on the COMEX fell  2.5$ today and now is 1760.50 dollars per ounce.

• All banks should be subject to surveillance

• It is important to signal that the process of bank union goes on

• I am convinced that there is full agreement on the bank union

• The concept of bank union should be ready this year

• It is desirable that the European Council has shown commitment to the banking union

• I see no reason for the delay with the banking union

• Terms of creation of bank union can be met

• EU must implement an agreement on fiscal and bank union

• EU should follow the conventions made ​​in June

• I want to have been made clear steps in the banking union until the end of the year

EUR/USD  $1.2800, $1.2880, $1.2900, $1.2940, $1.3000

USD/JPY Y78.25, Y78.55, Y78.60, Y79.00

EUR/JPY Y100.00, Y99.95

GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6050

USD/CHF Chf0.9375, Chf0.9360, Chf0.9350

AUD/USD $1.0115, $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0250 

U.S. stock futures were little changed as investors weighed earnings reports amid concern about global economic growth.
Shares of Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, fell  after cutting its outlook for global demand of the metal. Shares of  Chevron (CVX) Corp. slid  after saying third-quarter earnings were “substantially” lower than the previous period.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,596.23 -173.36 -1.98%
Hang Seng 20,919.6 -17.68 -0.08%
Shanghai Composite 2,119.94 +4.71 +0.22%
FTSE  5,792.44 -17.81 -0.31%
CAC  3,376.02 -6.76 -0.20%
DAX 7,222.5 -12.03 -0.17%
Crude oil $91.94 -0,49%
Gold $1764.20 -0,05%

JPMorgan Chase resumed with a Buy at BofA/Merrill
Home Depot downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer

 Data

04:00 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks -
06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m August +0.2% +0.1% +1.5%
06:45 France Industrial Production, y/y August -3.1% -4.2% -0.9%
 

The euro rose against the dollar and the yen on expectations of the outcome of the meeting and Hollande Raho and publication of the Beige Book.

Slightly disappointed investors was the fact that the Ministry of Finance at a meeting of Europe rescue program was not discussed in Spain due to the fact that the country sees its position in the financial markets as a rather favorable. According to the IMF report, Spain has become the country with the greatest economy in the euro zone program in 2012-2013, and at the same time one of the states, which marked the largest increase in total debt of weaker growth.

Industrial output in France, Italy and Greece rose unexpectedly in August (1.5% m / m in France, 1.7% m / m to 5.2% y / y vs. -7.2% previously in Italy and by 2% y / y vs. 4% in Greece). The trade deficit widened in June, Portugal from € -1.997 bln. up to € -2.183 billion German wholesale price index rose by 1.3% m / m and 4.2% y / y in September, exceeding forecasts.

The British pound rose against the dollar after the annual conference of the Conservative Party Prime Minister David Cameron said that Britain's economic recovery will take longer than expected, and the reduction of the deficit will be a key aspect to stimulate growth. He also noted that the reduction in interest rates is the main tool for improving the picture on the labor market.

Germany alloted E1.17bln of 0.1% Apr 2023 Bundei issue Wednesday at an average yield of -0.38% (-0.27%) and a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.5 times (1.9).

EUR/USD

Offers    $1.2990/000, $1.2960/65, $1.2930, $1.2885/900

Bids $1.2850, $1.2820-00, $1.2760/50

European stocks declined for a third day as investors speculated that economic fundamentals don’t justify current stock valuations near their highest since 2010.

Also some disappointment was the fact that the Ministry of Finance at a meeting of Europe rescue program was not discussed in Spain due to the fact that the country sees its position in the financial markets as a rather favorable. According to the IMF report, Spain has become the country with the greatest economy in the euro zone program in 2012-2013, and at the same time one of the states, which marked the largest increase in total debt of weaker growth.

Anheuser-Busch InBev NV tumbled the most in a month after a report that the U.S. may block its $20 billion takeover of Mexico’s Grupo Modelo SAB.

Man Group Plc rallied 4 percent after U.K. newspapers speculated the world’s biggest publicly traded hedge-fund firm may be a takeover target.

FTSE 100 5,779.53 -30.72 -0.53%

CAC 40 3,368.49 -14.29 -0.42%

DAX 7,205.67 -28.86 -0.40%

Italy sold E11.0bln in 3-/12-mth BOTs

- E3.0bln 3-month BOT, avg yield 0.765% (0.700%), cover 2.79 (2.25)

- E8.0bln 12-month BOT, avg yield 1.941% (1.692%), cover 1.77 (1.65)

EUR/USD $1.2880, $1.2900, $1.3000, $1.3150

USD/JPY Y78.25, Y78.55, Y78.60, Y79.00

EUR/JPY Y100.00, Y99.95

GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6050

USD/CHF Chf0.9375, Chf0.9350

AUD/USD $1.0115, $1.0150, $1.0250

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index heading for a one-month low, on concern China’s economic slowdown and its territorial dispute with Japan are weighing on corporate earnings.

Nikkei 225 8,596.23 -173.36 -1.98%

S&P/ASX 200 4,490.7 -14.65 -0.33%

Shanghai Composite 2,117.46 +2.23 +0.11%

Toyota Motor Corp. slipped 2.3 percent, pacing declines among Japanese carmakers that reported a slump in China sales.

Steel & Tube Holdings Ltd. tumbled 8.3 percent in Wellington after iron-ore producer Arrium Ltd. sold its entire 50.3 percent stake in its New Zealand unit at a discount.

Yesterday the euro fell against most major currencies, as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the common currency bloc, there are risks associated with financial instability.

The yen rose against the euro for a second day after the International Monetary Fund said that the economy of the region will fall by more than predicted earlier this year.

Sterling fell against the dollar after data showed that the level of production in the UK fell more than expected.

European currency continued to fall after German Chancellor Angela Merkel met in Athens with Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras.

The Australian dollar rose to almost three-month low, which it reached on speculation that China, which is the largest trading partner of the country to resort to further stimulate the economy.

The Swiss currency weakened against most major currencies after the State Street Corp (STT) and Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK) said they would charge to investors who hold their assets in Danish kroner and Swiss francs.

State Street will apply negative interest rates at 0.75% per annum with effect from 1 November for the crown, and a separate fee for the Franks. This means that the fund managers, insurance companies and pension funds have to pay the bank for the deposit of their funds in the accounts.

Asian stocks outside Japan advanced, led by Chinese banks and raw-material producers after crude oil and copper futures rebounded. Japanese stocks fell as markets reopened after a public holiday. The world economy will expand 3.3 percent this year, the slowest pace since the 2009 recession, and 3.6 percent next year, the International Monetary Fund said today. That compares with July predictions of 3.5 percent in 2012 and 3.9 percent in 2013. The Washington-based lender now sees “alarmingly high” risks of a steeper slowdown.

Nikkei 225 8,769.59 -93.71 -1.06%

S&P/ASX 200 4,505.3 +23.44 +0.52%

Shanghai Composite 2,112.73 +38.31 +1.85%

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s No. 1 mining company and Australia’s biggest oil producer, gained 0.7 percent in Sydney.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. rose 2.2 percent in Hong Kong, pacing gains among Chinese lenders.

HTC Corp. tumbled 7 percent in Taipei after Asia’s No. 2 smartphone maker posted a record decline in quarterly profit.

00:00 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks

Change % Change Last

Oil 92.19 -0.20 -0.22%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,769.59 -93.71 -1.06%

S&P/ASX 200 4,505.3 +23.44 +0.52%

Shanghai Composite 2,112.73 +38.31 +1.85%

FTSE 100 5,803.2 -38.54 -0.66%

CAC 40 3,382.25 -24.28 -0.71%

DAX 7,231.16 -60.05 -0.82%

Dow 13,473.91 -109.74 -0.81%

Nasdaq 3,065.02 -47.33 -1.52%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2883 -0,64%

GBP/USD $1,6002 -0,11%

USD/CHF Chf0,9403 +0,76%

USD/JPY Y78,25 -0,06%

EUR/JPY Y100,81 -0,71%

GBP/JPY Y125,22 -0,18%

AUD/USD $1,0207 +0,16%

NZD/USD $0,8173 -0,24%

00:00 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks -

04:00 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks -

06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m August +0.2% +0.1%

06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m August -3.1% -4.2%

14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories August +0.7% +0.4%

18:00 U.S. Fed's Beige Book October

18:45 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y August +1.7% -4.6%