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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 15-10-2012
The yen weakened against all 16 most-traded counterparts after a report showed that U.S. retail sales in September rose more than expected, which reduced the demand for safe assets. Sales increased by 1.1% m / m in August from a revised value of 1.2% m / m, which was the highest since October 2010. Analysts had forecast an increase of 0.8%.
The euro was little changed against the dollar at a time when data showed that manufacturing activity index of the New York Fed Empire State shows decline in activity for the third month in a row. At the same time, in August, the growth of business inventories in the U.S. has slowed, suggesting that the sudden rise of sales begins to contribute to the devastation of accumulated reserves.
The shared currency touched a one-week high against the yen after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said a Greek default “will not happen.” In addition, Schaeuble urged central banks to monitor the inflation risks associated with excess liquidity. The Minister stressed that we should not forget that the excess liquidity was one of the causes of the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
The focus of market participants summit of EU leaders to be held on 18-19 October in Brussels, which will discuss the problem of possible request for assistance from Spain and providing aid to Greece.
Pound earlier fell against the euro on expectations that inflation in the UK slowed in the last month. The annual rate of inflation in the UK is forecast down to 2.2% in September from 2.5% in August. But is it really so we will know tomorrow after the publication of official data.
Predicts growth in 2012 at 2%
PCE inflation forecast in this and next year is 2%
The outlook for unemployment 8% in 2012 and 7% in 2013
Inflation forecasts are not cause great anxiety
It's reasonable to expect that the unemployment rate will decline slightly
Europe in recession
The elimination of the European crisis will take many years
European stocks climbed amid an increase in mergers-and-acquisition activity and as a U.S. report showed retail sales rose more than forecast in September.
Today’s U.S data showed retail sales climbed 1.1 percent in September, beating the median economist forecast for a 0.8 percent gain. That followed a revised 1.2 percent increase in August, the Commerce Department figures showed today
National benchmark indexes gained in 15 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2 percent, France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.9 percent, while Germany’s DAX advanced 0.4 percent.
Orkla gained 3.4 percent to 46.75 kroner after the company and Norsk Hydro agreed to combine units to provide aluminum profiles, building systems and tubing in North America and Europe.
Douglas jumped 8.1 percent to 37.62 euros, the biggest increase since Jan. 12, after Advent made an offer of 38 euros per share for the German cosmetics retailer via investment vehicle Beauty Holding Three AG.
Hennes & Mauritz AB gained 2 percent to 233.8 kronor after Europe’s second-largest clothing retailer reported a 15 percent increase in total sales for September. Like-for-like sales climbed 6 percent.
Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, slipped 1.6 percent to 2,973.5 pence after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its 12-month estimate on copper prices by 11 percent on concern demand from China will slow.
Anglo American Plc fell 2 percent to 1,788.5 pence, while Bumi Plc tumbled 12 percent to 245.3 pence.
Oil fell for a second day in New York as commodities plunged on concern that the global economy is weakening, reducing demand for raw materials.
Futures tumbled as much as 2.3 percent and gold dropped to a two-week low after a manufacturing index in the New York region contracted for a third straight month in October. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index missed analysts’ expectations. It rose to minus 6.2 in October. The median forecast called for a gain to minus 4. The figure was minus 10.4 in September, the lowest level since April 2009. The index covers New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
The European Union tightened sanctions today on Iran in a bid to persuade Tehran to permit more international scrutiny of its nuclear program and avert a possible military conflict.
Crude oil for November delivery fell to $89.79, the lowest level since Oct. 9. Prices are down 8.8 percent this year.
Brent oil for November settlement slipped 68 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $113.94 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Gold fell the most in New York in more than three months amid concern that the global economy is slowing and as traders awaited the outcome of the tomorrow’s U.S. presidential debate.
In addition, negative connected with the situation in Europe because of the uncertainty of an appeal for international financial assistance of Spain and fears that the summit this week the European politicians will not be able to find solutions to the debt crisis.
The summit of political leaders of the European Union (EU) will be held October 18-19.
Against this background, the Chinese government published on Saturday data showing that China's exports to the EU dropped the fourth month in a row - by 10.7% in September.
October futures price of gold on the COMEX fell $ 23.70 today and now is 1733.20 an ounce.
EUR/USD $1.2895, $1.2900, $1.2925, $1.2970, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100
GBP/USD $1.6150
AUD/USD $1.0100, $1.0200, $1.0250
EUR/JPY Y101.00
USD/CHF chf0.9525
NZD/USD nz$0.8200
U.S. stock futures rose as American retail sales and Citigroup Inc. (C)’s earnings topped estimates.
Global stocks:
Nikkei 8,577.93 +43.81 +0.51%
Hang Seng 21,148.25 +11.82 +0.06%
Shanghai Composite 2,098.7 -6.23 -0.30%
FTSE 5,815.79 +22.47 +0.39%
CAC 3,427.47 +38.39 +1.13%
DAX 7,280.7 +48.21 +0.67%
Crude oil $91.75 -0,11%
Gold $1744.50 -0.86%
IBM (IBM) Stifel Nicolaus Reiterated Buy, target raised from $221 to $243
Google (GOOG) Oppenheimer Reiterated Outperform, target raised from $752 to $800
00:30 Australia Home Loans August -0.7% +1.4% +1.8%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) September +4.3% +4.7%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) September +6.4% +14.4%
01:30 China CPI y/y September +2.0% +1.9% +1.9%
01:30 China PPI y/y September -3.5% -3.4% -3.6%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) August -1.3% -1.3% -1.6%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) August -4.3% -4.6%
07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m September +0.5% +0.3% +0.3%
07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y September -0.1% +0.1% +0.3%
The euro rose against the dollar ahead of key events for the European market, which is expected this week. Investors also continue to focus on the Spanish crisis. The single currency rose to $ 1.2980 ahead of the EU summit, which will take place on Thursday, and the auction of Spanish bonds at the end of the week and the local Spanish elections on Sunday.
Risk appetite remains weak despite positive signs of economic recovery in China, after the People's Bank of China published data on the trade at the weekend, which recorded a growth of exports to the U.S., Japan, and Asia.
The Australian dollar traded higher against the U.S. currency on the eve of publication of minutes of meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which will be presented tomorrow. Yen weakened for a third day against the dollar and the euro in the run-up report from the U.S., which should clarify the situation with the level of retail sales, which is expected to have increased in September. Against this background, there was a decrease in demand for the Japanese currency safe.
The yen fell against all but one of its 16 major counterparts as European stocks rose, boosting investor appetite for higher-yielding assets.
The euro strengthened to one-week high against the yen after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the Greek sovereign debt default will not.
The pound fell against the euro on expectations that inflation in the UK slowed in the last month. The annual rate of inflation in the UK is forecast down to 2.2% in September from 2.5% in August. But is it really so we will know tomorrow after the publication of official data.
EUR/USD: pair rose to a new intraday high of $ 1.2980
GBP/USD: pair rose to $ 1.6078, approaching to the maximum of the day, and then decreased slightly
USD/JPY: the pair grown to Y78.88, while setting a new high
At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will be published data on Retail Sales, Retail Sales excluding auto sales, the change in volume of retail trade sales, excluding cars and fuel for September. At the same time released Empire Manufacturing production index for October. At 13:00 GMT, Canada declared the change in our sales in the secondary market in September. At 14:00 GMT the U.S. are data on changes in stocks in commercial warehouses for August. At 14:30 GMT in Canada will be presented to the expectations of the indicator in the credit and financial institutions, according to the Bank of Canada and the light of the expected growth in trade (Review sentiment in the business environment, the Bank of Canada) for the third quarter. Finish the day at 21:45 GMT New Zealand data on the consumer price index for the third quarter
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3050, $1.3035/40, $1.2990/000, $1.2980
Bids $1.2905/00, $1.2875/70, $1.2855/45, $1.2820-00
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6140/60, $1.6120/25, $1.6095/00, $1.6090
Bids $1.6005/00, $1.5985/75, $1.5950/40, $1.5925/10
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0320, $1.0300, $1.0250
Bids $1.0205/00, $1.0170, $1.0150, $1.0100, $1.0080
EUR/JPY
Offers Y102.80, Y102.50, Y102.20
Bids Y101.40, Y101.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.50, Y79.00, Y78.80
Bids Y78.10, Y78.00, Y77.95/90
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8102, stg0.8090, stg0.8080
Bids stg0.8025/20, stg0.8005-995, stg0.7980/75
Stock indexes in Europe have responded to the growth of data on U.S. retail price indices. According to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) growth of the U.S. economy should gradually increase during the next year, while the housing market continues to improve. However, the overall pace of economic recovery will continue to be too low in order to reduce unemployment.
In Greek, there is no question of certain achievements, but it is likely that Greece will receive additional time for fiscal reform. This was stated by Commissioner Rehn.
At the moment:
FTSE 100 5,824.29 +30.97 +0.53%
CAC 40 3,429.35 +40.27 +1.19%
DAX 7,293.83 +61.34 +0.85%
Orkla ASA shares grew by 2.%. Quotes of Norsk Hydro ASA gained 1.6% after the company agreed to a merger. Hennes & Mauritz AB gained 1.3% after the clothing retailer reported an increase in sales. Paper Douglas Holding AG jumped 6.3% after the rumors about Mark that Advent International Corp is preparing a takeover offer for the company.
EUR/USD $1.2895, $1.2900, $1.2925, $1.2970, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100
GBP/USD $1.6150
AUD/USD $1.0100, $1.0200, $1.0250
EUR/JPY Y101.00
USD/CHF chf0.9525
NZD/USD nz$0.8200
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as concern that a global economic slowdown is weighing on earnings was offset by China reporting better-than-expected exports and the slowest inflation rate in two years.
Nikkei 225 8,577.93 +43.81 +0.51%
S&P/ASX 200 4,483.4 -3.18 -0.07%
Shanghai Composite 2,090.81 -14.12 -0.67%
ZTE Corp., China’s second-largest maker of telephone equipment, plunged 15 percent after saying it expects a third- quarter loss.
Samsung Electronics Co., which gets 28 percent of its revenue in China, added 1 percent in Seoul.
Renesas Electronics Corp., the world’s largest microcontroller maker, jumped 14 percent in Tokyo after people familiar with the matter said it may be acquired.
Softbank Corp. dropped 4.1 percent as three people familiar with the talks said Japan’s third-largest mobile-phone company is close to an agreement to buy a 70 percent stake in Sprint Nextel Corp.
On Friday the euro rose for a second day against the dollar on speculation that Spain is close to what will request financial assistance. Also, the euro rose as the EU statistical office in Luxembourg said that industrial production in the eurozone unexpectedly increased in August by 0.6%.
Later, the single currency fell as Reuters reported that the European Stability Mechanism is not enough money to rescue Spain if the country asks for help before the end of the year. However, analysts say that the fund has the right to collect the money from the sale of fixed income securities.
Dollar rose after the published data showed that consumer sentiment index jumped to 83.1 from the final level of the value in September - 78.3. As it became known, the October index is the highest since September 2007.
The Australian dollar fell against all 16 most-traded currencies amid falling stock markets in the U.S. and Europe.
The yen fell against the dollar amid signs of U.S. economic recovery, reducing demand for safe-haven.
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for its first gain this week, after U.S. jobless claims fell more than estimated and China and Japan agreed to hold talks over a territorial dispute that has disrupted trade.
Nikkei 225 8,534.12 -12.66 -0.15%
S&P/ASX 200 4,486.6 +3.07 +0.07%
Shanghai Composite 2,104.93 +2.06 +0.10%
Toyota Motor Corp., a Japanese carmaker whose sales in China slumped last month after rioters torched dealerships in protests over disputed islands, added 1.3 percent.
China Cosco Holdings Co. climbed 5 percent, leading Chinese shipping companies higher, after haulage rates for commodities rose.
Softbank Corp. fell 16 percent after Japan’s third-largest phone operator said it’s in talks to invest in Sprint Nextel Corp.
European stocks declined for the fourth time in five days as International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said global growth is not fast enough to curb unemployment, and Chinese new lending missed estimates, outweighing better-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence data.
Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA) slid 6.1 percent as Chief Executive Officer Ton Buechner extended his leave from the company. MAN SE (MAN) fell 3.3 percent after it said 2013 will be tougher than this year. Standard Chartered Plc and Axa SA (CS) climbed as Deutsche Bank AG raised its rating for the banking and insurance sectors.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.5 percent to 269.43 at the close of trading. The measure lost 1.7 percent this week as the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts and European Union leaders met to discuss the region’s debt crisis.
Stocks briefly pared losses after data showed confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly jumped in October to the highest level since before the recession began five years ago.
National benchmark indexes fell in 13 of the 18 western European (SXXP) markets.
FTSE 100 5,803.64 -26.11 -0.45% CAC 40 3,399.21 -14.51 -0.43% DAX 7,251.42 -30.28 -0.42%
Akzo Nobel, the world’s largest paint maker, fell 6.1 percent to 42.08 euros, its biggest drop in more than a year. The company’s supervisory board will meet on Oct. 17 to discuss the health situation of Buechner, who took leave last month, citing fatigue, and was expected to return in the first half of October.
MAN fell 3.3 percent to 75 euros. The truckmaker controlled by Volkswagen AG (VOW) said next year will be tougher than 2012 as orders in the third quarter fell more than normal for the season.
Spectris Plc (SXS), a maker of production-testing gears, slid the most in more than a year, falling 6.7 percent to 1,549 pence after sector peer Morgan Crucible Co. said it will shut down plants in Europe to offset a greater-than-expected drop in revenue.
Lanxess AG (LXS), a German chemical maker, retreated 4.4 percent to 60.21 euros. Credit Suisse Group AG downgraded the stock to underperform, similar to a sell rating, from neutral.
Saipem SpA (SPM), the Milan-based oil services contractor, declined 5.6 percent to 35.21 euros. The stock was cut to neutral from buy at Nomura Holdings Inc.
Swedbank AB (SWEDA) dropped 2.6 percent to 119.90 kronor. The stock was cut to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank.
Software AG (SOW), the German infrastructure software provider, surged 12 percent, the most in a year, to 30.35 euros after it confirmed its full-year forecast and said it expects growth in license sales to continue in the fourth-quarter.
Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Co. (EEEK) advanced 7 percent to 16.75 euros. The stock was upgraded to overweight, meaning investors should buy the shares, from neutral at JPMorgan after it announced plans yesterday to move its main stock listing from Athens to London.
Trading started in a small plus on positive quarterly report from JPMorgan (JPM), but in spite of this major U.S. stock indices ended the session slightly below zero. For the week the index DOW fell 2,07%, Nasdaq fell 2,94%, S & P500 lost 2.21%.
However, despite strong quarterly figures from JPM, the market remains negative expectations for the current season, reports in general.
Restrained growth indices fall on the eve of his company AMD forecast revenue for the third quarter, it is now expected to fall by 10% q / q, previously forecasted at 4% - 2% q / q.
Optimistic market participants did not pay the published data on the index of consumer confidence from the Reuters / Michigan. According to preliminary data, the value of the index in October reached the highest level since September 2007, well above the average forecast: 83.1 vs. 7739 and the value of 78.3 in August.
DOW index components exhibit predominantly negative dynamics. More than the others fell in the share price Bank of America (BAC, -2.36%). Maximum growth stocks show Boeing (BA, +1.38%).
Most of the sectors are in the red. The maximum loss is the financial sector (-1.0%). Consumer goods, industrial goods sector and the service sector are in the zero mark.
At the close:
Dow +2.38 13,328.77 +0.02%
Nasdaq -5.30 3,044.11 -0.17%
S & P -4.25 1,428.59 -0.30%
00:30 Australia Home Loans August -1.0% +1.4% +1.0%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) September +3.6% +4.7%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) September +6.4% +14.4%
01:30 China CPI y/y September +2.0% +1.9% +1.9%
01:30 China PPI y/y September -3.5% -3.4% -3.6%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) August -1.3% -1.3% -1.6%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) August -4.3% -4.6%
The euro weakened as concern that growth and sentiment in the 17-nation region is faltering overshadowed prospects that a leaders’ meeting this week will lead to solutions to the debt crisis. EU leaders will meet in Brussels on Oct. 18-19 as Greece seeks to justify renewed aid and Spain holds out on tapping a 500-billion ($645.4 billion) permanent rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism. The euro fell versus most of its major peers amid uncertainty over whether Spain will seek a bailout and before a report forecast to show investor confidence weakened in Germany, the region’s biggest economy. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research will probably say its index of expectations among German investors and analysts was at minus 14.9 this month from minus 18.2 in September, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. ZEW is due to release the figures tomorrow, and its gauge for current conditions dropped to 11.8 in October from 12.6 in the previous period, analysts predicted.
The Australian dollar dropped before the Reserve Bank releases tomorrow minutes of its October meeting, while its New Zealand counterpart slid after a report showed services shrank. Bank of New Zealand Ltd. and Business New Zealand said today that their Performance of Services Index fell to 49.6 in September. It was the first time since October 2009 that the gauge was below 50, the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.2900.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to the floor of a figure to $1.6025.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y78.60, updating week’s high.
At 1515GMT, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy are to speak at the opening conference of Single Market Week, in Brussels. On the other side of the Atlantic, the US retail sales data for September are released at 1230GMT. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.8% in September after sharp gains in the previous two months. Also at 1230GMT, the U.S. NY Fed Empire State Survey is released. The Index is expected to rise to a reading of -4.0 in October after falling sharply in both August and September to levels below the breakeven point. Its a heavy day fro Fed speak, starting at 1245GMT, when New York Federal Reserve Bank Pres. William Dudley speaks to the 54th Annual NABE meeting on the "Intersection Between Finance and Real Activity." At 1400GMT, the September Business Inventories data is due. Fed speakers continue at 1645GMT, when Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Pres. Jeffrey Lacker speaks to business and government leaders in Roanoke, Va., on the topic of "Economic Outlook, October 2012." At 1710GMT, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Pres. James Bullard speaks to the 3rd Annual Economic Forum of the Missouri Council on Economic Education on the topic of the "U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy," and answering questions from the audience and the media. Lastly, at 0030GMT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Pres. John Williams speaks to the Financial Women's Association on "A rospective on the Economy," after which he answers questions from the audience.
00:30 Australia Home Loans August -1.0% +1.4% +1.0%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) September +3.6% +4.7%
00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) September +6.4% +14.4%
01:30 China CPI y/y September +2.0% +1.9% +1.9%
01:30 China PPI y/y September -3.5% -3.4% -3.6%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) August -1.3% -1.3%
04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) August -4.3%
07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m September +0.5% +0.3%
07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y September -0.1% +0.1%
12:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak -
12:30 U.S. Retail sales September +0.9% +0.7%
12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto September +0.8% +0.6%
12:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index October -10.41 -4.50
14:00 U.S. Business inventories August +0.8% +0.5%
14:30 Canada Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Quarter III -10.8
14:30 Canada Bank of Canada business outlook future sales Quarter III 15 13.25
19:20 Canada BOC Gov Carney Speaks -
21:45 New Zealand CPI, q/q Quarter III +0.3% +0.5%
21:45 New Zealand CPI, y/y Quarter III +1.0% +1.0%
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