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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 16-10-2012
The euro rose above $1.30 for the first time in a week amid speculation that Spain is moving toward asking for financial assistance, reducing concern the region’s debt crisis is worsening.
The 17-nation currency strengthened for a fourth day versus the yen after Germany was said by two senior coalition lawmakers to be open to providing Spain a precautionary credit line. Comments by Michael Meister, a deputy caucus leader of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc, and Norbert Barthle, her party’s budget spokesman, indicate a rolling back of German resistance to a full sovereign bailout for Spain. Schaeuble cautioned Spain against seeking aid on top of its bank bailout as recently as last month.
The dollar and the yen fell against most of their major counterparts as U.S. industrial production rose more than forecast last month, damping demand for the safest assets. Output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities rose 0.4 percent after a 1.4 percent decline in August that was the biggest since March 2009, the Federal Reserve reported today in Washington.
The Canadian dollar fell against most major peers after Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney suggested he may reduce his economic outlook and delay raising policy interest rates.
The pound fell against the euro, as inflation in the UK slowed to the lowest level in nearly three years. It is learned that consumer prices in the UK rose by 2.2% compared to the previous year, and an increase of 2.5% in August. Thus, the annual dynamics was the lowest since 2009, which was in line with analysts' forecasts.
European stocks rose as two German lawmakers said the country is open to Spain seeking a precautionary credit line from Europe’s rescue fund, and German investor confidence advanced more than expected in October.
Germany is open to Spain seeking a precautionary credit line from Europe’s rescue fund, two senior coalition lawmakers said. The comments by Michael Meister, a deputy caucus leader of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc, and Norbert Barthle, her party’s budget spokesman, signal a reversal of Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble’s position that Germany is opposed to a full sovereign bailout for Spain.
FTSE 100 5,870.54 +64.93 +1.12%, CAC 40 3,500.94 +80.66 +2.36%, DAX 7,376.27 +115.02 +1.58%
BNP Paribas SA and Deutsche Bank AG paced gains among banking shares. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank gained 5.1 percent to 34.60 euros and 4.1 percent to 1.56 euros, respectively.
Rio Tinto gained 2.7 percent to 3,053 pence. The company reported a 6 percent increase in third-quarter iron-ore output to 52.6 million metric tons, beating the mean analyst estimate of 50.65 million tons. Iron-ore output from Australia’s Pilbara region rose to a quarterly record.
GKN Plc fell 3.3 percent to 205 pence after the maker of car drive shafts warned that weakening demand in some European automotive and industrial markets will affect fourth- quarter profit.
Oil fluctuated in New York on projections that U.S. crude stockpiles climbed for a second week and as two German lawmakers said the country is open to Spain seeking a precautionary credit line.
Futures dropped as much as 0.6 percent before a report tomorrow that may show U.S. supplies rose as output surged. Officials in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic coalition indicated a rolling back of German resistance to a full Spanish bailout.
An Energy Department report will show that U.S. crude oil inventories rose 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the median of analyst.
Germany is signaling more willingness to cooperate with its European Union partners on measures to staunch the debt crisis before EU leaders meet in Brussels on Oct. 18-19.
Crude oil for November delivery traded between $91.30 and $92.32 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Brent oil for November settlement dropped $1.20, or 1 percent, to $114.60 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent decreased more than WTI as the restart of the Buzzard oil field in the North Sea was delayed and loadings were rescheduled.
Gold prices are rising due to the weakening of the dollar and the rise in equity markets.
Euro is rising against the dollar on expectations that Spain will soon file an application for financial assistance. Spain's appeal for financial assistance from the European Central Bank will begin purchasing Spanish government bonds to reduce its borrowing costs. The officials said the euro zone, Spain applies for assistance in November and it will be considered along with the revised program of lending and issuance of Greek Cyprus.
On Monday, gold fell more than 1% as strong macroeconomic U.S. led investors to doubt the introduction of new Federal Reserve stimulus.
Stocks of gold-ETFs ETF, monitored Reuters on Monday declined to 213,228 ounces due to the outflow of the largest ETF SPDR Gold Trust.
October futures price of gold on COMEX rose today at $ 6.50 and is now 1744.40 an ounce.
EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2925, $1.2950, $1.3040, $1.3045, $1.3050
GBP/USD $1.5890, $1.6190
AUD/USD $1.0150, $1.0200
EUR/JPY Y100.00
NZD/USD nz$0.8190
EUR/GBP stg0.8055
USD/JPY Y79.40
U.S. stock-index futures advanced amid better-than-forecast earnings and data that showed that industrial production increased last month more than expected.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,701.31 +123.38 +1.44%
Hang Seng 21,207.07 +58.82 +0.28%
Shanghai Composite 2,098.81 +0.11 +0.01%
FTSE 5,857.04 +51.43 +0.89%
CAC 3,464.61 +44.33 +1.30%
DAX 7,357.22 +95.97 +1.32%
Crude oil $92.10 +0,27%
Gold $1743.10 +0.32%
Data
00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes -
00:30 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m September +0.5% +0.4% +0.4%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y September +2.5% +2.2% +2.2%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y September +2.1% +2.1% +2.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m September +0.4% +0.5% +0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y September +2.9% +2.6% +2.6%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) September +1.9% 0.0% -0.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) September +1.4% -0.6% -1.2%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) September +0.5% +0.3% +0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) September +1.1% +2.2% +2.5%
08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y September +2.9% +2.6% +2.6%
09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment October -18.2 -14.6 -11.5
09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment October -3.8 -1.1 -1.4
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI September +0.4% +0.7% +0.7%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (finally) September +2.7% +2.7% +2.6%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y September +1.5% +1.6% +1.5%
09:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. August 7.2 8.4 9.9
09:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter October
The euro rose above $ 1.30 for the first time in a week, as the index of sentiment in the business environment in Germany rose more than economists forecast and on speculation that Spain may apply for financial assistance. ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic development for the six months rose to -11.5 from -18.2 level in September. Economists forecast that the growth was -14.9 level.
The single currency strengthened for a fourth day against the yen, as the Financial Times reported that Spain found a suitable form to apply for financial aid. The dollar and yen fell against most of its major competitors, before the U.S. will present data on the consumer price index and industrial production, which is expected to rise, causing a damping demand for safer assets.
The pound fell against the euro, as the level of inflation in the UK slowed lowest levels in nearly three years. It is learned that consumer prices in the UK rose by 2.2% compared to the previous year, and an increase of 2.5% in August.
The dollar index (DXY), which measures the currency against the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona, fell by 0.2% to 79.573.
Also, market participants are waiting for data from the Ministry of Commerce on the level of housing starts, which will be presented tomorrow, and most likely will show growth.
EUR/USD: the pair grown on a figure from the beginning of the present day and is now trading near the maximum
GBP/USD: pair has grown substantially, setting maximum value of $ 1.6121, near which is now
USD/JPY: the pair is trading with an increase of the level of the maximum values of the day
At 12:30 GMT, Canada will announce the amount of transactions with foreign securities and changes in the volume of industrial supplies in August. At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will release the consumer price index, consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy, the Consumer Price Index (not seasonally adjusted), the main consumer price index for September. At 13:00 GMT the U.S. will report for a change in net purchases of long-term U.S. securities by foreign investors, total net purchases of U.S. securities by foreign investors in August. At 13:15 GMT the U.S. will release capacity utilization for September and will announce the change in the volume of industrial production in September. At 20:30 GMT the U.S. to account for changes in the volume of crude oil, according to the API for October. Finish the day at 23:30 GMT Australia output index of leading economic indicators from the Melbourne Institute in August.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3050, $1.3035/40, $1.3015
Bids $1.2950/40, $1.2920, $1.2900
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6150, $1.6120/25
Bids $1.6025/20, $1.6005/00, $1.5985/75
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0350, $1.0320, $1.0300
Bids $1.0245/40, $1.0220, $1.0205/00, $1.0170, $1.0150
EUR/JPY
Offers Y103.50, Y103.20, Y103.00
Bids Y102.10/00, Y101.80, Y101.55/50, Y101.40
USD/JPY
Offers Y79.80, Y79.50, Y79.00
Bids Y78.70/65, Y78.50, Y78.10, Y78.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8150, stg0.8102, stg0.8090
Bids stg0.8040, stg0.8025/20, stg0.8005-995, stg0.7980/75
European stock markets have reacted to the increasing data on the index of business sentiment in Germany from the environment institute ZEW, index is in negative territory, but above the predicted level (-11.5 -14.6 forecast).
Also due to the decline in yield at the auction of state bonds of Spain, held today.
International rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the ratings of 11 Spanish banks and short-term ratings of four financial institutions, and also placed in the list to review downward the ratings of six more banks.
The course of trading today, may stat data from the U.S..
FTSE 100 5,834.12 +28.51 +0.49%
CAC 40 3,431.55 +11.27 +0.33%
DAX 7,302.1 +40.85 +0.56%
Shares of Rio Tinto Group gained 1.2% after the mining company has published data on the volume of iron ore in the third quarter, which were above analysts' forecasts. Paper GKN Plc declined by 3.6% due to a decrease in the forecast for sales in Europe.
EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2925, $1.2950, $1.3040, $1.3045, $1.3050
GBP/USD $1.5890, $1.6190
AUD/USD $1.0150, $1.0200
EUR/JPY Y100.00
NZD/USD nz$0.8190
EUR/GBP stg0.8055
USD/JPY Y79.40
Sold E4.864bln vs target E3.5-E4.5bln
Sold 12-month Letra at avg yield 2.823% vs 2.835% prev
Sold 18-month Letra at avg yield 3.022% vs 3.072% prev
E3.4bln 12-month Letra; bid-to-cover 2.71 (2.03)
E1.463bln 18-month Letra; bid-to-cover 3.04 (3.56)
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for the biggest gain in two weeks, as exporters advanced after the U.S. reported better-than-expected retail sales. Asian banks followed gains among U.S. banks after Citigroup unexpectedly reported a third-quarter profit and a surge in bond-trading revenue. Financial shares accounted for 28 percent of the advance in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index today.
Nikkei 225 8,701.31 +123.38 +1.44%
S&P/ASX 200 4,491.5 +8.07 +0.18%
Shanghai Composite 2,095.19 -3.51 -0.17%
Samsung Electronics Co., which gets a fifth of its sales in Americas, rose 2.3 percent in Seoul.
Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan’s third-largest bank by market value, gained 1.6 percent, pacing gains among lenders after Citigroup Inc.’s profit beat estimates.
Softbank Corp. jumped 9.6 percent after Japan’s third-largest mobile-phone company agreed to acquire 70 percent of Sprint Nextel Corp. for $20.1 billion.
Yesterday the yen weakened against all 16 most-traded counterparts after a report showed that U.S. retail sales in September rose more than expected, which reduced the demand for safe assets. Sales increased by 1.1% m / m in August from a revised value of 1.2% m / m, which was the highest since October 2010. Analysts had forecast an increase of 0.8%.
The euro was little changed against the dollar at a time when data showed that manufacturing activity index of the New York Fed Empire State shows decline in activity for the third month in a row. At the same time, in August, the growth of business inventories in the U.S. has slowed, suggesting that the sudden rise of sales begins to contribute to the devastation of accumulated reserves.
The shared currency touched a one-week high against the yen after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said a Greek default “will not happen.” In addition, Schaeuble urged central banks to monitor the inflation risks associated with excess liquidity. The Minister stressed that we should not forget that the excess liquidity was one of the causes of the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
The focus of market participants summit of EU leaders to be held on 18-19 October in Brussels, which will discuss the problem of possible request for assistance from Spain and providing aid to Greece.
Pound earlier fell against the euro on expectations that inflation in the UK slowed in the last month. The annual rate of inflation in the UK is forecast down to 2.2% in September from 2.5% in August. But is it really so we will know after the publication of official data.
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as concern that a global economic slowdown is weighing on earnings was offset by China reporting better-than-expected exports and the slowest inflation rate in two years.
Nikkei 225 8,577.93 +43.81 +0.51%
S&P/ASX 200 4,483.4 -3.18 -0.07%
Shanghai Composite 2,090.81 -14.12 -0.67%
ZTE Corp., China’s second-largest maker of telephone equipment, plunged 15 percent after saying it expects a third- quarter loss.
Samsung Electronics Co., which gets 28 percent of its revenue in China, added 1 percent in Seoul.
Renesas Electronics Corp., the world’s largest microcontroller maker, jumped 14 percent in Tokyo after people familiar with the matter said it may be acquired.
Softbank Corp. dropped 4.1 percent as three people familiar with the talks said Japan’s third-largest mobile-phone company is close to an agreement to buy a 70 percent stake in Sprint Nextel Corp.
European stocks climbed amid an increase in mergers-and-acquisition activity and as a U.S. report showed retail sales rose more than forecast in September.
Today’s U.S data showed retail sales climbed 1.1 percent in September, beating the median economist forecast for a 0.8 percent gain. That followed a revised 1.2 percent increase in August, the Commerce Department figures showed today
National benchmark indexes gained in 15 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2 percent, France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.9 percent, while Germany’s DAX advanced 0.4 percent.
Orkla gained 3.4 percent to 46.75 kroner after the company and Norsk Hydro agreed to combine units to provide aluminum profiles, building systems and tubing in North America and Europe.
Douglas jumped 8.1 percent to 37.62 euros, the biggest increase since Jan. 12, after Advent made an offer of 38 euros per share for the German cosmetics retailer via investment vehicle Beauty Holding Three AG.
Hennes & Mauritz AB gained 2 percent to 233.8 kronor after Europe’s second-largest clothing retailer reported a 15 percent increase in total sales for September. Like-for-like sales climbed 6 percent.
Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, slipped 1.6 percent to 2,973.5 pence after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its 12-month estimate on copper prices by 11 percent on concern demand from China will slow.
Anglo American Plc fell 2 percent to 1,788.5 pence, while Bumi Plc tumbled 12 percent to 245.3 pence.
U.S. stocks were up against published data on retail sales, which are up to September rose by 1.1% vs. 0.7%, and the value for August at 0.9%.
Investors reacted positively to the quarterly financial report published by Citigroup. According to the report, the bank's profit in the 3rd quarter fell to $ 468 million or $ 0.15 per share, compared to $ 3.77 billion, or $ 1.23 a year earlier. At the same time, except for the one-off balance sheet items, profit was $ 1.06 per share, versus the average forecast of $ 0.99. Citigroup shares gained 5.4%.
Indexes are supported Commissioner Olli Rehn, who said that "the negotiations with Greece should be completed by mid-November," and it was said that Athens could be given more time to implement reforms. Rehn also said that he is confident in the ability of Spain to reform.
Some support was also provided indices released today data on inflation in China that support investors' hopes for new stimulus measures from the authorities of the country to support the national economy. Data released today registered a decline inflation in China in September to a level 1.9% y / y vs. 2.0% in August values. Reduce inflationary pressure allows the PBOC to continue to pump up the economy with liquidity in order to stimulate economic growth. However, it is worth noting that the new measures are likely to be taken no earlier than a month, when there will be a planned change of power in China.
Temporary pressure on the index was published data on the change in inventories, which are up to August rose 0.6% against expectations of 0.5% and the value for July at 0.8%.
Most of the components of the index showed an increase DOW. Against the background of the quarterly report Citi in the DOW index leading shares Bank of America (BAC, +3.40%). Fell more than the rest in the stock price AT & T (T, -1.11%).
All major sectors are in positive territory. Maximum growth was the health sector (+1.2%).
Manufacturer of tires and wheels for Titan International jumped 5.4% after analysts at Jefferies & Co upgraded the stock from "hold" to "buy."
At the close:
Dow 13,424 +95 +0.71%
Nasdaq 3,064 +20 +0.65%
S & P 500 +0.80% 1.440 11
00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes -
00:30 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -
The yen declined against most of its major peers as Asian stocks rose and before U.S. data forecast to show improvement in industrial production and housing starts, reducing demand for refuge assets. U.S. industrial production probably increased 0.2 percent in September from the previous month, when it fell 1.2 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Fed releases the figures today.
The Japanese currency slid for a fourth day to an almost one-month low against the greenback after Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said U.S. growth will pick up next year and push down unemployment.
Demand for the euro was supported before European Union leaders meet this week to discuss measures to contain the debt crisis. The 17-nation euro rose before EU leaders start a two-day summit in Brussels on Oct. 18 amid speculation Spain will ask for a financial bailout. The country is preparing to make request for a rescue and allow the European Central Bank to begin buying its debt, the Financial Times reported, citing an unidentified Spanish economy ministry official.
New Zealand’s dollar slid after data showed annual inflation was the slowest in more than 12 years. Consumer prices in New Zealand rose 0.8 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the country’s statistics bureau said in Wellington today. The result was the lowest since the fourth quarter of 1999.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.2950-75.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6060-85.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y78.90, updating monthly high.
Tuesday's calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the ACEA September new car registrations. Inflation data is expected on the Continent at 0900GMT, with the release of the EMU September final HICP (%yoy) Perhaps the main European release comes at 0900GMT when Germany's October ZEW survey will be available. In what is a first for the ONS, both UK September consumer and producer inflation data will be published at 0830GMT. At 1230GMT, the day's inflation theme continues with the release of the September Consumer Price Index. The September Industrial Production and Cap Utilization data will be released at 1315GMT. The last scheduled data for the day is released at 1400GMT, when the US October Housing Market Index numbers are expected.
Change % Change Last
Gold 1,739 -21 -1.18%
Oil 91.69 -0.17 -0.17%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,577.93 +43.81 +0.51%
S&P/ASX 200 4,483.4 -3.18 -0.07%
Shanghai Composite 2,090.81 -14.12 -0.67%
FTSE 100 5,805.61 +12.29 +0.21%
CAC 40 3,420.28 +31.20 +0.92%
DAX 7,261.25 +28.76 +0.40%
Dow 13,424 +95 +0.71%
Nasdaq 3,064 +20 +0.65%
S&P 500 1,440 +11 +0.80%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2945 -0,04%
GBP/USD $1,6071 +0,01%
USD/CHF Chf0,9333 -0,01%
USD/JPY Y78,69 +0,32%
EUR/JPY Y101,90 +0,29%
GBP/JPY Y126,46 +0,34%
AUD/USD $1,0250 +0,19%
NZD/USD $0,8159 -0,60%
USD/CAD C$0,9808 +0,08%00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes -
00:30 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m September +0.5% +0.4%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y September +2.5% +2.2%
08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y September +2.1% +2.1%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m September +0.4% +0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y September +2.9% +2.6%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) September +2.0% 0.0%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) September +1.4% -0.6%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) September +0.5% +0.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) September +2.2% +2.2%
08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y September +2.9% +2.6%
09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment October -18.2 -14.6
09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment October -3.8 -1.1
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI September +0.4% +0.7%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (finally) September +2.7% +2.7%
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y September +1.5% +1.6%
09:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. August 7.9 8.4
09:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter October
12:30 Canada Foreign investment in Canadian securities August 6.67 8.72
12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) August -1.5% +0.5%
12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m September +0.6% +0.4%
12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y September +1.7% +1.9%
12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m September +0.1% +0.2%
12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y September +1.9% +2.0%
13:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows August 67.0 45.3
13:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows August 73.7
13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) September -1.2% +0.3%
13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization September 78.2% 78.4%
14:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index October 40 41
23:30 Australia Leading Index August +0.4%
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