CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 19-10-2012

The euro declined for a second day against the dollar after Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said his nation doesn’t feel under any pressure to ask for a bailout, fueling concern the debt crisis will be prolonged. Rajoy said at an EU summit in Brussels that has made "significant progress" and showed the EU that will meet their obligations. He also said that his government will decide on the assistance based on the interests of Spain.

The 17-nation currency dropped for the first time in seven days versus the yen on speculation this week’s European Union summit in Brussels will fail to provide clarity on potential financial aid for Spain and the allocation of the next tranche of Greece.

At the same time, at the summit, it was decided to create a European system of banking supervision in 2013. Germany managed to convince the EU summit to delay the creation of a European system of banking supervision. The Heads of State and Government decided to implement the plan "for 2013." Previously, several countries insisted on establishing control on January 1 next year. Diplomatic sources say that banking supervision will be operational in early 2014 and spread to all of the 6,000 banks in the euro zone. The European Central Bank (ECB) will always give national regulatory authorities on the audit assignment of individual banks. However, if necessary, the ECB could itself supervise.

The pound gained against the euro after the U.K. budget deficit narrowed. In the UK in September, net debt of the public sector amounted to 10,732 billion pounds compared with an expected 11.0 billion pounds.

Canada’s dollar weakened to an eight-week low against its U.S. counterpart after September consumer prices data trailed forecasts. In September, the annual inflation rate in Canada remained at the previous level of 1.2%, leaving the Bank of Canada is less than the arguments in favor of maintaining the upward sentiment against interest rate decision which will be announced next Tuesday.

European stocks fell, snapping four days of gains, after yesterday rising to their highest valuation since 2010, and as European Union leaders failed to discuss further aid for Spain.

Leaders committed to their goal of establishing a euro-area bank supervisor by the end of the year. The EU will seek to agree on a framework that makes the ECB the main supervisor by Jan. 1, according to conclusions released early today after leaders met. The new system, intended to break the link between banks and governments at the root of the region’s financial crisis, will phase in over the next year and could cover all 6,000 euro-area banks by Jan. 1, 2014, a year later than initially targeted.

Still, the move doesn’t settle the question of when the European Stability Mechanism will be able to recapitalize banks directly. The plan calls for the supervisor to take charge of big banks and bailed-out institutions first, while also saying direct assistance requires “effective” supervision in place.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after the summit that it’s an open question whether European policy makers can meet the deadline they’d set hours earlier to establish a euro-area bank supervisor.

FTSE 100 5,896.15 -20.90 -0.35%, CAC 40 3,504.56 -30.62 -0.87%, DAX 7,380.64 -56.59 -0.76%

STMicroelectronics NV, Europe’s largest semiconductor maker, fell 3.5 percent to 4.78 euros as Banco Santander SA cut its price estimated on the shares to 5.20 euros from 6.75 euros.

Valeo SA advanced 3 percent to 35.95 euros. France’s second-largest car-parts maker said third-quarter revenue rose 6.8 percent to 2.84 billion euros from 2.66 billion euros a year earlier as demand from emerging markets offset a declining car market in Europe.

Carrefour SA gained 5.9 percent to 18.36 euros. Cencosud SA, Chile’s biggest retailer by sales, agreed to buy Carrefour’s Colombian unit for 2 billion euros including debt.

Oil fell as equities declined on weaker earnings reports and the dollar strengthened against the euro.

Prices declined as much as 1.4 percent and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) dropped for a second day after Microsoft Corp. and General Electric Co. posted sales that missed estimates. The euro weakened and the dollar gained on concern that the European debt crisis is worsening. Oil rose earlier as TransCanada Corp. shut the Keystone pipeline, disrupting crude flows to the U.S.

The S&P 500 fell as much as 1.2 percent. The euro retreated 0.4 percent after Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said his nation doesn’t feel that it’s under any pressure to ask for a bailout, fueling concern the debt crisis will be prolonged.

A weaker euro and stronger dollar reduce oil’s appeal as an investment alternative.

Crude for November delivery dropped to $89.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, prices touched $93.05, the highest level since Oct. 10. Futures have slipped 1 percent this week and are down 8 percent this year.

Brent for December settlement decreased $1.28, or 1.1 percent, to $111.14 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Pound during the American session was under intense pressure amid increasing risk aversion following the publication of weak data on the U.S. housing market and corporate profits. Stock indexes in both Europe and the United States moved into the red zone, but the pound broke $1.6030 support and accelerated decline, having gone below $ 1.6000.

GBP / USD has noted the recent low of $ 1.5995, and is now trading around $ 1.6003.

Immediate support is at $ 1.5975 and $ 1.5950, and resistance - at $ 1.6030 and $ 1.6065 (today's high and MA (200) for H1).

Gold cheaper against the dollar strengthening and fall in stock markets. The euro fell against the dollar because of the lack of news about the financial aid provided by Spain, and the stock markets down after publication of unexpectedly weak quarterly report Google.

Eurozone leaders have promised that the fund for the euro zone - the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) - will be able to make direct recapitalization of the banks, but only when it begins to operate a single banking supervisor. This will happen during 2013, but not in the early years, as the previously hoped EU leaders.

Market participants expect carefully planned for this weekend's regional elections in Spain. It is believed that for Madrid this election is a key obstacle in the way of to ask for help.

Released last week, the strong U.S. economic performance negatively impacted the gold market, causing investors to question the expansion of the Fed's stimulus.

Working gold mine KDC West in South Africa on Friday went to work, completing month strike, said the owner of the mine Gold Fields.

In anticipation of the weekend preparing gold closed the second week in a row down, which has not happened since May.

November futures price of gold on COMEX today dropped to $9.30 and is now $1735.80 an ounce.

The release of the report on existing home sales in the U.S. led to the further development of the decline in the pair EUR / USD. Price already noted at least in the area of ​​1.3020, and is preparing to end Friday trading down, but in general for the week remains in the green zone.

Already a decent growth rate existing home sales in August was revised to increase from 7.8% to 8.1%, $ 4.83 million, but the September sales fell 1.7% to $ 4.75 million. Result is almost coincided with the expectations of analysts.

EUR/USD $1.3015, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3175, $1.3195, $1.3200

GBP/USD $1.6050

AUD/USD $1.0225, 1.0350, $1.0380, $1.0400

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.10, Y79.25

EUR/JPY Y103.50

AUD/JPY Y81.10

AUD/NZD Nz$0.8100

U.S. stock futures fell as Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and General Electric Co. (GE) posted sales that missed estimates and euro-area leaders agreed on a banking regulation timetable.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  9,002.68 +19.82 +0.22%
Hang Seng 21,551.76 +33.05 +0.15%
Shanghai Composite 2,128.3 -3.39 -0.16%
FTSE  5,912.32 -4.73 -0.08%
CAC  3,519.93 -15.25 -0.43%
DAX 7,399.91 -37.32 -0.50%
Crude oil $92.53 +0,47%
Gold $1738.40 -0.36%

Google tgt to $800 from $850 at Citigroup;
BofA/Merrill downgrade Google from Buy to Neutral;
Oppenheimer downgrade Google from Outperform to Perform, tgt lowered from $800 to $765;
Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Google at Buy, tgt lowered from $830 to $820;
Verizon Communications was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Pacific Crest.

Data

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m August -0.6% +0.2% +0.1%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) September +0.5% +0.3% +0.3%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) September +1.6% +1.6% +1.7%

06:35 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks -

08:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln August 8.8 11.3 8.8

08:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit -

08:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln September 12.4 11.8 12.8

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3150, $1.3120, $1.3100

Bids $1.3020, $1.3000, $1.2980, $1.2950

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0500, $1.0450, $1.0420, $1.0400

Bids $1.0340, $1.0320, $1.0300

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6150, $1.6115/20, $1.6095/00, $1.6080

Bids $1.6025/20, $1.0605/00, $1.5980/75

EUR/JPY

Offers Y104.80, Y104.50, Y104.20, Y104.00

Bids Y103.20, Y103.00, Y102.80

USD/JPY

Offers Y80.00, Y79.80

Bids  Y79.20, Y79.05/00, Y78.85/80, Y78.70, Y78.65/60

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8280, stg0.8250, stg0.8180

Bids stg0.8120, stg0.8100, stg0.8085/80, stg0.8070

• At the summit, there has been significant progress in the EU integration

• I will ask for help if needed

• We will do what is in the interest of the Spaniards

• Still was no decision on the potential sources of assistance

• Direct recapitalization of the banks is not the main problem for Spain

• Plans to recapitalize EU banks

• Decision of EU leaders will boost confidence

• Need to carry out reforms, reduce deficit

• Germany's position on the integration of a "very constructive"

• We are still trying to establish a direct recapitalization of Spanish banks

• I never make decisions under pressure in his entire political career

• I do not give in to pressure to a request for assistance

• Did not discuss changing the target level of the budget deficit

• The general strike will not help the country and will not allow the economic problems

• Unions are concerned about the call for the general strike

Decline in European stock indexes reacted to the results of the EU summit. At the moment we know that the decision to establish a European system of banking supervision in 2013. The participants of the summit also discussed the situation in Greece.

Germany managed to convince the passing of the EU summit in Brussels to delay the creation of a European system of banking supervision. As reported on Friday, October 19, the agency AFP, the Heads of State and Government decided to implement the plan "for 2013." Previously, several countries insisted on establishing control on January 1 next year. Diplomatic sources say that banking supervision will be operational in early 2014 and spread to all of the 6,000 banks in the euro zone. The European Central Bank (ECB) will always give national regulatory authorities on the audit assignment of individual banks. However, if necessary, the ECB could itself supervise.

The issue of the EU commissioner for monetary policy "veto" at the meeting was not discussed. The suggestion German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, expanding the powers of the European commissioner, made several EU countries, including Italy.

The decision on the allocation of the next tranche of aid to Greece is not taken because the report is not ready "three"

Data for the euro area balance of payments in August seasonally adjusted was at 8.8mlrd the forecast 11.3 billion price index for September rose by +1.7% (forecast +1.6%).

FTSE 100 5,911.81 -5.24 -0.09%

CAC 40 3,520.85 -14.33 -0.41%

DAX 7,407.33 -29.90 -0.40% 

E3.4-E3.8bln tap of a 3-month BTF maturing Jan 17, 2013.

E1.4-E1.8bln new 6-month BTF maturing Apr 18, 2013.

EUR/USD $1.3015, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3175, $1.3195, $1.3200

GBP/USD $1.6050

AUD/USD $1.0225, 1.0350, $1.0380, $1.0400

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.10, Y79.25

EUR/JPY Y103.50

AUD/JPY Y81.10

AUD/NZD Nz$0.8100

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index headed for the first drop in four days, as worse-than-expected earnings results from Google Inc. and Microsoft Corp. weighed on technology shares.

Nikkei 225 9,002.68 +19.82 +0.22%

S&P/ASX 200 4,571.1 +11.67 +0.26%

Shanghai Composite 2,127.8 -3.89 -0.18%

Internet portal Yahoo Japan Corp. declined 2.7 percent in Tokyo.

Fanuc Corp., a Japanese maker of factory robots, increased 3.2 percent after manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded more than estimated.

• • Overseas economies have moved deeper into slowdown
  • Must watch downside risks to global economy
  • Japan's economic activity is leveling off more or less
  • Must watch if Japanese firms will postpone capex plans
  • Japan's economy likely to return to mild recovery path

Yesterday the yen slipped to the weakest level in almost two months versus the dollar as speculation that the Bank of Japan will boost stimulus measures sapped demand for the nation’s assets as a haven. This month, the Bank of Japan may disclose the assumption that in the next two financial years, he could not reach the target level of inflation at 1%. Later this month, the central bank will release updated economic forecasts for 2012/13., As well as the original forecasts for 2014 fiscal year. This publication is to show that the CPI excluding food does not make it to the 1%. The fall in prices accelerated in May, which increased the pressure on the central bank with respect to reverse deflation and stimulate economic growth. Experts predict that at the meeting of October 30 Bank of Japan newly expanded program of asset purchases.

The euro snapped a two-day gain versus the dollar as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the region’s debt crisis won’t be quickly solved. Market participants still do not expect that the summit will be taken any important decisions. Spain, as expected, will not make a request for assistance, at least until next month. In addition, the EU's leaders are unlikely to make a decision about whether to grant Greece the next tranche of aid. However, the euro was supported by the hope that in the coming weeks, Spain finally make concessions and ask for help, and the partners of Greece from the euro zone, in the end, to give the country more time to achieve target levels of budget deficits.

The U.S. dollar regained some lost ground after the release of U.S. economic data, will weaken investor confidence in the strength of the economic recovery. The dollar rose after a report according to which the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose more than expected. Meanwhile, the index of business activity Philadelphia Fed pointed to some weakness.

The pound rose against the dollar after the September retail sales in Britain were more than expected. Key indicator and the indicator excluding fuel reported an increase of 0.6% against expectations of 0.4%. In annual terms, the main index remained unchanged at 2.5%, while the indicator excluding fuel rose 2.9% vs. 2.1% and 2.4% respectively. 

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for its highest close in a month, after China’s economic growth matched economists’ estimates and U.S. housing starts jumped.

Nikkei 225 8,982.86 +176.31 +2.00%

S&P/ASX 200 4,559.4 +31.19 +0.69%

Shanghai Composite 2,132.3 +26.68 +1.27%

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. rose 2.1 percent in Hong Kong.

James Hardie Industries SE, a building-materials supplier that gets 67 percent of sales from the U.S., gained 2 percent in Sydney.

Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second- biggest oil producer, advanced 2.7 percent after boosting its output forecast.

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m August -0.6% +0.2% +0.1%

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,743 -10 -0.57%

Oil 92.04 -0.08 -0.09%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,982.86 +176.31 +2.00%

S&P/ASX 200 4,559.4 +31.19 +0.69%

Shanghai Composite 2,132.3 +26.68 +1.27%

FTSE 100 5,917.05 +6.14 +0.10%

CAC 40 3,535.18 +7.68 +0.22%

DAX 7,437.23 +42.68 +0.58%

Dow 13,549 -8 -0.06%

Nasdaq 3,073 -31 -1.00%

S&P 500 1,457 -4 -0.27% 

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3068 -0,35%

GBP/USD $1,6067 -0,44%

USD/CHF Chf0,9244 +0,23%

USD/JPY Y79,28 +0,32%

EUR/JPY Y103,61 -0,05%

GBP/JPY Y127,22 -0,24%

AUD/USD $1,0367 -0,06%

NZD/USD $0,8186 -0,37%

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m August -0.6% +0.2%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) September +0.5% +0.3%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) September +1.6% +1.6%

06:35 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks -

08:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln August 9.7 11.3

08:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit -

08:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln September 12.4 11.8

12:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m September +0.2% +0.3%

12:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y September +1.2% +1.2%

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, m/m September +0.3% +0.4%

12:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y September +1.6% +1.5%