CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 22-10-2012

The yen continued a series of declines against the dollar, registering with the 8th-session decline in a row and the longest string of losses in the last seven years in. This trend was due to the release of data that showed that the volume of Japanese exports fell sharply.

The Japanese currency fell against all 16 most-traded currencies after Economy Minister Seiji Maehara said yesterday the introduction of additional incentives.

Today, the yen hit a mark Y79.88, which is the lowest level since July 12.

At the same time, the yen fell against the euro to the level of Y104, 46, which is the minimum in May.

The Australian dollar weakened against most major currencies before a report this week will shed light on the rate of inflation, which is expected to show the slowest pace in 13 years, providing more opportunities to the country's central bank to cut interest rates.

The pound rose for the first time in three days against the dollar after a report showed that the number of bankruptcies in the UK industrial business fell in September, while increasing optimism that the economic recovery continues.

UK currency also fell against the euro and the dollar, in the run-up policy, the Bank of England, which is scheduled for November 8.

The Canadian dollar touched its lowest level against the U.S. dollar for more than 10 weeks, as investors speculated that the Bank of Canada will be at tomorrow's meeting will not pay close attention to interest rates.

European stocks fell for a second day as Japanese exports tumbled and investors speculated that victory in regional elections for Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy reduces pressure for him to seek a bailout.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) slipped 0.4 percent to 272.93 in London, having earlier risen as much as 0.3 percent. The measure lost 0.8 percent on Oct. 19 as European Union leaders failed to discuss additional assistance for Spain at a summit in Brussels. The gauge has still rallied 17 percent from the June 4 low as the European Central Bank unveiled a bond-purchase program to support the economy.
Japan’s exports slid 10.3 percent in September from a year earlier, leaving a trade deficit of 558.6 billion yen ($7 billion), the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts was for a 9.9 percent export decline. The drop was the most since May 2011, two months after a magnitude-9 quake struck Japan’s northeast, triggering a tsunami and a nuclear disaster that led to the shuttering of most of the nation’s reactors.
National benchmark indexes fell in nine of the 18 western European markets.
FTSE 100 5,882.91 -13.24 -0.22% CAC 40 3,483.25 -21.31 -0.61% DAX 7,328.05 -52.59 -0.71%
In Spain, Rajoy’s party extended its majority in the stronghold region of Galicia, winning 41 of the 75 seats in the regional assembly. Spanish bonds fell, sending the yield on 10- year debt up 9 basis points to 5.46 percent.
Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras will meet with the heads of the parties supporting his coalition government tomorrow to discuss 13.5 billion euros ($17.6 billion) of budget measures for 2013 and 2014 to persuade creditors to release further funds for the debt-stricken nation.
Veolia, the world’s largest water company, fell 4.5 percent to 8.13 euros and Suez Environnement dropped 1.6 percent to 8.30 euros after denying merger talks.
Nexans tumbled 6.7 percent to 33.96 euros, dropping the most in almost six months. The world’s second-biggest maker of cables reduced its full-year revenue forecast, predicting “stable” sales compared with a previous prediction for “slight organic growth.”
Valeo SA (FR), France’s second-largest car-parts maker, slid 3.7 percent to 34.62 euros as the stock was reduced to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank.
Aggreko Plc (AGK), the world’s biggest provider of mobile power supplies, slipped 2.8 percent to 2,077 pence. The company was cut to underweight, the equivalent of sell, from neutral at HSBC Holdings Plc.
Philips advanced 5.6 percent to 20.08 euros, the biggest gain in almost three months. The company said third-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and one-time items rose 43 percent to 562 million euros. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey had predicted 520 million euros. Sales of 6.13 billion euros beat a 5.95 billion-euro prediction.
Scania rose 3.2 percent to 124.10 kronor. The Swedish truckmaker controlled by Volkswagen AG said orders for its trucks and buses fell 10 percent in the third quarter, compared with a 14 percent drop in the previous period. Net income of 1.5 billion kronor ($230 million) was in line with analysts’ estimates.
OC Oerlikon AG rallied 4.3 percent to 9.48 Swiss francs. The Swiss maker of textile machinery and car gears said Chinese regulators approved the sale of its solar division to Tokyo Electron Ltd.
Salzgitter AG (SZG), Germany’s second-biggest steelmaker, gained 3.7 percent to 34.76 euros as Credit Suisse Group AG raised the stock to outperform, the equivalent of buy, from neutral.

• Among the banks, which will directly control the ECB will probably include one British bank

• The ECB will monitor the activities of only 25-30 banks directly

• Banking Association is not a threat to the single market

• Summit conclusions regarding the banking supervision "justified"

• "It is clear" that the banking supervision in the EU will not be ready by year-end

• Regulation of most banks can still take place at the national level

Oil prices fluctuate, fixing the decline, as TransCanada Corp plans to restart the Keystone pipeline. At the same time, the price of oil is putting pressure on the appreciation of the euro against the dollar.

Prices traded during the day then down then rise as the representative TransCanada James Millar said the pipeline will resume sending oil to the U.S. today after a two-day delay. Note that through this pipeline is approximately 590,000 barrels per day. He was suspended on October 17 after a routine check revealed problems in the trunk.

According to the Ministry of Energy, the U.S. imported 1.65 million barrels of oil per day in the Midwest during the week that ended Oct. 12, and a large part of raw materials imported into the region comes from Canada.

Also today, the euro rose, which was the first time in three days after the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy won a majority of votes in his home region of Galicia, thus justifying the austerity program of the government.

Note also that the data showed that exports to Japan, which is the third largest country in the world oil consumer, fell to a maximum value since the earthquake last year. September delivery fell by 10% compared to last year.

November futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) is 89.34 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

December futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix is now 110.10 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices rose, while recovering the losses incurred in the previous session, which showed the most significant one-day drop in more than three months.

Also on this momentum the falling value of the dollar, which today shows a significant decline against the euro and most other major currencies.

Note that the metal prices fell 1.8% on Friday, as disappointing corporate reports a negative impact on the stock market, thus causing the outflow of investors to higher yielding assets, such as the dollar. But today the depreciation of the dollar triggered a trend that has helped increase the value of gold.

We also note that today the spot price of gold fell to its lowest level since September 7, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose $ 3.20 to $ 1,727.20 an ounce.

Recall that the weakness of the U.S. currency is the rise in gold prices, as it makes dollar-denominated assets less expensive for holders of other currencies and raises interest in bullion as an alternative store of value.

Data from the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission on Friday showed that hedge funds and other large speculators gradually reduce its gold assets, after the price of gold has not been able to overcome the level of $ 1800 per ounce.

Market participants' attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve's meeting this week and its impact on foreign exchange markets and the financial sector.

November futures price of gold on COMEX today rose $ 1.80 and is now 1724.80 an ounce.

The next strong resistance level is $ 1.3140 (Oct 17 high)

Sold E6.647bln vs target E5.8bln-E7.0bln

- E3.795bln 3-month BTF, avg yield -0.027% (-0.023%), cover 3.18 (3.59)

- E1.760bln 6-month BTF, avg yield -0.011% (-0.007%), cover 3.27 (4.90)

EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3125, $1.3200

GBP/USD $1.6000

AUD/USD $1.0250, $1.0375, $1.0400

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.15, Y79.20, Y79.30

EUR/JPY Y103.50

EUR/GBP stg0.8100

USD/CHF Chf0.9400

U.S. stock futures advanced as investors watched corporate results.
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the biggest maker of construction and mining equipment, fell after forecasting sales growth that is the slowest in four years.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  9,010.71 +8.03 +0.09%
Hang Seng 21,697.55 +145.79 +0.68%
Shanghai Composite 2,132.76 +4.46 +0.21%
FTSE  5,890.44 -5.71 -0.10%
CAC  3,503.05 -1.51 -0.04%
DAX 7,364.16 -16.48 -0.22%
Crude oil $90.16 +0,12%
Gold $1725.70 +0.10%

The yen fell for an eighth day against the dollar, the longest streak in seven years, as a report showing Japan’s exports fell the most since the 2011 earthquake fueled bets the central bank will add more stimulus.

Japanese exports slid 10.3 percent in September from a year earlier, leaving a trade deficit of 558.6 billion yen, the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo. The median forecast was for a 9.9 percent decline. The decline was the most since May 2011, two months after a magnitude-9 quake struck northeastern Japan, triggering a tsunami and a nuclear disaster.

Japan’s currency dropped at least 0.6 percent versus all 16 of its major counterparts after Economy Minister Seiji Maehara pressed the Bank of Japan yesterday for more action to boost the economy.

The euro rose after Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy extended an electoral majority in his home region of Galicia, vindicating the government’s austerity program. Furthermore, little support for common European currency was from the statements made at the weekend the Minister of Finance of Greece. He noted that the country has fulfilled 90% of what was to be done to get the tranche in the amount of E31.5 billion, and if it recognizes the Troika, much needed money Greece will receive.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to a new high of $ 1.3076

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to a new high of $ 1.6052

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to a new high of Y79.88

At 17:30 GMT a speech FOMC member Sandra Pyanalto. At 23:00 GMT Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators from the Conference Board in August.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3120, $1.3100, $1.3080

Bids  $1.3020, $1.3000, $1.2980

European stocks were little changed as Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said local elections vindicated his austerity program while Japan’s exports tumbled.

In Spain, Rajoy extended his majority in the stronghold region of Galicia as voters offered some respite to his 10- month-old government and removed one obstacle to a European bailout. His party won 41 of the 75 seats in the regional assembly, allowing it to extend its majority in the northwestern region.

Japan’s exports slid 10.3 percent in September from a year earlier, leaving a trade deficit of 558.6 billion yen ($7 billion), the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts was for a 9.9 percent export decline. The drop was the most since May 2011, two months after a magnitude-9 quake struck Japan’s northeast, triggering a tsunami and a nuclear disaster that led to the shuttering of most of the nation’s reactors.

Royal Philips Electronics NV climbed 4.5 percent after the world’s largest lighting company reported third-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates.

Veolia Environnement SA retreated 4.1 percent as Suez Environnement denied it’s working on a merger with its bigger rival.

FTSE 100 5,902.4 +6.25 +0.11%

CAC 40 3,510.64 +6.08 +0.17%

DAX 7,377.76 -2.88 -0.04%

ECB bond buying program to ease fears the collapse of the eurozone

IMF to participate in the adjustment to the ECB could buy bonds

The ECB will take an independent decision whether to buy his bonds

The ECB will buy bonds from investors only, and not the euro-zone members

Bond purchase program - not financing the public debt

ECB bond purchase program does not carry the threat of inflation

Inflation expectations in the euro area over the next five years is firmly restrained

The budgetary situation in many countries in the eurozone are still unfavorable

EUR/USD $1.2400, $1.2450, $1.2250

USD/JPY Y79.25, Y79.15, Y79.00

EUR/JPY Y98.00

AUD/USD $1.0350, $1.0570

NZD/USD $0.8100, $0.8150

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index retreating after its biggest weekly advance in a month, as Japan’s exports dropped at the fastest pace since last year’s post-earthquake slump amid a global economic slowdown and a territorial dispute with China.

Nikkei 225 9,010.71 +8.03 +0.09%

S&P/ASX 200 4,541 -30.07 -0.66%

Shanghai Composite 2,134.24 +5.94 +0.28%

Komatsu Ltd., the Japanese maker of construction machinery that gets 14 percent of sales from China, slid 2.4 percent in Tokyo.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd. slumped 7.3 percent in Sydney after Australia’s biggest wine maker forecasting a decline in first-half earnings.

GrainCorp Ltd. jumped 39 percent after Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. offered to buy the Australian grain handler.

Yesterday the euro declined for a second day against the dollar after Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said his nation doesn’t feel under any pressure to ask for a bailout, fueling concern the debt crisis will be prolonged. Rajoy said at an EU summit in Brussels that has made "significant progress" and showed the EU that will meet their obligations. He also said that his government will decide on the assistance based on the interests of Spain.

The 17-nation currency dropped for the first time in seven days versus the yen on speculation this week’s European Union summit in Brussels will fail to provide clarity on potential financial aid for Spain and the allocation of the next tranche of Greece.

At the same time, at the summit, it was decided to create a European system of banking supervision in 2013. Germany managed to convince the EU summit to delay the creation of a European system of banking supervision. The Heads of State and Government decided to implement the plan "for 2013." Previously, several countries insisted on establishing control on January 1 next year. Diplomatic sources say that banking supervision will be operational in early 2014 and spread to all of the 6,000 banks in the euro zone. The European Central Bank (ECB) will always give national regulatory authorities on the audit assignment of individual banks. However, if necessary, the ECB could itself supervise.

The pound gained against the euro after the U.K. budget deficit narrowed. In the UK in September, net debt of the public sector amounted to 10,732 billion pounds compared with an expected 11.0 billion pounds.

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index headed for the first drop in four days, as worse-than-expected earnings results from Google Inc. and Microsoft Corp. weighed on technology shares.

Nikkei 225 9,002.68 +19.82 +0.22%

S&P/ASX 200 4,571.1 +11.67 +0.26%

Shanghai Composite 2,127.8 -3.89 -0.18%

Internet portal Yahoo Japan Corp. declined 2.7 percent in Tokyo.

Fanuc Corp., a Japanese maker of factory robots, increased 3.2 percent after manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded more than estimated.

Drugmaker Kyowa Hakko Kirin Co. fell 6.2 percent in Tokyo after halting a trial for a drug to treat kidney disease.

00:30 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks -

03:50 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

00:30 Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks -

03:50 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks -

17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks -