CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 24-10-2012

The euro fell against most major currencies, reaching with respect to the dollar the lowest level in more than a week, after data showed that business activity in the services sector and manufacturing declined in October, more than economists forecast.

The single currency fell against the yen against the fact that the data from Germany showed that German business confidence fell to its lowest level since February 2010.

The euro recovered some losses incurred before, after reports of talks between Greece and international officials on financial aid.

At the same time, market participants are waiting for the accompanying statement by the Committee on the Federal Open Market, which puts pressure on the euro.

It is learned that officials of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund rejected the German proposal to tighten Greek access to care. ECB President Mario Draghi said that the so-called "troika" has not made any proposals for Greece. The officials discussed the agreement, which would pave the way for the next payment to the affected countries.

The dollar index (DXY) fluctuated after a report showed that sales of new U.S. homes rose to two-year high in September. Sales climbed 5.7% to 389,000 year on year, after a revised 368,000 in August.

The Australian dollar rose against all 16 most-traded currencies after a report that showed that the PMI index for the manufacturing in China rose in October to the three-month high, reaching the mark with 49.1, compared with 47.9 in September. At the same time, data from Australia showed that consumer prices in Australia increased in the third quarter by 2.0% in annual terms. This value significantly exceeded analysts who had expected annual growth of 1.6% after increasing 1.2% in the second quarter.

The pound rose to a three-month high against the euro on optimism that the UK economy emerged from recession in the third quarter, which led to increased demand for British assets. UK currency rose against all but two of its 16 major counterparts, even after a report showed that the balance of industrial orders fell unexpectedly in October.

The Canadian dollar fell after the governor of the Bank of Canada Carney said that the need to raise interest rates was "less inevitable," after rising in the case of tighter monetary policy.

European stocks advanced, after yesterday tumbling the most in four weeks, as technology companies rallied, outweighing worsening economic data from the euro area.

SAP AG (SAP) gained 4.2 percent after the world’s biggest maker of business-management software raised its full-year revenue target as license sales beat estimates. STMicroelectronics NV (STM) climbed 4.2 percent on plans to cut costs. Volvo AB and Nordea Bank AB (NDA) retreated more than 1.5 percent after the companies reported third-quarter earnings that missed projections.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) rose 0.4 percent to 269.52 at the close in London, after earlier falling as much as 0.4 percent.

Stocks slid earlier as separate reports showed euro-area services and manufacturing output have contracted more than economists had forecast, while German business confidence unexpectedly declined.

In Munich, the Ifo institute said its business-climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, dropped to 100 from 101.4 in September. That’s the sixth straight decline and the lowest reading since February 2010. Economists had predicted an increase to 101.6.

National benchmark indexes climbed in 15 of the 18 western- European markets.

FTSE 100 5,804.78 +6.87 +0.12% CAC 40 3,426.49 +19.99 +0.59% DAX 7,192.85 +19.16 +0.27% 

Stocks also advanced today after a report in China showed a measure of manufacturing in the world’s second-largest economy rose for October. The preliminary reading of a purchasing managers’ index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit increased to 49.1. The final level in September was 47.9.

SAP rallied 4.2 percent to 55.07 euros after the company said sales of new licenses, an indicator of future revenue, increased 12 percent to 1.03 billion euros ($1.3 billion), excluding currency swings. That exceeded the average analyst estimate of 980 million euros. The company also forecast that growth in software and related services sales, based on non-IFRS accounting rules, will reach the upper end of a range of 10.5 percent to 12.5 percent this year, because of contributions from Ariba Inc. and

STMicroelectronics gained 4.2 percent to 4.85 euros after Europe’s largest chipmaker said it will cut costs by $150 million a year by the end of 2013 and will temporarily close plants. The company forecast that fourth-quarter revenue may fall as much as 5 percent amid weakening demand in Europe.

ASML Holding NV (ASML), Europe’s largest semiconductor-equipment supplier, advanced 2.7 percent to 41.58 euros. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) climbed 5.6 percent to 675.5 pence, extending yesterday’s 7.7 percent rally.

Volkswagen AG climbed 3.1 percent to 151 euros after Europe’s largest carmaker reported earnings that met analysts’ estimates and sales that increased. Operating profit fell 19 percent in the third quarter to 2.34 billion euros, in line with the 2.39 billion-euro average analyst estimate. Sales rose 27 percent to 48.8 billion euros.

Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc (RB/) gained 3.7 percent to 3,768 pence, the highest price since at least 1988, after the maker of Nurofen reported revenue that beat estimates.

Telenor ASA (TEL) jumped 6.1 percent to 110.70 kroner after Norway’s largest phone operator reported a 41 percent surge in third-quarter net income to 3.65 billion kroner ($634 million) helped by increasing sales in markets such as Thailand and Malaysia. Analysts had predicted profit of 3.4 billion kroner, the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales advanced 2.5 percent to 25.3 billion kroner.

PSA Peugeot Citroen dropped 4.6 percent to 5.56 euros after the French government guaranteed as much as 7 billion euros of new bonds for Europe’s second-largest carmaker in exchange for greater influence over its strategy.

During the day, Brent crude oil price fluctuated around $ 108 a barrel after a series of six-day decline on weak European data and signs that Chinese demand may begin to recover.

According to preliminary data, the index for the manufacturing PMI rose in October to the three-month high, reaching the mark with 49.1, compared with 47.9 in September. However, the index is still below 50, indicating a reduction in activity, although at a more moderate pace.

At the same time, the economic outlook remains bleak in Europe, which is reflected in the values ​​of the index of PMI in the manufacturing sector, which fell sharply, reaching a minimum at the same level since June 2009, amid concerns that the recession in the currency bloc is likely to be exacerbated in the last quarter of this year.

Note also that the manufacturing PMI in Germany also fell unexpectedly, while the index of business sentiment recorded six consecutive monthly decrease.

Also today, oil prices came under pressure due to weak demand outlook from the two world oil consumers. At the same time supplies from Nigeria, which is the largest oil producer in Africa, have provided some support for prices, in particular brand Brent.

But oil is not able to keep its positions, and sharply declined after a report from the Department of Energy showed inventory levels increased three times more than expected last week, while adding 5.9 million barrels. Analysts on average were at 1.8 million. The department also reported that gasoline demand fell to a seven-month low.

December futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) is $85,61 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

December futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix is ​​now $107,67 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

• Moderate consumption growth reflects the large debt burden for some

• The uncertainty in the world impedes investment

• Equity-high

• Closely watching the housing sector

• Monetary policy - the last line of defense in the housing sector

• The number of housing starts is still higher than the demographic demand

• The data indicate a slightly greater vulnerability of the household sector

• There are conflicting signals about imbalances in the household sector

• U.S. unlikely to avoid a fiscal cliff

• Inflation expectations in Canada reserved

• Canada's GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2012

• There are upside and downside risks to the household sector

• Consumption and investment - the main engine of economic growth

• Moderate consumption growth reflects the large debt burden for some

• The uncertainty in the world impedes investment

• Equity-high

• Closely watching the housing sector

• Monetary policy - the last line of defense in the housing sector

• The number of housing starts is still higher than the demographic demand

• The data indicate a slightly greater vulnerability of the household sector

• There are conflicting signals about imbalances in the household sector

• U.S. unlikely to avoid a fiscal cliff

• Inflation expectations in Canada reserved

• Canada's GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2012

• There are upside and downside risks to the household sector

• Consumption and investment - the main engine of economic growth

For most of the day the price of gold rose, helped by the data from China and upbeat profit from Boeing. Also, market participants are waiting for the Fed at the discount rate, and an accompanying statement by the Committee on the Federal Open Market.

Note that the dollar index erased early gains against a basket of currencies, lowering the pressure on gold.

According to data released today it was announced that The PMI for the manufacturing in China has grown significantly, but, despite this, remained in the territory, which indicates contraction in the sector.

Also today, the company Boeing Co (BA.N) submitted its report, which states that the level of profit for the third quarter was higher than expected. The company also raised its outlook for the full year. Note also that the U.S. stock indexes opened higher after the Dow yesterday suffered the biggest drop in four months against the background of weak accountability from DuPont and United Technologies.

But in the short term, though, there is a risk of reducing the price of the precious metal, as many corporate earnings reports can be viewed with disappointment.

Now the weakness of stock markets displayed in the precious metals market. The basic level of support in the coming time is close at $ 1,685 an ounce.

But despite the positive trend during most of the trading, the price of gold has fallen sharply, updating the yesterday's low.

November futures price of gold on COMEX today dropped $3.60 and is now 1704.80 an ounce.

EUR/USD $1.2915, $1.3000, $1.3010

GBP/USD $1.6000

AUD/USD $1.0215, $1.0235, $1.0250, $1.0285, $1.0300, $1.0350

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.65, Y80.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8155, stg0.8160

NZD/USD Nz$1.2600

USD/CAD Cad1.000

USD/CHF Chf0.9350

U.S. stock futures advanced on signs a slump in China’s factory output is easing and speculation America’s housing market is improving.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,954.3 -59.95 -0.67%
Hang Seng +66.23 +0.31%
Shanghai Composite 2,115.99 +1.54 +0.07%
FTSE  5,816.27 +18.36 +0.32%
CAC  3,422.97 +16.47 +0.48%
DAX 7,200.43 +26.74 +0.37%
Crude oil $86.52 -0,17%
Gold $1711.70 +0.13%

--ECB's OMT will not lead to inflation

--Inflation expectations remain firmly anchored

--EMU economy to remain weak in near term

--Expect very gradual emu recovery in 2013

--EMU unemployment remains deplorably high

--ECB's OMT will not lead to disguised financing of govts

--ECB to intervene only in countries on sustainable path

--ECB will rountinely suspend omts during prog reviews

--OMT will not create excessive risks for taxpayers

--OMT interventions to be decided in full independence

--OMT conditionality protects ecb independence

--ECB acted to counter 'unfounded fears' about emu future

--EMU moving in right directn, importnt to stay on course

DuPont (DD) was downgraded to a Neutral at JPMorgan.

Data

07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) October 42.7 43.7 43.5

07:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) October 45.0 45.6 46.2

07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) October 47.4 48.1 45.7

07:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) October 49.7 50.1 49.3

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate October 101.4 101.7 100.0

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment October 110.3 110.0 107.3

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations October 93.2 93.7 93.2

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) October 46.1 46.6 45.3

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) October 46.1 46.5 46.2

10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance October -8 -6 -23

11:45 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

EUR/USD

Offers   $1.3050, $1.3035/40, $1.3020/25, $1.3000, $1.2965/70

Bids   $1.2920, $1.2900, $1.2875/70, $1.2850

Germany alloted E3.329bln of 10-year benchmark 1.50% Sep 2022 Bund issue Wednesday at an average yield of 1.56% (1.52%) and bid-to-cover ratio of 1.5 times (1.2).

European stocks were little changed, following yesterday’s biggest tumble in four weeks, as a report showed euro-area services and manufacturing contracted more than economists had estimated.

So, today it was announced that in October, preliminary PMI in the service sector eurozone fell to 46.2, the index in the manufacturing sector was 45.3, while the composite PMI fell to 45.8, the three results were lower than expected. Weak performance further clouded the picture, before a broken index PMI in France and Germany. Results of the study IFO in Germany also fell short of analysts' expectations in all categories.

Volvo AB slid 4.9 percent after the truckmaker’s third- quarter profit missed analysts’ estimates.

SAP AG gained 4 percent after the company raised its full-year revenue target as software license sales exceeded analysts’ projections.

FTSE 100 5,800.62 +2.71 +0.05%

CAC 40 3,417.26 +10.76 +0.32%

DAX 7,179.9 +6.21 +0.09%

EUR/USD $1.2915, $1.3000, $1.3010

GBP/USD $1.6000

AUD/USD $1.0215, $1.0235, $1.0250, $1.0285, $1.0300, $1.0350

USD/JPY Y79.00, Y79.65, Y80.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8155, stg0.8160

NZD/USD Nz$1.2600

USD/CAD Cad1.000

USD/CHF Chf0.9350

Asian stocks dropped, with the regional benchmark index heading for its fourth straight loss, as the global economic slowdown crimps corporate earnings and after commodities erased this year’s gains.

Nikkei 225 8,954.3 -59.95 -0.67%

S&P/ASX 200 4,505.8 -37.27 -0.82%

Shanghai Composite 2,113.26 -1.19 -0.06%

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, declined 1.4 percent in Sydney.

Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd. sank 5.7 percent Tokyo after the gas-turbine maker said first- half earnings missed its forecasts.

Yesterday the dollar and yen rose against most major currencies, as the company reports submitted showed that the financial results were below analysts' estimates, adding evidence that the global economy is slowing down, which undermines risk appetite.

Higher-yielding currencies, including the New Zealand dollar weakened as global equities and commodity prices fell.

The Canadian dollar was up against the fact that the central bank said that some stimulation is likely to be necessary. Also significantly increased the likelihood of higher interest rates.

The euro fell to a five-month high against the yen after the level of French industrial confidence fell to its lowest level since 2009.

The dollar index (DXY) rose 0.4% to 79.978 after the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for October fell to be expected.

The European currency fell after earlier Investors Service Moody 's downgraded the credit ratings of five Spanish regions. A week ago, Moody's confirmed the rating of Spain at Baa3, which is the lowest investment grade.

The pound rose to a four-month low against the euro after a report showed that the number of mortgage loans in the Revitalize the UK rose last month to the highest level since April. According to a report from the British Bankers Association index rose in September to 31,175 from 30,683 in August.

Asia stocks move off early highs to trade mostly lower, as dividend worries dent Japanese utility firms, while steel makers weigh in Seoul.

Nikkei 225 9,014.25 +3.54 +0.04%

S&P/ASX 200 4,543.1 +2.10 +0.05%

Shanghai Composite 2,116.42 -16.34 -0.77%

Acer slid 3.3 percent in Taipei as Asia’s second-largest computer maker posted third-quarter profit and sales that missed estimates.

Canon Inc., the world’s biggest camera maker that gets about 31 percent of sales from Europe, dropped 1.5 percent in Tokyo.

Kansai Electric Power Co. sank 7.9 percent after the Nikkei newspaper reported the Japanese utility won’t pay a dividend.

00:30 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter III +0.5% +0.5% +1,4%

00:30 Australia CPI, y/y Quarter III +1.2% +1.6% +2.0%

01:45 China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) October 47.9 49.1

Change % Change Last

Oil 86.66 -0.01 -0.01%

Gold 1,707.90 -1.50 -0.09%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 9,014.25 +3.54 +0.04%

S&P/ASX 200 4,543.1 +2.10 +0.05%

Shanghai Composite 2,116.42 -16.34 -0.77%

FTSE 100 5,799.95 -82.96 -1.41%

CAC 40 3,405.84 -77.41 -2.22%

DAX 7,173.85 -154.20 -2.10%  

Dow -243.28 13,103.06 -1.82%

Nasdaq -26.50 2,990.46 -0.88%

S&P -20.69 1,413.13 -1.44% 

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2984 -0,62%

GBP/USD $1,5950 -0,38%

USD/CHF Chf0,9325 +0,64%

USD/JPY Y79,85 -0,09%

EUR/JPY Y103,70 -0,69%

GBP/JPY Y127,37 -0,46%

AUD/USD $1,0265 -0,61%

NZD/USD $0,8118 -0,76%

USD/CAD C$0,9922 +0,01%

00:30 Australia CPI, q/q Quarter III +0.5% +0.5% +1,4%

00:30 Australia CPI, y/y Quarter III +1.2% +1.6% +2.0%

01:45 China 49.1 (preliminary) October 47.9

07:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) October 42.7 43.7

07:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) October 45.0 45.6

07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) October 47.4 48.1

07:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) October 49.7 50.1

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate October 101.4 101.7

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment October 110.3 110.0

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations October 93.2 93.7

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) October 46.1 46.6

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) October 46.1 46.5

10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance October -8 -6

11:45 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

13:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) October 51.1 51.6

14:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

14:00 U.S. New Home Sales September 373 386

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - +2.9

14:30 Canada Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report IV quarter

15:15 Canada BOC Press Conference -

18:15 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision - 0.25% 0.25%

18:15 U.S. FOMC Statement -

20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision - 2.50% 2.50%

20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement -