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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 23-10-2012
The dollar and yen rose against most major currencies, as the company reports submitted showed that the financial results were below analysts' estimates, adding evidence that the global economy is slowing down, which undermines risk appetite.
Higher-yielding currencies, including the New Zealand dollar weakened as global equities and commodity prices fell.
The Canadian dollar was up against the fact that the central bank said that some stimulation is likely to be necessary. Also significantly increased the likelihood of higher interest rates.
The euro fell to a five-month high against the yen after the level of French industrial confidence fell to its lowest level since 2009.
The dollar index (DXY) rose 0.4% to 79.978 after the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for October fell to be expected.
The European currency fell after earlier Investors Service Moody 's downgraded the credit ratings of five Spanish regions. A week ago, Moody's confirmed the rating of Spain at Baa3, which is the lowest investment grade.
The pound rose to a four-month low against the euro after a report showed that the number of mortgage loans in the Revitalize the UK rose last month to the highest level since April. According to a report from the British Bankers Association index rose in September to 31,175 from 30,683 in August.
European stocks declined for a third day, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) sliding to its lowest level in almost seven weeks as results from companies including Alfa Laval AB and D.E Master Blenders (DE) 1753 NV disappointed investors.
Alfa Laval and D.E Master Blenders fell at least 5 percent each. Mulberry Group Plc (MUL) plunged 24 percent after unexpectedly saying profit will fall. Chemical makers including Arkema SA (AKE) tumbled after DuPont Co.’s earnings lagged forecasts.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 1.7 percent to 268.40 at the close of trading, its lowest level since Sept. 5.
European stocks fell yesterday as investors speculated that Spain will face less pressure to seek a bailout after a victory in regional elections for Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.
Moody’s Investors Service lowered its credit rating on Catalonia and four other Spanish regions. The decision was “driven by the deterioration in their liquidity positions, as evidenced by their very limited cash reserves as of September 2012 and their significant reliance on short-term credit lines to fund operating needs,” the ratings company said.
National benchmark indexes fell in all of the 18 western European markets except Iceland.
FTSE 100 5,799.95 -82.96 -1.41% CAC 40 3,405.84 -77.41 -2.22% DAX 7,173.85 -154.20 -2.10%
Alfa Laval (ALFA) slipped 5.7 percent to 116.80 kronor. The company reported third-quarter order intake of 7.29 billion kronor ($1.1 billion), missing the estimates of Deutsche Bank AG and UBS AG. Alpha Laval said it sees fourth-quarter demand in line with or lower than that of the third quarter.
D.E Master Blenders, the coffee and tea company spun off by Sara Lee Corp. in June, lost 5.3 percent to 9.28 euros after it posted first-quarter revenue that missed analyst estimates as price increases in Germany led consumers to reduce purchases. Revenue fell 1.5 percent to 645 million euros in the three months through September, the company said. Analysts had expected sales of 664 million euros.
Mulberry tumbled 24 percent to 1,006 pence. The British luxury-handbag maker said in an unscheduled announcement that profit will fall because of declining shipments to wholesale customers. Pretax profit will rise to 41.8 million pounds ($66.9 million) in the fiscal year through March.
Burberry Plc (BRBY), the largest U.K. luxury-goods maker, slid 3.2 percent to 1,134 pence.
Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY), Europe’s third-largest aluminum maker, retreated 5.2 percent to 25.48 kroner. The company posted a third-quarter net loss of 277 million kroner ($49 million), compared with a profit of 997 million kroner a year earlier. That surpassed a loss estimate of 142 million kroner.
Nokia Oyj (NOK1V) fell 5.1 percent to 2.05 euros. The mobile-phone maker trying to cope with falling sales and dwindling cash will sell 750 million euros of convertible bonds to address approaching debt maturities.
Michelin & Cie (ML) added 3.4 percent to 63.97 euros. The world’s second-largest tiremaker said third-quarter revenue rose 5.7 percent to 5.44 billion euros, beating the 5.31 billion-euro average of analyst.
The cost of oil fell today to $ 108 a barrel, as investors have reacted to Iran's threat to halt exports, if the West is to tighten sanctions and focused on the fragile state of the global economy and its impact on oil demand.
Concerns about the state of the economy was revived after the world's largest manufacturer of tractors and excavators Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N) warned that the pace of economic slowdown, increased more than expected. Gloomy outlook adds concerns about the Middle East and the possibility of seating in the Atlantic Basin.
Prices were also under pressure on expectations that U.S. crude inventories rose for the third straight week, as imports rebounded.
Oil reserves are expected to have increased by 1.7 million barrels for the week ended October 19. Recall that in the previous week, domestic oil reserves rose by 2.9 million barrels to a level of 369.2 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Ghasemi said Tehran could stop oil exports if the pressure from Western sanctions intensify. Note also the country's oil exports have fallen to their lowest level in more than two decades.
Also influenced the growth of oil in the Middle East. At least seven people were killed and dozens wounded in a shootout in the Lebanese capital Beirut and the coastal areas of Tripoli on Monday. The clashes intensified fears that a civil war is now seeping into Syria, Lebanon, and could spread throughout the region.
November futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) is $86,18 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
December futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix is now $107,72 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.
Gold prices fell by 1%, as the dollar strengthened and stock markets began to fall. Also on such dynamics affect lowering the rating agency Moody's credit rating of five Spanish regions and weak corporate reports from DuPont, United Technologies and Caterpillar.
The pressure from the weakness in gold stocks has caused prices to drop to six-week low of $ 1,705.60 an ounce. If the crash continues and further that this month will be the first to be negative for gold in the past five months.
Spot gold prices fell by 1.1% to $ 1,708.60 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell $ 11.50 an ounce to $ 1,714.80.
Now the focus is on meeting the U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington, which will be held today and tomorrow. While the Fed does not expect the adoption of incentives in the past month, with the remarks at the meeting will be watching more closely, to get clues as to the future direction of policy.
From a technical point of view, analysts who study past price patterns to predict the future direction of the claim that a sufficiently strong support level is the psychological level of $ 1,700 an ounce.
Note also that in India - historically the world's largest consumer of bullion, demand has grown as prices have fallen in anticipation of the planned festival, which is considered as an auspicious time to buy gold.
The data also showed that the inflow of gold in exchange-traded funds, which issue securities backed by physical metal was about 112,223 ounces on Monday, with the bulk of inflows accounted for the SPDR Trust.
November futures price of gold on COMEX today fell $14.30 and is now 1711.00 an ounce.
The pair holding at $ 1.2960-70. The nearest resistance level - $ 1.3020 (MA (200) for H1)
EUR/USD $1.2990, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3075, $1.3100
GBP/USD $1.6105, $1.6110
AUD/USD $1.0325, $1.0400, $1.0450
USD/JPY Y79.25, Y79.45, Y79.75
U.S. stock futures fell amid disappointing results at companies from 3M Co. to DuPont (DD) Co. and as commodities erased their gain for the year.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 9,014.25 +3.54 +0.04%
Hang Seng 21,697.55 +145.79 +0.68%
Shanghai Composite 2,114.45 -18.31 -0.86%
FTSE 5,806.49 -76.42 -1.30%
CAC 3,423.05 -60.20 -1.73%
DAX 7,202.88 -125.17 -1.71%
Crude oil $86.89 -1,99%
Gold $1710.60 -0.91%
Data:
08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals September 30.5 30.9 31.2
The euro dropped from a five-month high against the yen after Moody’s Investors Service cut the ratings of five Spanish regions and French industrial confidence fell to the lowest in more than three years.
Moody’s cut the rating of Catalonia by two steps to Ba3, and also lowered Extremadura, Andalucia, Castilla-La Mancha and Murcia. The company said in a statement yesterday the decision was “driven by the deterioration in their liquidity positions, as evidenced by their very limited cash reserves.” A week ago, Moody’s kept Spain’s sovereign rating at Baa3, the lowest investment grade.
The Spanish government told the EU its budget deficit in 2012 will be 7.3 percent of gross domestic product, exceeding a target of 6.3 percent, El Confidencial reported, citing a Spanish report. An index of sentiment among French factory executives fell to 85 in October, the lowest since August 2009, from 90 last month, the statistics office Insee said in Paris.
The 17-nation currency weakened for the third time in four days versus the dollar as Spanish newspaper El Confidencial said the government told the European Union it will miss its budget deficit target this year.
The yen fell past 80 per dollar for the first time in three months as signs Japan’s economy is closer to contraction spurred bets the central bank will boost stimulus. The yen earlier dropped against the dollar as Economy Minister Seiji Maehara, who has been calling for more action from the central bank, said today he may attend the Bank of Japan’s next meeting on Oct. 30 if his schedule permits.
EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new low of $ 1.2997
GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new low of $ 1.5977
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y79.95
At 12:30 GMT in Canada will change in the volume of retail sales, including excluding auto sales for August. At 13:00 GMT we will know the decision of the Bank of Canada Interest Rate will be done the accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada. At 14:00 GMT will Eurozone consumer confidence indicator for October. At 20:30 GMT the U.S.will publish the change in the volume of crude oil, according to API.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3130, $1.3100, $1.3075/80
Bids $1.3020, $1.3000, $1.2980
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0400, $1.0380/85, $1.0350, $1.0335/40
Bids $1.0280, $1.0250, $1.0220, $1.0200, $1.0180
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6080, $1.6050, $1.6040
Bids $1.5980/75, $1.5950, $1.5920
EUR/JPY
Offers Y105.50, Y105.20, Y105.00, Y104.80
Bids Y103.85/80, Y103.55/50, Y103.20, Y103.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y80.70, Y80.50, Y80.30/35, Y80.20
Bids Y79.50, Y79.30, Y79.20, Y79.05/00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8300, stg0.8280, stg0.8250, stg0.8200, stg0.8180
Bids stg0.8125/20, stg0.8100, stg0.8085/80, stg0.8070, stg0.8050
European stocks slipped for a third day as earnings reports from companies disappointed investors.
Moody’s Investors Service lowered its credit rating on Catalonia and four other Spanish regions. The decision was “driven by the deterioration in their liquidity positions, as evidenced by their very limited cash reserves as of September 2012 and their significant reliance on short-term credit lines to fund operating needs,” the ratings company said.
Alfa Laval slipped 6.5 percent to 115.80 kronor. The company reported third-quarter order intake of 7.29 billion kronor ($1.1 billion), missing the estimates of Deutsche Bank AG and UBS AG. Alpha Laval said it sees fourth-quarter demand in line with or lower than that of the third quarter.
Norsk Hydro ASA declined 3.2 percent to 26.03 kroner. Europe’s third-largest aluminum maker reported a loss in the third quarter as prices for its goods declined. The net loss was 277 million kroner ($49 million), compared with a profit of 997 million kroner a year earlier, the company said.
Michelin added 4.5 percent to 64.67 euros. The company said third-quarter revenue rose 5.7 percent on higher demand for specialty tires. Sales increased to 5.44 billion euros from 5.14 billion euros a year earlier, beating the 5.31 billion-euro average of analyst estimates.
Lafarge SA, the world’s biggest cement maker, gained 0.8 percent to 45.18 euros. Credit Suisse Group AG raised its rating on the stock to outperform, the equivalent of buy, from neutral.
FTSE 100 5,839.88 -43.03 -0.73%
CAC 40 3,466.25 -17.00 -0.49%
DAX 7,267.31 -60.74 -0.83%
EUR/USD $1.2990, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3075, $1.3100
GBP/USD $1.6105, $1.6110
AUD/USD $1.0325, $1.0400, $1.0450
USD/JPY Y79.25, Y79.45, Y79.75
Sold 3-month E967mln Letra at avg yield 1.415% vs 1.203% prev; bid-to-cover 4.32 (3.29)
Sold 6-month E2.561bln Letra at avg yield 2.023% vs 2.213% prev; bid-to-cover 1.99 (1.83)
Asia stocks move off early highs to trade mostly lower, as dividend worries dent Japanese utility firms, while steel makers weigh in Seoul.
Nikkei 225 9,014.25 +3.54 +0.04%
S&P/ASX 200 4,543.1 +2.10 +0.05%
Shanghai Composite 2,116.42 -16.34 -0.77%
Acer slid 3.3 percent in Taipei as Asia’s second-largest computer maker posted third-quarter profit and sales that missed estimates.
Canon Inc., the world’s biggest camera maker that gets about 31 percent of sales from Europe, dropped 1.5 percent in Tokyo.
Kansai Electric Power Co. sank 7.9 percent after the Nikkei newspaper reported the Japanese utility won’t pay a dividend.
Yesterday the yen continued a series of declines against the dollar, registering with the 8th-session decline in a row and the longest string of losses in the last seven years in. This trend was due to the release of data that showed that the volume of Japanese exports fell sharply.
The Japanese currency fell against all 16 most-traded currencies after Economy Minister Seiji Maehara said yesterday the introduction of additional incentives.
Today, the yen hit a mark Y79.88, which is the lowest level since July 12.
At the same time, the yen fell against the euro to the level of Y104, 46, which is the minimum in May.
The Australian dollar weakened against most major currencies before a report this week will shed light on the rate of inflation, which is expected to show the slowest pace in 13 years, providing more opportunities to the country's central bank to cut interest rates.
The pound rose for the first time in three days against the dollar after a report showed that the number of bankruptcies in the UK industrial business fell in September, while increasing optimism that the economic recovery continues.
UK currency also fell against the euro and the dollar, in the run-up policy, the Bank of England, which is scheduled for November 8.
The Canadian dollar touched its lowest level against the U.S. dollar for more than 10 weeks, as investors speculated that the Bank of Canada will be at tomorrow's meeting will not pay close attention to interest rates.
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index retreating after its biggest weekly advance in a month, as Japan’s exports dropped at the fastest pace since last year’s post-earthquake slump amid a global economic slowdown and a territorial dispute with China.
Nikkei 225 9,010.71 +8.03 +0.09%
S&P/ASX 200 4,541 -30.07 -0.66%
Shanghai Composite 2,134.24 +5.94 +0.28%
Komatsu Ltd., the Japanese maker of construction machinery that gets 14 percent of sales from China, slid 2.4 percent in Tokyo.
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd. slumped 7.3 percent in Sydney after Australia’s biggest wine maker forecasting a decline in first-half earnings.
GrainCorp Ltd. jumped 39 percent after Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. offered to buy the Australian grain handler.
European stocks fell for a second day as Japanese exports tumbled and investors speculated that victory in regional elections for Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy reduces pressure for him to seek a bailout.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) slipped 0.4 percent to 272.93 in London, having earlier risen as much as 0.3 percent. The measure lost 0.8 percent on Oct. 19 as European Union leaders failed to discuss additional assistance for Spain at a summit in Brussels. The gauge has still rallied 17 percent from the June 4 low as the European Central Bank unveiled a bond-purchase program to support the economy.
Japan’s exports slid 10.3 percent in September from a year earlier, leaving a trade deficit of 558.6 billion yen ($7 billion), the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts was for a 9.9 percent export decline. The drop was the most since May 2011, two months after a magnitude-9 quake struck Japan’s northeast, triggering a tsunami and a nuclear disaster that led to the shuttering of most of the nation’s reactors.
National benchmark indexes fell in nine of the 18 western European markets.
FTSE 100 5,882.91 -13.24 -0.22% CAC 40 3,483.25 -21.31 -0.61% DAX 7,328.05 -52.59 -0.71%
In Spain, Rajoy’s party extended its majority in the stronghold region of Galicia, winning 41 of the 75 seats in the regional assembly. Spanish bonds fell, sending the yield on 10- year debt up 9 basis points to 5.46 percent.
Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras will meet with the heads of the parties supporting his coalition government tomorrow to discuss 13.5 billion euros ($17.6 billion) of budget measures for 2013 and 2014 to persuade creditors to release further funds for the debt-stricken nation.
Veolia, the world’s largest water company, fell 4.5 percent to 8.13 euros and Suez Environnement dropped 1.6 percent to 8.30 euros after denying merger talks.
Nexans tumbled 6.7 percent to 33.96 euros, dropping the most in almost six months. The world’s second-biggest maker of cables reduced its full-year revenue forecast, predicting “stable” sales compared with a previous prediction for “slight organic growth.”
Valeo SA (FR), France’s second-largest car-parts maker, slid 3.7 percent to 34.62 euros as the stock was reduced to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank.
Aggreko Plc (AGK), the world’s biggest provider of mobile power supplies, slipped 2.8 percent to 2,077 pence. The company was cut to underweight, the equivalent of sell, from neutral at HSBC Holdings Plc.
Philips advanced 5.6 percent to 20.08 euros, the biggest gain in almost three months. The company said third-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and one-time items rose 43 percent to 562 million euros. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey had predicted 520 million euros. Sales of 6.13 billion euros beat a 5.95 billion-euro prediction.
Scania rose 3.2 percent to 124.10 kronor. The Swedish truckmaker controlled by Volkswagen AG said orders for its trucks and buses fell 10 percent in the third quarter, compared with a 14 percent drop in the previous period. Net income of 1.5 billion kronor ($230 million) was in line with analysts’ estimates.
OC Oerlikon AG rallied 4.3 percent to 9.48 Swiss francs. The Swiss maker of textile machinery and car gears said Chinese regulators approved the sale of its solar division to Tokyo Electron Ltd.
Salzgitter AG (SZG), Germany’s second-biggest steelmaker, gained 3.7 percent to 34.76 euros as Credit Suisse Group AG raised the stock to outperform, the equivalent of buy, from neutral.
Major U.S. stock indices ended the session slightly above zero, showing a significant increase at the end of the auction.
At the same time, there remain high chances of continuation of Friday's decline, which had a broad-based and held at high volumes. The focus of the market participants are quarterly reports of companies.
Today, a quarterly report presented by Caterpillar (CAT), which is one of the world's largest construction equipment manufacturers (see the article published in the 12:30 GMT). Earnings per share was higher than forecast, but revenue was below expectations. At the same time, the company lowered its forecasts for the financial indicators for 2012 and 2013.
In CAT noted that "conditions in the global economy proved weaker than expected."
Also voiced expectations that the "global economic growth in 2013 will be slightly higher" than 2012. Expected "modest improvement in the U.S., China and most developing countries, but the difficulties in Europe will continue."
Most of the components of the index DOW are in the red. Grew more than others in the share price Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ, +1,21%). Shares fell more than other Microsoft Corporation (MSFT, -2,34%).
All sectors, except one, are in the red zone. More than other sectors of manufactured goods fell (-0.6%). Growth captures only high-tech sector (+0.4%)
At the close:
Dow 13,345.89 +2.38 +0.02%
Nasdaq 3,016.96 +11.34 +0.38%
S & P 500 1,433.79 +0.60 +0.04%
01:00 U.S. Presidential Debate
The yen weakened past 80 against the dollar for the first time in three months as signs the world’s third-largest economy is closer to contraction fanned speculation that the Bank of Japan will add further stimulus. Japanese Economy Minister Seiji Maehara, who has been calling for more action from the central bank, said today he may attend the BOJ’s next meeting on Oct. 30 if schedule permits. Maehara took part in the previous gathering ended Oct. 5, the first minister to do so for more than nine years.
Demand for the euro was limited before a report today that may show an index of European consumer confidence remained at a more-than three-year low. The European Commission in Brussels will probably say today its initial estimate for sentiment was minus 25.9 in October, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. That would match September’s reading that was the lowest since May 2009.
The Australian dollar held onto three days of losses before data forecast to show inflation held near the slowest in 13 years, providing scope for the Reserve Bank to cut borrowing costs. In Australia, the so-called trimmed mean gauge of core consumer prices probably rose 2.2 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a year earlier, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the statistics bureau publishes its inflation report tomorrow. That compares with a 2 percent increase in the previous quarter, the slowest pace since June 1999. The Reserve Bank of Australia targets average annual inflation of 2 percent to 3 percent. Interest-rate swaps data compiled by Bloomberg show traders are almost certain that policy makers will cut the overnight cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3 percent at their next meeting on Nov. 6.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.3050.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6005-25.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y80.00, but later backed away from that level.
There is a full calendar Tuesday, with a mix of data and official speakers. At 0755GMT, the German Economics Minister, Philipp Roesler, is to speak about "Economics and the State in the 21st Century" at a German Engineering Summit, in Berlin. ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen to speak at 1100GMT at the CEPS event in Brussels, with a speech entitled "Reshaping the EU banking sector structure."
Change % Change Last
Oil $88.30 -0.43 -0.48%
Gold $1,728.20 +1.90 +0.11%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 9,010.71 +8.03 +0.09%
S&P/ASX 200 4,541 -30.07 -0.66%
Shanghai Composite 2,134.24 +5.94 +0.28%
FTSE 100 5,882.91 -13.24 -0.22%
CAC 40 3,483.25 -21.31 -0.61%
DAX 7,328.05 -52.59 -0.71%
Dow 13,345.89 +2.38 +0.02%
Nasdaq 3,016.96 +11.34 +0.38%
S&P 500 1,433.79 +0.60 +0.04%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3064 +0,31%
GBP/USD $1,6011 +0,05%
USD/CHF Chf0,9265 -0,18%
USD/JPY Y79,92 +0,78%
EUR/JPY Y104,42 +1,09%
GBP/JPY Y127,96 +0,83%
AUD/USD $1,0328 -0,03%
NZD/USD $0,8180 +0,28%
USD/CAD C$0,9921 -0,12%01:00 U.S. Presidential Debate -
08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals September 30.5 30.9
12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m August +0.7% +0.4%
12:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m August +0.4% +0.2%
13:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate - 1.00% 1.00%
13:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement -
13:00 Belgium Business Climate October -11.6
14:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence October -25.9 -25.8
14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index October 4 3
17:00 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks -
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