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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 18-10-2012
The yen slipped to the weakest level in almost two months versus the dollar as speculation that the Bank of Japan will boost stimulus measures sapped demand for the nation’s assets as a haven. This month, the Bank of Japan may disclose the assumption that in the next two financial years, he could not reach the target level of inflation at 1%. Later this month, the central bank will release updated economic forecasts for 2012/13., As well as the original forecasts for 2014 fiscal year. This publication is to show that the CPI excluding food does not make it to the 1%. The fall in prices accelerated in May, which increased the pressure on the central bank with respect to reverse deflation and stimulate economic growth. Experts predict that at the meeting of October 30 Bank of Japan newly expanded program of asset purchases.
The euro snapped a two-day gain versus the dollar as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the region’s debt crisis won’t be quickly solved. Market participants still do not expect that the summit will be taken any important decisions. Spain, as expected, will not make a request for assistance, at least until next month. In addition, the EU's leaders are unlikely to make a decision about whether to grant Greece the next tranche of aid. However, the euro was supported by the hope that in the coming weeks, Spain finally make concessions and ask for help, and the partners of Greece from the euro zone, in the end, to give the country more time to achieve target levels of budget deficits.
The U.S. dollar regained some lost ground after the release of U.S. economic data, will weaken investor confidence in the strength of the economic recovery. The dollar rose after a report according to which the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose more than expected. Meanwhile, the index of business activity Philadelphia Fed pointed to some weakness.
The pound rose against the dollar after the September retail sales in Britain were more than expected. Key indicator and the indicator excluding fuel reported an increase of 0.6% against expectations of 0.4%. In annual terms, the main index remained unchanged at 2.5%, while the indicator excluding fuel rose 2.9% vs. 2.1% and 2.4% respectively.
European stocks climbed for a fourth day as a measure of U.S. manufacturing beat estimates, while investors awaited the outcome of a two-day summit of the European Union’s leaders.
EU leaders gathered in Brussels for a two-day summit. French President Francois Hollande earlier said that efforts to stem the debt crisis may unravel if member states fail to deliver on their promises. He called on the euro area to introduce a banking union, provide economic help to countries that reduce budget deficits, and show investors that Greece can stay in the single currency if it abides by its commitments.
The yield on Spain’s benchmark 10-year bonds fell to a six- month low after the country sold 4.61 billion euros ($6 billion) of securities due in 2015, 2016 and 2022. The government had planned to auction 4.5 billion euros of debt.
National benchmark indexes advanced in 10 of the 18 western-European markets today. France’s CAC 40 gained 0.2 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.1 percent. Germany’s DAX climbed 0.6 percent.
Nestle slipped 1.7 percent to 61.20 Swiss francs for the biggest drag on the Stoxx 600. The world’s largest food company reported in a statement that revenue excluding acquisitions, divestments and currency swings gained 6.1 percent. The average estimate of 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had called for sales to climb 6.3 percent.
Remy Cointreau plunged 8 percent to 80.24 euros, its biggest drop since March 2009. Organic revenue rose 13 percent in the six months through September, the company said. That missed the median estimate of nine analysts for an 18 percent gain. Revenue climbed 5.3 percent in the second quarter. It had surged 24 percent in the first three months of the fiscal year.
Akzo Nobel NV slid 4 percent to 42.78 euros after the paintmaker booked a 2.5 billion-euro writedown for its decorative-coatings business. The company overestimated market growth, Chief Financial Officer Keith Nichols said in a conference call today. Demand for its Dulux paint range has fallen. Akzo will introduce further cost-cutting measures to counter the slowdown, he said.
Oil fell for the first time in three days as more Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week.
Prices dropped as much as 1.6 percent after the Labor Department reported jobless claims increased to 388,000 in the week ended Oct. 13, more than the 365,000 forecast by economists. Oil inventories rose last week to the highest level for this time of year since at least 1982 as production gained, the Energy Department said yesterday.
Crude for November delivery fell to $90.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are down 7.2 percent this year.
Brent oil for December settlement declined 70 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $112.52 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Merkel does not expect that the upcoming summit will take important decisions
Leaders agree that they have to work fast to create the banking supervisory authority
Gold futures declined for the first time in three days as Chinese data signaled improving economic growth, easing pressure on the government to announce measures to boost expansion.
China’s industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment accelerated in September after a seven-quarter slowdown. European Union leaders are meeting in Brussels for two days starting today. Gold surged 11 percent in the last quarter after the U.S., Japan and the European Central Bank enacted measures to stimulate growth, increasing demand for the precious metal as an inflation hedge.
China’s gross domestic product expanded 7.4 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, matching economists’ estimates. The country’s economic growth has started to stabilize, the official Xinhua News Agency reported yesterday, citing Premier Wen Jiabao.
Gold futures for November delivery slid to $1,743.00 an ounce on the Comex in New York.
Despite the fact that a key indicator of the September report noted an increase from -1.9 to 5.7 vs. 1.0, release details on the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing activity showed that the indicators of employment, new orders and semi-annual outlook marked decline. Only thanks to the positive dynamics in the category of shipments (-0.2 vs. prev. -21.2) And reserves (2.1 vs. prev. -21.7) Key indicator registered an improvement. According to the report, employment continues to shift away from jobs with full-time employment to fragile items.
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3045, $1.3050, $1.3060, $1.3100, $1.3135, $1.3200
GBP/USD $1.6050, $1.6190, $1.6200
AUD/USD $1.0280, $1.0300, $1.0350
EUR/GBP stg0.8050, stg0.8120
USD/JPY Y78.83, Y78.70, Y78.95
EUR/JPY Y102.00
USD/CHF Chf0.9290
U.S. stock futures fell as jobless claims rose more than forecast and investors weighed earnings reports.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,982.86 +176.31 +2.00%
Hang Seng 21,518.71 +102.07 +0.48%
Shanghai Composite 2,131.69 +26.07 +1.24%
FTSE 5,901.84 -9.07 -0.15%
CAC 3,512.02 -15.48 -0.44%
DAX 7,413.25 +18.70 +0.25%
Crude oil $91.53 -0,64%
Gold $1742.00 -0.63%
Data
00:30 Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence Quarter III -3 -2
02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter III +7.6% +7.4% +7.4%
02:00 China Industrial Production y/y September +8.9% +9.0% +9.2%
06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance September 1.61 2.42 2.02
08:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit -
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) September -0.1% +0.5% +0.6%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) September +2.7% +2.2% +2.5%
The yen fell to its lowest level in almost two months against the dollar on speculation the Bank of Japan will carry out a set of measures to stimulate the economy, undermining demand for assets in the country as a refuge.
The Japanese currency has recorded its longest decline against the dollar since March 2011 after the U.S. Treasury yields reached the highest values for the month compared to the Japanese counterparts. At the end of the month, members of the Board of the Bank of Japan will consider the draft budget for 2012-2013 and forecasts for the year starting April 2014. These are likely to reflect the retail prices, excluding fresh food, which rose by less than 1%, according to official sources on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private. The situation would mean the failure of the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan on the inflation target of 1 percent.
The euro broke its two-day rise against the dollar, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the region's debt crisis will not be solved in one go.
Also today, French President Francois Hollande called for the EU to move forward on the formation of the banking union, to provide economic assistance to countries that are trying to rein in the budget deficit, and show investors that Greece will be able to stay in the monetary union, if it is to fulfill its obligations.
Pound rose sharply during the session, which was caused by the publication of data on the level of retail sales, which rose significantly, surpassing with expectations of many analysts. But, in spite of the significant strengthening of the pound was unable to hold their positions, and almost fell to the lowest level of the day against the dollar.
Australian dollar during the first half of the day has strengthened against the U.S. dollar against the publication of data on China's GDP, which fell in line with analysts' forecasts. But after the currency reached a high of $ 1.0410 the situation has changed, and began a significant decline, in which the Australian dollar is gradually approaching the minimum values of the day.
EUR/USD: during the session, the pair is trading without a trend and now fluctuates near the opening level of the day
GBP/USD: pair rose sharply, setting the maximum at $ 1.6170, followed by a significant drop.
USD/JPY: currency in today's trading shows rapid growth and is now close to the maximum values
At 12:30 GMT in Canada, there are data on changes in the volume of wholesale trade for August. At the same time, the U.S. will know the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits in October. Finish the day at 14:00 GMT U.S. manufacturing output index for the Philadelphia Fed October
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3180, $1.3150, $1.3145/46
Bids $1.3070/60, $1.3055/50, $1.3040, $1.3020
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6250, $1.6200
Bids $1.6105/00, $1.6080, $1.6050
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0550, $1.0500, $1.0450, $1.0420
Bids $1.0350, $1.0320, $1.0300
EUR/JPY
Offers Y105.50, Y105.00, Y104.80, Y104.50
Bids Y103.55/50, Y103.20, Y103.00, Y102.70/60
USD/JPY
Offers Y80.00, Y79.80, Y79.50, Y79.30
Bids Y79.05/00, Y78.85/80, Y78.70, Y78.65/60, Y78.50
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8250, stg0.8200, stg0.8180, stg0.8150
Bids stg0.8100, stg0.8085/80, stg0.8070, stg0.8050, stg0.8040
To resolve the crisis in the Eurozone will take some time
The summit is not taken any decision on the European Monetary Union
Urge to endow the EU Commissioner for monetary policy, strong powers
Reforms are yielding results in Greece, Ireland, Portugal
I promise that the German Parliament will decide on the next payment of Greece
We must wait for the report, "Troika" to take action on Greece
I want Greece to remain in the eurozone
European indices are in the green zone in flat. Investors are not in a hurry to shopping until we know the results of the EU summit. Positively influenced by the news that Greece is able to achieve certain results in the negotiations and the IMF, the ECB and the EU. However, the details are not known. Also positive is the fact that a French state investment bank, in order to stimulate economic growth in the country.
The objective of the bank is lending to small and medium businesses. The estimated capital of the bank 20 billion euros.
To date:
FTSE 100 5,917.33 +6.42 +0.11%
CAC 40 3,523.88 -3.62 -0.10%
DAX 7,412.95 +18.40 +0.25%
Nestle SA fell 2.5% as announced by the data on the volume of sales was below analysts' forecasts. The second largest producer of alcoholic beverages in France Remy Cointreau SA lost 6.9% in the quarter due to low profits. Actelion Ltd. added 1.6% to the cap after the largest Swiss biotech company reported a profit for the third quarter that exceeded analysts' estimates.
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3045, $1.3050, $1.3060, $1.3100, $1.3135, $1.3200
GBP/USD $1.6050, $1.6190, $1.6200
AUD/USD $1.0280, $1.0300, $1.0350
EUR/GBP stg0.8050, stg0.8120
USD/JPY Y78.83, Y78.70, Y78.95
EUR/JPY Y102.00
USD/CHF Chf0.9290
Spain sold E4.614bln vs target E3.5bln-E4.5bln
E1.637bln of 4.00% July 2015 Bono; cover 2.61. Avg yield 3.227%
E1.464bln of 4.25% Oct 2016 Bono; cover 2.56 vs 1.86 previous. Avg yield 3.977% vs 4.60% previous
E1.513bln of 5.85% Jan 2022 Obgligaciones; cover 1.88 vs 2.85 previous. Avg yield 5.458% vs 5.67% prev
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for its highest close in a month, after China’s economic growth matched economists’ estimates and U.S. housing starts jumped.
Nikkei 225 8,982.86 +176.31 +2.00%
S&P/ASX 200 4,559.4 +31.19 +0.69%
Shanghai Composite 2,132.3 +26.68 +1.27%
China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. rose 2.1 percent in Hong Kong.
James Hardie Industries SE, a building-materials supplier that gets 67 percent of sales from the U.S., gained 2 percent in Sydney.
Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second- biggest oil producer, advanced 2.7 percent after boosting its output forecast.
Yesterday the euro strengthened to a one-month high against the dollar after Spain kept its investment-grade credit rating from Moody’s Investors Service, easing concern the region’s debt crisis was spreading. Moody’s said yesterday it kept Spain’s credit rating at Baa3, one step above junk, as the risk that the nation would lose market access had fallen because of the European Central Bank’s willingness to purchase its bonds.
The 17-nation currency appreciated for a fifth day versus the yen as Spanish and Italian bonds rallied. Spain’s 10-year bond yield fell as much as 29 basis points to 5.51 percent, the lowest since April 4, while Italian 10-year yields declined to the least since March 19. Benchmark Spanish borrowing costs have dropped more than 2 percentage points from their record high of 7.75 percent on July 25.
The dollar weakened versus all of its major peers as U.S. housing starts rose to a four-year high last month, damping demand for safer assets.
The pound rallied against the greenback after U.K. jobless claims unexpectedly declined.
Asian stocks advanced, with the regional benchmark index headed for the biggest two-day gain in a month, after U.S. industrial production beat estimates and Spain retained its investment-grade credit rating from Moody’s Investors Service.
Nikkei 225 8,806.55 +105.24 +1.21%
S&P/ASX 200 4,528.2 +36.70 +0.82%
Shanghai Composite 2,105.89 +7.08 +0.34%
Mobile-phone maker LG Electronics Inc., which gets about 45 percent of its sales from North America and Europe, rose 2.5 percent in Seoul.
Fujikon Industrial Holdings Ltd., which manufactures electronic products, surged 9.8 percent in Hong Kong after saying it expects first-half profit to rise.
Ten Network Holdings Ltd., Australia’s third-ranked television broadcaster, slumped to a record low in Sydney as a plan to sell its Eye Corp. billboard unit faltered.
European stocks rose for a third day, the longest winning streak in five weeks, as Moody’s Investors Service kept its investment-grade debt rating on Spain and U.S. new-home construction surged to a four-year high.
Moody’s kept an investment-grade credit rating on Spain late yesterday, citing a reduction in the risk of losing market access because of the ECB’s willingness to buy the nation’s debt.
New-home construction in the U.S. surged in September to the highest level in four years. Starts jumped 15 percent to an 872,000 annual rate last month, the most since July 2008 and exceeding all forecasts of economists, Commerce Department figures showed today. The median estimate of 81 economists surveyed called for a reading of 770,000.
In the U.K., jobless claims unexpectedly fell in September and a wider measure of unemployment dropped to the lowest rate in more than a year as the London Olympics helped push employment to a record.
National benchmark indexes rose in 16 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 (UKX) gained 0.7 percent, Germany’s DAX increased 0.3 percent and France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.8 percent. Spain’s IBEX 35 surged 2.4 percent.
Waertsilae soared 8.1 percent to 29.02 euros in Helsinki, the biggest increase since November. The company reported third- quarter earnings that exceeded estimates and boosted its full- year sales-growth forecast.
Peugeot climbed 4.1 percent to 6.03 euros. Banks may delay the repayment of 4 billion euros ($5.3 billion) in loans from Peugeot’s credit division, Banque PSA Finance, Le Figaro reported, without saying where it got the information. The automaker is examining funding options for the unit, said Jean- Baptiste Mounier, a spokesman for Peugeot.
Danone dropped 3 percent to 47.33 euros, the largest decrease since Aug. 2. The world’s biggest yogurt maker reported third-quarter revenue growth that missed analysts’ estimates as sales of dairy products in Spain and Italy fell. Revenue adjusted for acquisitions, divestments and currency swings rose 5 percent, the Paris-based company said, trailing the 6.1 percent average of 15 forecasts.
ASML Holding NV dropped 5.3 percent to 39.15 euros as Europe’s biggest semiconductor-equipment maker forecast fourth- quarter sales of about 1 billion euros, trailing estimates of 1.16 billion euros. The company’s gross-margin outlook was 41 percent, compared with a 42.6 percent estimate. Separately, ASML agreed to buy Cymer Inc. for 1.95 billion euros.
TeliaSonera AB , Sweden’s biggest phone company, slipped 1.6 percent to 45.40 kronor after it reported third-quarter earnings that missed analysts’ projections because of slowing sales
U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a third straight day, as a jump in housing starts overshadowed disappointing results from International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) and Intel Corp. (INTC)
U.S. equities rose as Commerce Department figures showed new-house construction jumped 15 percent to an 872,000 annual rate last month, the most since July 2008 and exceeding all forecasts of economists. The median estimate of 81 economists called for 770,000.
Technology shares had the largest decline among 10 groups in the S&P 500 (SPX), tumbling 0.8 percent.
Intel, the world’s largest semiconductor maker, dropped 2.5 percent to $21.79. Profit is being crimped by expenses to slow factory output and combat rising inventories. Corporate customers are showing “caution” in placing orders and consumers in developed markets are curtailing PC purchases, Chief Financial Officer Stacy Smith said in a statement.
IBM dropped 4.9 percent to $200.63 after the world’s biggest computer-services provider reported revenue that dropped 5.4 percent to $24.7 billion. That missed the $25.4 billion median analyst estimate, according to data. IBM customers, hurt by anemic demand in home markets, put off software purchases and computer-maintenance contracts.
Apollo Group Inc. tumbled 22 percent to $21.40. The largest U.S. for-profit college chain forecast revenue for fiscal 2013 that missed analysts’ estimates and said it would close campuses and cut jobs.
At the close:
Dow 13,557 +5 +0.04%
Nasdaq 3,104 +3 +0.09%
S&P 500 1,461 +6 +0.42%
00:30 Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence Quarter III -2 -2
02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter III +7.6% +7.4% +7.4%
02:00 China Industrial Production y/y September +8.9% +9.0% +9.2%
The yen touched the weakest level in a month as Asian stock gains and optimism European Union leaders meeting today in Brussels will take steps toward resolving the euro area’s crisis curbed demand for haven assets. France’s President Francois Hollande called on the EU to press ahead on forming a banking union, provide economic help to countries that rein in budget deficits, and show investors that Greece will be able to stay in the euro zone if it keeps its commitments.
Japan’s currency slid versus all 16 major counterparts as expectations increased the country’s central bank will boost stimulus measures at a meeting on Oct. 30. In Japan, central bank board members will release updated economic projections for the 2012 and 2013 fiscal years at month-end, along with the first set of forecasts for the 12 months beginning in April 2014. The estimates will probably show consumer prices, excluding fresh food, rising less than 1 percent, people familiar with the matter said, on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private. That would mark a failure for the Bank of Japan (8301) in meeting its 1 percent inflation goal.
U.S. government debt fell yesterday after Commerce Department figures showed new home construction surged to the highest level in four years, reducing demand for the relative safety of Treasuries. A report today will probably show initial jobless claims in the world’s biggest economy rose to 365,000 last week from 339,000 in the previous period, according to the median forecast among 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The Australian dollar strengthened after China’s statistics bureau said today gross domestic product rose 7.4 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a year earlier, matching the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the report was released. China is Australia’s largest trading partner.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to the previous day's low.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6120-45.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y79.20, updating monthly high.
A full calendar ahead on Thursday, with the main event later in the day as EU leaders meet in Brussels for their latest Summit, with Spain, Greece and plans for deeper economic and monetary union likely to be the dominant topics. Also ahead of the leaders Summit, European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn is slated to participate at the ECMI annual conference, also in Brussels. Also scheduled for 0700GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a government declaration in the German parliament on upcoming EU summit, in Berlin. UK data gets underway at 0830GMT, with the dominant release the official September retail sales numbers. Also at 0830GMT, the September CML gross mortgage lending data and the September SMMT car production numbers are released. US data kicks off at 1230GMT, with the Initial claims data for the October 13 week likely to be the main release. U.S. 13-October Initial Jobless Claims. At 1400GMT, the October Philadelphia Fed Survey is expected. Also at 1400GMT, the September Leading Indicator will hit screens.
Change % Change Last
Gold 1,750 +4 +0.21%
Oil 91.99 -0.10 -0.11%Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,806.55 +105.24 +1.21%
S&P/ASX 200 4,528.2 +36.70 +0.82%
Shanghai Composite 2,105.89 +7.08 +0.34%
FTSE 100 5,910.91 +40.37 +0.69%
CAC 40 3,527.5 +26.56 +0.76%
DAX 7,394.55 +18.28 +0.25%
Dow 13,557 +5 +0.04%
Nasdaq 3,104 +3 +0.09%
S&P 500 1,461 +6 +0.42%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3114 +0,12%
GBP/USD $1,6138 +0,12%
USD/CHF Chf0,9223 -0,09%
USD/JPY Y79,03 +0,22%
EUR/JPY Y103,66 +0,35%
GBP/JPY Y127,52 +0,33%
AUD/USD $1,0373 +0,68%
NZD/USD $0,8216 +0,56%
USD/CAD C$0,9779 -0,86%00:30 Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence Quarter III -2 -2
02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter III +7.6% +7.4% +7.4%
02:00 China Industrial Production y/y September +8.9% +9.0% +9.2%
06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance September 1.73 2.42
08:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit -
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) September -0.2% +0.5%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) September +2.7% +2.2%
12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m August -0.6% +0.2%
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 339 367
14:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey October -1.9 0.5
14:00 U.S. Leading Indicators September -0.1% +0.1%
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