CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 26-10-2012

The euro rose sharply against the dollar, but was unable to hold its positions, and yet depart from the maximum values ​​reached with the opening levels of the day, which was due to concern over the fact that Spain will ask for financial assistance to meet their problems. Also in the course of the day the single currency fell after the Spanish unemployment data showed that the unemployment rate has reached record levels.

Note that a request for help from Spain, which is the fourth largest economy in the euro zone will be considered positive for the euro, because this will allow the European Central Bank to start buying bonds, and reducing the cost of borrowing for countries with high debt.

Also today, in a joint statement, the European Central Bank and the European Commission said that Spain is on the way to fix your problems in the financial sector, but this requires more drastic measures that will be used to address some problem banks.

The dollar sharply and suddenly fell against the euro after data showed that U.S. GDP grew by 2.0% in the third quarter, following growth of 1.3% in the second quarter, and the expectations of 1.9 %.

The dollar fell against the yen, after reaching a four-month high on expectations that the Bank of Japan will take further measures to mitigate the monetary policy during its meeting next week. Experts predict that the central bank will increase the asset purchase program as the target inflation rate of 1%, is likely to be unattainable, even in the financial year starting in April 2014.

The dollar index (DXY), which is used to track the value of the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. partner has changed a bit while still achieving the level of 80.094.

European (SXXP) stocks closed little changed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index completing a weekly drop, as data showed the U.S. economy expanded more than forecast in the third quarter, offsetting concern company earnings are deteriorating.

Straumann Holding AG (STMN) jumped 7.9 percent after Bank of America Corp. recommended buying the shares. Belgacom SA (BELG) surged by a record 7.8 percent after raising its 2012 forecasts. Ericsson AB (ERICB) tumbled 3.9 percent after missing its third-quarter gross-margin target.

The Stoxx 600 rose 0.1 percent to 270.51 in London.  The Stoxx 600 still lost 1.3 percent this week as euro-area manufacturing shrank and corporate earnings weakened.

Gross domestic product rose at a 2 percent annual rate after climbing 1.3 percent in the prior quarter. The median forecast of 86 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 1.8 percent gain.

In Europe, reports showed that French consumer sentiment dropped in October, while Spain’s unemployment rate climbed to a record in the third quarter as a deepening recession left one in four workers jobless.

National benchmark indexes advanced in ten of the 17 western-European markets that were open today. The Vienna market was closed.

FTSE 100 5,813.01 +7.96 +0.14% CAC 40 3,434.8 +23.27 +0.68% DAX 7,229.75 +29.52 +0.41%

Straumann jumped 7.9 percent to 118.1 Swiss francs, the biggest gain in more than five months, after Bank of America raised the world’s biggest maker of dental implants to buy from underperform.

Belgacom, the largest phone company in Belgium, advanced 7.8 percent to 23.14 euros, the strongest rally since it sold shares to the public in March 2004, as the company raised its 2012 forecasts and announced a special dividend.

Anglo American Plc (AAL) gained 4.1 percent to 1,933.50 pence after saying Chief Executive Officer Cynthia Carroll will quit.

Ericsson dropped 3.9 percent to 58.15 kronor, the sharpest decrease since May 4. The world’s largest maker of mobile-phone networks reported a third-quarter gross margin, or the percentage of sales remaining after production costs, that slid to 30.4 percent from 35 percent, missing the average estimate of 32.2 percent.

Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOB), the world’s biggest insulin maker, fell 3.3 percent to 930 kroner after U.S. regulators disclosed that a scheduled advisory-panel meeting on the diabetes treatment Tresiba will focus on cardiovascular risks.

Randstad Holding NV (RAND) slid 4.7 percent to 25.32 euros after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded the company’s shares to neutral from buy.

Mediaset SpA (MS) declined 3.1 percent to 1.34 euros. Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was found guilty of tax fraud and sentenced to four years in prison in a film-rights case involving the television company.

Renault SA (RNO) fell 1.8 percent to 34.74 euros, retreating for the sixth straight day, after third-quarter revenue plunged 13 percent to 8.45 billion euros, the carmaker said yesterday after the market close. The figure missed the 8.97 billion-euro average of analyst.

Oil heads for its second weekly decline on concern that economic growth will not be strong enough to stimulate demand and facilitate inventory glut.

Prices fell for the sixth time in the last seven days, as the U.S. gross domestic product grew by 2% in the third quarter, and the Spanish unemployment rate rose to a record high. At the same time, U.S. crude stocks rose to the highest level for this time of year.

We also note that the data presented today showed that consumer purchasing power declined, and the level of disposable income, adjusted for inflation, grew by 0.8% per year in the period from July to September, which is the weakest level since late 2011.

Recall that the value of GDP is the first of three for the quarter and other releases scheduled for November and December.

Many analysts predict that the price of oil may fall next week amid rising inventories in the U.S., weakening demand and rising production.

Note that the production in the U.S. rose by 6.61 million barrels per day for the week ending October 19, reaching with 17-year high. At the same time, gasoline consumption dropped by 2.7% to 8.49 million barrels a day, which is the lowest rate since March 16.

December futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) is 86.02 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

December futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix is ​​now 108.95 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Despite a significant decline during the greater part of the trading price of gold were able to recover the lost ground, setting all-new high. Also note that today the number of transactions for the purchase reached the highest level in the past three weeks, as there were hopes that the central banks will increase their incentive programs to boost economic growth.

Most analysts expect that prices for precious metals will continue next week. At the same time, the data showed that investors have increased their share of exchange-traded products to the level of 2,585.1 tons, valued at $ 141.5 billion

It is learned that Japan will further expand stimulus and the Federal Reserve said it plans to continue to buy the bonds.

The Bank of Japan will hold its meeting on 30 October, and is expected to consider the issue of improving asset-purchase program to 10 trillion yen ($ 125 billion) to 90 trillion yen. At the same time, the Fed said it will monthly bond purchases at 40 billion dollars, and is likely to keep interest rates near zero until mid-2015. The European Central Bank has stated that he is ready to buy the bonds of indebted countries and China, the sum of which is $ 158 billion

Some investors buy bullion as a hedge against inflation and a weak dollar.

Note also that gold imports by India, which was the largest buyer of last year, dropped to 170 tons in the third quarter from 205 tons a year earlier, while local prices fell by 5.7%, after the establishment of a maximum of 13 September. At the same time, falling gold this month may encourage increased physical demand in Asia. As you know, Indian consumers usually increase purchases before the season of weddings and religious holidays this year.

November futures price of gold on COMEX today rose $3,9 and is now 1716.00 an ounce.

Euro stretching toward the overnight high at $1.2951/56 area of European/Asian highs and should see resistance there. Last $1.2949.

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2910, $1.3000, $1.3075

GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6140

AUD/USD $1.0250, $1.0350, $1.0400

USD/JPY Y79.30, Y80.00, Y80.20

EUR/JPY Y103.45, Y103.50

EUR/GBP stg0.8135, stg0.8150

NZD/USD Nz$0.8185

U.S. stock futures were little changed as a government report showed the world’s largest economy expanded more than forecast in the third quarter.
GDP  rose at a 2% annual rate after climbing 1.3% in the prior quarter, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists called for a 1.8% gain.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,933.06 -122.14 -1.35%
Hang Seng 21,545.57 -264.66 -1.21%
Shanghai Composite 2,066.21 -35.37 -1.68%
FTSE  5,809.65 +4.60 +0.08%
CAC  3,437.35 +25.82 +0.76%
DAX 7,237.65 +37.42 +0.52%
Crude oil $86.30 +0,29%
Gold $1711.40 -0.09%

--Economies still face painful adjustments

--Govenments lack tools to evaluate economic adjustment consquences

Procter & Gamble target raised to $72 from $62 at Caris & Company

Data

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey November 5.9 5.9 6.3

06:45 France Consumer confidence October 85 84 84

07:00 Switzerland KOF Institute Economic Forecast October 1.68 1.72 1.67

The euro fell as Spanish unemployment data showed a record one-in-four residents was out of work in the third quarter, adding to signs the crisis is pushing the region toward another recession.

Europe’s common currency slipped to its weakest level since Oct. 15 against the dollar. In September, the growth index of import prices in Germany has slowed from 3.2% to 1.8% vs. 2.9% y / y, and on a monthly basis a decline of 0.7%. In Business confidence in Italy and consumer confidence in France marked decline from 88.3 to 87.6 and from 85 to 84, respectively. The only positive point was the German study GfK, reported an increase in the consumer confidence index from 5.9 to 6.3 in November.

Rating agency Standard & Poor's Ratings Services has further worsened the market sentiment, downgraded the ratings of the bank BNP Paribas SA on Thursday evening. In S & P reported an increase in "economic risks" in France and southern Europe, where many branches of the French bank. The rating agency also placed the ratings of other French banks to list on review for possible downgrade. Among them, Credit Agricole SA, Societe Generale SA and Group BPCE, which owns the investment company of Natixis.

Also worth noting that concerns about Spain and Greece remain. Greece should further 30 billion euros by 2016 in view of a deeper recession and slippage in achieving the target level of the budget. This was reported by the "troika", which includes the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank.

The yen rose from a four-month low versus the greenback as corporate earnings that missed analyst expectations dragged down stocks, boosting refuge demand. The yen has strengthened, despite the expectations of market participants that the Bank of Japan will take further measures to mitigate the monetary policy during its meeting next week. Experts predict that the central bank will increase the asset purchase program as the target inflation rate of 1%, is likely to be unattainable, even in the financial year starting in April 2014.

The dollar rose against higher-yielding peers before data that may show the U.S. economy grew by less than 2 percent in two consecutive quarters for the first time since 2009.

EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new low of $ 1.2881

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair is trading in a narrow range

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to a new low Y79.70

EUR/USD

Offers    $1.3050, $1.3035/40, $1.3000, $1.2975/80 

Bids     $1.2900, $1.2850

European stocks dropped, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index heading for its biggest weekly decline this month, as investors awaited data on American gross domestic product growth amid concern company earnings are deteriorating.

In Europe, reports showed that French consumer sentiment dropped in October, while Spain’s unemployment rate climbed to a record in the third quarter as a deepening recession left one in four workers jobless.

Ericsson dropped 4.4 percent to 57.85 kronor, the sharpest decrease in three months. The world’s largest maker of mobile- phone networks reported a third-quarter gross margin, or the percentage of sales remaining after production costs, that slid to 30.4 percent from 35 percent, missing the average estimate of 32.2 percent.

French banks declined, leading a gauge of European (SXXP) lenders lower for the worst performance as a group on the Stoxx 600. BNP Paribas SA slid 2.8 percent to 38.53 euros. Credit Agricole SA fell 3.7 percent to 5.78 euros, a two-week low. Societe Generale SA lost 3.1 percent to 24.11 euros.

S&P cut BNP’s long-term counterparty credit grade by one level to A+ from AA-. The ratings company also revised its outlook to negative from stable for 10 other French banks, including Credit Agricole and Societe Generale.

Novo Nordisk, the world’s biggest insulin maker, fell 2.2 percent to 940 kroner after U.S. regulators disclosed that a scheduled advisory-panel meeting on the diabetes treatment Tresiba will focus on cardiovascular risks.

FTSE 100 5,767.7 -37.35 -0.64%

CAC 40 3,397.57 -13.96 -0.41%

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2910, $1.3000, $1.3075

GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6140

AUD/USD $1.0250, $1.0350, $1.0400

USD/JPY Y79.30, Y80.00, Y80.20

EUR/JPY Y103.45, Y103.50

EUR/GBP stg0.8135, stg0.8150

NZD/USD Nz$0.8185

Asian stocks fell, with the regional index poised to erase this month’s gains, as companies including Fanuc Corp. and China Unicom Ltd. reported earnings that disappointed investors. South Korea’s Kospi Index sank 1.6 percent after Bank of Korea data today showed the nation’s gross domestic product expanded 1.6 percent in the three months to September from a year earlier, the slowest pace in three years.

Nikkei 225 8,933.06 -122.14 -1.35%

S&P/ASX 200 4,472.4 -38.10 -0.84%

Shanghai Composite 2,065.3 -36.28 -1.73%

Fanuc, an industrial robot manufacturer, slid 2.8 percent in Tokyo, while China Unicom, the nation’s No. 2 mobile-phone company, sank 7.1 percent in Hong Kong.

Woongjin Coway Co., a maker of water purifiers, surged 11 percent in Seoul after its parent agreed to stick with a plan to sell a controlling stake to MBK Parters Ltd.

China Unicom retreated 7.1 percent to HK$12.78 in Hong Kong after third-quarter net income rose 27 percent to 2.02 billion yuan ($324 million). The result, derived from nine-month earnings reported by the Beijing-based company, compares with the 2.21 billion-yuan median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

Yesterday the yen against the dollar reached its lowest level in four months, as investors speculated that the Bank of Japan will expand monetary stimulus of the economy next week.

Japan's currency fell against most major currencies after the Nikkei newspaper reported that the Bank of Japan will consider increasing its program of asset purchases.

The dollar regained its early losses against the major currencies as risk appetite started to wane, and U.S. stocks moved into positive territory. Growth rates also helped the published data, which showed that orders for durable goods rose by 9.9% in September, after falling 13.1% in August. At the same time, economists had forecast an increase of 7.5%.

Also, the rating agency Fitch said that its negative outlook on the U.S. credit rating at AAA is still unlikely to change until the end of 2013, as assess any reduction in the deficit will be possible only after the elections to be held this year.

Sterling has grown significantly, as data showed that the UK's gross domestic product rose by 1% in three months (to June), while showing the fastest rate of expansion in the last five years, and exceeded even the most optimistic estimates from analysts.

Most Asian stocks stocks advanced as exporters climbed amid signs of improvement in China’s factory output and the U.S. housing market.

Nikkei 225 9,055.2 +100.90 +1.13%

S&P/ASX 200 4,510.5 +4.68 +0.10%

Shanghai Composite 2,105.99 -10.00 -0.47%

James Hardie Industries SE, a supplier of building materials that counts the U.S. as its biggest market, rose 1.1 percent in Sydney.

Huaneng Power International Inc., a Chinese electricity producer, gained 1.5 percent in Hong Kong.

Sharp Corp. sank 3.6 percent in Tokyo after the Nikkei newspaper reported that the maker of Aquos televisions may report a first- half loss of 400 billion yen ($5 billion).

21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance September -0.789 -0.853 -0.791

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y September -0.4% -0.4% -0.3%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y September -0.3% -0.2% -0.1%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y October -0.7% -0.8% -0.8%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y October -1.1% -1.1% -1.0%

Change % Change Last

Oil $86.07 +0.02 +0.02%

Gold $1,713.40 +0.40 +0.02%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 9,055.2 +100.90 +1.13%

S&P/ASX 200 4,510.5 +4.68 +0.10%

Shanghai Composite 2,105.99 -10.00 -0.47%

FTSE 100 5,805.05 +0.27 0.00%

CAC 40 3,411.53 -14.96 -0.44%

DAX 7,200.23 +7.38 +0.10%

Dow +26.96 13,104.30 +0.21%

Nasdaq +4.42 2,986.12 +0.15%

S&P +4.23 1,412.98 +0.30% 

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2941 -0,22%

GBP/USD $1,6118 +0,51%

USD/CHF Chf0,9347 +0,24%

USD/JPY Y80,35 +0,70%

EUR/JPY Y103,98 +0,47%

GBP/JPY Y129,49 +1,19%

AUD/USD $1,0355 +0,08%

NZD/USD $0,8189 -0,04%

USD/CAD C$0,9942 +0,06%

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey November 5.9 5.9

06:45 France Consumer confidence October 85 84

07:00 Switzerland KOF Institute Economic Forecast October 1.67 1.72

12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (preliminary) Quarter III +1.3% +1.8%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q Quarter III +1.5% +2.0%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter III +1.7% +1.3%