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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 31-10-2012
The euro rose for a second day versus and yen as European governments pressed Greece to make deeper spending cuts to keep aid flowing as they pushed to resolve the region’s three-year-old sovereign-debt crisis.
The 17-nation currency earlier erased a gain against the dollar after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the timely payment of Greece’s next tranche of aid was “ambitious.” It strengthened earlier against most of its 16 major peers before Portuguese lawmakers hold an initial vote tomorrow on the 2013 budget proposal.
With Greece pleading for a 31 billion-euro ($40 billion) aid payout in November and facing a sixth year of recession in 2013, euro finance ministers said unfreezing loans for the country required more efforts in Athens to rein in the budget deficit and deregulate the economy.
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, was little changed at 79.897.
U.S. stock markets erased an earlier gain as trading resumed after a two-day shutdown for Hurricane Sandy, which broke up over Pennsylvania after battering the East Coast since Oct. 29.
The pound strengthened for a second day against the dollar amid speculation the Bank of England will refrain from adding monetary stimulus to the economy when it meets next week. The central bank will announce on Nov. 8 whether to increase its target for asset purchases, or quantitative easing, from 375 billion pounds ($604 billion) after data last week showed gross domestic product expanded 1 percent last quarter as the economy emerged from a recession.
The Canadian dollar fell after the August 2012 Canadian GDP unexpectedly fell by 0.1% compared to 0.2% in July. Governor of the Bank of Canada Carney reiterated that "eventually" may need to raise interest rates.
European stocks fell, paring the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s fifth straight monthly gain, as ArcelorMittal and BG Group Plc reported disappointing results and euro-area governments pressured Greece to increase spending cuts in return for aid.
Euro-area governments pressed Greece to make deeper spending cuts to keep aid flowing. With Greece pleading for a 31 billion-euro ($40 billion) aid payout in November and facing a sixth year of recession in 2013, euro finance ministers said unfreezing loans for the country required more efforts in Athens to rein in the budget deficit and deregulate the economy.
National benchmark indexes fell in 15 of the 18 western- European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 lost 1.2 percent, France’s CAC 40 slid 0.9 percent and Germany’s DAX slipped 0.3 percent.
ArcelorMittal lost 6.4 percent to 11.43 euros after it said earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization dropped 44 percent to $1.34 billion, in line with the median analyst estimate of $1.3 billion. The steelmaker also cut its 2013 dividend to save $1 billion as slowing Asian demand drags down prices and it attempts to cut debt. Next year’s payout will drop to 20 cents a share from the 75 cents planned for 2012.
Air France jumped 8.4 percent to 6.45 euros. Europe’s largest airline reported a 27 percent increase in third-quarter operating profit to 506 million euros as job cuts and improved summer traffic offset higher fuel costs. Analysts had predicted earnings of 434 million euros, based on the average of nine estimates.
Lufthansa rose 7.3 percent to 11.79 euros after Europe’s second-biggest airline posted a 6.2 percent increase in third- quarter operating profit to 648 million euros as a cost-savings program helped boost earnings. Analysts had estimated earnings of 522 million euros, based on nine estimates.
Fiat Industrial SpA climbed 3 percent to 8.36 euros. The truck and tractor manufacturer raised its 2012 sales target after reporting a 19 percent increase in third-quarter earnings before interest, taxes and one-time gains to 575 million euros. That beat the 505 million-euro average analyst estimate, amid higher demand for CNH farm equipment.
Oil rose as refineries resumed operations after Atlantic superstorm Sandy dissipated, increasing demand for crude oil.
Futures climbed as much as 1.8 percent as Philadelphia Energy Solutions’ 355,000-barrel-a-day Pennsylvania refinery restored operations. PBF Energy Inc. said two plants on the East Coast operated at reduced rates. Oil also climbed as the dollar weakened against the euro.
Philadelphia Energy’s Pennsylvania refinery “came through the storm without issues,” Cherice Corley, a spokeswoman at the plant, said in an e-mail yesterday.
PBF said Paulsboro, New Jersey, and Delaware City, Delaware, refineries operated at reduced rates overnight. The company said it’s “dealing with various logistical issues.”
Crude oil for December delivery increased to $87.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are down 5.6 percent this month and 12 percent this year.
Brent oil for December settlement rose 59 cents to $109.67 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark’s premium to the West Texas Intermediate contract traded in New York narrowed for a second day.
Gold rose for a second day, tracking gains in commodities, on speculation that the European crisis will be contained and as the dollar weakened, increasing demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment.
Euro-area finance chiefs discussed giving Greece more time to meet bailout targets. Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded products climbed to a record 2,587.92 metric tons yesterday.
In October, the business activity in the U.S. unexpectedly fell for the second month in a row, which again confirms the fact that the manufacturing sector has not played a central role in the reconstruction of the national economy. In September, the index of manufacturing activity rose from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 49.7 to 49.9. Recall that a value below 50 indicates negative dynamics. According to the median forecast of analysts, the index would be 51.
Importers of gold in India remain cautious on the weakening rupee and rising prices abroad. Demand for gold increases during festival season, culminating in November will be the Hindu festival of lights Diwali, as well as wedding season.
Gold futures for December delivery gained to $1,726 an ounce on the Comex in New York, paring the loss for October to 3 percent, the first decline since May.
Euro before the opening of trading in Europe rebounded from the lows at 1.2945, being able to break through 1.3000 against the end of the month.
Prices reached a high of 1.3022, then adjusted, dropping below 1.3000 to session lows at 1.2962.
At the moment the pair EUR / USD is balancing around 1.2970 after data on mortgage applications for MBA in the U.S., employment cost index for the 3rd quarter and the Chicago PMI (49.7 vs. 49.9 in October and forecasts 51.0).
During the teleconference of Eurogroup finance ministers failed to reach agreement on Greece, but Schaeuble said that the country has made some progress. However, in mid-November, the country may be bankrupt.
EUR/USD $1.2800, $1.2870, $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.2910, $1.2940, $1.2950
USD/JPY Y79.25, Y79.50, Y79.60, Y79.70, Y79.75, Y80.00
GBP/USD $1.6100
EUR/GBP stg0.8040, stg0.8100, stg0.8150
AUD/USD $1.0280, $1.0340, $1.0350
EUR/AUD A$1.2525
AUD/NZD NZ$1.2600
AUD/JPY Y81.25
U.S. stock-index futures advanced as equity markets in the world’s largest economy prepared to reopen after Hurricane Sandy.
Shares of the largest U.S. home-improvement retailer Home Depot Inc. (HD) climbed in pre-market trading following the storm. Shares of Walt Disney Co. (DIS) rose after agreeing to buy George Lucas’s Lucasfilm Ltd. for $4.05 billion.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,928.29 +86.31 +0.98%
Hang Seng 21,641.82 +213.24 +1.00%
Shanghai Composite 2,068.88 +6.53 +0.32%
FTSE 5,830.68 -19.22 -0.33%
CAC 3,461.58 +2.14 +0.06%
DAX 7,318.29 +33.89 +0.47%
Crude oil $86.18 +0,58%
Gold $1718.20 +0.36%
Фьючерсы растут на премаркете. Поддержку оказывают вчерашние данные по индексу цен на жилье от S&P/Case-Shiller, который по итогам августа вырос на 2,0% против прогноза +1,9% и значения за ибль +1,2%.
Позитивно на индексах отражаются ожидания данных по индексу деловой активности в производственном секторе Китая. Аналитики ожидают, что производственный индекс PMI Китая в октябре поднимется выше отметки 50 пунктов. Данные будут опубликованы завтра.
Поддерживает фьючерсы также рост некоторых крупных компаний, акции которых входят в состав индекса DOW:
Home Depot Inc (HD) и Walt Disney Co (DIS). Певые растут на фоне ожиданий роста выручки после прошедшего урагана, вторым поддержку оказывают сообщения о покупке киностудии Lucasfilm.
В целом, настроения до открытия рынков не указывают на продажи.
В S&P Capital IQ отметили: “История показывает, что, как правило, последствия ураганов не приводят к продажам на фондовом рынке”.
Data
00:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -
00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence October -28 -28 -30
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m September +8.8% +1.1% +7.8%
00:30 Australia Разрешения на строительство, г/г September -12.8% +2.1% 12.4%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m September +0.2% +0.2% +0.3%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September +4.1% +3.9% +4.0%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y September -5.5% +16.6% +15.5%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted September +0.1% +0.6% +1.5%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y September -1.1% -1.1% -3.1%
07:45 France Consumer spending September -0.8% +0.2% +0.1%
07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y September -0.6% -0.2% -0.3%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) October +2.7% +2.5% +2.5%
10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate September 11.5% 11.4% 11.6%
12:30 U.S. Employment Cost Index Quarter III +0.5% +0.5% +0.4%
12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) August +0.2% +0.2% -0.1%
The euro rose for a second day against the dollar and the yen on speculation that the Portuguese Parliament closer to budget negotiations, and due to the fact that the eurozone finance ministers will hold a conference call today.
The single currency strengthened against 13 of its 16 major counterparts ahead of the primary vote, Portuguese lawmakers on the budget for 2013.
The dollar fell after the Fed's Kocherlakota of Minneapolis, said yesterday that monetary policy is currently "too hard".
Note that the Portuguese parliament should hold a final vote on the budget on November 27. The coalition government is based on the Social Democrats and the conservative parties, which together have a majority of seats in the legislature. Today also presented his budget, the Greek Government.
The dollar index (DXY), which is used to track the value of the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. partner, fell 0.3% to 79.697.
The pound strengthened for a second day against the dollar on speculation that the Bank of England will refrain from further measures to stimulate the economy at the meeting, which is scheduled for next week.
EUR / USD: during the session, the pair showed rapid growth, setting all-time high at $ 1.3020, but now slightly decreased
GBP / USD: Trading in the exchange rate increased significantly, by setting high at $ 1.6135 and then retreated slightly
USD / JPY: the exchange rate is traded upward at maximum
At 13:30 GMT the United States will speak member of the Federal Open Market C. Raskin. At 13:45 GMT the U.S. will PMI Chicago in October. At 14:30 GMT the U.S. will become aware of the change oil according to the Department of Energy. At 16:25 GMT the United States will speak member Federal Open Market Committee D. Williams. At 18:00 GMT by an address by the head of the Bank of Canada Carney.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3100, $1.3080, $1.3040/50, $1.3020/25
Bids $1.2925/10, $1.2885/80, $1.2850
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6180, $1.6140/50
Bids $1.6090/80, $1.6050/40, $1.6010/00, $1.5975/65, $1.5950
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0550, $1.0500, $1.0450, $1.0400
Bids $1.0350, $1.0320, $1.0305/00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8100, stg0.8080
Bids stg0.8045/40, stg0.8025/20, stg0.8005-00, stg0.7980, stg0.7945/40
EUR/JPY
Offers Y104.50, Y104.20, Y104.00
Bids Y103.35/30, Y103.00, Y102.80, Y102.55/50
USD/JPY
Offers Y80.20/25, Y80.00
Bids Y79.40, Y79.20
Trading in Europe opened growth stocks. The reason for this was a positive corporate reports of European companies.
Create a negative background data on the labor market in Italy, where unemployment in September rose to 10.8%, its highest level since January 2004, thus affecting the level of unemployment in the euro area. Rose to 11.6%.
Also fell short of analysts' forecast data on the growth of retail sales in Germany and France.
FTSE 100 5,842.85 -7.05 -0.12%
CAC 40 3,472.37 +12.93 +0.37%
DAX 7,331.74 +47.34 +0.65%
Shares of oil and gas giant Total gained 1.6% due to the increase in net profit for the third quarter by 20% - up to 3.3 billion euros at the forecast of analysts 3.1 billion euros.
Capitalization airline Deutsche Lufthansa rose by 4.4%. After announcing data on the growth of profit in July-September, to 648 million euros from 610 million euros in the same period a year earlier (the forecast of analysts 522 million euros.)
Quotes of Air France-KLM rose 2.7% due to the increase in operating profit.
I think that Congress will take action to resolve the problem of the fiscal cliff
Fiscal breakage poses a risk to the U.S. economy in 2013
Inflation is expected to remain below the target level of 2%
It is better to focus on the purpose of the Fed, and not on the methods
The Fed did not do too much and its policy was not too soft
Forecasts suggest that the Fed's policy is "too hard, not too soft"
Fed forecasts for inflation and employment indicate room for further stimulus
I think that Congress will take action to resolve the problem of the fiscal cliff
Fiscal breakage poses a risk to the U.S. economy in 2013
Inflation is expected to remain below the target level of 2%
It is better to focus on the purpose of the Fed, and not on the methods
The Fed did not do too much and its policy was not too soft
Forecasts suggest that the Fed's policy is "too hard, not too soft"
Fed forecasts for inflation and employment indicate room for further stimulus
EUR/USD $1.2800, $1.2870, $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.2910, $1.2940, $1.2950
USD/JPY Y79.25, Y79.50, Y79.60, Y79.70, Y79.75, Y80.00
GBP/USD $1.6100
EUR/GBP stg0.8040, stg0.8100, stg0.8150
AUD/USD $1.0280, $1.0340, $1.0350
EUR/AUD A$1.2525
AUD/NZD NZ$1.2600
AUD/JPY Y81.25
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for its first advance in four days and paring its loss for the month, after U.S. home prices increased and South Korea’s industrial production expanded.
Nikkei 225 8,928.29 +86.31 +0.98%
S&P/ASX 200 4,517 +31.31 +0.70%
Shanghai Composite 2,068.88 +6.53 +0.32%
Canon Inc., a Japanese camera maker that gets 27 percent of its sales in the Americas, gained 1.5 percent.
Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. surged 6.7 percent after the maker of Subaru cars raised its profit forecast.
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. paced gains among mainland lenders listed in Hong Kong after earnings at the world’s largest bank by market value beat analyst estimates.
Yesterday the dollar fell the most in almost two weeks against the euro amid speculation damage from Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone Sandy will be less severe than earlier anticipated, damping demand for safer assets. The U.S. currency dropped against all its 16 major counterparts as European shares and U.S. stock futures rallied.
The euro strengthened after a Spanish report showed the economy contracted less in the third quarter than the central bank estimated last week.
The yen rose to a one-week high against the dollar after the BOJ expanded its asset-purchase program by 11 trillion yen to 66 trillion yen at a policy meeting in Tokyo. Fifteen economists forecast the BOJ to add 10 trillion yen to its 55 trillion yen program that buys assets such as government bonds, real estate investment trusts and stock funds. Four saw it increasing purchases by as much as 20 trillion yen.
The pound rose for the first time in three days against the dollar after a report showed an index of U.K. retail sales climbed to a four-month high in October, damping speculation the Bank of England will boost monetary stimulus. The data followed a report last week showing Britain’s GDP expanded 1 percent in the third quarter, as the nation emerged from a double-dip recession.
Most Asian stocks fell after the Bank of Japan’s expansion of its asset-purchase program failed to allay concern economic growth in the world’s third-largest economy is waning. Hurricane Sandy forced U.S. markets to shut for a second day.
Nikkei 225 8,841.98 -87.36 -0.98%
S&P/ASX 200 4,485.69 +8.83 +0.20%
Shanghai Composite 2,062.35 +3.40 +0.17%
Toyota Motor Corp. lost 0.5 percent, reversing earlier gains, after the central bank’s announcement. BYD Co., the Chinese automaker partially owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., tumbled 5.5 percent after saying profit may fall as much as 98 percent this year.
Sharp Corp. surged 6.2 percent in Tokyo on a report the maker of liquid-crystal displays is in partnership talks with Apple Inc. and Google Inc.
European stocks rose the most in two weeks as companies from BP Plc to Deutsche Bank AG reported earnings that topped estimates and U.S. house prices climbed.
Teleconference was held today between the Ministry of Finance of the Eurogroup, in which officials discussed the situation in Greece and how to get the country back on the path of sustained recovery ahead of the meeting, scheduled for November 12. Another meeting will be held tomorrow, at which EU leaders are going to help the problem state by another reduction program.
The Bank of Japan on Tuesday expanded the program of buying up assets and lending by 11 trillion yen to 91 trillion yen, and launched a program of unlimited long-term loans to banks at low rates.
The September unemployment rate in Germany was revised from 6.8% to 6.9%, remained unchanged in October. Spanish GDP surprised annual decline, the data on consumer confidence, though the eurozone improved slightly, but still remained weak. Italy sold five-and 10-year bonds at a lower yield, and the balance of sales in the UK, according to research by CBI, was 30 in October.
National benchmark indexes advanced in 15 of the 18 western-European markets. Germany’s DAX climbed 1 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 0.8 percent and France’s CAC 40 rallied 1.4 percent.
BP jumped 4.4 percent to 443.7 pence, the largest jump in 11 months. The company said third-quarter net income rose to $5.4 billion from $5 billion in the same period of 2011 and raised its dividend by 12.5 percent to 9 cents a share. Profit adjusted for one-time items and changes in inventory was $5.2 billion, compared with the average estimate of $4 billion.
Eni SpA added 2.1 percent to 17.69 euros as Italy’s largest oil producer reported third-quarter adjusted net income from continuing operations of 1.78 billion euros ($2.3 billion). Analysts had forecast 1.56 billion euros.
Deutsche Bank increased 4.5 percent to 34.80 euros. The lender said third-quarter profit rose 3 percent after investment-banking revenue exceeded targets. Net income climbed to 747 million euros in the three months through September from 725 million euros a year earlier, the company said. That beat the 563.9 million-euro average estimate of analysts.
UBS climbed 5.9 percent to 13.89 Swiss francs, its highest price since July 2011. The bank said it plans to save about 3.4 billion francs ($3.7 billion) in additional annual costs by the end of 2015 as it reduces headcount by 10,000 to about 54,000. The company will target a return on equity of at least 15 percent starting in 2015, compared with a previous goal of 12 percent to 17 percent.
Danske Bank slumped 9.4 percent to 94 kroner, its biggest drop since February 2011. Denmark’s largest lender said it plans to sell 7 billion kroner ($1.2 billion) in new shares as part of an effort to achieve a core Tier 1 capital ratio in excess of 13 percent by the end of next year.
The main U.S. stock markets are closed due to weather conditions
00:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -
00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence October -28 -28 -30
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m September +6.4% +1.1% +7.8%
00:30 Australia Разрешения на строительство, г/г September -15.4% +2.1% 12.4%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m September +0.2% +0.2% +0.3%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September +4.1% +3.9% +4.0%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y September -5.5% +16.6% +15.5%
The U.S. dollar weakened versus most of its 16 major peers on speculation reports tomorrow will show improvement in Chinese manufacturing, brightening the global economic outlook and damping demand for haven assets. Figures due tomorrow may show a manufacturing gauge based on a survey of purchasing managers in China, the world’s second- biggest economy, climbed to 50.2 this month from 49.8 in September, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The greenback remained lower after dropping yesterday against the yen as Asian stocks rose and U.S. capital markets prepared to reopen today after Atlantic storm Sandy swept through New York.
Appetite for the euro was tempered before data that may show unemployment in Europe climbed to a record, adding to signs the debt crisis is hurting growth. The jobless rate in the euro area probably climbed to an all-time high of 11.5 percent in September, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the European Union’s statistics office releases the data today.
The Australian and New Zealand currencies held gains after figures today showed better-than-expected building approvals. Australia’s statistics bureau said today the number of permits granted to build or renovate houses and apartments gained 7.8 percent in September from the previous month, exceeding economist estimates for a 1 percent advance. Building approvals in New Zealand also increased 7.8 percent in the month, according to a separate report, the fastest pace since March.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.2955-70.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6065-85.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y79.50-70.
At 1000GMT, the release of unemployment data for the eurozone is due to be published. The German government are due to conduct a press conference in Berlin at 1200GMT. At 1300GMT, Euro-area finance ministers are scheduled to hold a conference call on Greece. US data kicks off at 1100GMT with US MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ending October 26th. US data continues at 1230GMT, with the release of the US Employment Cost Index, which is expected to rise 0.4%in the third quarter following the 0.5% rise in the previous quarter. More US data is due at 1400GMT, with the release of the US October Help-wanted Online report.
Change % Change Last
Oil $85.72 +0.18 +0.21%
Gold $1,711.20 -0.90 -0.05%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,841.98 -87.36 -0.98%
S&P/ASX 200 4,485.69 +8.83 +0.20%
Shanghai Composite 2,062.35 +3.40 +0.17%
FTSE 100 5,849.9 +54.80 +0.95%
CAC 40 3,459.44 +50.55 +1.48%
DAX 7,284.4 +81.24 +1.13%
Dow closedNasdaq closed
S&P closed
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2962 +0,46%
GBP/USD $1,6079 +0,32%
USD/CHF Chf0,9320 -0,46%
USD/JPY Y79,59 -0,25%
EUR/JPY Y103,16 +0,20%
GBP/JPY Y127,96 +0,06%
AUD/USD $1,0364 +0,31%
NZD/USD $0,8211 +0,23%
USD/CAD C$0,9990 -0,19%
00:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -
00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence October -28 -28 -30
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m September +6.4% +1.1% +7.8%
00:30 Australia Разрешения на строительство, г/г September -15.4% +2.1% 12.4%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m September +0.2% +0.2% +0.3%
00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September +4.1% +3.9% +4.0%
05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y September -5.5% +16.6%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted September +0.3% +0.6%
07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y September -0.8% -1.1%
07:45 France Consumer spending September -0.8% +0.2%
07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y September -0.5% -0.2%
10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) October +2.6% +2.5%
10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate September 11.4% 11.4%
12:30 U.S. Employment Cost Index Quarter III +0.5% +0.5%
12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) August +0.2% +0.2%
13:30 U.S. FOMC Member Raskin Speaks -
13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index October 49.7 51.5
14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - +5.9
16:25 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -
18:00 Canada BOC Gov Carney Speaks -
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