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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 02-11-2012
The dollar advanced to a six-month high against the yen after the last jobs report before next week’s election showed hiring in the U.S. increased more than forecast. A net 171,000 workers were added to payrolls in October after a 148,000 gain the prior month that was more than first estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists called for an advance of 125,000. The jobless rate rose to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent as more people entered the labor force.
The U.S. currency strengthened to a three-week high against the euro amid confirmation that the euro-zone’s manufacturing sector contracted in October.
Japan’s currency headed for a third weekly decline against the dollar as economic weakness and disappointing corporate earnings spurred speculation the Bank of Japan will expand monetary stimulus.
The pound was down for the day against the dollar, and could not make a difference, even after a report showed that the index of business activity in the construction sector has exceeded the level of 50 in October and was 50.9, while analysts expected a drop in the index to the level of 49, 1 from 49.5 in September. Once the data released by the U.S., the pound continued to fall, but at a faster pace.
European stocks advanced to a two- week high as a report showed that hiring in the U.S. last month increased more than forecast.
As for the regional statistics have been issued on the production PMI Markit Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the eurozone. Spanish index fell more than expected, from 44.6 to 43.5 (vs. 44.0), Italian weakened from 45.7 to 45.5, as expected. French indicator rose from 42.7 to 46.0 vs. 45.7. The final euro-zone rose from 45.3 to 45.4, showing a small but unexpected change.
National benchmark indexes climbed in 16 of the 18 western European (SXXP) markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.1 percent. France’s CAC 40 rose 0.5 percent and Germany’s DAX added 0.4 percent.
Beiersdorf jumped 7.2 percent to 60.70 euros, the highest price since at least January 1996, after the maker of Nivea skin-care products raised its 2012 forecast for sales growth to as much as 4 percent, from a previous prediction of 3 percent.
A gauge of carmakers rose 1.2 percent for the second-best performance among the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600. BMW advanced 2.7 percent to 65 euros after saying U.S. sales climbed 21 percent in October. Daimler added 1.6 percent to 37.09 euros.
Alcatel-Lucent slumped 5.5 percent to 77.9 euro cents after posting a third-quarter net loss of 146 million euros, compared with a profit of 194 million euros a year earlier. The phone- equipment maker, whose shares have dropped 36 percent so far this year, is France’s most-shorted stock, based on data compiled by financial-information provider Markit, signaling a growing number of investors are predicting further declines.
Deutsche Telekom AG dropped 2.6 percent to 8.66 euros. The company may cut its dividend from next year by as much as a third, Handelsblatt reported, citing unidentified supervisory board members.
Oil fell for the first time in four days on speculation that the shutdown of refineries on the U.S. East Coast because of Hurricane Sandy will add to already ample stockpiles.
Futures headed for a third weekly drop as Phillips 66 and Hess Corp. (HES)’s New Jersey refineries remain shut four days after the storm struck. Crude inventories exceed 370 million barrels, the most for October in at least 10 years.
Oil also fell as U.S. stocks erased gains and the euro slipped to a three-week low against the dollar after a report showing that hiring in the U.S. rose more than forecast in October.
The euro dropped as much as 0.8 percent to $1.2837 after the Labor Department figures showed an improving U.S. employment picture. A stronger dollar and weaker euro reduce oil’s appeal as an investment alternative.
In the last jobs report before next week’s election, a net 171,000 workers were added to payrolls after a 148,000 gain in September that was more than first estimated. An advance of 125,000 was expected. The jobless rate rose to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent as more people entered the labor force, the figures showed.
Crude oil for December delivery fell to $85.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 0.6 percent this week and 13 percent this year.
Brent oil for December settlement slid 37 cents to $107.80 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Gold futures headed for the biggest drop in almost four months to below $1,700 an ounce as U.S. payrolls in October rose more than forecast, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to expand monetary stimulus.
A Labor Department report showed a net 171,000 workers were hired after a 148,000 gain in September that was more than estimated.
In addition, in September, factory orders in the U.S. slowed growth, but exceeded forecasts. Orders excluding defense and aircraft industry increased by 0.2% compared to 0.3% in August, while in July, the indicator has fallen by 5.6%, as the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The overall rate increased by 4.8%. Economists had expected a gain of 4.6%.
Importers of gold in India - the world's largest consumer of the precious metal - increasing their purchases at the height of the holiday season, which will culminate in November during festivals Diwali and Dhanteras.
Gold mining company AngloGold Ashanti on Friday suspended the work of one of the mines in South Africa because of the strike, and the world's largest gold producer, Barrick Gold Corp reported a sharp drop in profit in the third quarter.
Gold futures for December delivery tumbled to 1679.90 dollars per ounce on COMEX today.
The sharp appreciation of the dollar caused by these NFP (change in number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy), continues to have a negative impact on the dynamics of the single currency. Pair still down against the dollar, trading at the moment about a mark 1.2840. In addition, factory orders in U.S. unexpectedly rose 4.8% in September vs. 4.6%, further pressured the euro.
Talk about the refusal of ceiling for the euro / franc premature
In the lowest level of 1.20 for the EUR / CHF is still the right policy
Swiss franc is still high
EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.2960, $1.3000, $1.3100
GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6140, $1.6150
AUD/USD $1.0360, $1.0400
USD/JPY Y79.20, Y79.30, Y79.50, Y79.75, Y80.00
EUR/GBP stg0.7975, stg0.8050
EUR/AUD A$1.2355
U.S. stock futures rose as hiring increased more than forecast in October.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 9,051.22 +104.35 +1.17%
Hang Seng 22,111.33 +289.46 +1.33%
Shanghai Composite 2,117.05 +12.62 +0.60%
FTSE 5,886.31 +24.39 +0.42%
CAC 3,496.53 +21.13 +0.61%
DAX 7,382.28 +46.61 +0.64%
Crude oil $86.85 -0,28%
Gold $1695.30 -1.18%
Data
00:30 Australia Producer price index, q / q Quarter III +0.5% +1.0% +0.6%
00:30 Australia Producer price index, y/y Quarter III +1.1% +1.6% +1.1%
08:50 France Manufacturing PMI (finally) October 43.5 43.5 43.7
08:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (finally) October 45.7 45.7 46.0
09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (finally) October 45.3 45.3 45.4
09:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction October 49.5 49.1 50.9
12:30 Canada Unemployment rate October 7.4% 7.4% 7.4%
12:30 Canada Employment October 52.1 7.5 1.8
12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate October 7.8% 7.9% 7.9%
12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls October 114 120 171
12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings October +0.3% +0.2% +0.0%
12:30 U.S. Average workweek October 34.5 34.5 34.4
Today, during the day, the euro showed a steady and significant decline against the dollar ahead of the release of the change in the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy. Many market participants had pinned great hopes on him, and were pleasantly surprised when it became known that the number of employees increased by 171 thousand, which was much higher than forecast at 120 thousand Note also that positive news was the fact that the figure for the previous month was revised up from 114,000 to 148,000. At the same time, the data showed that the unemployment rate grew to 7.9%, which is fully in line with forecasts, and almost no effect on the mood of traders.
The Canadian dollar traded slightly lower against the dollar before the release of a report from the U.S. and Canadian data. But after the publication of the exchange rate has appreciated sharply. Note that the Canadian data were not as positive as in the U.S.. It is learned that the number of employees increased by only 1.8 thousand, while the projected growth of 7.5 thousand.
Pound during the day was down against the dollar, and could not make a difference, even after a report showed that the index of business activity in the construction sector has exceeded the level of 50 in October and was 50.9, while analysts expected a drop in the index to the level of 49, 1 from 49.5 in September. Once the data released by the U.S. the pound continued to fall, but at a faster pace.
Yen during trading showed a slight decline against the dollar, but after the publication of data from the U.S., the rate fell sharply while still achieving the highest level since April 27.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair set a minimum level of $ 1.2846, and is now trading at
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair showed a significant decline, setting all-time low of $ 1.6025
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose sharply to reach Y80.68
At 14:00 GMT the U.S. are data on factory orders for September. At 18:25 GMT the United States with a speech vіstupit member Federal Open Market Committee D. Williams.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3040/50, $1.3010/25, $1.2925/30
Bids $1.2850, $1.2815/00
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6180/85, $1.6150, $1.6120/25Bids $1.6050, $1.6010/00
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0550, $1.0500, $1.0450
Bids $1.0350, $1.0320, $1.0305/00
EUR/JPY
Offers Y104.50, Y104.20, Y104.00
Bids Y103.20, Y103.00, Y102.85/80, Y102.55/50USD/JPY
Offers Y80.80, Y80.40
Bids Y80.00, Y79.80/70, Y79.40
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8100, stg0.8080
Bids stg0.7950, stg0.7945/40
Trading in Europe start lowering the major indexes. This was a reaction to corporate reporting. ArcelorMittal shares fell by 6.4% due to lower quarterly profit up three-year low. Also negatively affected by the fact of reducing analysts Goldman Sachs forecast on Japan's GDP.
Small positive background created macroeconomic data. The index of business activity in France, Germany and the Eurozone was slightly above analysts' forecasts.
FTSE 100 5,861.25 -0.67 -0.01%
CAC 40 3,469.14 -6.26 -0.18%
DAX 7,335.88 +0.21 0.00%
BG Group Plc shares have fallen by 14%, due to lower energy production. Capitalization of Air France-KLM Group and Deutsche Lufthansa AG and raised to at least 7% after Europe's largest airline announced earnings exceeding analysts' forecasts.
EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.2960, $1.3000, $1.3100
GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6140, $1.6150
AUD/USD $1.0360, $1.0400
USD/JPY Y79.20, Y79.30, Y79.50, Y79.75, Y80.00
EUR/GBP stg0.7975, stg0.8050
EUR/AUD A$1.2355
Asian stocks rose after reports on U.S. employment and manufacturing topped estimates and confidence among American consumers climbed to a four-year high. A gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong rallied 20 percent from a September low.
Nikkei 225 9,051.22 +104.35 +1.17%
S&P/ASX 200 4,460.05 +2.40 +0.05%
Shanghai Composite 2,117.05 +12.62 +0.60%
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, climbed 1.8 percent.
Sands China Ltd., the Macau casino operator controlled by billionaire Sheldon Adelson, gained 4.8 percent as spending by middle-class Chinese gamblers boosted profit 17 percent.
Sharp Corp. slid 2.4 percent after the TV maker forecast a record loss and said there was “material doubt” about its survival.
Yesterday the dollar rose against the yen and the euro, as the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level in three weeks, and the index of manufacturing activity rose more than expected, adding evidence that the economy is recovering.
The pound rose to its highest level in two weeks against the dollar as a report showed that house prices in the UK jumped in October. Also today, it became known to increase UK economic forecasts for this year and next year.
The Japanese currency has weakened against the euro, as investors await the publication of minutes of the Bank of Japan, and amid speculation the central bank will hold a loosening of monetary policy in the future.
The dollar index, which is used to track the value of the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. partners, rose by 0.2% to 80.061.
The Canadian dollar strengthened to near three-month low against its U.S. counterpart as a sudden increase in production in the U.S., which is the largest trading partner of Canada raised the appetite for risk among investors.
Asian stocks fell as Panasonic Corp. led declines among Japanese electronics makers after forecasting a loss 30 times bigger than analysts estimated, overshadowing a report China’s manufacturing output expanded for the first time in three months.
Nikkei 225 8,946.87 +18.58 +0.21%
S&P/ASX 200 4,457.65 -59.35 -1.31%
Shanghai Composite 2,104.43 +35.55 +1.72%
Panasonic plunged 19 percent, the most since at least 1974, to lead declines on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.
Arrium Ltd. tumbled 13 percent after a consortium that includes Noble Group Ltd. and Posco dropped an attempt to buy the Australian steelmaker.
Wipro Ltd. climbed 3.5 percent in Mumbai after India’s third-largest software exporter agreed to separate its consumer care and lighting businesses.
European (SXXP) stocks advanced the most in two weeks amid better-than-forecast U.S. economic reports and a rebound in Chinese manufacturing.
Etablissements Maurel & Prom led the rally, surging 8.3 percent after three people familiar with the matter said China Petrochemical Corp. is considering a takeover offer for the French oil explorer. British Sky Broadcasting Group Plc climbed 7.1 percent after first-quarter operating profit beat analyst estimates. Croda International Plc (CRDA), the world’s second-largest maker of cosmetic ingredients, dropped 1.3 percent.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.3 percent to 273.7 at the close in London, its biggest gain since Oct. 16.
Consumer confidence in the U.S. climbed in October to the highest in more than four years. The Conference Board’s index increased to 72.2, the highest since February 2008, from a revised 68.4 in September. The figure was projected to rise to 73, according to the median estimate of economists.
Another report showed manufacturing in the world’s largest economy expanded at a faster pace than forecast. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index climbed to 51.7 last month from 51.5 in September. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
National benchmark indexes rose in 13 of the 16 western European markets that were open today.
Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) jumped 8.3 percent to 43.94 pence, the highest price since July, 2011. Britain’s biggest mortgage lender said the amount it pays out each month to settle payment protection insurance claims fell to 250 million pounds in the third quarter from 300 million pounds in the second half.
Cie. Financiere Richemont SA, the owner of the Cartier brand, gained 4.9 percent to 63.35 Swiss francs after Bank of America Corp. raised the stock to buy from underperform.
Swatch Group AG (UHR), the world’s largest watchmaker, increased 4.8 percent to 403.90 francs. Christian Dior SA (CDI) rose 3.3 percent to 114.45 euros, while LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA (MC) advanced 2.6 percent to 128.60 euros.
Croda declined 1.3 percent to 2,172 pence. The company posted a third-quarter continuing operating profit of 59.70 million pounds, missing the analyst estimate of 63.96 million.
Major U.S. stock indexes retreated from session highs, but still ended the session in a significant growth
Positive trend in the first of the month index provided the macroeconomic data, which were better than expected.
The session support indices had a strong employment data from ADP and the index of business activity in the industrial sector in China.
Later, the positive sentiment in the market supported by statistics ISM manufacturing index and the index of consumer confidence in the United States.
The manufacturing index of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) for October rose to 51.7 vs. 51.2 points and values for September 51.5. Consumer confidence was lower than forecast (72.2 vs. 72.4), but compared with September index increased significantly (the September value 70.3).
Be borne in mind that in spite of the current rise, many investors prefer to stay out of the market ahead of the U.S. presidential election to be held next week. Against this background, the probability of continuation of today's rally is low.
Most of the components of the index DOW surged in red are only three components: Wal-Mart (WMT, -2.36%), Pfizer (PFE, -1.25%) and The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV, -1,21%). More than others in the share price rose Bank of America Corporation (BAC, +4.29%), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT, +3.36%) and Caterpillar Inc. (CAT, +3.28%).
All major sectors except one grow. More than other sectors of manufactured goods rose (+1.7%), and conglomerates sector (+1.7%). The fall shows only the utility sector (-0.4%)
At the close:
Dow +136.16 13,232.62 +1.04%
Nasdaq +42.83 3,020.06 +1.44%
S & P +15.43 1,427.59 +1.09%
00:30 Australia Producer price index, q / q Quarter III +0.5% +1.0% +0.6%
00:30 Australia Producer price index, y/y Quarter III +1.1% +1.6% +1.1%
The yen extended weekly drops against its major peers as signs of economic weakness along with earnings disappointments at technology companies spurred speculation the Bank of Japan will expand monetary easing. The currency held a three-day slide versus the euro after minutes of Oct. 4-5 policy meeting showed BOJ board members said the nation may have entered a recessionary phase.
The dollar was 0.2 percent from a four-month high versus the yen after U.S. data fanned expectations employment figures today will point to a recovery in the world’s biggest economy. The U.S. Labor Department is likely to say today that a net 125,000 jobs were added to payrolls last month following an increase of 114,000 in September, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The unemployment rate probably rose to 7.9 percent from a three-year low of 7.8 percent, a separate survey showed. Applications for jobless benefits fell 9,000 to 363,000 in the week ended Oct. 27, the Labor Department said yesterday. A separate report from ADP Research Institute showed that companies increased payrolls in October by 158,000, the most since February.
Implied volatility of three-month options for G-7 currencies fell to 7.37 percent, the lowest since October 2007, according to the JPMorgan G7 Volatility Index. A decrease in price fluctuations makes investments in currencies with higher lending rates more attractive because risk becomes smaller that market moves will erase profits on such trades.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to the previous day's low.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.6100.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y80.30, updating weekly high.
Change % Change Last
Oil $86.97 -0.12 -0.14%
Gold $1,716.20 +0.70 +0.04%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,946.87 +18.58 +0.21%
S&P/ASX 200 4,457.65 -59.35 -1.31%
Shanghai Composite 2,104.43 +35.55 +1.72%
FTSE 100 5,857.29 +74.59 +1.29%
CAC 40 3,472.16 +42.89 +1.25%
DAX 7,327.2 +66.57 +0.92%
Dow +136.16 13,232.62 +1.04%
Nasdaq +42.83 3,020.06 +1.44%
S&P +15.43 1,427.59 +1.09%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2942 -0,11%
GBP/USD $1,6123 -0,04%
USD/CHF Chf0,9315 -0,01%
USD/JPY Y80,14 +0,42%
EUR/JPY Y103,72 +0,33%
GBP/JPY Y129,20 +0,39%
AUD/USD $1,0400 +0,24%
NZD/USD $0,8262 +0,47%
USD/CAD C$0,9965 -0,35%
00:30 Australia Producer price index, q / q Quarter III +0.5% +1.0% +0.6%
00:30 Australia Producer price index, y/y Quarter III +1.1% +1.6% +1.1%
08:50 France Manufacturing PMI (finally) October 43.5 43.5
08:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (finally) October 45.7 45.7
09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (finally) October 45.3 45.3
09:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction October 49.5 49.1
12:30 Canada Unemployment rate October 7.4% 7.4%
12:30 Canada Employment October 52.1 7.5
12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate October 7.8% 7.9%
12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls October 114 120
12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings October +0.3% +0.2%
12:30 U.S. Average workweek October 34.5 34.5
14:00 U.S. Factory Orders September -5.2% +4.7%
18:25 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks -
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