CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 01-11-2012

The dollar rose against the yen and the euro, as the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level in three weeks, and the index of manufacturing activity rose more than expected, adding evidence that the economy is recovering.

The pound rose to its highest level in two weeks against the dollar as a report showed that house prices in the UK jumped in October. Also today, it became known to increase UK economic forecasts for this year and next year.

The Japanese currency has weakened against the euro, as investors await the publication of minutes of the Bank of Japan, and amid speculation the central bank will hold a loosening of monetary policy in the future.

The dollar index, which is used to track the value of the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. partners, rose by 0.2% to 80.061.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to near three-month low against its U.S. counterpart as a sudden increase in production in the U.S., which is the largest trading partner of Canada raised the appetite for risk among investors.

European (SXXP) stocks advanced the most in two weeks amid better-than-forecast U.S. economic reports and a rebound in Chinese manufacturing.

Etablissements Maurel & Prom led the rally, surging 8.3 percent after three people familiar with the matter said China Petrochemical Corp. is considering a takeover offer for the French oil explorer. British Sky Broadcasting Group Plc climbed 7.1 percent after first-quarter operating profit beat analyst estimates. Croda International Plc (CRDA), the world’s second-largest maker of cosmetic ingredients, dropped 1.3 percent.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.3 percent to 273.7 at the close in London, its biggest gain since Oct. 16.

Consumer confidence in the U.S. climbed in October to the highest in more than four years. The Conference Board’s index increased to 72.2, the highest since February 2008, from a revised 68.4 in September. The figure was projected to rise to 73, according to the median estimate of economists.

Another report showed manufacturing in the world’s largest economy expanded at a faster pace than forecast. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index climbed to 51.7 last month from 51.5 in September. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

National benchmark indexes rose in 13 of the 16 western European markets that were open today.

Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) jumped 8.3 percent to 43.94 pence, the highest price since July, 2011. Britain’s biggest mortgage lender said the amount it pays out each month to settle payment protection insurance claims fell to 250 million pounds in the third quarter from 300 million pounds in the second half.

Cie. Financiere Richemont SA, the owner of the Cartier brand, gained 4.9 percent to 63.35 Swiss francs after Bank of America Corp. raised the stock to buy from underperform.

Swatch Group AG (UHR), the world’s largest watchmaker, increased 4.8 percent to 403.90 francs. Christian Dior SA (CDI) rose 3.3 percent to 114.45 euros, while LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA (MC) advanced 2.6 percent to 128.60 euros.

Croda declined 1.3 percent to 2,172 pence. The company posted a third-quarter continuing operating profit of 59.70 million pounds, missing the analyst estimate of 63.96 million.

• Inflation is and will remain about the Fed's target of 2%

• Consumer activity is growing at a moderate pace

• Housing sector is showing signs of improvement

• I want to see a drop in unemployment, an increase in the labor force

• The labor market can not be assessed only on the basis of a single indicator

• The labor market is difficult to measure

• The Fed wants to see a substantial improvement in the labor market

• Monetary policy is "very soft"

• Fed policy - is "an aggressive attack" on the weakness in the labor market

• Fed stimulus aims to put the economy on a sound footing

• Expect to see a "modest" growth, the gradual increase in employment

Oil rose to one-week high after the Energy Department reported that crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, and as stocks gained amid increasing optimism that the U.S. economy is accelerating.

Futures rose after the Department said that oil stocks fell 2.05 million barrels to 373.1 million level last week. This value has surprised many economists, as they had expected growth of 1.8 million barrels. Shares rose amid better-than-expected economic reports, as well as after the manufacturing Institute for Supply Management index reached a five-month high in October.

Note also that oil production in the U.S. rose for the eighth week to 6.67 million barrels a day, which is the maximum in January 1995. At the same time, oil imports fell 10% to 7.92 million barrels a day.

Gasoline inventories rose by 935,000 barrels to 199.5 million level million, compared to expectations at around 850,000 barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 93,000 barrels to 117.9 million, versus the expected decline of 1.4 million barrels

Also, data released today showed that confidence among U.S. consumers rose in October to four-year high, and reached the level of 72.2. Recall that in September the figure was 68.4 points.

Crude oil futures also rose after China said that the purchasing managers' index rose to 50.2 in October from 49.8 in September, while showing the first increase in four months.

December futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 87.06 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

December futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell 19 cents to 108.27 dollars a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

During the day, the price of gold showed a significant increase, due to the growth in the stock markets and an increase in appetite for riskier assets, but prices have dropped after the published data from the U.S. showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance declined.

At the same time, many investors are now awaiting data on employment in the non-agricultural sector of the U.S., which will be presented tomorrow.

Analysts predict that the economy added 125,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate rose to 7.9% from 7.8%.

Note that the U.S. stock indexes rose at the open, while European shares were supported by a report from the Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L).

Also today, the rise in gold prices was caused by the data from China, which showed that the PMI index of manufacturing activity rose to 50.2 from 49.8 in September, indicating expansion in the sector.

Technical analysis showed that the spot price of gold may rise in the near future to reach $ 1736 an ounce, as evidenced by the analysis of the channel and Fibonacci analysis.

Also note that support is now at $ 1693 and $ 1661.

The physical market traders in India have taken a wait and expect further price correction to buy. Rates to rise in prices due to the fact that Indian demand will grow this month amid the peak festival season.

Note also that the Russian gold mining companies, gold production increased by 3.1% in the first nine months of 2012 compared to the same period last year.

December futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1717.80 dollars per ounce.

The UK's Debt Management Office announced Thursday that it sold Stg900 million of the 0.75% Mar 2047 index-linked Gilt, with a cover of 1.75 times and a real yield 0.294%.

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2915, $1.2965, $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3120, $1.3130

USD/JPY Y80.00, Y79.50, Y79.35, Y79.30, Y79.25

EUR/JPY Y104.00, Y104.10

GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6120

EUR/GBP stg0.8000

AUD/USD $1.0450, $1.0400, $1.0350, $1.0330, $1.0275

AUD/JPY Y82.20, Y82.60

U.S. stock-index futures rose amid better-than-estimated jobs data and as investors awaited a report on manufacturing to help assess the strength of the economy before the presidential election.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  8,946.87 +18.58 +0.21%
Hang Seng 21,821.87 +180.05 +0.83%
Shanghai Composite 2,104.43 +35.55 +1.72%
FTSE  5,826.52 +43.82 +0.76%
CAC  3,454.46 +25.19 +0.73%
DAX 7,311.97 +51.34 +0.71%
Crude oil $86.15 -0,10%
Gold $1722.90 +0.22%

After the ADP employment report for October, EUR / USD rose to 1.2966. The index fell by only 4 thousand from 162 thousand to 158 thousand, while analysts expected a decline to 135 thousand

Data on applications for unemployment benefits have been conflicting. Primary applications fell more than expected from 372 million (revised from 369 thousand) to 363 million (forecast 370 thousand), while repeated applications rose from 3,259 million (revised from 3.254 million) to 3,263 million . (forecast 3.250 million). increased from 33,816 thousand to 47,724 thousand

Couple updated intraday high 1.2982 and is now trading at at 1.2970 after data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, which slightly fell short of projections (October 51.0, forecast 51.5)

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3040/50, $1.3010/25, $1.2980 

Bids $1.2925/20, $1.2900, $1.2885/80, $1.2850, $1.2815/00

 07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index October -0.4% +0.2% +0.6%

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y October -1.4% -1.2% -0.9%
08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y September +5.9% +6.4% +5.4%
08:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI October 43.6 44.6 46.1
09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing October 48.4 48.1 47.5
 

The euro fell in early European session against the dollar amid media reports that Spain intends to extend the ban on short selling for 3 more months - it indicates that the authorities are still trying to restore confidence in the domestic market.

Greek PMI in the manufacturing sector declined in October from 42.1 to 41.0.

Later the euro rebounded on expectations of statistics from the United States, including the manufacturing ISM, apply for unemployment benefits and consumer confidence.

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar after the release of statistics. Swiss PMI rose from 43.6 to 46.1 (forecast 44.5). Swiss retail sales fell from +6.0% to +5.4% in September (forecast +4.2%).

Pound is rising against the dollar despite the fact that in October, the British PMI in the manufacturing sector fell to 45.7 against 48.1 the previous month, as reported today by the agency Markit. Analysts had expected the rate will remain unchanged.

Yen is approaching a minimum of four months against the dollar sales by Japanese importers and worsening forecasts for the Japanese economy. Recent data from Japan, including quarterly reports of companies, disappointing, and analysts expect coming Nov. 11 report on third quarter GDP will decrease it. Yen drops on the eve of tomorrow's publication of minutes of meetings of the Bank of Japan, which was held October 4-5. It is expected that the document will be discussed further easing of monetary policy by the central bank.

The Australian dollar rose to a two-week high after PMI index in the industry of the PRC in October exceeded the critical level of 50%. So in October, the index of purchasing managers in the Chinese industry has grown over September to 50.2%. This is reported by the State Department of Statistics of China and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. Experts note that the gradual recovery of PMI index indicates a possible restoration of economic growth in China. The index measures changes in business activity in the sector of the economy, its value is less than 50% indicates a decline in activity, more than 50% - of its growth, values ​​close to 50%, say stagnation.

EUR / USD: during the European session the  pair updated low $ 1.2924 and then recovered in the area of ​​$ 1.2965

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair updated high of $ 1.6175

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y79.91

European stocks advanced, after the Stoxx Europe 600 Index completed its fifth monthly rally yesterday, as investors awaited a report that may show U.S. consumer confidence rose and as Chinese manufacturing expanded.

China’s manufacturing expanded for the first time in three months as output and new orders climbed, adding to signs growth in the world’s second-biggest economy is rebounding after a seven-quarter slowdown.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 50.2 in October from 49.8 in September, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said. A separate survey from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics increased to an eight-month high.

Croda slumped 4.6 percent to 2,099 pence. The company posted a third-quarter continuing operating profit of 59.70 million pounds, missing the analyst estimate of 63.96 million. Chairman Martin Flower said he expects a similar performance in the fourth quarter as in the third quarter amid a weak market, particularly in Europe.

BG Group Plc, the U.K.’s third-largest natural-gas producer, dropped 5.5 percent to 1,084 pence. The stock extended yesterday’s biggest decline since at least September 1988, as analysts at Bank of America, Societe Generale SA and Macquarie Securities Ltd. lowered their recommendations. BG Group plunged 14 percent yesterday after saying project delays will hold back output growth next year.

FTSE 100 5,807.41 +24.71 +0.43%

CAC 40 3,449.16 +19.89 +0.58%

DAX 7,302.53 +41.90 +0.58%

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2915, $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3130

USD/JPY Y79.50, Y79.30, Y79.25

EUR/JPY Y104.00

GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6120

EUR/GBP stg0.8000, stg0.8150

AUD/USD $1.0275

AUD/JPY Y82.20

Asian stocks fell as Panasonic Corp. led declines among Japanese electronics makers after forecasting a loss 30 times bigger than analysts estimated, overshadowing a report China’s manufacturing output expanded for the first time in three months.

Nikkei 225 8,946.87 +18.58 +0.21%

S&P/ASX 200 4,457.65 -59.35 -1.31%

Shanghai Composite 2,104.43 +35.55 +1.72%

Panasonic plunged 19 percent, the most since at least 1974, to lead declines on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.

Arrium Ltd. tumbled 13 percent after a consortium that includes Noble Group Ltd. and Posco dropped an attempt to buy the Australian steelmaker.

Wipro Ltd. climbed 3.5 percent in Mumbai after India’s third-largest software exporter agreed to separate its consumer care and lighting businesses.

Yesterday the euro rose for a second day versus and yen as European governments pressed Greece to make deeper spending cuts to keep aid flowing as they pushed to resolve the region’s three-year-old sovereign-debt crisis.

The 17-nation currency earlier erased a gain against the dollar after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the timely payment of Greece’s next tranche of aid was “ambitious.” It strengthened earlier against most of its 16 major peers before Portuguese lawmakers hold an initial vote tomorrow on the 2013 budget proposal.

With Greece pleading for a 31 billion-euro ($40 billion) aid payout in November and facing a sixth year of recession in 2013, euro finance ministers said unfreezing loans for the country required more efforts in Athens to rein in the budget deficit and deregulate the economy.

The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, was little changed at 79.897.

U.S. stock markets erased an earlier gain as trading resumed after a two-day shutdown for Hurricane Sandy, which broke up over Pennsylvania after battering the East Coast since Oct. 29.

The pound strengthened for a second day against the dollar amid speculation the Bank of England will refrain from adding monetary stimulus to the economy when it meets next week. The central bank will announce on Nov. 8 whether to increase its target for asset purchases, or quantitative easing, from 375 billion pounds ($604 billion) after data last week showed gross domestic product expanded 1 percent last quarter as the economy emerged from a recession.

The Canadian dollar fell after the August 2012 Canadian GDP unexpectedly fell by 0.1% compared to 0.2% in July. Governor of the Bank of Canada Carney reiterated that "eventually" may need to raise interest rates.

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for its first advance in four days and paring its loss for the month, after U.S. home prices increased and South Korea’s industrial production expanded.

Nikkei 225 8,928.29 +86.31 +0.98%

S&P/ASX 200 4,517 +31.31 +0.70%

Shanghai Composite 2,068.88 +6.53 +0.32%

Canon Inc., a Japanese camera maker that gets 27 percent of its sales in the Americas, gained 1.5 percent.

Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. surged 6.7 percent after the maker of Subaru cars raised its profit forecast.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. paced gains among mainland lenders listed in Hong Kong after earnings at the world’s largest bank by market value beat analyst estimates.

00:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q Quarter III +2.4% -1.0% -2.4%

00:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q Quarter III +1.0% -6.4% -6.4%

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI October 49.8 50.3 50.2

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (finally) October 49.1 49.1 49.5

05:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y October -14.9% -16.0%

Change % Change Last

Oil $86.18 -0.06 -0.07%

Gold $1,721.50 +2.40 +0.14%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,928.29 +86.31 +0.98%

S&P/ASX 200 4,517 +31.31 +0.70%

Shanghai Composite 2,068.88 +6.53 +0.32%

FTSE 100 5,782.7 -67.20 -1.15%

CAC 40 3,429.27 -30.17 -0.87%

DAX 7,260.63 -23.77 -0.33%

Dow 13,096.39 -10.82 -0.08%

Nasdaq 2,977.23 -10.72 -0.36%

S&P 500 1,412.15 +0.21 +0.01% 

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2956 -0,05%

GBP/USD $1,6130 +0,32%

USD/CHF Chf0,9316 -0,04%

USD/JPY Y79,80 +0,26%

EUR/JPY Y103,38 +0,21%

GBP/JPY Y128,69 +0,57%

AUD/USD $1,0375 +0,11%

NZD/USD $0,8223 +0,15%

USD/CAD C$1,0000 +0,10%

00:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q Quarter III +2.4% -1.0% -2.4%

00:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q Quarter III +1.0% -6.4% -6.4%

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI October 49.8 50.3 50.2

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (finally) October 49.1 49.1 49.5

05:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y October -14.9%

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index October -0.4% +0.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y October -1.4% -1.2%

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y September +5.9% +6.4%

08:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI October 43.6 44.6

09:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing October 48.4 48.1

12:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report October 162 139

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 369 371

12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (preliminary) Quarter III +2.2% +1.3%

13:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (finally) October 51.3 51.5

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence October 70.3 72.4

14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing October 51.5 51.2

14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m September -0.6% +0.7%

15:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - +5.9

16:30 U.S. FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks -

23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes -