CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 05-10-2012

The euro rose against the dollar and the yen against the U.S. improve statistics on the labor market. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8% in September, mainly due to the increase of employment of Americans to work part time, and off-farm employment increased by 114 thousand (the August value was revised to 142 million). The average duration of the week and hourly wage also rose last month.

With regard to regional statistics, the German factory orders for August fell short of expectations: the indicator fell by 4.8% y / y after the July decline of 4.6% and -4.3% forecast. In monthly terms orders fell by 1.3% vs. -0.5%. In the 2nd quarter of eurozone GDP fell by 0.2% after falling 0.3% in the previous quarter. This result coincided with analysts' forecasts. Spanish industrial output came out better than expected, although it remained in negative territory (-3.2% vs. prev. -5.4% And -5.5% of the forecast).

The yen earlier rose against major currencies after the Bank of Japan decided not to change the course of monetary policy. The Bank of Japan on Friday left its benchmark interest rate in the range of 0-0.1%. The total amount of incentive programs Bank of Japan kept at 80 trillion yen (just over $ 1 trillion), including a program of emergency loans to banks - 25 trillion yen asset repurchase program, expanded in the past month - 55 trillion yen. CB solutions line with expectations of economists.

The Canadian dollar was higher against the U.S. dollar after the rate of employment in Canada increased more than five times faster than economists' forecasts, with increased job full-time, starting from the retail sector and to construction. However, the unemployment rate also rose, with increased labor force. Employment rose by 52,100 in September, after rising by 34,300 in August, according to statistics office today. Unemployment rate increased to 7.4% from 7.3%, and the labor force increased by 72,600.

European stocks climbed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 posting its first weekly advance in three, after a report showed the U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly declined in September.

The economy added 114,000 workers last month after a revised 142,000 gain in August that was more than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The jobless rate dropped from 8.1 percent and hourly earnings climbed more than forecast.

ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated during a press conference in Slovenia yesterday that the central bank won’t start intervening in bond markets until governments like Spain request a bailout and agree to conditions. He also ruled out allowing the ECB to take losses in any further Greek debt restructuring and damped speculation of another interest-rate cut.

National benchmark indexes rose in all of the 18 western European markets except Iceland. France’s CAC 40 advanced 1.6 percent, Germany’s DAX climbed 1.3 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.7 percent.

Gauges of banks and automakers on the Stoxx 600 were the best performers of the index’s 19 industry groups. BNP Paribas, France’s biggest bank, rallied 3.5 percent to 39.39 euros. BMW advanced 2.1 percent to 60.99 euros.

Burberry rallied 2.8 percent to 1,028 pence. Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation on the stock to overweight, the equivalent of a buy rating, from equal weight.

Oil headed for a third weekly drop in New York as signals that supply is exceeding demand outweighed an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate.

Futures are set to cap the longest run of weekly decreases since June after an Energy Department report on Oct. 3 showed U.S. crude output rose to 6.52 million barrels a day last week, the most since December 1996. Prices pared their descent earlier when government data showed the U.S. added 114,000 jobs last month as the jobless rate fell to 7.8 percent.

Crude oil for November delivery fell to $89.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are down 2 percent this week.

Brent oil for November settlement slipped 79 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $111.79 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Gold futures fell from the highest in almost 11 months after the unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to expand monetary stimulus. Silver also slid.

The jobless rate in September declined to 7.8 percent from 8.1 percent, government data showed today. Earlier, gold reached a 10-month high close to $1,800 an ounce on speculation that stimulus programs in the U.S., Europe and Japan enhanced the appeal of the metal as an alternative to currencies.

In India - the world's largest consumer of gold - an increased demand in the physical market by strengthening rupee, which caused lower domestic prices to a minimum of five weeks.

Stocks of gold-ETFs ETF on Thursday rose by 418,611 ounces, and the stocks of the largest ETF SPDR Gold Trust rose to a record level 1.333,44 tons.

October futures price of gold on COMEX today dropped to 1780.7 dollars per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.2975, $1.3000, $1.3020, $1.3050, $1.3100

USD/JPY Y78.00, Y78.50, Y79.00

GBP/USD $1.6125, $1.6100

EUR/GBP stg0.8050

USD/CHF Chf0.9200, Chf0.9370

EUR/CHF Chf1.2100

AUD/USD $1.0150, $1.0160, $1.0200, $1.0225, $1.0250

USD/CAD C$0.9845, C$0.9900

Data:

07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves September 418.4 429.3

07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference -

08:00 Switzerland KOF Institute Economic Forecast IV quarter

09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (finally) Quarter II -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (finally) Quarter II -0.5% -0.4%

10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) August +0.5% -0.4% -1.3%

10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) August -4.5% -4.3% -4.8%

The euro held in a narrow range against the dollar in the standby power of statistics on the labor market in the U.S.. The market expects that the number of jobs outside agriculture in the U.S. in September rose by 111,000. The lower rate will revive fears that the economic slowdown world's largest economy is more stable than expected by some.

The euro has remained stable after the regional statistics. German Factory Orders for August fell short of expectations: the indicator fell by 4.8% y / y after July's decline of 4.6% and -4.3% forecast. In monthly terms orders fell by 1.3% vs. -0.5%.

In the 2nd quarter of eurozone GDP fell by 0.2% after falling 0.3% in the previous quarter. This result coincided with analysts' forecasts. Spanish industrial output came out better than expected, although it remained in negative territory (-3.2% vs. prev. -5.4% And -5.5% of the forecast).

The yen earlier rose against major currencies after the Bank of Japan decided not to change the course of monetary policy. The Bank of Japan on Friday left its benchmark interest rate in the range of 0-0.1%. The total amount of incentive programs Bank of Japan kept at 80 trillion yen (just over $ 1 trillion), including a program of emergency loans to banks - 25 trillion yen asset repurchase program, expanded in the past month - 55 trillion yen. CB solutions line with expectations of economists.

EUR/USD

Offers  $1.3100, $1.3030-50

Bids  $1.2980/70, $1.2920/00

European stocks climbed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index heading for its first weekly gain in three, before a report that may show U.S. payrolls expanded at a faster pace last month.

The U.S. economy created 115,000 jobs last month, up from 96,000 in the prior period, economists forecast before today’s Labor Department report. Earlier this week, a release from ADP Employer Services said companies added 162,000 jobs last month, exceeding economists’ estimates.

ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated during a press conference in Slovenia yesterday that the central bank won’t start intervening in bond markets until governments like Spain request a bailout and agree to conditions. He also ruled out allowing the ECB to take losses in any further Greek debt restructuring and damped speculation of another interest-rate cut.

The prime ministers of Italy, Spain, and France meet at a summit of Mediterranean leaders in Malta today.

Gauges of automakers and oil companies on the Stoxx 600 were among the best performers of the index’s 19 industry groups. BMW advanced 1.3 percent to 60.52 euros. Technip, Europe’s second-largest oilfield-services provider, jumped 2.7 percent to 89.71 euros.

Burberry rallied 1.3 percent to 1,013 pence. Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation on the stock to overweight, the equivalent of a buy rating, from equal weight.

FTSE 100 5,852.21 +24.43 +0.42%
CAC 40 3,428.24 +27.04 +0.80%
DAX 7,348.81 +43.60 +0.60%

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.2975, $1.3000, $1.3020, $1.3050, $1.3100

USD/JPY Y78.00, Y78.50, Y79.00

GBP/USD $1.6125, $1.6100

EUR/GBP stg0.8050

USD/CHF Chf0.9200, Chf0.9370

EUR/CHF Chf1.2100

AUD/USD $1.0150, $1.0160, $1.0200, $1.0225, $1.0250

USD/CAD C$0.9845, C$0.9900

Asian stocks rose, with the benchmark regional index set to gain for the first week in three, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the bank stands ready to buy bonds to ease the region’s debt crisis and as U.S. economic data beat estimates. ECB PresidentDraghi said the central bank is ready to start buying government bonds of indebted euro nations as soon as the necessary conditions are fulfilled. The ECB yesterday kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a historic low of 0.75 percent.

Nikkei 225 8,863.3 +38.71 +0.44%

S&P/ASX 200 4,494.4 +42.05 +0.94%

Shanghai Composite 2,086.17 +29.85 +1.45%

Brother Industries Ltd., a Japanese office-equipment maker that gets 28 percent of sales in Europe, advanced 2.5 percent.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, rose 1 percent after a gauge of commodity prices yesterday climbed by the most in two months.

LG Display Co. slid 4.5 percent in Seoul after Korea Investment & Securities cut its rating on the stock, saying television and notebook panel prices may fall.

• Watching if Japan prices move in right direction

• Price view not linked automatically to policy

• Japan govt understands BOJ policy stance

• Always watching FX impact on econ, prices

• can't buy foreign bonds that would affect fx rates

• To review if Japan can hit +1% CPI in Oct 30 report

•  

  Watching if Japan prices move in right direction

   

• Price view not linked automatically to policy

• Japan govt understands BOJ policy stance

• Always watching FX impact on econ, prices

• can't buy foreign bonds that would affect fx rates

• To review if Japan can hit +1% CPI in Oct 30 report

Yesterday the euro rose for a sixth day versus the yen, the longest run since March, as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the currency was irreversible and the ECB’s decision to start buying bonds helped ease tensions.

The 17-nation currency gained the most in almost three weeks versus the dollar after Draghi said the ECB was ready to start buying government bonds from nations such as Spain as soon as the necessary conditions are met.

The ECB is ready to undertake bond purchases under its plan known as Outright Monetary Transactions “once all the prerequisites are in place,” Draghi said at a press conference in Ljubljana, Slovenia. At last month’s conference, Draghi unveiled a program of unlimited debt buying to cap borrowing costs for debt-ridden nations.

The ECB left its benchmark rate at a record low of 0.75 percent.

Spain sold a combined 3.99 billion euros ($5.19 billion) of two-, three-and five-year notes today as investors debated whether the nation will ask for an international bailout. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy this week denied he has any immediate plans to do so.

The greenback stayed lower versus most major peers as claims for U.S. jobless benefits rose less than forecast, encouraging investors to buy higher- returning assets. U.S. Labor Department data showed applications for jobless benefits increased 4,000 to 367,000 in the week ended Sept. 29. A survey forecast 370,000 claims.

The pound strengthened versus the dollar after the Bank of England left its asset-purchase target at 375 billion pounds ($604 billion) at its monthly gathering. The central bank kept its main interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent.

Asian stocks rose, with a regional benchmark index heading for its highest close in a week, as reports on U.S. jobs and service industries beat expectations, easing concern the world’s biggest economy is slowing. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England also hold policy meetings today, after the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly cut interest rates on Oct. 2.

Nikkei 225 8,824.59 +77.72 +0.89%

S&P/ASX 200 4,452.4 +13.84 +0.31%

Shanghai Composite 2,086.17 +29.85 +1.45%

Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest carmaker by market value, climbed 3 percent in Tokyo.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances Holdings Ltd. advanced 3.7 percent in Wellington after directors of the refrigerator maker rejected a bid from China’s Haier Corp., saying it is too low.

Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second-biggest oil producer, slid 1 percent in Sydney as oil traded near a two-month low.

00:00 China Bank holiday -

03:30 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision - 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

03:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement -

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index August 93.0 93.6 93.6

05:00 Japan Coincident Index August 93.8 93.6 93.0

Change % Change Last

Gold 1,793 +13 +0.74%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,824.59 +77.72 +0.89%

S&P/ASX 200 4,452.4 +13.84 +0.31%

Shanghai Composite 2,086.17 +29.85 +1.45%

FTSE 100 5,827.78 +1.97 +0.03%

CAC 40 3,401.2 -4.82 -0.14%

DAX 7,305.21 -16.87 -0.23%

Dow 13,575 +80 +0.60%

Nasdaq 3,149 +14 +0.44%

S&P 500 1,461 +10 +0.69% 

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2955 +0,36%

GBP/USD $1,6192 +0,69%

USD/CHF Chf0,9305 -0,86%

USD/JPY Y78,49 0,00%

EUR/JPY Y102,16 +0,81%

GBP/JPY Y127,08 +0,70%

AUD/USD $1,0244 +0,24%

NZD/USD $0,8216 +0,27%

USD/CAD C$0,9804 -0,69%

00:00 China Bank holiday -

03:30 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision - 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

03:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement -

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index August 93.0 93.6

05:00 Japan Coincident Index August 93.8 93.6

07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves September 418.4

07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference -

08:00 Switzerland KOF Institute Economic Forecast IV quarter

09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (finally) Quarter II -0.2% -0.2%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (finally) Quarter II -0.5%

10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) August +0.5% -0.4%

10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) August -4.5% -4.3%

12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) August -2.3% -0.7%

12:30 Canada Unemployment rate September 7.3% 7.3%

12:30 Canada Employment September 34.3 11.9

12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate September 8.1% 8.2%

12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls September 96 111

12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings September 0.0% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Average workweek September 34.4 34.4

17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Elizabeth Duke Speaks -