'Even though it might not be a valid technical argument, history has proven that when it looks the worse things might take another route. This might be a dangerous bet as the trend is your friend but oversold stays oversold.'
That was the concluding sentence of my blog entry dated March 12th 2015. A day later the single currency set a new 12-year low against the greenback at USD 1.0461 and then started to climb. Currently the euro is trading at USD1.1033 -572 pips higher.
Right at the moment we have reached a very interesting level. Slightly above the intraday-high set after the latest FED policy meeting (that was sold off almost as fast as the level was reached) but below the last significant low at USD1.1097.
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