WEEKLY REVIEW: Outlook for the first interest rate hike by the Fed remains unclear
04.09.2015, 16:25

WEEKLY REVIEW: Outlook for the first interest rate hike by the Fed remains unclear

The U.S. Labor Department released the long-awaited labour market data today. The data was mixed. The U.S. economy added 173,000 jobs in August, missing expectations for a rise of 220,000 jobs, after a gain of 245,000 jobs in July. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 5.1% in August from 5.3% in July, exceeding expectations for a decline to 5.2%.

It is unclear if this data convince Fed officials to raise the interest rate this month. Officials' opinions remained varied.

I think it is likely that the Fed will not raise its interest rate this month just to wait and first to analyse which impact the recent market turbulences had on the U.S. economy.

The U.S. economic outlook also remains dependent on oil prices as U.S. oil companies made a significant contribution to the U.S. economy.

Market participants were cautious this week as it is unclear what will happen in China. Chinese markets were closed for a public holiday on Thursday and Friday.

Greece should turn again in focus as the snap election is approaching. The election will be held on September 20. The majority supporting Alexis Tsipras' Syriza party dwindles. It will need time to form a government. The implementation of the bailout obligations is likely to suffer.

Yesterday's comments by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi put the euro under pressure. He said that the central bank could extend its asset buying programme if needed, adding that the limit on sovereign bond ownership by the central bank will be raised to 33% from 25%. The ECB lowered its economic growth and inflation forecasts. Draghi pointed out that the central bank did not decide on the further stimulus measures yet.

The possible further monetary policy easing could have a negative impact on the euro if additionally the economic data from the Eurozone will not met expectations of market participants.

It is likely that the currency pair EURUSD will test the level at $1.1200, maybe even the level of $1.1300, if the U.S. economic data will be negative and existence of positive news from the Eurozone.

If the U.S. economic will be better than expected or if there will be negative news from Greece or from the Eurozone, the currency pair EURUSD may test the level of $1.1000 or $1.0900.

  • Name: Konstantin Meinhardt
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