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- Failure to agree on trade deal with U.S. could have bigger ramifications on China and the global economy - TDS
Failure to agree on trade deal with U.S. could have bigger ramifications on China and the global economy - TDS
Analysts at TD Securities note that the U.S. President Trump's tweets threatening to raise tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods hit EM assets, with equities sliding, while in FX, CNH bore the brunt of losses.
- We think Trump may be emboldened by the strength of the US economy, and firm US equities. As such the threats could amount to a negotiating ploy.
- The immediate reaction has been for China's delegation to reportedly delay or cancel its trip to Washington.
- China is not as vulnerable as it was just a few months ago. Even so, higher tariffs could put recent signs of growth stabilization under threat.
- The stakes are now clearly much higher. Failure to agree on a deal could have bigger ramifications on China and the global economy.
- After the initial bout of pressure, consolidation is likely until we see some form of clarification.
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