Eurozone business climate indicator declined more than forecast in July

European Commission said, in July 2019, the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area decreased markedly (by 0.29 points to -0.12). Managers’ assessments of past production, their production expectations, as well as their views on overall and export order books deteriorated. Only their assessment of the level of stocks improved.

In July 2019, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) decreased slightly in both the euro area (by 0.6 points to 102.7) and the EU (by -0.3 points to 102.0).

The deterioration of euro-area sentiment resulted from lower confidence in industry, services, retail trade and construction, while confidence improved slightly among consumers.

Industry confidence registered a marked decrease (−1.8), which moved the indicator clearly below its long-term average. The slight decline in services confidence (−0.4) was driven by managers' more pessimistic demand expectations, while their views on the past business situation and past demand remained broadly unchanged. The slight increase in consumer confidence (+0.6) reflected households’ more positive assessments of their past financial situation and their expectations about the general economic situation.

The decline in retail trade confidence (−0.8) resulted from more negative views on the present business situation as well as more negative expectations. The marked decrease in construction confidence (−2.6) resulted from a sharp decrease in managers' employment expectations, and a strong worsening of their assessment of the level of order books. Finally, financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) decreased markedly (−4.6), reflecting strong deterioration in managers' demand expectations and their assessment of the past business situation, while appraisals of past demand improved.