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- Goldman Sachs sees no trade deal before 2020 U.S. election, now expects three rate cuts
Goldman Sachs sees no trade deal before 2020 U.S. election, now expects three rate cuts
Goldman Sachs said it no longer expects the United States and China to agree on a deal to end their prolonged trade dispute before the November 2020 presidential election as policymakers from the world's largest economies are "taking a harder line".
The bank now expects two back-to-back rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) "in light of growing trade policy risks, market expectations for much deeper rate cuts, and an increase in global risk related to the possibility of a no-deal Brexit".
The comment came after U.S. President Donald Trump said last week he would impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese imports from Sept. 1,
The move by Washington "suggests that both sides in the trade conflict are taking a harder line, reducing the odds of a resolution in the near term," Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note. Hatzius said expects the new set of tariffs to remain in place on election day in November.
Hatzius sees a 75% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in September and a 50% chance in October, following the reduction last week. He had previously only expected two cuts this year.
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