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- Canada's economy adds 53k jobs in September – TD Securities
Canada's economy adds 53k jobs in September – TD Securities
Analysts at TD Securities note that the Canadian economy added 53k jobs in September, beating the market consensus for +7.5k.
- “Details were largely upbeat with full time employment (+70k) leading job growth while the one wrinkle was a modest pullback in private employment (-21k). However, this comes on the heels of outsized gains during August, and private employment is still 70k higher over the last two months.
- The robust job growth was not the only positive element of this report; the unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in September while wage growth firmed back to 4.3% y/y (from 3.8%). The former is even more impressive when considering the participation rate has increased 1.4pp from last October and more comprehensive measures that capture discouraged and involuntary part-time workers showed similar improvement, with the R8 rate falling from 8.1% to 7.8% (pre-crisis low was 8.3%). Hours worked fell by 0.3% m/m, but that shouldn't take much away from the overall strength of this report.
- We don't think these numbers are sustainable, and we don't think they tell the full story for the Canadian economy - but they do underscore the different policy outlooks facing the BoC and Fed. Robust labour market performance gives the BoC a cushion the Fed doesn't enjoy, and will let the BoC lag behind the Fed for a longer period than would normally be plausible.
- We continue to look for an ease in January, predicated on a weaker global outlook.”
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