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- Saudi Arabia, Russia oil dispute is about the ‘restructuring of supply,’ says a strategist
Saudi Arabia, Russia oil dispute is about the ‘restructuring of supply,’ says a strategist
CNBC reports that the oil price rout this week may be a chance for the industry to restructure and could ultimately be a positive for the market, a strategist said.
The oil markets tanked Monday, plunging over 20% following a disagreement on production cuts between OPEC and its allies. Russia declined to lower output last week, and Saudi Arabia announced Saturday that it will offer discounts to its official selling prices next month. The kingdom is also reportedly planning to raise production.
Despite the depressed prices, the response from Saudi Arabia and Russia is "long-term rational" for them, said Damien Courvalin, head of energy research at Goldman Sachs.
Low-cost producers like Saudi Arabia have been supporting prices for years through supply cuts - which in turn boosted higher-cost producers like shale companies in the U.S. and enabled even greater output from the shale producers.
The latest market developments will allow for the restructuring and rebalancing of supply to take place, Courvalin told CNBC, who expects oil prices to stay low - around $30 a barrel for Brent crude - for two quarters.
"This is more about a restructuring of supply - less activity by high-cost producers for low-cost producers to roll," said Courvalin.
And there will be a point at which there will be a "material change" in the landscape where overall production would fall due to low prices. A higher price for crude will then emerge as supply falls.
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