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- S&P 500: Things get murky – BMO
S&P 500: Things get murky – BMO
FXStreet notes that, as the early earnings results show, while many sectors are clearly suffering, there are few pockets out there that are thriving. The S&P 500 dipped 1.3% last week, Robert Kavcic from the Bank of Montreal reports.
“Earnings results continue to roll out, and the overall tone is downbeat, as you'd expect, with S&P 500 profits on track to fall about 20% y/y in Q1.”
“The consensus bottom-up expectation is for S&P 500 earnings to drop roughly 13% y/y. Indeed, according to Bloomberg’s current tally, with about a quarter of the S&P 500 reporting, aggregate earnings are actually tracking down 16% y/y. A total of 68% have topped expectations, which is running lower than normal (typically in the mid-70s range).”
“Expectations for Q2 continue to get ratcheted down. What was thought to be 7% y/y growth at the start of the year has now been scaled down to nearly -30% y/y for Q2.”
“The point is that traditional valuation metrics can lose much of their value when we’re in the pit of an earnings recession, and that’s just about where we are.”
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